A Survey on Diffusion Models for Time Series and Spatio-Temporal Data

The study of time series data is crucial for understanding trends and anomalies over time, enabling predictive insights across various sectors. Spatio-temporal data, on the other hand, is vital for analyzing phenomena in both space and time, providing a dynamic perspective on complex system interactions. Recently, diffusion models have seen widespread application in time series and spatio-temporal data mining. Not only do they enhance the generative and inferential capabilities for sequential and temporal data, but they also extend to other downstream tasks. In this survey, we comprehensively and thoroughly review the use of diffusion models in time series and spatio-temporal data, categorizing them by model category, task type, data modality, and practical application domain. In detail, we categorize diffusion models into unconditioned and conditioned types and discuss time series data and spatio-temporal data separately. Unconditioned models, which operate unsupervised, are subdivided into probability-based and score-based models, serving predictive and generative tasks such as forecasting, anomaly detection, classification, and imputation. Conditioned models, on the other hand, utilize extra information to enhance performance and are similarly divided for both predictive and generative tasks. Our survey extensively covers their application in various fields, including healthcare, recommendation, climate, energy, audio, and transportation, providing a foundational understanding of how these models analyze and generate data. Through this structured overview, we aim to provide researchers and practitioners with a comprehensive understanding of diffusion models for time series and spatio-temporal data analysis, aiming to direct future innovations and applications by addressing traditional challenges and exploring innovative solutions within the diffusion model framework.

Flood Data Analysis on SpaceNet 8 Using Apache Sedona

With the escalating frequency of floods posing persistent threats to human life and property, satellite remote sensing has emerged as an indispensable tool for monitoring flood hazards. SpaceNet8 offers a unique opportunity to leverage cutting-edge artificial intelligence technologies to assess these hazards. A significant contribution of this research is its application of Apache Sedona, an advanced platform specifically designed for the efficient and distributed processing of large-scale geospatial data. This platform aims to enhance the efficiency of error analysis, a critical aspect of improving flood damage detection accuracy. Based on Apache Sedona, we introduce a novel approach that addresses the challenges associated with inaccuracies in flood damage detection. This approach involves the retrieval of cases from historical flood events, the adaptation of these cases to current scenarios, and the revision of the model based on clustering algorithms to refine its performance. Through the replication of both the SpaceNet8 baseline and its top-performing models, we embark on a comprehensive error analysis. This analysis reveals several main sources of inaccuracies. To address these issues, we employ data visual interpretation and histogram equalization techniques, resulting in significant improvements in model metrics. After these enhancements, our indicators show a notable improvement, with precision up by 5%, F1 score by 2.6%, and IoU by 4.5%. This work highlights the importance of advanced geospatial data processing tools, such as Apache Sedona. By improving the accuracy and efficiency of flood detection, this research contributes to safeguarding public safety and strengthening infrastructure resilience in flood-prone areas, making it a valuable addition to the field of remote sensing and disaster management.

A Unified Replay-based Continuous Learning Framework for Spatio-Temporal Prediction on Streaming Data

The widespread deployment of wireless and mobile devices results in a proliferation of spatio-temporal data that is used in applications, e.g., traffic prediction, human mobility mining, and air quality prediction, where spatio-temporal prediction is often essential to enable safety, predictability, or reliability. Many recent proposals that target deep learning for spatio-temporal prediction suffer from so-called catastrophic forgetting, where previously learned knowledge is entirely forgotten when new data arrives. Such proposals may experience deteriorating prediction performance when applied in settings where data streams into the system. To enable spatio-temporal prediction on streaming data, we propose a unified replay-based continuous learning framework. The framework includes a replay buffer of previously learned samples that are fused with training data using a spatio-temporal mixup mechanism in order to preserve historical knowledge effectively, thus avoiding catastrophic forgetting. To enable holistic representation preservation, the framework also integrates a general spatio-temporal autoencoder with a carefully designed spatio-temporal simple siamese (STSimSiam) network that aims to ensure prediction accuracy and avoid holistic feature loss by means of mutual information maximization. The framework further encompasses five spatio-temporal data augmentation methods to enhance the performance of STSimSiam. Extensive experiments on real data offer insight into the effectiveness of the proposed framework.

