Position: Empowering Time Series Reasoning with Multimodal LLMs

Understanding time series data is crucial for multiple real-world applications. While large language models (LLMs) show promise in time series tasks, current approaches often rely on numerical data alone, overlooking the multimodal nature of time-dependent information, such as textual descriptions, visual data, and audio signals. Moreover, these methods underutilize LLMs' reasoning capabilities, limiting the analysis to surface-level interpretations instead of deeper temporal and multimodal reasoning. In this position paper, we argue that multimodal LLMs (MLLMs) can enable more powerful and flexible reasoning for time series analysis, enhancing decision-making and real-world applications. We call on researchers and practitioners to leverage this potential by developing strategies that prioritize trust, interpretability, and robust reasoning in MLLMs. Lastly, we highlight key research directions, including novel reasoning paradigms, architectural innovations, and domain-specific applications, to advance time series reasoning with MLLMs.

DeepSeek-V3 Technical Report

We present DeepSeek-V3, a strong Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) language model with 671B total parameters with 37B activated for each token. To achieve efficient inference and cost-effective training, DeepSeek-V3 adopts Multi-head Latent Attention (MLA) and DeepSeekMoE architectures, which were thoroughly validated in DeepSeek-V2. Furthermore, DeepSeek-V3 pioneers an auxiliary-loss-free strategy for load balancing and sets a multi-token prediction training objective for stronger performance. We pre-train DeepSeek-V3 on 14.8 trillion diverse and high-quality tokens, followed by Supervised Fine-Tuning and Reinforcement Learning stages to fully harness its capabilities. Comprehensive evaluations reveal that DeepSeek-V3 outperforms other open-source models and achieves performance comparable to leading closed-source models. Despite its excellent performance, DeepSeek-V3 requires only 2.788M H800 GPU hours for its full training. In addition, its training process is remarkably stable. Throughout the entire training process, we did not experience any irrecoverable loss spikes or perform any rollbacks. The model checkpoints are available at https://github.com/deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-V3.

Language-Model Prior Overcomes Cold-Start Items

The growth of recommender systems (RecSys) is driven by digitization and the need for personalized content in areas such as e-commerce and video streaming. The content in these systems often changes rapidly and therefore they constantly face the ongoing cold-start problem, where new items lack interaction data and are hard to value. Existing solutions for the cold-start problem, such as content-based recommenders and hybrid methods, leverage item metadata to determine item similarities. The main challenge with these methods is their reliance on structured and informative metadata to capture detailed item similarities, which may not always be available. This paper introduces a novel approach for cold-start item recommendation that utilizes the language model (LM) to estimate item similarities, which are further integrated as a Bayesian prior with classic recommender systems. This approach is generic and able to boost the performance of various recommenders. Specifically, our experiments integrate it with both sequential and collaborative filtering-based recommender and evaluate it on two real-world datasets, demonstrating the enhanced performance of the proposed approach.

UFT: Unifying Fine-Tuning of SFT and RLHF/DPO/UNA through a Generalized Implicit Reward Function

By pretraining on trillions of tokens, an LLM gains the capability of text generation. However, to enhance its utility and reduce potential harm, SFT and alignment are applied sequentially to the pretrained model. Due to the differing nature and objective functions of SFT and alignment, catastrophic forgetting has become a significant issue. To address this, we introduce Unified Fine-Tuning (UFT), which integrates SFT and alignment into a single training stage using the same objective and loss functions through an implicit reward function. Our experimental results demonstrate that UFT outperforms SFT on instruction-tuning data alone. Moreover, when combining instruction-tuning data with alignment data, UFT effectively prevents catastrophic forgetting across these two stages and shows a clear advantage over sequentially applying SFT and alignment. This is evident in the significant improvements observed in the \textbf{ifeval} task for instruction-following and the \textbf{truthful-qa} task for factuality. The proposed general fine-tuning framework UFT establishes an effective and efficient pretraining-UFT paradigm for LLM training.

