Towards Understanding Extrapolation: a Causal Lens

Canonical work handling distribution shifts typically necessitates an entire target distribution that lands inside the training distribution. However, practical scenarios often involve only a handful of target samples, potentially lying outside the training support, which requires the capability of extrapolation. In this work, we aim to provide a theoretical understanding of when extrapolation is possible and offer principled methods to achieve it without requiring an on-support target distribution. To this end, we formulate the extrapolation problem with a latent-variable model that embodies the minimal change principle in causal mechanisms. Under this formulation, we cast the extrapolation problem into a latent-variable identification problem. We provide realistic conditions on shift properties and the estimation objectives that lead to identification even when only one off-support target sample is available, tackling the most challenging scenarios. Our theory reveals the intricate interplay between the underlying manifold's smoothness and the shift properties. We showcase how our theoretical results inform the design of practical adaptation algorithms. Through experiments on both synthetic and real-world data, we validate our theoretical findings and their practical implications.

A Two-Stage Pretraining-Finetuning Framework for Treatment Effect Estimation with Unmeasured Confounding

Estimating the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) from observational data plays a crucial role in areas such as e-commerce, healthcare, and economics. Existing studies mainly rely on the strong ignorability assumption that there are no unmeasured confounders, whose presence cannot be tested from observational data and can invalidate any causal conclusion. In contrast, data collected from randomized controlled trials (RCT) do not suffer from confounding, but are usually limited by a small sample size. In this paper, we propose a two-stage pretraining-finetuning (TSPF) framework using both large-scale observational data and small-scale RCT data to estimate the CATE in the presence of unmeasured confounding. In the first stage, a foundational representation of covariates is trained to estimate counterfactual outcomes through large-scale observational data. In the second stage, we propose to train an augmented representation of the covariates, which is concatenated to the foundational representation obtained in the first stage to adjust for the unmeasured confounding. To avoid overfitting caused by the small-scale RCT data in the second stage, we further propose a partial parameter initialization approach, rather than training a separate network. The superiority of our approach is validated on two public datasets with extensive experiments. The code is available at https://github.com/zhouchuanCN/KDD25-TSPF.

HCMA-UNet: A Hybrid CNN-Mamba UNet with Inter-Slice Self-Attention for Efficient Breast Cancer Segmentation

Breast cancer lesion segmentation in DCE-MRI remains challenging due to heterogeneous tumor morphology and indistinct boundaries. To address these challenges, this study proposes a novel hybrid segmentation network, HCMA-UNet, for lesion segmentation of breast cancer. Our network consists of a lightweight CNN backbone and a Multi-view Inter-Slice Self-Attention Mamba (MISM) module. The MISM module integrates Visual State Space Block (VSSB) and Inter-Slice Self-Attention (ISSA) mechanism, effectively reducing parameters through Asymmetric Split Channel (ASC) strategy to achieve efficient tri-directional feature extraction. Our lightweight model achieves superior performance with 2.87M parameters and 126.44 GFLOPs. A Feature-guided Region-aware loss function (FRLoss) is proposed to enhance segmentation accuracy. Extensive experiments on one private and two public DCE-MRI breast cancer datasets demonstrate that our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance while maintaining computational efficiency. FRLoss also exhibits good cross-architecture generalization capabilities. The source code and dataset is available on this link.

CharacterBox: Evaluating the Role-Playing Capabilities of LLMs in Text-Based Virtual Worlds

Role-playing is a crucial capability of Large Language Models (LLMs), enabling a wide range of practical applications, including intelligent non-player characters, digital twins, and emotional companions. Evaluating this capability in LLMs is challenging due to the complex dynamics involved in role-playing, such as maintaining character fidelity throughout a storyline and navigating open-ended narratives without a definitive ground truth. Current evaluation methods, which primarily focus on question-answering or conversational snapshots, fall short of adequately capturing the nuanced character traits and behaviors essential for authentic role-playing. In this paper, we propose CharacterBox, which is a simulation sandbox designed to generate situational fine-grained character behavior trajectories. These behavior trajectories enable a more comprehensive and in-depth evaluation of role-playing capabilities. CharacterBox consists of two main components: the character agent and the narrator agent. The character agent, grounded in psychological and behavioral science, exhibits human-like behaviors, while the narrator agent coordinates interactions between character agents and environmental changes. Additionally, we introduce two trajectory-based methods that leverage CharacterBox to enhance LLM performance. To reduce costs and facilitate the adoption of CharacterBox by public communities, we fine-tune two smaller models, CharacterNR and CharacterRM, as substitutes for GPT API calls, and demonstrate their competitive performance compared to advanced GPT APIs.