QCore: Data-Efficient, On-Device Continual Calibration for Quantized Models -- Extended Version

We are witnessing an increasing availability of streaming data that may contain valuable information on the underlying processes. It is thus attractive to be able to deploy machine learning models on edge devices near sensors such that decisions can be made instantaneously, rather than first having to transmit incoming data to servers. To enable deployment on edge devices with limited storage and computational capabilities, the full-precision parameters in standard models can be quantized to use fewer bits. The resulting quantized models are then calibrated using back-propagation and full training data to ensure accuracy. This one-time calibration works for deployments in static environments. However, model deployment in dynamic edge environments call for continual calibration to adaptively adjust quantized models to fit new incoming data, which may have different distributions. The first difficulty in enabling continual calibration on the edge is that the full training data may be too large and thus not always available on edge devices. The second difficulty is that the use of back-propagation on the edge for repeated calibration is too expensive. We propose QCore to enable continual calibration on the edge. First, it compresses the full training data into a small subset to enable effective calibration of quantized models with different bit-widths. We also propose means of updating the subset when new streaming data arrives to reflect changes in the environment, while not forgetting earlier training data. Second, we propose a small bit-flipping network that works with the subset to update quantized model parameters, thus enabling efficient continual calibration without back-propagation. An experimental study, conducted with real-world data in a continual learning setting, offers insight into the properties of QCore and shows that it is capable of outperforming strong baseline methods.

TFB: Towards Comprehensive and Fair Benchmarking of Time Series Forecasting Methods

Time series are generated in diverse domains such as economic, traffic, health, and energy, where forecasting of future values has numerous important applications. Not surprisingly, many forecasting methods are being proposed. To ensure progress, it is essential to be able to study and compare such methods empirically in a comprehensive and reliable manner. To achieve this, we propose TFB, an automated benchmark for Time Series Forecasting (TSF) methods. TFB advances the state-of-the-art by addressing shortcomings related to datasets, comparison methods, and evaluation pipelines: 1) insufficient coverage of data domains, 2) stereotype bias against traditional methods, and 3) inconsistent and inflexible pipelines. To achieve better domain coverage, we include datasets from 10 different domains: traffic, electricity, energy, the environment, nature, economic, stock markets, banking, health, and the web. We also provide a time series characterization to ensure that the selected datasets are comprehensive. To remove biases against some methods, we include a diverse range of methods, including statistical learning, machine learning, and deep learning methods, and we also support a variety of evaluation strategies and metrics to ensure a more comprehensive evaluations of different methods. To support the integration of different methods into the benchmark and enable fair comparisons, TFB features a flexible and scalable pipeline that eliminates biases. Next, we employ TFB to perform a thorough evaluation of 21 Univariate Time Series Forecasting (UTSF) methods on 8,068 univariate time series and 14 Multivariate Time Series Forecasting (MTSF) methods on 25 datasets. The benchmark code and data are available at https://github.com/decisionintelligence/TFB.

Dual-modal Prior Semantic Guided Infrared and Visible Image Fusion for Intelligent Transportation System

Infrared and visible image fusion (IVF) plays an important role in intelligent transportation system (ITS). The early works predominantly focus on boosting the visual appeal of the fused result, and only several recent approaches have tried to combine the high-level vision task with IVF. However, they prioritize the design of cascaded structure to seek unified suitable features and fit different tasks. Thus, they tend to typically bias toward to reconstructing raw pixels without considering the significance of semantic features. Therefore, we propose a novel prior semantic guided image fusion method based on the dual-modality strategy, improving the performance of IVF in ITS. Specifically, to explore the independent significant semantic of each modality, we first design two parallel semantic segmentation branches with a refined feature adaptive-modulation (RFaM) mechanism. RFaM can perceive the features that are semantically distinct enough in each semantic segmentation branch. Then, two pilot experiments based on the two branches are conducted to capture the significant prior semantic of two images, which then is applied to guide the fusion task in the integration of semantic segmentation branches and fusion branches. In addition, to aggregate both high-level semantics and impressive visual effects, we further investigate the frequency response of the prior semantics, and propose a multi-level representation-adaptive fusion (MRaF) module to explicitly integrate the low-frequent prior semantic with the high-frequent details. Extensive experiments on two public datasets demonstrate the superiority of our method over the state-of-the-art image fusion approaches, in terms of either the visual appeal or the high-level semantics.

