LeMoLE: LLM-Enhanced Mixture of Linear Experts for Time Series Forecasting

Recent research has shown that large language models (LLMs) can be effectively used for real-world time series forecasting due to their strong natural language understanding capabilities. However, aligning time series into semantic spaces of LLMs comes with high computational costs and inference complexity, particularly for long-range time series generation. Building on recent advancements in using linear models for time series, this paper introduces an LLM-enhanced mixture of linear experts for precise and efficient time series forecasting. This approach involves developing a mixture of linear experts with multiple lookback lengths and a new multimodal fusion mechanism. The use of a mixture of linear experts is efficient due to its simplicity, while the multimodal fusion mechanism adaptively combines multiple linear experts based on the learned features of the text modality from pre-trained large language models. In experiments, we rethink the need to align time series to LLMs by existing time-series large language models and further discuss their efficiency and effectiveness in time series forecasting. Our experimental results show that the proposed LeMoLE model presents lower prediction errors and higher computational efficiency than existing LLM models.

MCCoder: Streamlining Motion Control with LLM-Assisted Code Generation and Rigorous Verification

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown considerable promise in code generation. However, the automation sector, especially in motion control, continues to rely heavily on manual programming due to the complexity of tasks and critical safety considerations. In this domain, incorrect code execution can pose risks to both machinery and personnel, necessitating specialized expertise. To address these challenges, we introduce MCCoder, an LLM-powered system designed to generate code that addresses complex motion control tasks, with integrated soft-motion data verification. MCCoder enhances code generation through multitask decomposition, hybrid retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), and self-correction with a private motion library. Moreover, it supports data verification by logging detailed trajectory data and providing simulations and plots, allowing users to assess the accuracy of the generated code and bolstering confidence in LLM-based programming. To ensure robust validation, we propose MCEVAL, an evaluation dataset with metrics tailored to motion control tasks of varying difficulties. Experiments indicate that MCCoder improves performance by 11.61% overall and by 66.12% on complex tasks in MCEVAL dataset compared with base models with naive RAG. This system and dataset aim to facilitate the application of code generation in automation settings with strict safety requirements. MCCoder is publicly available at https://github.com/MCCodeAI/MCCoder.

Your Mixture-of-Experts LLM Is Secretly an Embedding Model For Free

While large language models (LLMs) excel on generation tasks, their decoder-only architecture often limits their potential as embedding models if no further representation finetuning is applied. Does this contradict their claim of generalists? To answer the question, we take a closer look at Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) LLMs. Our study shows that the expert routers in MoE LLMs can serve as an off-the-shelf embedding model with promising performance on a diverse class of embedding-focused tasks, without requiring any finetuning. Moreover, our extensive analysis shows that the MoE routing weights (RW) is complementary to the hidden state (HS) of LLMs, a widely-used embedding. Compared to HS, we find that RW is more robust to the choice of prompts and focuses on high-level semantics. Motivated by the analysis, we propose MoEE combining RW and HS, which achieves better performance than using either separately. Our exploration of their combination and prompting strategy shed several novel insights, e.g., a weighted sum of RW and HS similarities outperforms the similarity on their concatenation. Our experiments are conducted on 6 embedding tasks with 20 datasets from the Massive Text Embedding Benchmark (MTEB). The results demonstrate the significant improvement brought by MoEE to LLM-based embedding without further finetuning.

Hybrid Mamba for Few-Shot Segmentation

Many few-shot segmentation (FSS) methods use cross attention to fuse support foreground (FG) into query features, regardless of the quadratic complexity. A recent advance Mamba can also well capture intra-sequence dependencies, yet the complexity is only linear. Hence, we aim to devise a cross (attention-like) Mamba to capture inter-sequence dependencies for FSS. A simple idea is to scan on support features to selectively compress them into the hidden state, which is then used as the initial hidden state to sequentially scan query features. Nevertheless, it suffers from (1) support forgetting issue: query features will also gradually be compressed when scanning on them, so the support features in hidden state keep reducing, and many query pixels cannot fuse sufficient support features; (2) intra-class gap issue: query FG is essentially more similar to itself rather than to support FG, i.e., query may prefer not to fuse support features but their own ones from the hidden state, yet the success of FSS relies on the effective use of support information. To tackle them, we design a hybrid Mamba network (HMNet), including (1) a support recapped Mamba to periodically recap the support features when scanning query, so the hidden state can always contain rich support information; (2) a query intercepted Mamba to forbid the mutual interactions among query pixels, and encourage them to fuse more support features from the hidden state. Consequently, the support information is better utilized, leading to better performance. Extensive experiments have been conducted on two public benchmarks, showing the superiority of HMNet. The code is available at https://github.com/Sam1224/HMNet.

XTraffic: A Dataset Where Traffic Meets Incidents with Explainability and More

Long-separated research has been conducted on two highly correlated tracks: traffic and incidents. Traffic track witnesses complicating deep learning models, e.g., to push the prediction a few percent more accurate, and the incident track only studies the incidents alone, e.g., to infer the incident risk. We, for the first time, spatiotemporally aligned the two tracks in a large-scale region (16,972 traffic nodes) over the whole year of 2023: our XTraffic dataset includes traffic, i.e., time-series indexes on traffic flow, lane occupancy, and average vehicle speed, and incidents, whose records are spatiotemporally-aligned with traffic data, with seven different incident classes. Additionally, each node includes detailed physical and policy-level meta-attributes of lanes. Our data can revolutionalize traditional traffic-related tasks towards higher interpretability and practice: instead of traditional prediction or classification tasks, we conduct: (1) post-incident traffic forecasting to quantify the impact of different incidents on traffic indexes; (2) incident classification using traffic indexes to determine the incidents types for precautions measures; (3) global causal analysis among the traffic indexes, meta-attributes, and incidents to give high-level guidance of the interrelations of various factors; (4) local causal analysis within road nodes to examine how different incidents affect the road segments' relations. The dataset is available at http://xaitraffic.github.io.

