GraphSubDetector: Time Series Subsequence Anomaly Detection via Density-Aware Adaptive Graph Neural Network

Time series subsequence anomaly detection is an important task in a large variety of real-world applications ranging from health monitoring to AIOps, and is challenging due to the following reasons: 1) how to effectively learn complex dynamics and dependencies in time series; 2) diverse and complicated anomalous subsequences as well as the inherent variance and noise of normal patterns; 3) how to determine the proper subsequence length for effective detection, which is a required parameter for many existing algorithms. In this paper, we present a novel approach to subsequence anomaly detection, namely GraphSubDetector. First, it adaptively learns the appropriate subsequence length with a length selection mechanism that highlights the characteristics of both normal and anomalous patterns. Second, we propose a density-aware adaptive graph neural network (DAGNN), which can generate further robust representations against variance of normal data for anomaly detection by message passing between subsequences. The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm, which achieves superior performance on multiple time series anomaly benchmark datasets compared to state-of-the-art algorithms.

NetSafe: Exploring the Topological Safety of Multi-agent Networks

Large language models (LLMs) have empowered nodes within multi-agent networks with intelligence, showing growing applications in both academia and industry. However, how to prevent these networks from generating malicious information remains unexplored with previous research on single LLM's safety be challenging to transfer. In this paper, we focus on the safety of multi-agent networks from a topological perspective, investigating which topological properties contribute to safer networks. To this end, we propose a general framework, NetSafe along with an iterative RelCom interaction to unify existing diverse LLM-based agent frameworks, laying the foundation for generalized topological safety research. We identify several critical phenomena when multi-agent networks are exposed to attacks involving misinformation, bias, and harmful information, termed as Agent Hallucination and Aggregation Safety. Furthermore, we find that highly connected networks are more susceptible to the spread of adversarial attacks, with task performance in a Star Graph Topology decreasing by 29.7%. Besides, our proposed static metrics aligned more closely with real-world dynamic evaluations than traditional graph-theoretic metrics, indicating that networks with greater average distances from attackers exhibit enhanced safety. In conclusion, our work introduces a new topological perspective on the safety of LLM-based multi-agent networks and discovers several unreported phenomena, paving the way for future research to explore the safety of such networks.

Abnormality Forecasting: Time Series Anomaly Prediction via Future Context Modeling

Identifying anomalies from time series data plays an important role in various fields such as infrastructure security, intelligent operation and maintenance, and space exploration. Current research focuses on detecting the anomalies after they occur, which can lead to significant financial/reputation loss or infrastructure damage. In this work we instead study a more practical yet very challenging problem, time series anomaly prediction, aiming at providing early warnings for abnormal events before their occurrence. To tackle this problem, we introduce a novel principled approach, namely future context modeling (FCM). Its key insight is that the future abnormal events in a target window can be accurately predicted if their preceding observation window exhibits any subtle difference to normal data. To effectively capture such differences, FCM first leverages long-term forecasting models to generate a discriminative future context based on the observation data, aiming to amplify those subtle but unusual difference. It then models a normality correlation of the observation data with the forecasting future context to complement the normality modeling of the observation data in foreseeing possible abnormality in the target window. A joint variate-time attention learning is also introduced in FCM to leverage both temporal signals and features of the time series data for more discriminative normality modeling in the aforementioned two views. Comprehensive experiments on five datasets demonstrate that FCM gains good recall rate (70\%+) on multiple datasets and significantly outperforms all baselines in F1 score. Code is available at https://github.com/mala-lab/FCM.

FoundTS: Comprehensive and Unified Benchmarking of Foundation Models for Time Series Forecasting

Time Series Forecasting (TSF) is key functionality in numerous fields, including in finance, weather services, and energy management. While TSF methods are emerging these days, many of them require domain-specific data collection and model training and struggle with poor generalization performance on new domains. Foundation models aim to overcome this limitation. Pre-trained on large-scale language or time series data, they exhibit promising inferencing capabilities in new or unseen data. This has spurred a surge in new TSF foundation models. We propose a new benchmark, FoundTS, to enable thorough and fair evaluation and comparison of such models. FoundTS covers a variety of TSF foundation models, including those based on large language models and those pretrained on time series. Next, FoundTS supports different forecasting strategies, including zero-shot, few-shot, and full-shot, thereby facilitating more thorough evaluations. Finally, FoundTS offers a pipeline that standardizes evaluation processes such as dataset splitting, loading, normalization, and few-shot sampling, thereby facilitating fair evaluations. Building on this, we report on an extensive evaluation of TSF foundation models on a broad range of datasets from diverse domains and with different statistical characteristics. Specifically, we identify pros and cons and inherent limitations of existing foundation models, and we identify directions for future model design. We make our code and datasets available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/FoundTS-C2B0.

Task-oriented Time Series Imputation Evaluation via Generalized Representers

Time series analysis is widely used in many fields such as power energy, economics, and transportation, including different tasks such as forecasting, anomaly detection, classification, etc. Missing values are widely observed in these tasks, and often leading to unpredictable negative effects on existing methods, hindering their further application. In response to this situation, existing time series imputation methods mainly focus on restoring sequences based on their data characteristics, while ignoring the performance of the restored sequences in downstream tasks. Considering different requirements of downstream tasks (e.g., forecasting), this paper proposes an efficient downstream task-oriented time series imputation evaluation approach. By combining time series imputation with neural network models used for downstream tasks, the gain of different imputation strategies on downstream tasks is estimated without retraining, and the most favorable imputation value for downstream tasks is given by combining different imputation strategies according to the estimated gain.

