Least-Loaded Expert Parallelism: Load Balancing An Imbalanced Mixture-of-Experts

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models are typically pre-trained with explicit load-balancing constraints to ensure statistically balanced expert routing. Despite this, we observe that even well-trained MoE models exhibit significantly imbalanced routing. This behavior is arguably natural-and even desirable - as imbalanced routing allows models to concentrate domain-specific knowledge within a subset of experts. Expert parallelism (EP) is designed to scale MoE models by distributing experts across multiple devices, but with a less-discussed assumption of balanced routing. Under extreme imbalance, EP can funnel a disproportionate number of tokens to a small number of experts, leading to compute- and memory-bound failures on overloaded devices during post-training or inference, where explicit load balancing is often inapplicable. We propose Least-Loaded Expert Parallelism (LLEP), a novel EP algorithm that dynamically reroutes excess tokens and associated expert parameters from overloaded devices to underutilized ones. This ensures that all devices complete their workloads within the minimum collective latency while respecting memory constraints. Across different model scales, LLEP achieves up to 5x speedup and 4x reduction in peak memory usage compared to standard EP. This enables faster and higher-throughput post-training and inference, with ~1.9x faster for gpt-oss-120b. We support our method with extensive theoretical analysis and comprehensive empirical evaluations, including ablation studies. These results illuminate key trade-offs and enable a principled framework for hardware-specific hyper-parameter tuning to achieve optimal performance.

From Passive Metric to Active Signal: The Evolving Role of Uncertainty Quantification in Large Language Models

While Large Language Models (LLMs) show remarkable capabilities, their unreliability remains a critical barrier to deployment in high-stakes domains. This survey charts a functional evolution in addressing this challenge: the evolution of uncertainty from a passive diagnostic metric to an active control signal guiding real-time model behavior. We demonstrate how uncertainty is leveraged as an active control signal across three frontiers: in \textbf{advanced reasoning} to optimize computation and trigger self-correction; in \textbf{autonomous agents} to govern metacognitive decisions about tool use and information seeking; and in \textbf{reinforcement learning} to mitigate reward hacking and enable self-improvement via intrinsic rewards. By grounding these advancements in emerging theoretical frameworks like Bayesian methods and Conformal Prediction, we provide a unified perspective on this transformative trend. This survey provides a comprehensive overview, critical analysis, and practical design patterns, arguing that mastering the new trend of uncertainty is essential for building the next generation of scalable, reliable, and trustworthy AI.

Agentic Uncertainty Quantification

Although AI agents have demonstrated impressive capabilities in long-horizon reasoning, their reliability is severely hampered by the ``Spiral of Hallucination,'' where early epistemic errors propagate irreversibly. Existing methods face a dilemma: uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods typically act as passive sensors, only diagnosing risks without addressing them, while self-reflection mechanisms suffer from continuous or aimless corrections. To bridge this gap, we propose a unified Dual-Process Agentic UQ (AUQ) framework that transforms verbalized uncertainty into active, bi-directional control signals. Our architecture comprises two complementary mechanisms: System 1 (Uncertainty-Aware Memory, UAM), which implicitly propagates verbalized confidence and semantic explanations to prevent blind decision-making; and System 2 (Uncertainty-Aware Reflection, UAR), which utilizes these explanations as rational cues to trigger targeted inference-time resolution only when necessary. This enables the agent to balance efficient execution and deep deliberation dynamically. Extensive experiments on closed-loop benchmarks and open-ended deep research tasks demonstrate that our training-free approach achieves superior performance and trajectory-level calibration. We believe this principled framework AUQ represents a significant step towards reliable agents.

