ElasTST: Towards Robust Varied-Horizon Forecasting with Elastic Time-Series Transformer

Numerous industrial sectors necessitate models capable of providing robust forecasts across various horizons. Despite the recent strides in crafting specific architectures for time-series forecasting and developing pre-trained universal models, a comprehensive examination of their capability in accommodating varied-horizon forecasting during inference is still lacking. This paper bridges this gap through the design and evaluation of the Elastic Time-Series Transformer (ElasTST). The ElasTST model incorporates a non-autoregressive design with placeholders and structured self-attention masks, warranting future outputs that are invariant to adjustments in inference horizons. A tunable version of rotary position embedding is also integrated into ElasTST to capture time-series-specific periods and enhance adaptability to different horizons. Additionally, ElasTST employs a multi-scale patch design, effectively integrating both fine-grained and coarse-grained information. During the training phase, ElasTST uses a horizon reweighting strategy that approximates the effect of random sampling across multiple horizons with a single fixed horizon setting. Through comprehensive experiments and comparisons with state-of-the-art time-series architectures and contemporary foundation models, we demonstrate the efficacy of ElasTST's unique design elements. Our findings position ElasTST as a robust solution for the practical necessity of varied-horizon forecasting.

Pre-trained Molecular Language Models with Random Functional Group Masking

Recent advancements in computational chemistry have leveraged the power of trans-former-based language models, such as MoLFormer, pre-trained using a vast amount of simplified molecular-input line-entry system (SMILES) sequences, to understand and predict molecular properties and activities, a critical step in fields like drug discovery and materials science. To further improve performance, researchers have introduced graph neural networks with graph-based molecular representations, such as GEM, incorporating the topology, geometry, 2D or even 3D structures of molecules into pre-training. While most of molecular graphs in existing studies were automatically converted from SMILES sequences, it is to assume that transformer-based language models might be able to implicitly learn structure-aware representations from SMILES sequences. In this paper, we propose \ours{} -- a SMILES-based \underline{\em M}olecular \underline{\em L}anguage \underline{\em M}odel, which randomly masking SMILES subsequences corresponding to specific molecular \underline{\em F}unctional \underline{\em G}roups to incorporate structure information of atoms during the pre-training phase. This technique aims to compel the model to better infer molecular structures and properties, thus enhancing its predictive capabilities. Extensive experimental evaluations across 11 benchmark classification and regression tasks in the chemical domain demonstrate the robustness and superiority of \ours{}. Our findings reveal that \ours{} outperforms existing pre-training models, either based on SMILES or graphs, in 9 out of the 11 downstream tasks, ranking as a close second in the remaining ones.

Generative AI in Health Economics and Outcomes Research: A Taxonomy of Key Definitions and Emerging Applications, an ISPOR Working Group Report

Objective: This article offers a taxonomy of generative artificial intelligence (AI) for health economics and outcomes research (HEOR), explores its emerging applications, and outlines methods to enhance the accuracy and reliability of AI-generated outputs. Methods: The review defines foundational generative AI concepts and highlights current HEOR applications, including systematic literature reviews, health economic modeling, real-world evidence generation, and dossier development. Approaches such as prompt engineering (zero-shot, few-shot, chain-of-thought, persona pattern prompting), retrieval-augmented generation, model fine-tuning, and the use of domain-specific models are introduced to improve AI accuracy and reliability. Results: Generative AI shows significant potential in HEOR, enhancing efficiency, productivity, and offering novel solutions to complex challenges. Foundation models are promising in automating complex tasks, though challenges remain in scientific reliability, bias, interpretability, and workflow integration. The article discusses strategies to improve the accuracy of these AI tools. Conclusion: Generative AI could transform HEOR by increasing efficiency and accuracy across various applications. However, its full potential can only be realized by building HEOR expertise and addressing the limitations of current AI technologies. As AI evolves, ongoing research and innovation will shape its future role in the field.

