Transfer Learning for Loan Recovery Prediction under Distribution Shifts with Heterogeneous Feature Spaces

Accurate forecasting of recovery rates (RR) is central to credit risk management and regulatory capital determination. In many loan portfolios, however, RR modeling is constrained by data scarcity arising from infrequent default events. Transfer learning (TL) offers a promising avenue to mitigate this challenge by exploiting information from related but richer source domains, yet its effectiveness critically depends on the presence and strength of distributional shifts, and on potential heterogeneity between source and target feature spaces. This paper introduces FT-MDN-Transformer, a mixture-density tabular Transformer architecture specifically designed for TL in RR forecasting across heterogeneous feature sets. The model produces both loan-level point estimates and portfolio-level predictive distributions, thereby supporting a wide range of practical RR forecasting applications. We evaluate the proposed approach in a controlled Monte Carlo simulation that facilitates systematic variation of covariate, conditional, and label shifts, as well as in a real-world transfer setting using the Global Credit Data (GCD) loan dataset as source and a novel bonds dataset as target. Our results show that FT-MDN-Transformer outperforms baseline models when target-domain data are limited, with particularly pronounced gains under covariate and conditional shifts, while label shift remains challenging. We also observe its probabilistic forecasts to closely track empirical recovery distributions, providing richer information than conventional point-prediction metrics alone. Overall, the findings highlight the potential of distribution-aware TL architectures to improve RR forecasting in data-scarce credit portfolios and offer practical insights for risk managers operating under heterogeneous data environments.

Project Imaging-X: A Survey of 1000+ Open-Access Medical Imaging Datasets for Foundation Model Development

Foundation models have demonstrated remarkable success across diverse domains and tasks, primarily due to the thrive of large-scale, diverse, and high-quality datasets. However, in the field of medical imaging, the curation and assembling of such medical datasets are highly challenging due to the reliance on clinical expertise and strict ethical and privacy constraints, resulting in a scarcity of large-scale unified medical datasets and hindering the development of powerful medical foundation models. In this work, we present the largest survey to date of medical image datasets, covering over 1,000 open-access datasets with a systematic catalog of their modalities, tasks, anatomies, annotations, limitations, and potential for integration. Our analysis exposes a landscape that is modest in scale, fragmented across narrowly scoped tasks, and unevenly distributed across organs and modalities, which in turn limits the utility of existing medical image datasets for developing versatile and robust medical foundation models. To turn fragmentation into scale, we propose a metadata-driven fusion paradigm (MDFP) that integrates public datasets with shared modalities or tasks, thereby transforming multiple small data silos into larger, more coherent resources. Building on MDFP, we release an interactive discovery portal that enables end-to-end, automated medical image dataset integration, and compile all surveyed datasets into a unified, structured table that clearly summarizes their key characteristics and provides reference links, offering the community an accessible and comprehensive repository. By charting the current terrain and offering a principled path to dataset consolidation, our survey provides a practical roadmap for scaling medical imaging corpora, supporting faster data discovery, more principled dataset creation, and more capable medical foundation models.

ProGVC: Progressive-based Generative Video Compression via Auto-Regressive Context Modeling

Perceptual video compression leverages generative priors to reconstruct realistic textures and motions at low bitrates. However, existing perceptual codecs often lack native support for variable bitrate and progressive delivery, and their generative modules are weakly coupled with entropy coding, limiting bitrate reduction. Inspired by the next-scale prediction in the Visual Auto-Regressive (VAR) models, we propose ProGVC, a Progressive-based Generative Video Compression framework that unifies progressive transmission, efficient entropy coding, and detail synthesis within a single codec. ProGVC encodes videos into hierarchical multi-scale residual token maps, enabling flexible rate adaptation by transmitting a coarse-to-fine subset of scales in a progressive manner. A Transformer-based multi-scale autoregressive context model estimates token probabilities, utilized both for efficient entropy coding of the transmitted tokens and for predicting truncated fine-scale tokens at the decoder to restore perceptual details. Extensive experiments demonstrate that as a new coding paradigm, ProGVC delivers promising perceptual compression performance at low bitrates while offering practical scalability at the same time.