Agentic Confidence Calibration

AI agents are rapidly advancing from passive language models to autonomous systems executing complex, multi-step tasks. Yet their overconfidence in failure remains a fundamental barrier to deployment in high-stakes settings. Existing calibration methods, built for static single-turn outputs, cannot address the unique challenges of agentic systems, such as compounding errors along trajectories, uncertainty from external tools, and opaque failure modes. To address these challenges, we introduce, for the first time, the problem of Agentic Confidence Calibration and propose Holistic Trajectory Calibration (HTC), a novel diagnostic framework that extracts rich process-level features ranging from macro dynamics to micro stability across an agent's entire trajectory. Powered by a simple, interpretable model, HTC consistently surpasses strong baselines in both calibration and discrimination, across eight benchmarks, multiple LLMs, and diverse agent frameworks. Beyond performance, HTC delivers three essential advances: it provides interpretability by revealing the signals behind failure, enables transferability by applying across domains without retraining, and achieves generalization through a General Agent Calibrator (GAC) that achieves the best calibration (lowest ECE) on the out-of-domain GAIA benchmark. Together, these contributions establish a new process-centric paradigm for confidence calibration, providing a framework for diagnosing and enhancing the reliability of AI agents.

MAS-Orchestra: Understanding and Improving Multi-Agent Reasoning Through Holistic Orchestration and Controlled Benchmarks

While multi-agent systems (MAS) promise elevated intelligence through coordination of agents, current approaches to automatic MAS design under-deliver. Such shortcomings stem from two key factors: (1) methodological complexity - agent orchestration is performed using sequential, code-level execution that limits global system-level holistic reasoning and scales poorly with agent complexity - and (2) efficacy uncertainty - MAS are deployed without understanding if there are tangible benefits compared to single-agent systems (SAS). We propose MAS-Orchestra, a training-time framework that formulates MAS orchestration as a function-calling reinforcement learning problem with holistic orchestration, generating an entire MAS at once. In MAS-Orchestra, complex, goal-oriented sub-agents are abstracted as callable functions, enabling global reasoning over system structure while hiding internal execution details. To rigorously study when and why MAS are beneficial, we introduce MASBENCH, a controlled benchmark that characterizes tasks along five axes: Depth, Horizon, Breadth, Parallel, and Robustness. Our analysis reveals that MAS gains depend critically on task structure, verification protocols, and the capabilities of both orchestrator and sub-agents, rather than holding universally. Guided by these insights, MAS-Orchestra achieves consistent improvements on public benchmarks including mathematical reasoning, multi-hop QA, and search-based QA. Together, MAS-Orchestra and MASBENCH enable better training and understanding of MAS in the pursuit of multi-agent intelligence.

Future Optical Flow Prediction Improves Robot Control & Video Generation

Future motion representations, such as optical flow, offer immense value for control and generative tasks. However, forecasting generalizable spatially dense motion representations remains a key challenge, and learning such forecasting from noisy, real-world data remains relatively unexplored. We introduce FOFPred, a novel language-conditioned optical flow forecasting model featuring a unified Vision-Language Model (VLM) and Diffusion architecture. This unique combination enables strong multimodal reasoning with pixel-level generative fidelity for future motion prediction. Our model is trained on web-scale human activity data-a highly scalable but unstructured source. To extract meaningful signals from this noisy video-caption data, we employ crucial data preprocessing techniques and our unified architecture with strong image pretraining. The resulting trained model is then extended to tackle two distinct downstream tasks in control and generation. Evaluations across robotic manipulation and video generation under language-driven settings establish the cross-domain versatility of FOFPred, confirming the value of a unified VLM-Diffusion architecture and scalable learning from diverse web data for future optical flow prediction.

SweRank+: Multilingual, Multi-Turn Code Ranking for Software Issue Localization

Maintaining large-scale, multilingual codebases hinges on accurately localizing issues, which requires mapping natural-language error descriptions to the relevant functions that need to be modified. However, existing ranking approaches are often Python-centric and perform a single-pass search over the codebase. This work introduces SweRank+, a framework that couples SweRankMulti, a cross-lingual code ranking tool, with SweRankAgent, an agentic search setup, for iterative, multi-turn reasoning over the code repository. SweRankMulti comprises a code embedding retriever and a listwise LLM reranker, and is trained using a carefully curated large-scale issue localization dataset spanning multiple popular programming languages. SweRankAgent adopts an agentic search loop that moves beyond single-shot localization with a memory buffer to reason and accumulate relevant localization candidates over multiple turns. Our experiments on issue localization benchmarks spanning various languages demonstrate new state-of-the-art performance with SweRankMulti, while SweRankAgent further improves localization over single-pass ranking.

