Revisiting Dynamic Graph Clustering via Matrix Factorization

Dynamic graph clustering aims to detect and track time-varying clusters in dynamic graphs, revealing the evolutionary mechanisms of complex real-world dynamic systems. Matrix factorization-based methods are promising approaches for this task; however, these methods often struggle with scalability and can be time-consuming when applied to large-scale dynamic graphs. Moreover, they tend to lack robustness and are vulnerable to real-world noisy data. To address these issues, we make three key contributions. First, to improve scalability, we propose temporal separated matrix factorization, where a single matrix is divided into multiple smaller matrices for independent factorization, resulting in faster computation. Second, to improve robustness, we introduce bi-clustering regularization, which jointly optimizes graph embedding and clustering, thereby filtering out noisy features from the graph embeddings. Third, to further enhance effectiveness and efficiency, we propose selective embedding updating, where we update only the embeddings of dynamic nodes while the embeddings of static nodes are fixed among different timestamps. Experimental results on six synthetic and five real-world benchmarks demonstrate the scalability, robustness and effectiveness of our proposed method. Source code is available at https://github.com/Clearloveyuan/DyG-MF.

CausalMob: Causal Human Mobility Prediction with LLMs-derived Human Intentions toward Public Events

Large-scale human mobility exhibits spatial and temporal patterns that can assist policymakers in decision making. Although traditional prediction models attempt to capture these patterns, they often interfered by non-periodic public events, such as disasters and occasional celebrations. Since regular human mobility patterns are heavily affected by these events, estimating their causal effects is critical to accurate mobility predictions. Although news articles provide unique perspectives on these events in an unstructured format, processing is a challenge. In this study, we propose a causality-augmented prediction model, called \textbf{CausalMob}, to analyze the causal effects of public events. We first utilize large language models (LLMs) to extract human intentions from news articles and transform them into features that act as causal treatments. Next, the model learns representations of spatio-temporal regional covariates from multiple data sources to serve as confounders for causal inference. Finally, we present a causal effect estimation framework to ensure event features remain independent of confounders during prediction. Based on large-scale real-world data, the experimental results show that the proposed model excels in human mobility prediction, outperforming state-of-the-art models.

Unveiling the Inflexibility of Adaptive Embedding in Traffic Forecasting

Spatiotemporal Graph Neural Networks (ST-GNNs) and Transformers have shown significant promise in traffic forecasting by effectively modeling temporal and spatial correlations. However, rapid urbanization in recent years has led to dynamic shifts in traffic patterns and travel demand, posing major challenges for accurate long-term traffic prediction. The generalization capability of ST-GNNs in extended temporal scenarios and cross-city applications remains largely unexplored. In this study, we evaluate state-of-the-art models on an extended traffic benchmark and observe substantial performance degradation in existing ST-GNNs over time, which we attribute to their limited inductive capabilities. Our analysis reveals that this degradation stems from an inability to adapt to evolving spatial relationships within urban environments. To address this limitation, we reconsider the design of adaptive embeddings and propose a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) embedding approach that enables models to adapt to new scenarios without retraining. We incorporate PCA embeddings into existing ST-GNN and Transformer architectures, achieving marked improvements in performance. Notably, PCA embeddings allow for flexibility in graph structures between training and testing, enabling models trained on one city to perform zero-shot predictions on other cities. This adaptability demonstrates the potential of PCA embeddings in enhancing the robustness and generalization of spatiotemporal models.

Instruction-Tuning Llama-3-8B Excels in City-Scale Mobility Prediction

Human mobility prediction plays a critical role in applications such as disaster response, urban planning, and epidemic forecasting. Traditional methods often rely on designing crafted, domain-specific models, and typically focus on short-term predictions, which struggle to generalize across diverse urban environments. In this study, we introduce Llama-3-8B-Mob, a large language model fine-tuned with instruction tuning, for long-term citywide mobility prediction -- in a Q&A manner. We validate our approach using large-scale human mobility data from four metropolitan areas in Japan, focusing on predicting individual trajectories over the next 15 days. The results demonstrate that Llama-3-8B-Mob excels in modeling long-term human mobility -- surpassing the state-of-the-art on multiple prediction metrics. It also displays strong zero-shot generalization capabilities -- effectively generalizing to other cities even when fine-tuned only on limited samples from a single city. Source codes are available at https://github.com/TANGHULU6/Llama3-8B-Mob.

Extracting Spatiotemporal Data from Gradients with Large Language Models

Recent works show that sensitive user data can be reconstructed from gradient updates, breaking the key privacy promise of federated learning. While success was demonstrated primarily on image data, these methods do not directly transfer to other domains, such as spatiotemporal data. To understand privacy risks in spatiotemporal federated learning, we first propose Spatiotemporal Gradient Inversion Attack (ST-GIA), a gradient attack algorithm tailored to spatiotemporal data that successfully reconstructs the original location from gradients. Furthermore, the absence of priors in attacks on spatiotemporal data has hindered the accurate reconstruction of real client data. To address this limitation, we propose ST-GIA+, which utilizes an auxiliary language model to guide the search for potential locations, thereby successfully reconstructing the original data from gradients. In addition, we design an adaptive defense strategy to mitigate gradient inversion attacks in spatiotemporal federated learning. By dynamically adjusting the perturbation levels, we can offer tailored protection for varying rounds of training data, thereby achieving a better trade-off between privacy and utility than current state-of-the-art methods. Through intensive experimental analysis on three real-world datasets, we reveal that the proposed defense strategy can well preserve the utility of spatiotemporal federated learning with effective security protection.