Semantic One-Dimensional Tokenizer for Image Reconstruction and Generation

Visual generative models based on latent space have achieved great success, underscoring the significance of visual tokenization. Mapping images to latents boosts efficiency and enables multimodal alignment for scaling up in downstream tasks. Existing visual tokenizers primarily map images into fixed 2D spatial grids and focus on pixel-level restoration, which hinders the capture of representations with compact global semantics. To address these issues, we propose \textbf{SemTok}, a semantic one-dimensional tokenizer that compresses 2D images into 1D discrete tokens with high-level semantics. SemTok sets a new state-of-the-art in image reconstruction, achieving superior fidelity with a remarkably compact token representation. This is achieved via a synergistic framework with three key innovations: a 2D-to-1D tokenization scheme, a semantic alignment constraint, and a two-stage generative training strategy. Building on SemTok, we construct a masked autoregressive generation framework, which yields notable improvements in downstream image generation tasks. Experiments confirm the effectiveness of our semantic 1D tokenization. Our code will be open-sourced.

Fronto-parietal and fronto-temporal EEG coherence as predictive neuromarkers of transcutaneous auricular vagus nerve stimulation response in treatment-resistant schizophrenia: A machine learning study

Response variability limits the clinical utility of transcutaneous auricular vagus nerve stimulation (taVNS) for negative symptoms in treatment-resistant schizophrenia (TRS). This study aimed to develop an electroencephalography (EEG)-based machine learning (ML) model to predict individual response and explore associated neurophysiological mechanisms. We used ML to develop and validate predictive models based on pre-treatment EEG data features (power, coherence, and dynamic functional connectivity) from 50 TRS patients enrolled in the taVNS trial, within a nested cross-validation framework. Participants received 20 sessions of active or sham taVNS (n = 25 each) over two weeks, followed by a two-week follow-up. The prediction target was the percentage change in the positive and negative syndrome scale-factor score for negative symptoms (PANSS-FSNS) from baseline to post-treatment, with further evaluation of model specificity and neurophysiological relevance.The optimal model accurately predicted taVNS response in the active group, with predicted PANSS-FSNS changes strongly correlated with observed changes (r = 0.87, p < .001); permutation testing confirmed performance above chance (p < .001). Nine consistently retained features were identified, predominantly fronto-parietal and fronto-temporal coherence features. Negligible predictive performance in the sham group and failure to predict positive symptom change support the predictive specificity of this oscillatory signature for taVNS-related negative symptom improvement. Two coherence features within fronto-parietal-temporal networks showed post-taVNS changes significantly associated with symptom improvement, suggesting dual roles as predictors and potential therapeutic targets. EEG oscillatory neuromarkers enable accurate prediction of individual taVNS response in TRS, supporting mechanism-informed precision neuromodulation strategies.

Interventional Time Series Priors for Causal Foundation Models

Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) have emerged as powerful foundation models for tabular causal inference, yet their extension to time series remains limited by the absence of synthetic data generators that provide interventional targets. Existing time series benchmarks generate observational data with ground-truth causal graphs but lack the interventional data required for training causal foundation models. To address this, we propose \textbf{CausalTimePrior}, a principled framework for generating synthetic temporal structural causal models (TSCMs) with paired observational and interventional time series. Our prior supports configurable causal graph structures, nonlinear autoregressive mechanisms, regime-switching dynamics, and multiple intervention types (hard, soft, time-varying). We demonstrate that PFNs trained on CausalTimePrior can perform in-context causal effect estimation on held-out TSCMs, establishing a pathway toward foundation models for time series causal inference.

