When AI Navigates the Fog of War

Can AI reason about a war before its trajectory becomes historically obvious? Analyzing this capability is difficult because retrospective geopolitical prediction is heavily confounded by training-data leakage. We address this challenge through a temporally grounded case study of the early stages of the 2026 Middle East conflict, which unfolded after the training cutoff of current frontier models. We construct 11 critical temporal nodes, 42 node-specific verifiable questions, and 5 general exploratory questions, requiring models to reason only from information that would have been publicly available at each moment. This design substantially mitigates training-data leakage concerns, creating a setting well-suited for studying how models analyze an unfolding crisis under the fog of war, and provides, to our knowledge, the first temporally grounded analysis of LLM reasoning in an ongoing geopolitical conflict. Our analysis reveals three main findings. First, current state-of-the-art large language models often display a striking degree of strategic realism, reasoning beyond surface rhetoric toward deeper structural incentives. Second, this capability is uneven across domains: models are more reliable in economically and logistically structured settings than in politically ambiguous multi-actor environments. Finally, model narratives evolve over time, shifting from early expectations of rapid containment toward more systemic accounts of regional entrenchment and attritional de-escalation. Since the conflict remains ongoing at the time of writing, this work can serve as an archival snapshot of model reasoning during an unfolding geopolitical crisis, enabling future studies without the hindsight bias of retrospective analysis.

WestWorld: A Knowledge-Encoded Scalable Trajectory World Model for Diverse Robotic Systems

Trajectory world models play a crucial role in robotic dynamics learning, planning, and control. While recent works have explored trajectory world models for diverse robotic systems, they struggle to scale to a large number of distinct system dynamics and overlook domain knowledge of physical structures. To address these limitations, we introduce WestWorld, a knoWledge-Encoded Scalable Trajectory World model for diverse robotic systems. To tackle the scalability challenge, we propose a novel system-aware Mixture-of-Experts (Sys-MoE) that dynamically combines and routes specialized experts for different robotic systems via a learnable system embedding. To further enhance zero-shot generalization, we incorporate domain knowledge of robot physical structures by introducing a structural embedding that aligns trajectory representations with morphological information. After pretraining on 89 complex environments spanning diverse morphologies across both simulation and real-world settings, WestWorld achieves significant improvements over competitive baselines in zero- and few-shot trajectory prediction. Additionally, it shows strong scalability across a wide range of robotic environments and significantly improves performance on downstream model-based control for different robots. Finally, we deploy our model on a real-world Unitree Go1, where it demonstrates stable locomotion performance (see our demo on the website: https://westworldrobot.github.io/). The code will be available upon publication.

InfoFlow KV: Information-Flow-Aware KV Recomputation for Long Context

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) for long-context question answering is bottlenecked by inference-time prefilling over large retrieved contexts. A common strategy is to precompute key-value (KV) caches for individual documents and selectively recompute a small subset of tokens to restore global causal dependencies, but existing methods rely on heuristics or representation discrepancies without modeling whether selected tokens can effectively influence generation. We cast selective KV recomputation as an information flow problem and show that a simple attention-norm signal from the query reliably identifies tokens that are both semantically relevant and structurally positioned to propagate information, when computed under an inference-consistent RoPE geometry. We therefore reconstruct global positional assignments for retrieved chunks and introduce an information-flow-guided chunk reordering strategy. Experiments on LLM and VLM benchmarks demonstrate consistent gains over prior methods under comparable efficiency budgets.

Code2Math: Can Your Code Agent Effectively Evolve Math Problems Through Exploration?

As large language models (LLMs) advance their mathematical capabilities toward the IMO level, the scarcity of challenging, high-quality problems for training and evaluation has become a significant bottleneck. Simultaneously, recent code agents have demonstrated sophisticated skills in agentic coding and reasoning, suggesting that code execution can serve as a scalable environment for mathematical experimentation. In this paper, we investigate the potential of code agents to autonomously evolve existing math problems into more complex variations. We introduce a multi-agent framework designed to perform problem evolution while validating the solvability and increased difficulty of the generated problems. Our experiments demonstrate that, given sufficient test-time exploration, code agents can synthesize new, solvable problems that are structurally distinct from and more challenging than the originals. This work provides empirical evidence that code-driven agents can serve as a viable mechanism for synthesizing high-difficulty mathematical reasoning problems within scalable computational environments. Our data is available at https://github.com/TarferSoul/Code2Math.

Does Socialization Emerge in AI Agent Society? A Case Study of Moltbook

As large language model agents increasingly populate networked environments, a fundamental question arises: do artificial intelligence (AI) agent societies undergo convergence dynamics similar to human social systems? Lately, Moltbook approximates a plausible future scenario in which autonomous agents participate in an open-ended, continuously evolving online society. We present the first large-scale systemic diagnosis of this AI agent society. Beyond static observation, we introduce a quantitative diagnostic framework for dynamic evolution in AI agent societies, measuring semantic stabilization, lexical turnover, individual inertia, influence persistence, and collective consensus. Our analysis reveals a system in dynamic balance in Moltbook: while global semantic averages stabilize rapidly, individual agents retain high diversity and persistent lexical turnover, defying homogenization. However, agents exhibit strong individual inertia and minimal adaptive response to interaction partners, preventing mutual influence and consensus. Consequently, influence remains transient with no persistent supernodes, and the society fails to develop stable collective influence anchors due to the absence of shared social memory. These findings demonstrate that scale and interaction density alone are insufficient to induce socialization, providing actionable design and analysis principles for upcoming next-generation AI agent societies.