Toward Physics-guided Time Series Embedding

In various scientific and engineering fields, the primary research areas have revolved around physics-based dynamical systems modeling and data-driven time series analysis. According to the embedding theory, dynamical systems and time series can be mutually transformed using observation functions and physical reconstruction techniques. Based on this, we propose Embedding Duality Theory, where the parameterized embedding layer essentially provides a linear estimation of the non-linear time series dynamics. This theory enables us to bypass the parameterized embedding layer and directly employ physical reconstruction techniques to acquire a data embedding representation. Utilizing physical priors results in a 10X reduction in parameters, a 3X increase in speed, and maximum performance boosts of 18% in expert, 22% in few-shot, and 53\% in zero-shot tasks without any hyper-parameter tuning. All methods are encapsulated as a plug-and-play module

ErrorRadar: Benchmarking Complex Mathematical Reasoning of Multimodal Large Language Models Via Error Detection

As the field of Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) continues to evolve, their potential to revolutionize artificial intelligence is particularly promising, especially in addressing mathematical reasoning tasks. Current mathematical benchmarks predominantly focus on evaluating MLLMs' problem-solving ability, yet there is a crucial gap in addressing more complex scenarios such as error detection, for enhancing reasoning capability in complicated settings. To fill this gap, we formally formulate the new task: multimodal error detection, and introduce ErrorRadar, the first benchmark designed to assess MLLMs' capabilities in such a task. ErrorRadar evaluates two sub-tasks: error step identification and error categorization, providing a comprehensive framework for evaluating MLLMs' complex mathematical reasoning ability. It consists of 2,500 high-quality multimodal K-12 mathematical problems, collected from real-world student interactions in an educational organization, with rigorous annotation and rich metadata such as problem type and error category. Through extensive experiments, we evaluated both open-source and closed-source representative MLLMs, benchmarking their performance against educational expert evaluators. Results indicate significant challenges still remain, as GPT-4o with best performance is still around 10% behind human evaluation. The dataset will be available upon acceptance.

Mind Scramble: Unveiling Large Language Model Psychology Via Typoglycemia

Research into the external behaviors and internal mechanisms of large language models (LLMs) has shown promise in addressing complex tasks in the physical world. Studies suggest that powerful LLMs, like GPT-4, are beginning to exhibit human-like cognitive abilities, including planning, reasoning, and reflection. In this paper, we introduce a research line and methodology called LLM Psychology, leveraging human psychology experiments to investigate the cognitive behaviors and mechanisms of LLMs. We migrate the Typoglycemia phenomenon from psychology to explore the "mind" of LLMs. Unlike human brains, which rely on context and word patterns to comprehend scrambled text, LLMs use distinct encoding and decoding processes. Through Typoglycemia experiments at the character, word, and sentence levels, we observe: (I) LLMs demonstrate human-like behaviors on a macro scale, such as lower task accuracy and higher token/time consumption; (II) LLMs exhibit varying robustness to scrambled input, making Typoglycemia a benchmark for model evaluation without new datasets; (III) Different task types have varying impacts, with complex logical tasks (e.g., math) being more challenging in scrambled form; (IV) Each LLM has a unique and consistent "cognitive pattern" across tasks, revealing general mechanisms in its psychology process. We provide an in-depth analysis of hidden layers to explain these phenomena, paving the way for future research in LLM Psychology and deeper interpretability.

Evolving Multi-Scale Normalization for Time Series Forecasting under Distribution Shifts

Complex distribution shifts are the main obstacle to achieving accurate long-term time series forecasting. Several efforts have been conducted to capture the distribution characteristics and propose adaptive normalization techniques to alleviate the influence of distribution shifts. However, these methods neglect the intricate distribution dynamics observed from various scales and the evolving functions of distribution dynamics and normalized mapping relationships. To this end, we propose a novel model-agnostic Evolving Multi-Scale Normalization (EvoMSN) framework to tackle the distribution shift problem. Flexible normalization and denormalization are proposed based on the multi-scale statistics prediction module and adaptive ensembling. An evolving optimization strategy is designed to update the forecasting model and statistics prediction module collaboratively to track the shifting distributions. We evaluate the effectiveness of EvoMSN in improving the performance of five mainstream forecasting methods on benchmark datasets and also show its superiority compared to existing advanced normalization and online learning approaches. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/qindalin/EvoMSN.

Time-MoE: Billion-Scale Time Series Foundation Models with Mixture of Experts

Deep learning for time series forecasting has seen significant advancements over the past decades. However, despite the success of large-scale pre-training in language and vision domains, pre-trained time series models remain limited in scale and operate at a high cost, hindering the development of larger capable forecasting models in real-world applications. In response, we introduce Time-MoE, a scalable and unified architecture designed to pre-train larger, more capable forecasting foundation models while reducing inference costs. By leveraging a sparse mixture-of-experts (MoE) design, Time-MoE enhances computational efficiency by activating only a subset of networks for each prediction, reducing computational load while maintaining high model capacity. This allows Time-MoE to scale effectively without a corresponding increase in inference costs. Time-MoE comprises a family of decoder-only transformer models that operate in an auto-regressive manner and support flexible forecasting horizons with varying input context lengths. We pre-trained these models on our newly introduced large-scale data Time-300B, which spans over 9 domains and encompassing over 300 billion time points. For the first time, we scaled a time series foundation model up to 2.4 billion parameters, achieving significantly improved forecasting precision. Our results validate the applicability of scaling laws for training tokens and model size in the context of time series forecasting. Compared to dense models with the same number of activated parameters or equivalent computation budgets, our models consistently outperform them by large margin. These advancements position Time-MoE as a state-of-the-art solution for tackling real-world time series forecasting challenges with superior capability, efficiency, and flexibility.