Air Quality Prediction with Physics-Informed Dual Neural ODEs in Open Systems

Air pollution significantly threatens human health and ecosystems, necessitating effective air quality prediction to inform public policy. Traditional approaches are generally categorized into physics-based and data-driven models. Physics-based models usually struggle with high computational demands and closed-system assumptions, while data-driven models may overlook essential physical dynamics, confusing the capturing of spatiotemporal correlations. Although some physics-informed approaches combine the strengths of both models, they often face a mismatch between explicit physical equations and implicit learned representations. To address these challenges, we propose Air-DualODE, a novel physics-informed approach that integrates dual branches of Neural ODEs for air quality prediction. The first branch applies open-system physical equations to capture spatiotemporal dependencies for learning physics dynamics, while the second branch identifies the dependencies not addressed by the first in a fully data-driven way. These dual representations are temporally aligned and fused to enhance prediction accuracy. Our experimental results demonstrate that Air-DualODE achieves state-of-the-art performance in predicting pollutant concentrations across various spatial scales, thereby offering a promising solution for real-world air quality challenges.

Unsupervised Time Series Anomaly Prediction with Importance-based Generative Contrastive Learning

Time series anomaly prediction plays an essential role in many real-world scenarios, such as environmental prevention and prompt maintenance of cyber-physical systems. However, existing time series anomaly prediction methods mainly require supervised training with plenty of manually labeled data, which are difficult to obtain in practice. Besides, unseen anomalies can occur during inference, which could differ from the labeled training data and make these models fail to predict such new anomalies. In this paper, we study a novel problem of unsupervised time series anomaly prediction. We provide a theoretical analysis and propose Importance-based Generative Contrastive Learning (IGCL) to address the aforementioned problems. IGCL distinguishes between normal and anomaly precursors, which are generated by our anomaly precursor pattern generation module. To address the efficiency issues caused by the potential complex anomaly precursor combinations, we propose a memory bank with importance-based scores to adaptively store representative anomaly precursors and generate more complicated anomaly precursors. Extensive experiments on seven benchmark datasets show our method outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on unsupervised time series anomaly prediction problems.

MultiRC: Joint Learning for Time Series Anomaly Prediction and Detection with Multi-scale Reconstructive Contrast

Many methods have been proposed for unsupervised time series anomaly detection. Despite some progress, research on predicting future anomalies is still relatively scarce. Predicting anomalies is particularly challenging due to the diverse reaction time and the lack of labeled data. To address these challenges, we propose MultiRC to integrate reconstructive and contrastive learning for joint learning of anomaly prediction and detection, with multi-scale structure and adaptive dominant period mask to deal with the diverse reaction time. MultiRC also generates negative samples to provide essential training momentum for the anomaly prediction tasks and prevent model degradation. We evaluate seven benchmark datasets from different fields. For both anomaly prediction and detection tasks, MultiRC outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods.

CATCH: Channel-Aware multivariate Time Series Anomaly Detection via Frequency Patching

Anomaly detection in multivariate time series is challenging as heterogeneous subsequence anomalies may occur. Reconstruction-based methods, which focus on learning nomral patterns in the frequency domain to detect diverse abnormal subsequences, achieve promising resutls, while still falling short on capturing fine-grained frequency characteristics and channel correlations. To contend with the limitations, we introduce CATCH, a framework based on frequency patching. We propose to patchify the frequency domain into frequency bands, which enhances its ability to capture fine-grained frequency characteristics. To perceive appropriate channel correlations, we propose a Channel Fusion Module (CFM), which features a patch-wise mask generator and a masked-attention mechanism. Driven by a bi-level multi-objective optimization algorithm, the CFM is encouraged to iteratively discover appropriate patch-wise channel correlations, and to cluster relevant channels while isolating adverse effects from irrelevant channels. Extensive experiments on 9 real-world datasets and 12 synthetic datasets demonstrate that CATCH achieves state-of-the-art performance.

FoundTS: Comprehensive and Unified Benchmarking of Foundation Models for Time Series Forecasting

Time Series Forecasting (TSF) is key functionality in numerous fields, including in finance, weather services, and energy management. While TSF methods are emerging these days, many of them require domain-specific data collection and model training and struggle with poor generalization performance on new domains. Foundation models aim to overcome this limitation. Pre-trained on large-scale language or time series data, they exhibit promising inferencing capabilities in new or unseen data. This has spurred a surge in new TSF foundation models. We propose a new benchmark, FoundTS, to enable thorough and fair evaluation and comparison of such models. FoundTS covers a variety of TSF foundation models, including those based on large language models and those pretrained on time series. Next, FoundTS supports different forecasting strategies, including zero-shot, few-shot, and full-shot, thereby facilitating more thorough evaluations. Finally, FoundTS offers a pipeline that standardizes evaluation processes such as dataset splitting, loading, normalization, and few-shot sampling, thereby facilitating fair evaluations. Building on this, we report on an extensive evaluation of TSF foundation models on a broad range of datasets from diverse domains and with different statistical characteristics. Specifically, we identify pros and cons and inherent limitations of existing foundation models, and we identify directions for future model design. We make our code and datasets available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/FoundTS-C2B0.