C-MORL: Multi-Objective Reinforcement Learning through Efficient Discovery of Pareto Front

Multi-objective reinforcement learning (MORL) excels at handling rapidly changing preferences in tasks that involve multiple criteria, even for unseen preferences. However, previous dominating MORL methods typically generate a fixed policy set or preference-conditioned policy through multiple training iterations exclusively for sampled preference vectors, and cannot ensure the efficient discovery of the Pareto front. Furthermore, integrating preferences into the input of policy or value functions presents scalability challenges, in particular as the dimension of the state and preference space grow, which can complicate the learning process and hinder the algorithm's performance on more complex tasks. To address these issues, we propose a two-stage Pareto front discovery algorithm called Constrained MORL (C-MORL), which serves as a seamless bridge between constrained policy optimization and MORL. Concretely, a set of policies is trained in parallel in the initialization stage, with each optimized towards its individual preference over the multiple objectives. Then, to fill the remaining vacancies in the Pareto front, the constrained optimization steps are employed to maximize one objective while constraining the other objectives to exceed a predefined threshold. Empirically, compared to recent advancements in MORL methods, our algorithm achieves more consistent and superior performances in terms of hypervolume, expected utility, and sparsity on both discrete and continuous control tasks, especially with numerous objectives (up to nine objectives in our experiments).

FlashMask: Efficient and Rich Mask Extension of FlashAttention

The computational and memory demands of vanilla attention scale quadratically with the sequence length $N$, posing significant challenges for processing long sequences in Transformer models. FlashAttention alleviates these challenges by eliminating the $O(N^2)$ memory dependency and reducing attention latency through IO-aware memory optimizations. However, its native support for certain attention mask types is limited, and it does not inherently accommodate more complex masking requirements. Previous approaches resort to using dense masks with $O(N^2)$ memory complexity, leading to inefficiencies. In this paper, we propose FlashMask, an extension of FlashAttention that introduces a column-wise sparse representation of attention masks. This approach efficiently represents a wide range of mask types and facilitates the development of optimized kernel implementations. By adopting this novel representation, FlashMask achieves linear memory complexity $O(N)$, suitable for modeling long-context sequences. Moreover, this representation enables kernel optimizations that eliminate unnecessary computations by leveraging sparsity in the attention mask, without sacrificing computational accuracy, resulting in higher computational efficiency. We evaluate FlashMask's performance in fine-tuning and alignment training of LLMs such as SFT, LoRA, DPO, and RM. FlashMask achieves significant throughput improvements, with end-to-end speedups ranging from 1.65x to 3.22x compared to existing FlashAttention dense method. Additionally, our kernel-level comparisons demonstrate that FlashMask surpasses the latest counterpart, FlexAttention, by 12.1% to 60.7% in terms of kernel TFLOPs/s, achieving 37.8% to 62.3% of the theoretical maximum FLOPs/s on the A100 GPU. The code is open-sourced on PaddlePaddle and integrated into PaddleNLP, supporting models with over 100 billion parameters for contexts up to 128K tokens.

Generative Pre-trained Ranking Model with Over-parameterization at Web-Scale (Extended Abstract)

Learning to rank (LTR) is widely employed in web searches to prioritize pertinent webpages from retrieved content based on input queries. However, traditional LTR models encounter two principal obstacles that lead to suboptimal performance: (1) the lack of well-annotated query-webpage pairs with ranking scores covering a diverse range of search query popularities, which hampers their ability to address queries across the popularity spectrum, and (2) inadequately trained models that fail to induce generalized representations for LTR, resulting in overfitting. To address these challenges, we propose a \emph{\uline{G}enerative \uline{S}emi-\uline{S}upervised \uline{P}re-trained} (GS2P) LTR model. We conduct extensive offline experiments on both a publicly available dataset and a real-world dataset collected from a large-scale search engine. Furthermore, we deploy GS2P in a large-scale web search engine with realistic traffic, where we observe significant improvements in the real-world application.