FSMLP: Modelling Channel Dependencies With Simplex Theory Based Multi-Layer Perceptions In Frequency Domain

Time series forecasting (TSF) plays a crucial role in various domains, including web data analysis, energy consumption prediction, and weather forecasting. While Multi-Layer Perceptrons (MLPs) are lightweight and effective for capturing temporal dependencies, they are prone to overfitting when used to model inter-channel dependencies. In this paper, we investigate the overfitting problem in channel-wise MLPs using Rademacher complexity theory, revealing that extreme values in time series data exacerbate this issue. To mitigate this issue, we introduce a novel Simplex-MLP layer, where the weights are constrained within a standard simplex. This strategy encourages the model to learn simpler patterns and thereby reducing overfitting to extreme values. Based on the Simplex-MLP layer, we propose a novel \textbf{F}requency \textbf{S}implex \textbf{MLP} (FSMLP) framework for time series forecasting, comprising of two kinds of modules: \textbf{S}implex \textbf{C}hannel-\textbf{W}ise MLP (SCWM) and \textbf{F}requency \textbf{T}emporal \textbf{M}LP (FTM). The SCWM effectively leverages the Simplex-MLP to capture inter-channel dependencies, while the FTM is a simple yet efficient temporal MLP designed to extract temporal information from the data. Our theoretical analysis shows that the upper bound of the Rademacher Complexity for Simplex-MLP is lower than that for standard MLPs. Moreover, we validate our proposed method on seven benchmark datasets, demonstrating significant improvements in forecasting accuracy and efficiency, while also showcasing superior scalability. Additionally, we demonstrate that Simplex-MLP can improve other methods that use channel-wise MLP to achieve less overfitting and improved performance. Code are available \href{https://github.com/FMLYD/FSMLP}{\textcolor{red}{here}}.

Proactive Recommendation in Social Networks: Steering User Interest via Neighbor Influence

Recommending items solely catering to users' historical interests narrows users' horizons. Recent works have considered steering target users beyond their historical interests by directly adjusting items exposed to them. However, the recommended items for direct steering might not align perfectly with users' interests evolution, detrimentally affecting target users' experience. To avoid this issue, we propose a new task named Proactive Recommendation in Social Networks (PRSN) that indirectly steers users' interest by utilizing the influence of social neighbors, i.e., indirect steering by adjusting the exposure of a target item to target users' neighbors. The key to PRSN lies in answering an interventional question: what would a target user's feedback be on a target item if the item is exposed to the user's different neighbors? To answer this question, we resort to causal inference and formalize PRSN as: (1) estimating the potential feedback of a user on an item, under the network interference by the item's exposure to the user's neighbors; and (2) adjusting the exposure of a target item to target users' neighbors to trade off steering performance and the damage to the neighbors' experience. To this end, we propose a Neighbor Interference Recommendation (NIRec) framework with two key modules: (1)an interference representation-based estimation module for modeling potential feedback; and (2) a post-learning-based optimization module for optimizing a target item's exposure to trade off steering performance and the neighbors' experience by greedy search. We conduct extensive semi-simulation experiments based on three real-world datasets, validating the steering effectiveness of NIRec.

