Empowering Time Series Analysis with Synthetic Data: A Survey and Outlook in the Era of Foundation Models

Time series analysis is crucial for understanding dynamics of complex systems. Recent advances in foundation models have led to task-agnostic Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) and Large Language Model-based Time Series Models (TSLLMs), enabling generalized learning and integrating contextual information. However, their success depends on large, diverse, and high-quality datasets, which are challenging to build due to regulatory, diversity, quality, and quantity constraints. Synthetic data emerge as a viable solution, addressing these challenges by offering scalable, unbiased, and high-quality alternatives. This survey provides a comprehensive review of synthetic data for TSFMs and TSLLMs, analyzing data generation strategies, their role in model pretraining, fine-tuning, and evaluation, and identifying future research directions.

PersonaBench: Evaluating AI Models on Understanding Personal Information through Accessing (Synthetic) Private User Data

Personalization is critical in AI assistants, particularly in the context of private AI models that work with individual users. A key scenario in this domain involves enabling AI models to access and interpret a user's private data (e.g., conversation history, user-AI interactions, app usage) to understand personal details such as biographical information, preferences, and social connections. However, due to the sensitive nature of such data, there are no publicly available datasets that allow us to assess an AI model's ability to understand users through direct access to personal information. To address this gap, we introduce a synthetic data generation pipeline that creates diverse, realistic user profiles and private documents simulating human activities. Leveraging this synthetic data, we present PersonaBench, a benchmark designed to evaluate AI models' performance in understanding personal information derived from simulated private user data. We evaluate Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) pipelines using questions directly related to a user's personal information, supported by the relevant private documents provided to the models. Our results reveal that current retrieval-augmented AI models struggle to answer private questions by extracting personal information from user documents, highlighting the need for improved methodologies to enhance personalization capabilities in AI.

BOLT: Bootstrap Long Chain-of-Thought in Language Models without Distillation

Large language models (LLMs), such as o1 from OpenAI, have demonstrated remarkable reasoning capabilities. o1 generates a long chain-of-thought (LongCoT) before answering a question. LongCoT allows LLMs to analyze problems, devise plans, reflect, and backtrack effectively. These actions empower LLM to solve complex problems. After the release of o1, many teams have attempted to replicate its LongCoT and reasoning capabilities. In terms of methods, they primarily rely on knowledge distillation with data from existing models with LongCoT capacities (e.g., OpenAI-o1, Qwen-QwQ, DeepSeek-R1-Preview), leaving significant uncertainties on systematically developing such reasoning abilities. In terms of data domains, these works focus narrowly on math while a few others include coding, limiting their generalizability. This paper introduces a novel approach to enable LLM's LongCoT capacity without distillation from o1-like models or expensive human annotations, where we bootstrap LongCoT (BOLT) from a standard instruct model. BOLT involves three stages: 1) LongCoT data bootstrapping with in-context learning on a standard instruct model; 2) LongCoT supervised finetuning; 3) online training to further refine LongCoT capacities. In BOLT, only a few in-context examples need to be constructed during the bootstrapping stage; in our experiments, we created 10 examples, demonstrating the feasibility of this approach. We use Llama-3.1-70B-Instruct to bootstrap LongCoT and apply our method to various model scales (7B, 8B, 70B). We achieve impressive performance on a variety of benchmarks, Arena-Hard, MT-Bench, WildBench, ZebraLogic, MATH500, which evaluate diverse task-solving and reasoning capabilities.

Reward-Guided Speculative Decoding for Efficient LLM Reasoning

We introduce Reward-Guided Speculative Decoding (RSD), a novel framework aimed at improving the efficiency of inference in large language models (LLMs). RSD synergistically combines a lightweight draft model with a more powerful target model, incorporating a controlled bias to prioritize high-reward outputs, in contrast to existing speculative decoding methods that enforce strict unbiasedness. RSD employs a process reward model to evaluate intermediate decoding steps and dynamically decide whether to invoke the target model, optimizing the trade-off between computational cost and output quality. We theoretically demonstrate that a threshold-based mixture strategy achieves an optimal balance between resource utilization and performance. Extensive evaluations on challenging reasoning benchmarks, including Olympiad-level tasks, show that RSD delivers significant efficiency gains against decoding with the target model only (up to 4.4x fewer FLOPs), while achieving significant better accuracy than parallel decoding method on average (up to +3.5). These results highlight RSD as a robust and cost-effective approach for deploying LLMs in resource-intensive scenarios.

ViUniT: Visual Unit Tests for More Robust Visual Programming

Programming based approaches to reasoning tasks have substantially expanded the types of questions models can answer about visual scenes. Yet on benchmark visual reasoning data, when models answer correctly, they produce incorrect programs 33% of the time. These models are often right for the wrong reasons and risk unexpected failures on new data. Unit tests play a foundational role in ensuring code correctness and could be used to repair such failures. We propose Visual Unit Testing (ViUniT), a framework to improve the reliability of visual programs by automatically generating unit tests. In our framework, a unit test is represented as a novel image and answer pair meant to verify the logical correctness of a program produced for a given query. Our method leverages a language model to create unit tests in the form of image descriptions and expected answers and image synthesis to produce corresponding images. We conduct a comprehensive analysis of what constitutes an effective visual unit test suite, exploring unit test generation, sampling strategies, image generation methods, and varying the number of programs and unit tests. Additionally, we introduce four applications of visual unit tests: best program selection, answer refusal, re-prompting, and unsupervised reward formulations for reinforcement learning. Experiments with two models across three datasets in visual question answering and image-text matching demonstrate that ViUniT improves model performance by 11.4%. Notably, it enables 7B open-source models to outperform gpt-4o-mini by an average of 7.7% and reduces the occurrence of programs that are correct for the wrong reasons by 40%.