TimeMixer++: A General Time Series Pattern Machine for Universal Predictive Analysis

Time series analysis plays a critical role in numerous applications, supporting tasks such as forecasting, classification, anomaly detection, and imputation. In this work, we present the time series pattern machine (TSPM), a model designed to excel in a broad range of time series tasks through powerful representation and pattern extraction capabilities. Traditional time series models often struggle to capture universal patterns, limiting their effectiveness across diverse tasks. To address this, we define multiple scales in the time domain and various resolutions in the frequency domain, employing various mixing strategies to extract intricate, task-adaptive time series patterns. Specifically, we introduce a general-purpose TSPM that processes multi-scale time series using (1) multi-resolution time imaging (MRTI), (2) time image decomposition (TID), (3) multi-scale mixing (MCM), and (4) multi-resolution mixing (MRM) to extract comprehensive temporal patterns. MRTI transforms multi-scale time series into multi-resolution time images, capturing patterns across both temporal and frequency domains. TID leverages dual-axis attention to extract seasonal and trend patterns, while MCM hierarchically aggregates these patterns across scales. MRM adaptively integrates all representations across resolutions. This method achieves state-of-the-art performance across 8 time series analytical tasks, consistently surpassing both general-purpose and task-specific models. Our work marks a promising step toward the next generation of TSPMs, paving the way for further advancements in time series analysis.

NeuroBOLT: Resting-state EEG-to-fMRI Synthesis with Multi-dimensional Feature Mapping

Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) is an indispensable tool in modern neuroscience, providing a non-invasive window into whole-brain dynamics at millimeter-scale spatial resolution. However, fMRI is constrained by issues such as high operation costs and immobility. With the rapid advancements in cross-modality synthesis and brain decoding, the use of deep neural networks has emerged as a promising solution for inferring whole-brain, high-resolution fMRI features directly from electroencephalography (EEG), a more widely accessible and portable neuroimaging modality. Nonetheless, the complex projection from neural activity to fMRI hemodynamic responses and the spatial ambiguity of EEG pose substantial challenges both in modeling and interpretability. Relatively few studies to date have developed approaches for EEG-fMRI translation, and although they have made significant strides, the inference of fMRI signals in a given study has been limited to a small set of brain areas and to a single condition (i.e., either resting-state or a specific task). The capability to predict fMRI signals in other brain areas, as well as to generalize across conditions, remain critical gaps in the field. To tackle these challenges, we introduce a novel and generalizable framework: NeuroBOLT, i.e., Neuro-to-BOLD Transformer, which leverages multi-dimensional representation learning from temporal, spatial, and spectral domains to translate raw EEG data to the corresponding fMRI activity signals across the brain. Our experiments demonstrate that NeuroBOLT effectively reconstructs resting-state fMRI signals from primary sensory, high-level cognitive areas, and deep subcortical brain regions, achieving state-of-the-art accuracy and significantly advancing the integration of these two modalities.

Time-MoE: Billion-Scale Time Series Foundation Models with Mixture of Experts

Deep learning for time series forecasting has seen significant advancements over the past decades. However, despite the success of large-scale pre-training in language and vision domains, pre-trained time series models remain limited in scale and operate at a high cost, hindering the development of larger capable forecasting models in real-world applications. In response, we introduce Time-MoE, a scalable and unified architecture designed to pre-train larger, more capable forecasting foundation models while reducing inference costs. By leveraging a sparse mixture-of-experts (MoE) design, Time-MoE enhances computational efficiency by activating only a subset of networks for each prediction, reducing computational load while maintaining high model capacity. This allows Time-MoE to scale effectively without a corresponding increase in inference costs. Time-MoE comprises a family of decoder-only transformer models that operate in an auto-regressive manner and support flexible forecasting horizons with varying input context lengths. We pre-trained these models on our newly introduced large-scale data Time-300B, which spans over 9 domains and encompassing over 300 billion time points. For the first time, we scaled a time series foundation model up to 2.4 billion parameters, achieving significantly improved forecasting precision. Our results validate the applicability of scaling laws for training tokens and model size in the context of time series forecasting. Compared to dense models with the same number of activated parameters or equivalent computation budgets, our models consistently outperform them by large margin. These advancements position Time-MoE as a state-of-the-art solution for tackling real-world time series forecasting challenges with superior capability, efficiency, and flexibility.