What does RL improve for Visual Reasoning? A Frankenstein-Style Analysis

Reinforcement learning (RL) with verifiable rewards has become a standard post-training stage for boosting visual reasoning in vision-language models, yet it remains unclear what capabilities RL actually improves compared with supervised fine-tuning as cold-start initialization (IN). End-to-end benchmark gains conflate multiple factors, making it difficult to attribute improvements to specific skills. To bridge the gap, we propose a Frankenstein-style analysis framework including: (i) functional localization via causal probing; (ii) update characterization via parameter comparison; and (iii) transferability test via model merging. Instead, RL induces a consistent inference-time shift primarily in mid-to-late layers, and these mid-to-late refinements are both transferable (via merging) and necessary (via freezing) for RL gains. Overall, our results suggest that RL's reliable contribution in visual reasoning is not a uniform enhancement of visual perception, but a systematic refinement of mid-to-late transformer computation that improves vision-to-reasoning alignment and reasoning performance, highlighting the limitations of benchmark-only evaluation for understanding multimodal reasoning improvements.

Neuro-Symbolic Synergy for Interactive World Modeling

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit strong general-purpose reasoning capabilities, yet they frequently hallucinate when used as world models (WMs), where strict compliance with deterministic transition rules--particularly in corner cases--is essential. In contrast, Symbolic WMs provide logical consistency but lack semantic expressivity. To bridge this gap, we propose Neuro-Symbolic Synergy (NeSyS), a framework that integrates the probabilistic semantic priors of LLMs with executable symbolic rules to achieve both expressivity and robustness. NeSyS alternates training between the two models using trajectories inadequately explained by the other. Unlike rule-based prompting, the symbolic WM directly constrains the LLM by modifying its output probability distribution. The neural WM is fine-tuned only on trajectories not covered by symbolic rules, reducing training data by 50% without loss of accuracy. Extensive experiments on three distinct interactive environments, i.e., ScienceWorld, Webshop, and Plancraft, demonstrate NeSyS's consistent advantages over baselines in both WM prediction accuracy and data efficiency.

Quantifying the Gap between Understanding and Generation within Unified Multimodal Models

Recent advances in unified multimodal models (UMM) have demonstrated remarkable progress in both understanding and generation tasks. However, whether these two capabilities are genuinely aligned and integrated within a single model remains unclear. To investigate this question, we introduce GapEval, a bidirectional benchmark designed to quantify the gap between understanding and generation capabilities, and quantitatively measure the cognitive coherence of the two "unified" directions. Each question can be answered in both modalities (image and text), enabling a symmetric evaluation of a model's bidirectional inference capability and cross-modal consistency. Experiments reveal a persistent gap between the two directions across a wide range of UMMs with different architectures, suggesting that current models achieve only surface-level unification rather than deep cognitive convergence of the two. To further explore the underlying mechanism, we conduct an empirical study from the perspective of knowledge manipulation to illustrate the underlying limitations. Our findings indicate that knowledge within UMMs often remains disjoint. The capability emergence and knowledge across modalities are unsynchronized, paving the way for further exploration.

TSRBench: A Comprehensive Multi-task Multi-modal Time Series Reasoning Benchmark for Generalist Models

Time series data is ubiquitous in real-world scenarios and crucial for critical applications ranging from energy management to traffic control. Consequently, the ability to reason over time series is a fundamental skill for generalist models to solve practical problems. However, this dimension is notably absent from existing benchmarks of generalist models. To bridge this gap, we introduce TSRBench, a comprehensive multi-modal benchmark designed to stress-test the full spectrum of time series reasoning capabilities. TSRBench features: i) a diverse set of 4125 problems from 14 domains, and is categorized into 4 major dimensions: Perception, Reasoning, Prediction, and Decision-Making. ii) 15 tasks from the 4 dimensions evaluating essential reasoning capabilities (e.g., numerical reasoning). Through extensive experiments, we evaluated over 30 leading proprietary and open-source LLMs, VLMs, and TSLLMs within TSRBench. Our findings reveal that: i) scaling laws hold for perception and reasoning but break down for prediction; ii) strong reasoning does not guarantee accurate context-aware forecasting, indicating a decoupling between semantic understanding and numerical prediction; and iii) despite the complementary nature of textual and visual represenations of time series as inputs, current multimodal models fail to effectively fuse them for reciprocal performance gains. TSRBench provides a standardized evaluation platform that not only highlights existing challenges but also offers valuable insights to advance generalist models. Our code and dataset are available at https://tsrbench.github.io/.

Schoenfeld's Anatomy of Mathematical Reasoning by Language Models

Large language models increasingly expose reasoning traces, yet their underlying cognitive structure and steps remain difficult to identify and analyze beyond surface-level statistics. We adopt Schoenfeld's Episode Theory as an inductive, intermediate-scale lens and introduce ThinkARM (Anatomy of Reasoning in Models), a scalable framework that explicitly abstracts reasoning traces into functional reasoning steps such as Analysis, Explore, Implement, Verify, etc. When applied to mathematical problem solving by diverse models, this abstraction reveals reproducible thinking dynamics and structural differences between reasoning and non-reasoning models, which are not apparent from token-level views. We further present two diagnostic case studies showing that exploration functions as a critical branching step associated with correctness, and that efficiency-oriented methods selectively suppress evaluative feedback steps rather than uniformly shortening responses. Together, our results demonstrate that episode-level representations make reasoning steps explicit, enabling systematic analysis of how reasoning is structured, stabilized, and altered in modern language models.