An Empirical Study of the Generalization Ability of Lidar 3D Object Detectors to Unseen Domains

3D Object Detectors (3D-OD) are crucial for understanding the environment in many robotic tasks, especially autonomous driving. Including 3D information via Lidar sensors improves accuracy greatly. However, such detectors perform poorly on domains they were not trained on, i.e. different locations, sensors, weather, etc., limiting their reliability in safety-critical applications. There exist methods to adapt 3D-ODs to these domains; however, these methods treat 3D-ODs as a black box, neglecting underlying architectural decisions and source-domain training strategies. Instead, we dive deep into the details of 3D-ODs, focusing our efforts on fundamental factors that influence robustness prior to domain adaptation. We systematically investigate four design choices (and the interplay between them) often overlooked in 3D-OD robustness and domain adaptation: architecture, voxel encoding, data augmentations, and anchor strategies. We assess their impact on the robustness of nine state-of-the-art 3D-ODs across six benchmarks encompassing three types of domain gaps - sensor type, weather, and location. Our main findings are: (1) transformer backbones with local point features are more robust than 3D CNNs, (2) test-time anchor size adjustment is crucial for adaptation across geographical locations, significantly boosting scores without retraining, (3) source-domain augmentations allow the model to generalize to low-resolution sensors, and (4) surprisingly, robustness to bad weather is improved when training directly on more clean weather data than on training with bad weather data. We outline our main conclusions and findings to provide practical guidance on developing more robust 3D-ODs.

GenSTL: General Sparse Trajectory Learning via Auto-regressive Generation of Feature Domains

Trajectories are sequences of timestamped location samples. In sparse trajectories, the locations are sampled infrequently; and while such trajectories are prevalent in real-world settings, they are challenging to use to enable high-quality transportation-related applications. Current methodologies either assume densely sampled and accurately map-matched trajectories, or they rely on two-stage schemes, yielding sub-optimal applications. To extend the utility of sparse trajectories, we propose a novel sparse trajectory learning framework, GenSTL. The framework is pre-trained to form connections between sparse trajectories and dense counterparts using auto-regressive generation of feature domains. GenSTL can subsequently be applied directly in downstream tasks, or it can be fine-tuned first. This way, GenSTL eliminates the reliance on the availability of large-scale dense and map-matched trajectory data. The inclusion of a well-crafted feature domain encoding layer and a hierarchical masked trajectory encoder enhances GenSTL's learning capabilities and adaptability. Experiments on two real-world trajectory datasets offer insight into the framework's ability to contend with sparse trajectories with different sampling intervals and its versatility across different downstream tasks, thus offering evidence of its practicality in real-world applications.

Position Paper: What Can Large Language Models Tell Us about Time Series Analysis

Time series analysis is essential for comprehending the complexities inherent in various real-world systems and applications. Although large language models (LLMs) have recently made significant strides, the development of artificial general intelligence (AGI) equipped with time series analysis capabilities remains in its nascent phase. Most existing time series models heavily rely on domain knowledge and extensive model tuning, predominantly focusing on prediction tasks. In this paper, we argue that current LLMs have the potential to revolutionize time series analysis, thereby promoting efficient decision-making and advancing towards a more universal form of time series analytical intelligence. Such advancement could unlock a wide range of possibilities, including modality switching and time series question answering. We encourage researchers and practitioners to recognize the potential of LLMs in advancing time series analysis and emphasize the need for trust in these related efforts. Furthermore, we detail the seamless integration of time series analysis with existing LLM technologies and outline promising avenues for future research.

Pathformer: Multi-scale transformers with Adaptive Pathways for Time Series Forecasting

Transformer-based models have achieved some success in time series forecasting. Existing methods mainly model time series from limited or fixed scales, making it challenging to capture different characteristics spanning various scales. In this paper, we propose multi-scale transformers with adaptive pathways (Pathformer). The proposed Transformer integrates both temporal resolution and temporal distance for multi-scale modeling. Multi-scale division divides the time series into different temporal resolutions using patches of various sizes. Based on the division of each scale, dual attention is performed over these patches to capture global correlations and local details as temporal dependencies. We further enrich the multi-scale transformer with adaptive pathways, which adaptively adjust the multi-scale modeling process based on the varying temporal dynamics in the input time series, improving the prediction accuracy and generalization of Pathformer. Extensive experiments on eleven real-world datasets demonstrate that Pathformer not only achieves state-of-the-art performance by surpassing all current models but also exhibits stronger generalization abilities under various transfer scenarios.