Uncertainty-Adjusted Sorting for Asset Pricing with Machine Learning

Machine learning is central to empirical asset pricing, but portfolio construction still relies on point predictions and largely ignores asset-specific estimation uncertainty. We propose a simple change: sort assets using uncertainty-adjusted prediction bounds instead of point predictions alone. Across a broad set of ML models and a U.S. equity panel, this approach improves portfolio performance relative to point-prediction sorting. These gains persist even when bounds are built from partial or misspecified uncertainty information. They arise mainly from reduced volatility and are strongest for flexible machine learning models. Identification and robustness exercises show that these improvements are driven by asset-level rather than time or aggregate predictive uncertainty.

Conversational Time Series Foundation Models: Towards Explainable and Effective Forecasting

The proliferation of time series foundation models has created a landscape where no single method achieves consistent superiority, framing the central challenge not as finding the best model, but as orchestrating an optimal ensemble with interpretability. While Large Language Models (LLMs) offer powerful reasoning capabilities, their direct application to time series forecasting has proven ineffective. We address this gap by repositioning the LLM as an intelligent judge that evaluates, explains, and strategically coordinates an ensemble of foundation models. To overcome the LLM's inherent lack of domain-specific knowledge on time series, we introduce an R1-style finetuning process, guided by SHAP-based faithfulness scores, which teaches the model to interpret ensemble weights as meaningful causal statements about temporal dynamics. The trained agent then engages in iterative, multi-turn conversations to perform forward-looking assessments, provide causally-grounded explanations for its weighting decisions, and adaptively refine the optimization strategy. Validated on the GIFT-Eval benchmark on 23 datasets across 97 settings, our approach significantly outperforms leading time series foundation models on both CRPS and MASE metrics, establishing new state-of-the-art results.

Revisiting the Reliability of Language Models in Instruction-Following

Advanced LLMs have achieved near-ceiling instruction-following accuracy on benchmarks such as IFEval. However, these impressive scores do not necessarily translate to reliable services in real-world use, where users often vary their phrasing, contextual framing, and task formulations. In this paper, we study nuance-oriented reliability: whether models exhibit consistent competence across cousin prompts that convey analogous user intents but with subtle nuances. To quantify this, we introduce a new metric, reliable@k, and develop an automated pipeline that generates high-quality cousin prompts via data augmentation. Building upon this, we construct IFEval++ for systematic evaluation. Across 20 proprietary and 26 open-source LLMs, we find that current models exhibit substantial insufficiency in nuance-oriented reliability -- their performance can drop by up to 61.8% with nuanced prompt modifications. What's more, we characterize it and explore three potential improvement recipes. Our findings highlight nuance-oriented reliability as a crucial yet underexplored next step toward more dependable and trustworthy LLM behavior. Our code and benchmark are accessible: https://github.com/jianshuod/IFEval-pp.

Gait-Adaptive Perceptive Humanoid Locomotion with Real-Time Under-Base Terrain Reconstruction

For full-size humanoid robots, even with recent advances in reinforcement learning-based control, achieving reliable locomotion on complex terrains, such as long staircases, remains challenging. In such settings, limited perception, ambiguous terrain cues, and insufficient adaptation of gait timing can cause even a single misplaced or mistimed step to result in rapid loss of balance. We introduce a perceptive locomotion framework that merges terrain sensing, gait regulation, and whole-body control into a single reinforcement learning policy. A downward-facing depth camera mounted under the base observes the support region around the feet, and a compact U-Net reconstructs a dense egocentric height map from each frame in real time, operating at the same frequency as the control loop. The perceptual height map, together with proprioceptive observations, is processed by a unified policy that produces joint commands and a global stepping-phase signal, allowing gait timing and whole-body posture to be adapted jointly to the commanded motion and local terrain geometry. We further adopt a single-stage successive teacher-student training scheme for efficient policy learning and knowledge transfer. Experiments conducted on a 31-DoF, 1.65 m humanoid robot demonstrate robust locomotion in both simulation and real-world settings, including forward and backward stair ascent and descent, as well as crossing a 46 cm gap. Project Page:https://ga-phl.github.io/

RAGFort: Dual-Path Defense Against Proprietary Knowledge Base Extraction in Retrieval-Augmented Generation

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) systems deployed over proprietary knowledge bases face growing threats from reconstruction attacks that aggregate model responses to replicate knowledge bases. Such attacks exploit both intra-class and inter-class paths, progressively extracting fine-grained knowledge within topics and diffusing it across semantically related ones, thereby enabling comprehensive extraction of the original knowledge base. However, existing defenses target only one path, leaving the other unprotected. We conduct a systematic exploration to assess the impact of protecting each path independently and find that joint protection is essential for effective defense. Based on this, we propose RAGFort, a structure-aware dual-module defense combining "contrastive reindexing" for inter-class isolation and "constrained cascade generation" for intra-class protection. Experiments across security, performance, and robustness confirm that RAGFort significantly reduces reconstruction success while preserving answer quality, offering comprehensive defense against knowledge base extraction attacks.