Robotic VLA Benefits from Joint Learning with Motion Image Diffusion

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models have achieved remarkable progress in robotic manipulation by mapping multimodal observations and instructions directly to actions. However, they typically mimic expert trajectories without predictive motion reasoning, which limits their ability to reason about what actions to take. To address this limitation, we propose joint learning with motion image diffusion, a novel strategy that enhances VLA models with motion reasoning capabilities. Our method extends the VLA architecture with a dual-head design: while the action head predicts action chunks as in vanilla VLAs, an additional motion head, implemented as a Diffusion Transformer (DiT), predicts optical-flow-based motion images that capture future dynamics. The two heads are trained jointly, enabling the shared VLM backbone to learn representations that couple robot control with motion knowledge. This joint learning builds temporally coherent and physically grounded representations without modifying the inference pathway of standard VLAs, thereby maintaining test-time latency. Experiments in both simulation and real-world environments demonstrate that joint learning with motion image diffusion improves the success rate of pi-series VLAs to 97.5% on the LIBERO benchmark and 58.0% on the RoboTwin benchmark, yielding a 23% improvement in real-world performance and validating its effectiveness in enhancing the motion reasoning capability of large-scale VLAs.

LoCoBench-Agent: An Interactive Benchmark for LLM Agents in Long-Context Software Engineering

As large language models (LLMs) evolve into sophisticated autonomous agents capable of complex software development tasks, evaluating their real-world capabilities becomes critical. While existing benchmarks like LoCoBench~\cite{qiu2025locobench} assess long-context code understanding, they focus on single-turn evaluation and cannot capture the multi-turn interactive nature, tool usage patterns, and adaptive reasoning required by real-world coding agents. We introduce \textbf{LoCoBench-Agent}, a comprehensive evaluation framework specifically designed to assess LLM agents in realistic, long-context software engineering workflows. Our framework extends LoCoBench's 8,000 scenarios into interactive agent environments, enabling systematic evaluation of multi-turn conversations, tool usage efficiency, error recovery, and architectural consistency across extended development sessions. We also introduce an evaluation methodology with 9 metrics across comprehension and efficiency dimensions. Our framework provides agents with 8 specialized tools (file operations, search, code analysis) and evaluates them across context lengths ranging from 10K to 1M tokens, enabling precise assessment of long-context performance. Through systematic evaluation of state-of-the-art models, we reveal several key findings: (1) agents exhibit remarkable long-context robustness; (2) comprehension-efficiency trade-off exists with negative correlation, where thorough exploration increases comprehension but reduces efficiency; and (3) conversation efficiency varies dramatically across models, with strategic tool usage patterns differentiating high-performing agents. As the first long-context LLM agent benchmark for software engineering, LoCoBench-Agent establishes a rigorous foundation for measuring agent capabilities, identifying performance gaps, and advancing autonomous software development at scale.

SSR: Socratic Self-Refine for Large Language Model Reasoning

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable reasoning abilities, yet existing test-time frameworks often rely on coarse self-verification and self-correction, limiting their effectiveness on complex tasks. In this paper, we propose Socratic Self-Refine (SSR), a novel framework for fine-grained evaluation and precise refinement of LLM reasoning. Our proposed SSR decomposes model responses into verifiable (sub-question, sub-answer) pairs, enabling step-level confidence estimation through controlled re-solving and self-consistency checks. By pinpointing unreliable steps and iteratively refining them, SSR produces more accurate and interpretable reasoning chains. Empirical results across five reasoning benchmarks and three LLMs show that SSR consistently outperforms state-of-the-art iterative self-refinement baselines. Beyond performance gains, SSR provides a principled black-box approach for evaluating and understanding the internal reasoning processes of LLMs. Code is available at https://github.com/SalesforceAIResearch/socratic-self-refine-reasoning.