From MOOC to MAIC: Reshaping Online Teaching and Learning through LLM-driven Agents

Since the first instances of online education, where courses were uploaded to accessible and shared online platforms, this form of scaling the dissemination of human knowledge to reach a broader audience has sparked extensive discussion and widespread adoption. Recognizing that personalized learning still holds significant potential for improvement, new AI technologies have been continuously integrated into this learning format, resulting in a variety of educational AI applications such as educational recommendation and intelligent tutoring. The emergence of intelligence in large language models (LLMs) has allowed for these educational enhancements to be built upon a unified foundational model, enabling deeper integration. In this context, we propose MAIC (Massive AI-empowered Course), a new form of online education that leverages LLM-driven multi-agent systems to construct an AI-augmented classroom, balancing scalability with adaptivity. Beyond exploring the conceptual framework and technical innovations, we conduct preliminary experiments at Tsinghua University, one of China's leading universities. Drawing from over 100,000 learning records of more than 500 students, we obtain a series of valuable observations and initial analyses. This project will continue to evolve, ultimately aiming to establish a comprehensive open platform that supports and unifies research, technology, and applications in exploring the possibilities of online education in the era of large model AI. We envision this platform as a collaborative hub, bringing together educators, researchers, and innovators to collectively explore the future of AI-driven online education.

MM-Forecast: A Multimodal Approach to Temporal Event Forecasting with Large Language Models

We study an emerging and intriguing problem of multimodal temporal event forecasting with large language models. Compared to using text or graph modalities, the investigation of utilizing images for temporal event forecasting has not been fully explored, especially in the era of large language models (LLMs). To bridge this gap, we are particularly interested in two key questions of: 1) why images will help in temporal event forecasting, and 2) how to integrate images into the LLM-based forecasting framework. To answer these research questions, we propose to identify two essential functions that images play in the scenario of temporal event forecasting, i.e., highlighting and complementary. Then, we develop a novel framework, named MM-Forecast. It employs an Image Function Identification module to recognize these functions as verbal descriptions using multimodal large language models (MLLMs), and subsequently incorporates these function descriptions into LLM-based forecasting models. To evaluate our approach, we construct a new multimodal dataset, MidEast-TE-mm, by extending an existing event dataset MidEast-TE-mini with images. Empirical studies demonstrate that our MM-Forecast can correctly identify the image functions, and further more, incorporating these verbal function descriptions significantly improves the forecasting performance. The dataset, code, and prompts are available at https://github.com/LuminosityX/MM-Forecast.

Leveraging Weak Cross-Modal Guidance for Coherence Modelling via Iterative Learning

Cross-modal coherence modeling is essential for intelligent systems to help them organize and structure information, thereby understanding and creating content of the physical world coherently like human-beings. Previous work on cross-modal coherence modeling attempted to leverage the order information from another modality to assist the coherence recovering of the target modality. Despite of the effectiveness, labeled associated coherency information is not always available and might be costly to acquire, making the cross-modal guidance hard to leverage. To tackle this challenge, this paper explores a new way to take advantage of cross-modal guidance without gold labels on coherency, and proposes the Weak Cross-Modal Guided Ordering (WeGO) model. More specifically, it leverages high-confidence predicted pairwise order in one modality as reference information to guide the coherence modeling in another. An iterative learning paradigm is further designed to jointly optimize the coherence modeling in two modalities with selected guidance from each other. The iterative cross-modal boosting also functions in inference to further enhance coherence prediction in each modality. Experimental results on two public datasets have demonstrated that the proposed method outperforms existing methods for cross-modal coherence modeling tasks. Major technical modules have been evaluated effective through ablation studies. Codes are available at: \url{https://github.com/scvready123/IterWeGO}.

Causal Inference with Complex Treatments: A Survey

Causal inference plays an important role in explanatory analysis and decision making across various fields like statistics, marketing, health care, and education. Its main task is to estimate treatment effects and make intervention policies. Traditionally, most of the previous works typically focus on the binary treatment setting that there is only one treatment for a unit to adopt or not. However, in practice, the treatment can be much more complex, encompassing multi-valued, continuous, or bundle options. In this paper, we refer to these as complex treatments and systematically and comprehensively review the causal inference methods for addressing them. First, we formally revisit the problem definition, the basic assumptions, and their possible variations under specific conditions. Second, we sequentially review the related methods for multi-valued, continuous, and bundled treatment settings. In each situation, we tentatively divide the methods into two categories: those conforming to the unconfoundedness assumption and those violating it. Subsequently, we discuss the available datasets and open-source codes. Finally, we provide a brief summary of these works and suggest potential directions for future research.