Higher-Order Causal Structure Learning with Additive Models

Causal structure learning has long been the central task of inferring causal insights from data. Despite the abundance of real-world processes exhibiting higher-order mechanisms, however, an explicit treatment of interactions in causal discovery has received little attention. In this work, we focus on extending the causal additive model (CAM) to additive models with higher-order interactions. This second level of modularity we introduce to the structure learning problem is most easily represented by a directed acyclic hypergraph which extends the DAG. We introduce the necessary definitions and theoretical tools to handle the novel structure we introduce and then provide identifiability results for the hyper DAG, extending the typical Markov equivalence classes. We next provide insights into why learning the more complex hypergraph structure may actually lead to better empirical results. In particular, more restrictive assumptions like CAM correspond to easier-to-learn hyper DAGs and better finite sample complexity. We finally develop an extension of the greedy CAM algorithm which can handle the more complex hyper DAG search space and demonstrate its empirical usefulness in synthetic experiments.

Semantic Surgery: Zero-Shot Concept Erasure in Diffusion Models

Concept erasure in text-to-image diffusion models is crucial for mitigating harmful content, yet existing methods often compromise generative quality. We introduce Semantic Surgery, a novel training-free, zero-shot framework for concept erasure that operates directly on text embeddings before the diffusion process. It dynamically estimates the presence of target concepts in a prompt and performs a calibrated vector subtraction to neutralize their influence at the source, enhancing both erasure completeness and locality. The framework includes a Co-Occurrence Encoding module for robust multi-concept erasure and a visual feedback loop to address latent concept persistence. As a training-free method, Semantic Surgery adapts dynamically to each prompt, ensuring precise interventions. Extensive experiments on object, explicit content, artistic style, and multi-celebrity erasure tasks show our method significantly outperforms state-of-the-art approaches. We achieve superior completeness and robustness while preserving locality and image quality (e.g., 93.58 H-score in object erasure, reducing explicit content to just 1 instance, and 8.09 H_a in style erasure with no quality degradation). This robustness also allows our framework to function as a built-in threat detection system, offering a practical solution for safer text-to-image generation.

CompLex: Music Theory Lexicon Constructed by Autonomous Agents for Automatic Music Generation

Generative artificial intelligence in music has made significant strides, yet it still falls short of the substantial achievements seen in natural language processing, primarily due to the limited availability of music data. Knowledge-informed approaches have been shown to enhance the performance of music generation models, even when only a few pieces of musical knowledge are integrated. This paper seeks to leverage comprehensive music theory in AI-driven music generation tasks, such as algorithmic composition and style transfer, which traditionally require significant manual effort with existing techniques. We introduce a novel automatic music lexicon construction model that generates a lexicon, named CompLex, comprising 37,432 items derived from just 9 manually input category keywords and 5 sentence prompt templates. A new multi-agent algorithm is proposed to automatically detect and mitigate hallucinations. CompLex demonstrates impressive performance improvements across three state-of-the-art text-to-music generation models, encompassing both symbolic and audio-based methods. Furthermore, we evaluate CompLex in terms of completeness, accuracy, non-redundancy, and executability, confirming that it possesses the key characteristics of an effective lexicon.

Foundation Models for Demand Forecasting via Dual-Strategy Ensembling

Accurate demand forecasting is critical for supply chain optimization, yet remains difficult in practice due to hierarchical complexity, domain shifts, and evolving external factors. While recent foundation models offer strong potential for time series forecasting, they often suffer from architectural rigidity and limited robustness under distributional change. In this paper, we propose a unified ensemble framework that enhances the performance of foundation models for sales forecasting in real-world supply chains. Our method combines two complementary strategies: (1) Hierarchical Ensemble (HE), which partitions training and inference by semantic levels (e.g., store, category, department) to capture localized patterns; and (2) Architectural Ensemble (AE), which integrates predictions from diverse model backbones to mitigate bias and improve stability. We conduct extensive experiments on the M5 benchmark and three external sales datasets, covering both in-domain and zero-shot forecasting. Results show that our approach consistently outperforms strong baselines, improves accuracy across hierarchical levels, and provides a simple yet effective mechanism for boosting generalization in complex forecasting environments.

Locally Adaptive Conformal Inference for Operator Models

Operator models are regression algorithms for functional data and have become a key tool for emulating large-scale dynamical systems. Recent advances in deep neural operators have dramatically improved the accuracy and scalability of operator modeling, but lack an inherent notion of predictive uncertainty. We introduce Local Spectral Conformal Inference (LSCI), a new framework for locally adaptive, distribution-free uncertainty quantification for neural operator models. LSCI uses projection-based depth scoring and localized conformal inference to generate function-valued prediction sets with statistical guarantees. We prove approximate finite-sample marginal coverage under local exchangeability, and demonstrate significant gains in adaptivity and coverage across synthetic and real-world operator learning tasks.