TACO: Learning Multi-modal Action Models with Synthetic Chains-of-Thought-and-Action

While open-source multi-modal language models perform well on simple question answering tasks, they often fail on complex questions that require multiple capabilities, such as fine-grained recognition, visual grounding, and reasoning, and that demand multi-step solutions. We present TACO, a family of multi-modal large action models designed to improve performance on such complex, multi-step, and multi-modal tasks. During inference, TACO produces chains-of-thought-and-action (CoTA), executes intermediate steps by invoking external tools such as OCR, depth estimation and calculator, then integrates both the thoughts and action outputs to produce coherent responses. To train TACO, we create a large dataset of over 1M synthetic CoTA traces generated with GPT-4o and Python programs. We then experiment with various data filtering and mixing techniques and obtain a final subset of 293K high-quality CoTA examples. This dataset enables TACO to learn complex reasoning and action paths, surpassing existing models trained on instruction tuning data with only direct answers. Our model TACO outperforms the instruction-tuned baseline across 8 benchmarks, achieving a 3.6% improvement on average, with gains of up to 15% in MMVet tasks involving OCR, mathematical reasoning, and spatial reasoning. Training on high-quality CoTA traces sets a new standard for complex multi-modal reasoning, highlighting the need for structured, multi-step instruction tuning in advancing open-source mutli-modal models' capabilities.

CodeXEmbed: A Generalist Embedding Model Family for Multiligual and Multi-task Code Retrieval

Despite the success of text retrieval in many NLP tasks, code retrieval remains a largely underexplored area. Most text retrieval systems are tailored for natural language queries, often neglecting the specific challenges of retrieving code. This gap leaves existing models unable to effectively capture the diversity of programming languages and tasks across different domains, highlighting the need for more focused research in code retrieval. To address this, we introduce CodeXEmbed, a family of large-scale code embedding models ranging from 400M to 7B parameters. Our novel training pipeline unifies multiple programming languages and transforms various code-related tasks into a common retrieval framework, enhancing model generalizability and retrieval performance. Our 7B model sets a new state-of-the-art (SOTA) in code retrieval, outperforming the previous leading model, Voyage-Code, by over 20% on CoIR benchmark. In addition to excelling in code retrieval, our models demonstrate competitive performance on the widely adopted BeIR text retrieval benchmark, offering versatility across domains. Experimental results demonstrate that improving retrieval performance significantly enhances end-to-end Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) performance for code-related tasks.

BLIP3-KALE: Knowledge Augmented Large-Scale Dense Captions

We introduce BLIP3-KALE, a dataset of 218 million image-text pairs that bridges the gap between descriptive synthetic captions and factual web-scale alt-text. KALE augments synthetic dense image captions with web-scale alt-text to generate factually grounded image captions. Our two-stage approach leverages large vision-language models and language models to create knowledge-augmented captions, which are then used to train a specialized VLM for scaling up the dataset. We train vision-language models on KALE and demonstrate improvements on vision-language tasks. Our experiments show the utility of KALE for training more capable and knowledgeable multimodal models. We release the KALE dataset at https://huggingface.co/datasets/Salesforce/blip3-kale

CodeTree: Agent-guided Tree Search for Code Generation with Large Language Models

Pre-trained on massive amounts of code and text data, large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable achievements in performing code generation tasks. With additional execution-based feedback, these models can act as agents with capabilities to self-refine and improve generated code autonomously. However, on challenging coding tasks with extremely large search space, current agentic approaches still struggle with multi-stage planning, generating, and debugging. To address this problem, we propose CodeTree, a framework for LLM agents to efficiently explore the search space in different stages of the code generation process. Specifically, we adopted a unified tree structure to explicitly explore different coding strategies, generate corresponding coding solutions, and subsequently refine the solutions. In each stage, critical decision-making (ranking, termination, expanding) of the exploration process is guided by both the environmental execution-based feedback and LLM-agent-generated feedback. We comprehensively evaluated CodeTree on 7 code generation benchmarks and demonstrated the significant performance gains of CodeTree against strong baselines. Using GPT-4o as the base model, we consistently achieved top results of 95.1 on HumanEval, 98.7 on MBPP, and 43.0 on CodeContests. On the challenging SWEBench benchmark, our approach led to significant performance gains.

Language Models are Hidden Reasoners: Unlocking Latent Reasoning Capabilities via Self-Rewarding

Large language models (LLMs) have shown impressive capabilities, but still struggle with complex reasoning tasks requiring multiple steps. While prompt-based methods like Chain-of-Thought (CoT) can improve LLM reasoning at inference time, optimizing reasoning capabilities during training remains challenging. We introduce LaTent Reasoning Optimization (LaTRO), a principled framework that formulates reasoning as sampling from a latent distribution and optimizes it via variational approaches. LaTRO enables LLMs to concurrently improve both their reasoning process and ability to evaluate reasoning quality, without requiring external feedback or reward models. We validate LaTRO through experiments on GSM8K and ARC-Challenge datasets using multiple model architectures. On GSM8K, LaTRO improves zero-shot accuracy by an average of 12.5% over base models and 9.6% over supervised fine-tuning across Phi-3.5-mini, Mistral-7B, and Llama-3.1-8B. Our findings suggest that pre-trained LLMs possess latent reasoning capabilities that can be unlocked and enhanced through our proposed optimization approach in a self-improvement manner. The code of LaTRO is available at \url{https://github.com/SalesforceAIResearch/LaTRO}.