Reconstructing physiological signals from fMRI across the adult lifespan

Interactions between the brain and body are of fundamental importance for human behavior and health. Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) captures whole-brain activity noninvasively, and modeling how fMRI signals interact with physiological dynamics of the body can provide new insight into brain function and offer potential biomarkers of disease. However, physiological recordings are not always possible to acquire since they require extra equipment and setup, and even when they are, the recorded physiological signals may contain substantial artifacts. To overcome this limitation, machine learning models have been proposed to directly extract features of respiratory and cardiac activity from resting-state fMRI signals. To date, such work has been carried out only in healthy young adults and in a pediatric population, leaving open questions about the efficacy of these approaches on older adults. Here, we propose a novel framework that leverages Transformer-based architectures for reconstructing two key physiological signals - low-frequency respiratory volume (RV) and heart rate (HR) fluctuations - from fMRI data, and test these models on a dataset of individuals aged 36-89 years old. Our framework outperforms previously proposed approaches (attaining median correlations between predicted and measured signals of r ~ .698 for RV and r ~ .618 for HR), indicating the potential of leveraging attention mechanisms to model fMRI-physiological signal relationships. We also evaluate several model training and fine-tuning strategies, and find that incorporating young-adult data during training improves the performance when predicting physiological signals in the aging cohort. Overall, our approach successfully infers key physiological variables directly from fMRI data from individuals across a wide range of the adult lifespan.

Fire-Flyer AI-HPC: A Cost-Effective Software-Hardware Co-Design for Deep Learning

The rapid progress in Deep Learning (DL) and Large Language Models (LLMs) has exponentially increased demands of computational power and bandwidth. This, combined with the high costs of faster computing chips and interconnects, has significantly inflated High Performance Computing (HPC) construction costs. To address these challenges, we introduce the Fire-Flyer AI-HPC architecture, a synergistic hardware-software co-design framework and its best practices. For DL training, we deployed the Fire-Flyer 2 with 10,000 PCIe A100 GPUs, achieved performance approximating the DGX-A100 while reducing costs by half and energy consumption by 40%. We specifically engineered HFReduce to accelerate allreduce communication and implemented numerous measures to keep our Computation-Storage Integrated Network congestion-free. Through our software stack, including HaiScale, 3FS, and HAI-Platform, we achieved substantial scalability by overlapping computation and communication. Our system-oriented experience from DL training provides valuable insights to drive future advancements in AI-HPC.

Adaptive Two-Stage Cloud Resource Scaling via Hierarchical Multi-Indicator Forecasting and Bayesian Decision-Making

The surging demand for cloud computing resources, driven by the rapid growth of sophisticated large-scale models and data centers, underscores the critical importance of efficient and adaptive resource allocation. As major tech enterprises deploy massive infrastructures with thousands of GPUs, existing cloud platforms still struggle with low resource utilization due to key challenges: capturing hierarchical indicator structures, modeling non-Gaussian distributions, and decision-making under uncertainty. To address these challenges, we propose HRAMONY, an adaptive Hierarchical Attention-based Resource Modeling and Decision-Making System. HARMONY combines hierarchical multi-indicator distribution forecasting and uncertainty-aware Bayesian decision-making. It introduces a novel hierarchical attention mechanism that comprehensively models complex inter-indicator dependencies, enabling accurate predictions that can adapt to evolving environment states. By transforming Gaussian projections into adaptive non-Gaussian distributions via Normalizing Flows. Crucially, HARMONY leverages the full predictive distributions in an adaptive Bayesian process, proactively incorporating uncertainties to optimize resource allocation while robustly meeting SLA constraints under varying conditions. Extensive evaluations across four large-scale cloud datasets demonstrate HARMONY's state-of-the-art performance, significantly outperforming nine established methods. A month-long real-world deployment validated HARMONY's substantial practical impact, realizing over 35,000 GPU hours in savings and translating to $100K+ in cost reduction, showcasing its remarkable economic value through adaptive, uncertainty-aware scaling. Our code is available at https://github.com/Floating-LY/HARMONY1.