Extended to Reality: Prompt Injection in 3D Environments

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have advanced the capabilities to interpret and act on visual input in 3D environments, empowering diverse applications such as robotics and situated conversational agents. When MLLMs reason over camera-captured views of the physical world, a new attack surface emerges: an attacker can place text-bearing physical objects in the environment to override MLLMs' intended task. While prior work has studied prompt injection in the text domain and through digitally edited 2D images, it remains unclear how these attacks function in 3D physical environments. To bridge the gap, we introduce PI3D, a prompt injection attack against MLLMs in 3D environments, realized through text-bearing physical object placement rather than digital image edits. We formulate and solve the problem of identifying an effective 3D object pose (position and orientation) with injected text, where the attacker's goal is to induce the MLLM to perform the injected task while ensuring that the object placement remains physically plausible. Experiments demonstrate that PI3D is an effective attack against multiple MLLMs under diverse camera trajectories. We further evaluate existing defenses and show that they are insufficient to defend against PI3D.

ERNIE 5.0 Technical Report

In this report, we introduce ERNIE 5.0, a natively autoregressive foundation model desinged for unified multimodal understanding and generation across text, image, video, and audio. All modalities are trained from scratch under a unified next-group-of-tokens prediction objective, based on an ultra-sparse mixture-of-experts (MoE) architecture with modality-agnostic expert routing. To address practical challenges in large-scale deployment under diverse resource constraints, ERNIE 5.0 adopts a novel elastic training paradigm. Within a single pre-training run, the model learns a family of sub-models with varying depths, expert capacities, and routing sparsity, enabling flexible trade-offs among performance, model size, and inference latency in memory- or time-constrained scenarios. Moreover, we systematically address the challenges of scaling reinforcement learning to unified foundation models, thereby guaranteeing efficient and stable post-training under ultra-sparse MoE architectures and diverse multimodal settings. Extensive experiments demonstrate that ERNIE 5.0 achieves strong and balanced performance across multiple modalities. To the best of our knowledge, among publicly disclosed models, ERNIE 5.0 represents the first production-scale realization of a trillion-parameter unified autoregressive model that supports both multimodal understanding and generation. To facilitate further research, we present detailed visualizations of modality-agnostic expert routing in the unified model, alongside comprehensive empirical analysis of elastic training, aiming to offer profound insights to the community.

Predicting Mortgage Default with Machine Learning: AutoML, Class Imbalance, and Leakage Control

Mortgage default prediction is a core task in financial risk management, and machine learning models are increasingly used to estimate default probabilities and provide interpretable signals for downstream decisions. In real-world mortgage datasets, however, three factors frequently undermine evaluation validity and deployment reliability: ambiguity in default labeling, severe class imbalance, and information leakage arising from temporal structure and post-event variables. We compare multiple machine learning approaches for mortgage default prediction using a real-world loan-level dataset, with emphasis on leakage control and imbalance handling. We employ leakage-aware feature selection, a strict temporal split that constrains both origination and reporting periods, and controlled downsampling of the majority class. Across multiple positive-to-negative ratios, performance remains stable, and an AutoML approach (AutoGluon) achieves the strongest AUROC among the models evaluated. An extended and pedagogical version of this work will appear as a book chapter.

A DVL Aided Loosely Coupled Inertial Navigation Strategy for AUVs with Attitude Error Modeling and Variance Propagation

In underwater navigation systems, strap-down inertial navigation system/Doppler velocity log (SINS/DVL)-based loosely coupled architectures are widely adopted. Conventional approaches project DVL velocities from the body coordinate system to the navigation coordinate system using SINS-derived attitude; however, accumulated attitude estimation errors introduce biases into velocity projection and degrade navigation performance during long-term operation. To address this issue, two complementary improvements are introduced. First, a vehicle attitude error-aware DVL velocity transformation model is formulated by incorporating attitude error terms into the observation equation to reduce projection-induced velocity bias. Second, a covariance matrix-based variance propagation method is developed to transform DVL measurement uncertainty across coordinate systems, introducing an expectation-based attitude error compensation term to achieve statistically consistent noise modeling. Simulation and field experiment results demonstrate that both improvements individually enhance navigation accuracy and confirm that accumulated attitude errors affect both projected velocity measurements and their associated uncertainty. When jointly applied, long-term error divergence is effectively suppressed. Field experimental results show that the proposed approach achieves a 78.3% improvement in 3D position RMSE and a 71.8% reduction in the maximum component-wise position error compared with the baseline IMU+DVL method, providing a robust solution for improving long-term SINS/DVL navigation performance.