Deep Causal Learning to Explain and Quantify The Geo-Tension's Impact on Natural Gas Market

Natural gas demand is a crucial factor for predicting natural gas prices and thus has a direct influence on the power system. However, existing methods face challenges in assessing the impact of shocks, such as the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war. In this context, we apply deep neural network-based Granger causality to identify important drivers of natural gas demand. Furthermore, the resulting dependencies are used to construct a counterfactual case without the outbreak of the war, providing a quantifiable estimate of the overall effect of the shock on various German energy sectors. The code and dataset are available at https://github.com/bonaldli/CausalEnergy.

GuideLight: "Industrial Solution" Guidance for More Practical Traffic Signal Control Agents

Currently, traffic signal control (TSC) methods based on reinforcement learning (RL) have proven superior to traditional methods. However, most RL methods face difficulties when applied in the real world due to three factors: input, output, and the cycle-flow relation. The industry's observable input is much more limited than simulation-based RL methods. For real-world solutions, only flow can be reliably collected, whereas common RL methods need more. For the output action, most RL methods focus on acyclic control, which real-world signal controllers do not support. Most importantly, industry standards require a consistent cycle-flow relationship: non-decreasing and different response strategies for low, medium, and high-level flows, which is ignored by the RL methods. To narrow the gap between RL methods and industry standards, we innovatively propose to use industry solutions to guide the RL agent. Specifically, we design behavior cloning and curriculum learning to guide the agent to mimic and meet industry requirements and, at the same time, leverage the power of exploration and exploitation in RL for better performance. We theoretically prove that such guidance can largely decrease the sample complexity to polynomials in the horizon when searching for an optimal policy. Our rigid experiments show that our method has good cycle-flow relation and superior performance.

Eliminating Feature Ambiguity for Few-Shot Segmentation

Recent advancements in few-shot segmentation (FSS) have exploited pixel-by-pixel matching between query and support features, typically based on cross attention, which selectively activate query foreground (FG) features that correspond to the same-class support FG features. However, due to the large receptive fields in deep layers of the backbone, the extracted query and support FG features are inevitably mingled with background (BG) features, impeding the FG-FG matching in cross attention. Hence, the query FG features are fused with less support FG features, i.e., the support information is not well utilized. This paper presents a novel plug-in termed ambiguity elimination network (AENet), which can be plugged into any existing cross attention-based FSS methods. The main idea is to mine discriminative query FG regions to rectify the ambiguous FG features, increasing the proportion of FG information, so as to suppress the negative impacts of the doped BG features. In this way, the FG-FG matching is naturally enhanced. We plug AENet into three baselines CyCTR, SCCAN and HDMNet for evaluation, and their scores are improved by large margins, e.g., the 1-shot performance of SCCAN can be improved by 3.0%+ on both PASCAL-5$^i$ and COCO-20$^i$. The code is available at https://github.com/Sam1224/AENet.

DualTime: A Dual-Adapter Multimodal Language Model for Time Series Representation

The recent rapid development of language models (LMs) has attracted attention in the field of time series, including multimodal time series modeling. However, we note that current time series multimodal methods are biased, often assigning a primary role to one modality while the other assumes a secondary role. They overlook the mutual benefits and complementary of different modalities. For example, in seizure diagnosis, relying solely on textual clinical reports makes it difficult to pinpoint the area and type of the disease, while electroencephalograms (EEGs) alone cannot provide an accurate diagnosis without considering the symptoms. In this study, based on the complementary information mining of time series multimodal data, we propose DualTime, a Dual-adapter multimodal language model for Time series representation implementing temporal-primary and textual-primary modeling simultaneously. By injecting lightweight adaption tokens, the LM pipeline shared by dual adapters encourages embedding alignment and achieves efficient fine-tuning. Empirically, our method outperforms state-of-the-art models in both supervised and unsupervised settings, highlighting the complementary benefits of different modalities. In addition, we conduct few-shot label transfer experiments, which further verifies the transferability and expressiveness of our proposed DualTime.

TimeCMA: Towards LLM-Empowered Time Series Forecasting via Cross-Modality Alignment

The widespread adoption of scalable mobile sensing has led to large amounts of time series data for real-world applications. A fundamental application is multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF), which aims to predict future time series values based on historical observations. Existing MTSF methods suffer from limited parameterization and small-scale training data. Recently, Large language models (LLMs) have been introduced in time series, which achieve promising forecasting performance but incur heavy computational costs. To solve these challenges, we propose TimeCMA, an LLM-empowered framework for time series forecasting with cross-modality alignment. We design a dual-modality encoding module with two branches, where the time series encoding branch extracts relatively low-quality yet pure embeddings of time series through an inverted Transformer. In addition, the LLM-empowered encoding branch wraps the same time series as prompts to obtain high-quality yet entangled prompt embeddings via a Pre-trained LLM. Then, we design a cross-modality alignment module to retrieve high-quality and pure time series embeddings from the prompt embeddings. Moreover, we develop a time series forecasting module to decode the aligned embeddings while capturing dependencies among multiple variables for forecasting. Notably, we tailor the prompt to encode sufficient temporal information into a last token and design the last token embedding storage to reduce computational costs. Extensive experiments on real data offer insight into the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed framework.