Orca: Ocean Significant Wave Height Estimation with Spatio-temporally Aware Large Language Models

Significant wave height (SWH) is a vital metric in marine science, and accurate SWH estimation is crucial for various applications, e.g., marine energy development, fishery, early warning systems for potential risks, etc. Traditional SWH estimation methods that are based on numerical models and physical theories are hindered by computational inefficiencies. Recently, machine learning has emerged as an appealing alternative to improve accuracy and reduce computational time. However, due to limited observational technology and high costs, the scarcity of real-world data restricts the potential of machine learning models. To overcome these limitations, we propose an ocean SWH estimation framework, namely Orca. Specifically, Orca enhances the limited spatio-temporal reasoning abilities of classic LLMs with a novel spatiotemporal aware encoding module. By segmenting the limited buoy observational data temporally, encoding the buoys' locations spatially, and designing prompt templates, Orca capitalizes on the robust generalization ability of LLMs to estimate significant wave height effectively with limited data. Experimental results on the Gulf of Mexico demonstrate that Orca achieves state-of-the-art performance in SWH estimation.

Towards a General Time Series Anomaly Detector with Adaptive Bottlenecks and Dual Adversarial Decoders

Time series anomaly detection plays a vital role in a wide range of applications. Existing methods require training one specific model for each dataset, which exhibits limited generalization capability across different target datasets, hindering anomaly detection performance in various scenarios with scarce training data. Aiming at this problem, we propose constructing a general time series anomaly detection model, which is pre-trained on extensive multi-domain datasets and can subsequently apply to a multitude of downstream scenarios. The significant divergence of time series data across different domains presents two primary challenges in building such a general model: (1) meeting the diverse requirements of appropriate information bottlenecks tailored to different datasets in one unified model, and (2) enabling distinguishment between multiple normal and abnormal patterns, both are crucial for effective anomaly detection in various target scenarios. To tackle these two challenges, we propose a General time series anomaly Detector with Adaptive Bottlenecks and Dual Adversarial Decoders (DADA), which enables flexible selection of bottlenecks based on different data and explicitly enhances clear differentiation between normal and abnormal series. We conduct extensive experiments on nine target datasets from different domains. After pre-training on multi-domain data, DADA, serving as a zero-shot anomaly detector for these datasets, still achieves competitive or even superior results compared to those models tailored to each specific dataset.

ROSE: Register Assisted General Time Series Forecasting with Decomposed Frequency Learning

With the increasing collection of time series data from various domains, there arises a strong demand for general time series forecasting models pre-trained on a large number of time-series datasets to support a variety of downstream prediction tasks. Enabling general time series forecasting faces two challenges: how to obtain unified representations from multi-domian time series data, and how to capture domain-specific features from time series data across various domains for adaptive transfer in downstream tasks. To address these challenges, we propose a Register Assisted General Time Series Forecasting Model with Decomposed Frequency Learning (ROSE), a novel pre-trained model for time series forecasting. ROSE employs Decomposed Frequency Learning for the pre-training task, which decomposes coupled semantic and periodic information in time series with frequency-based masking and reconstruction to obtain unified representations across domains. We also equip ROSE with a Time Series Register, which learns to generate a register codebook to capture domain-specific representations during pre-training and enhances domain-adaptive transfer by selecting related register tokens on downstream tasks. After pre-training on large-scale time series data, ROSE achieves state-of-the-art forecasting performance on 8 real-world benchmarks. Remarkably, even in few-shot scenarios, it demonstrates competitive or superior performance compared to existing methods trained with full data.

A Unified Replay-based Continuous Learning Framework for Spatio-Temporal Prediction on Streaming Data

The widespread deployment of wireless and mobile devices results in a proliferation of spatio-temporal data that is used in applications, e.g., traffic prediction, human mobility mining, and air quality prediction, where spatio-temporal prediction is often essential to enable safety, predictability, or reliability. Many recent proposals that target deep learning for spatio-temporal prediction suffer from so-called catastrophic forgetting, where previously learned knowledge is entirely forgotten when new data arrives. Such proposals may experience deteriorating prediction performance when applied in settings where data streams into the system. To enable spatio-temporal prediction on streaming data, we propose a unified replay-based continuous learning framework. The framework includes a replay buffer of previously learned samples that are fused with training data using a spatio-temporal mixup mechanism in order to preserve historical knowledge effectively, thus avoiding catastrophic forgetting. To enable holistic representation preservation, the framework also integrates a general spatio-temporal autoencoder with a carefully designed spatio-temporal simple siamese (STSimSiam) network that aims to ensure prediction accuracy and avoid holistic feature loss by means of mutual information maximization. The framework further encompasses five spatio-temporal data augmentation methods to enhance the performance of STSimSiam. Extensive experiments on real data offer insight into the effectiveness of the proposed framework.

QCore: Data-Efficient, On-Device Continual Calibration for Quantized Models -- Extended Version

We are witnessing an increasing availability of streaming data that may contain valuable information on the underlying processes. It is thus attractive to be able to deploy machine learning models on edge devices near sensors such that decisions can be made instantaneously, rather than first having to transmit incoming data to servers. To enable deployment on edge devices with limited storage and computational capabilities, the full-precision parameters in standard models can be quantized to use fewer bits. The resulting quantized models are then calibrated using back-propagation and full training data to ensure accuracy. This one-time calibration works for deployments in static environments. However, model deployment in dynamic edge environments call for continual calibration to adaptively adjust quantized models to fit new incoming data, which may have different distributions. The first difficulty in enabling continual calibration on the edge is that the full training data may be too large and thus not always available on edge devices. The second difficulty is that the use of back-propagation on the edge for repeated calibration is too expensive. We propose QCore to enable continual calibration on the edge. First, it compresses the full training data into a small subset to enable effective calibration of quantized models with different bit-widths. We also propose means of updating the subset when new streaming data arrives to reflect changes in the environment, while not forgetting earlier training data. Second, we propose a small bit-flipping network that works with the subset to update quantized model parameters, thus enabling efficient continual calibration without back-propagation. An experimental study, conducted with real-world data in a continual learning setting, offers insight into the properties of QCore and shows that it is capable of outperforming strong baseline methods.