WeatherReal: A Benchmark Based on In-Situ Observations for Evaluating Weather Models

In recent years, AI-based weather forecasting models have matched or even outperformed numerical weather prediction systems. However, most of these models have been trained and evaluated on reanalysis datasets like ERA5. These datasets, being products of numerical models, often diverge substantially from actual observations in some crucial variables like near-surface temperature, wind, precipitation and clouds - parameters that hold significant public interest. To address this divergence, we introduce WeatherReal, a novel benchmark dataset for weather forecasting, derived from global near-surface in-situ observations. WeatherReal also features a publicly accessible quality control and evaluation framework. This paper details the sources and processing methodologies underlying the dataset, and further illustrates the advantage of in-situ observations in capturing hyper-local and extreme weather through comparative analyses and case studies. Using WeatherReal, we evaluated several data-driven models and compared them with leading numerical models. Our work aims to advance the AI-based weather forecasting research towards a more application-focused and operation-ready approach.

Enhancing Cross-domain Pre-Trained Decision Transformers with Adaptive Attention

Recently, the pre-training of decision transformers (DT) using a different domain, such as natural language text, has generated significant attention in offline reinforcement learning (Offline RL). Although this cross-domain pre-training approach achieves superior performance compared to training from scratch in environments required short-term planning ability, the mechanisms by which pre-training benefits the fine-tuning phase remain unclear. Furthermore, we point out that the cross-domain pre-training approach hinders the extraction of distant information in environments like PointMaze that require long-term planning ability, leading to performance that is much worse than training DT from scratch. This work first analyzes these issues and found that Markov Matrix, a component that exists in pre-trained attention heads, is the key to explain the significant performance disparity of pre-trained models in different planning abilities. Inspired by our analysis, we propose a general method GPT-DTMA, which equips a pre-trained DT with Mixture of Attention (MoA), to enable adaptive learning and accommodating diverse attention requirements during fine-tuning. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the effectiveness of GPT-DTMA: it achieves superior performance in short-term environments compared to baselines, and in long-term environments, it mitigates the negative impact caused by Markov Matrix, achieving results comparable to those of DT trained from scratch.

Compositional 3D-aware Video Generation with LLM Director

Significant progress has been made in text-to-video generation through the use of powerful generative models and large-scale internet data. However, substantial challenges remain in precisely controlling individual concepts within the generated video, such as the motion and appearance of specific characters and the movement of viewpoints. In this work, we propose a novel paradigm that generates each concept in 3D representation separately and then composes them with priors from Large Language Models (LLM) and 2D diffusion models. Specifically, given an input textual prompt, our scheme consists of three stages: 1) We leverage LLM as the director to first decompose the complex query into several sub-prompts that indicate individual concepts within the video~(\textit{e.g.}, scene, objects, motions), then we let LLM to invoke pre-trained expert models to obtain corresponding 3D representations of concepts. 2) To compose these representations, we prompt multi-modal LLM to produce coarse guidance on the scales and coordinates of trajectories for the objects. 3) To make the generated frames adhere to natural image distribution, we further leverage 2D diffusion priors and use Score Distillation Sampling to refine the composition. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method can generate high-fidelity videos from text with diverse motion and flexible control over each concept. Project page: \url{https://aka.ms/c3v}.

Collaborative Evolving Strategy for Automatic Data-Centric Development

Artificial Intelligence (AI) significantly influences many fields, largely thanks to the vast amounts of high-quality data for machine learning models. The emphasis is now on a data-centric AI strategy, prioritizing data development over model design progress. Automating this process is crucial. In this paper, we serve as the first work to introduce the automatic data-centric development (AD^2) task and outline its core challenges, which require domain-experts-like task scheduling and implementation capability, largely unexplored by previous work. By leveraging the strong complex problem-solving capabilities of large language models (LLMs), we propose an LLM-based autonomous agent, equipped with a strategy named Collaborative Knowledge-STudying-Enhanced Evolution by Retrieval (Co-STEER), to simultaneously address all the challenges. Specifically, our proposed Co-STEER agent enriches its domain knowledge through our proposed evolving strategy and develops both its scheduling and implementation skills by accumulating and retrieving domain-specific practical experience. With an improved schedule, the capability for implementation accelerates. Simultaneously, as implementation feedback becomes more thorough, the scheduling accuracy increases. These two capabilities evolve together through practical feedback, enabling a collaborative evolution process. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that our Co-STEER agent breaks new ground in AD^2 research, possesses strong evolvable schedule and implementation ability, and demonstrates the significant effectiveness of its components. Our Co-STEER paves the way for AD^2 advancements.