Taming the Long Tail in Human Mobility Prediction

With the popularity of location-based services, human mobility prediction plays a key role in enhancing personalized navigation, optimizing recommendation systems, and facilitating urban mobility and planning. This involves predicting a user's next POI (point-of-interest) visit using their past visit history. However, the uneven distribution of visitations over time and space, namely the long-tail problem in spatial distribution, makes it difficult for AI models to predict those POIs that are less visited by humans. In light of this issue, we propose the Long-Tail Adjusted Next POI Prediction (LoTNext) framework for mobility prediction, combining a Long-Tailed Graph Adjustment module to reduce the impact of the long-tailed nodes in the user-POI interaction graph and a novel Long-Tailed Loss Adjustment module to adjust loss by logit score and sample weight adjustment strategy. Also, we employ the auxiliary prediction task to enhance generalization and accuracy. Our experiments with two real-world trajectory datasets demonstrate that LoTNext significantly surpasses existing state-of-the-art works. Our code is available at https://github.com/Yukayo/LoTNext.

SIMformer: Single-Layer Vanilla Transformer Can Learn Free-Space Trajectory Similarity

Free-space trajectory similarity calculation, e.g., DTW, Hausdorff, and Frechet, often incur quadratic time complexity, thus learning-based methods have been proposed to accelerate the computation. The core idea is to train an encoder to transform trajectories into representation vectors and then compute vector similarity to approximate the ground truth. However, existing methods face dual challenges of effectiveness and efficiency: 1) they all utilize Euclidean distance to compute representation similarity, which leads to the severe curse of dimensionality issue -- reducing the distinguishability among representations and significantly affecting the accuracy of subsequent similarity search tasks; 2) most of them are trained in triplets manner and often necessitate additional information which downgrades the efficiency; 3) previous studies, while emphasizing the scalability in terms of efficiency, overlooked the deterioration of effectiveness when the dataset size grows. To cope with these issues, we propose a simple, yet accurate, fast, scalable model that only uses a single-layer vanilla transformer encoder as the feature extractor and employs tailored representation similarity functions to approximate various ground truth similarity measures. Extensive experiments demonstrate our model significantly mitigates the curse of dimensionality issue and outperforms the state-of-the-arts in effectiveness, efficiency, and scalability.

Towards Neural Scaling Laws for Time Series Foundation Models

Scaling laws offer valuable insights into the design of time series foundation models (TSFMs). However, previous research has largely focused on the scaling laws of TSFMs for in-distribution (ID) data, leaving their out-of-distribution (OOD) scaling behavior and the influence of model architectures less explored. In this work, we examine two common TSFM architectures, encoder-only and decoder-only Transformers, and investigate their scaling behavior on both ID and OOD data. These models are trained and evaluated across varying parameter counts, compute budgets, and dataset sizes. Our experiments reveal that the log-likelihood loss of TSFMs exhibits similar scaling behavior in both OOD and ID settings. We further compare the scaling properties across different architectures, incorporating two state-of-the-art TSFMs as case studies, showing that model architecture plays a significant role in scaling. The encoder-only Transformers demonstrate better scalability than the decoder-only Transformers, while the architectural enhancements in the two advanced TSFMs primarily improve ID performance but reduce OOD scalability. While scaling up TSFMs is expected to drive performance breakthroughs, the lack of a comprehensive understanding of TSFM scaling laws has hindered the development of a robust framework to guide model scaling. We fill this gap in this work by synthesizing our findings and providing practical guidelines for designing and scaling larger TSFMs with enhanced model capabilities.

Diffusion Models in 3D Vision: A Survey

In recent years, 3D vision has become a crucial field within computer vision, powering a wide range of applications such as autonomous driving, robotics, augmented reality (AR), and medical imaging. This field relies on the accurate perception, understanding, and reconstruction of 3D scenes from 2D data sources like images and videos. Diffusion models, originally designed for 2D generative tasks, offer the potential for more flexible, probabilistic approaches that can better capture the variability and uncertainty present in real-world 3D data. However, traditional methods often struggle with efficiency and scalability. In this paper, we review the state-of-the-art approaches that leverage diffusion models for 3D visual tasks, including but not limited to 3D object generation, shape completion, point cloud reconstruction, and scene understanding. We provide an in-depth discussion of the underlying mathematical principles of diffusion models, outlining their forward and reverse processes, as well as the various architectural advancements that enable these models to work with 3D datasets. We also discuss the key challenges in applying diffusion models to 3D vision, such as handling occlusions and varying point densities, and the computational demands of high-dimensional data. Finally, we discuss potential solutions, including improving computational efficiency, enhancing multimodal fusion, and exploring the use of large-scale pretraining for better generalization across 3D tasks. This paper serves as a foundation for future exploration and development in this rapidly evolving field.

On Feature Decorrelation in Cloth-Changing Person Re-identification

Cloth-changing person re-identification (CC-ReID) poses a significant challenge in computer vision. A prevailing approach is to prompt models to concentrate on causal attributes, like facial features and hairstyles, rather than confounding elements such as clothing appearance. Traditional methods to achieve this involve integrating multi-modality data or employing manually annotated clothing labels, which tend to complicate the model and require extensive human effort. In our study, we demonstrate that simply reducing feature correlations during training can significantly enhance the baseline model's performance. We theoretically elucidate this effect and introduce a novel regularization technique based on density ratio estimation. This technique aims to minimize feature correlation in the training process of cloth-changing ReID baselines. Our approach is model-independent, offering broad enhancements without needing additional data or labels. We validate our method through comprehensive experiments on prevalent CC-ReID datasets, showing its effectiveness in improving baseline models' generalization capabilities.