Towards Understanding Extrapolation: a Causal Lens

Canonical work handling distribution shifts typically necessitates an entire target distribution that lands inside the training distribution. However, practical scenarios often involve only a handful of target samples, potentially lying outside the training support, which requires the capability of extrapolation. In this work, we aim to provide a theoretical understanding of when extrapolation is possible and offer principled methods to achieve it without requiring an on-support target distribution. To this end, we formulate the extrapolation problem with a latent-variable model that embodies the minimal change principle in causal mechanisms. Under this formulation, we cast the extrapolation problem into a latent-variable identification problem. We provide realistic conditions on shift properties and the estimation objectives that lead to identification even when only one off-support target sample is available, tackling the most challenging scenarios. Our theory reveals the intricate interplay between the underlying manifold's smoothness and the shift properties. We showcase how our theoretical results inform the design of practical adaptation algorithms. Through experiments on both synthetic and real-world data, we validate our theoretical findings and their practical implications.

Flow: A Modular Approach to Automated Agentic Workflow Generation

Multi-agent frameworks powered by large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated great success in automated planning and task execution. However, the effective adjustment of Agentic workflows during execution has not been well-studied. A effective workflow adjustment is crucial, as in many real-world scenarios, the initial plan must adjust to unforeseen challenges and changing conditions in real-time to ensure the efficient execution of complex tasks. In this paper, we define workflows as an activity-on-vertex (AOV) graphs. We continuously refine the workflow by dynamically adjusting task allocations based on historical performance and previous AOV with LLM agents. To further enhance system performance, we emphasize modularity in workflow design based on measuring parallelism and dependence complexity. Our proposed multi-agent framework achieved efficient sub-task concurrent execution, goal achievement, and error tolerance. Empirical results across different practical tasks demonstrate dramatic improvements in the efficiency of multi-agent frameworks through dynamic workflow updating and modularization.

SocialED: A Python Library for Social Event Detection

SocialED is a comprehensive, open-source Python library designed to support social event detection (SED) tasks, integrating 19 detection algorithms and 14 diverse datasets. It provides a unified API with detailed documentation, offering researchers and practitioners a complete solution for event detection in social media. The library is designed with modularity in mind, allowing users to easily adapt and extend components for various use cases. SocialED supports a wide range of preprocessing techniques, such as graph construction and tokenization, and includes standardized interfaces for training models and making predictions. By integrating popular deep learning frameworks, SocialED ensures high efficiency and scalability across both CPU and GPU environments. The library is built adhering to high code quality standards, including unit testing, continuous integration, and code coverage, ensuring that SocialED delivers robust, maintainable software. SocialED is publicly available at \url{https://github.com/RingBDStack/SocialED} and can be installed via PyPI.

Differentiable Causal Discovery For Latent Hierarchical Causal Models

Discovering causal structures with latent variables from observational data is a fundamental challenge in causal discovery. Existing methods often rely on constraint-based, iterative discrete searches, limiting their scalability to large numbers of variables. Moreover, these methods frequently assume linearity or invertibility, restricting their applicability to real-world scenarios. We present new theoretical results on the identifiability of nonlinear latent hierarchical causal models, relaxing previous assumptions in literature about the deterministic nature of latent variables and exogenous noise. Building on these insights, we develop a novel differentiable causal discovery algorithm that efficiently estimates the structure of such models. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to propose a differentiable causal discovery method for nonlinear latent hierarchical models. Our approach outperforms existing methods in both accuracy and scalability. We demonstrate its practical utility by learning interpretable hierarchical latent structures from high-dimensional image data and demonstrate its effectiveness on downstream tasks.

Causal Representation Learning from Multimodal Biological Observations

Prevalent in biological applications (e.g., human phenotype measurements), multimodal datasets can provide valuable insights into the underlying biological mechanisms. However, current machine learning models designed to analyze such datasets still lack interpretability and theoretical guarantees, which are essential to biological applications. Recent advances in causal representation learning have shown promise in uncovering the interpretable latent causal variables with formal theoretical certificates. Unfortunately, existing works for multimodal distributions either rely on restrictive parametric assumptions or provide rather coarse identification results, limiting their applicability to biological research which favors a detailed understanding of the mechanisms. In this work, we aim to develop flexible identification conditions for multimodal data and principled methods to facilitate the understanding of biological datasets. Theoretically, we consider a flexible nonparametric latent distribution (c.f., parametric assumptions in prior work) permitting causal relationships across potentially different modalities. We establish identifiability guarantees for each latent component, extending the subspace identification results from prior work. Our key theoretical ingredient is the structural sparsity of the causal connections among distinct modalities, which, as we will discuss, is natural for a large collection of biological systems. Empirically, we propose a practical framework to instantiate our theoretical insights. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach through extensive experiments on both numerical and synthetic datasets. Results on a real-world human phenotype dataset are consistent with established medical research, validating our theoretical and methodological framework.

Reducing Hyperparameter Tuning Costs in ML, Vision and Language Model Training Pipelines via Memoization-Awareness

The training or fine-tuning of machine learning, vision, and language models is often implemented as a pipeline: a sequence of stages encompassing data preparation, model training and evaluation. In this paper, we exploit pipeline structures to reduce the cost of hyperparameter tuning for model training/fine-tuning, which is particularly valuable for language models given their high costs in GPU-days. We propose a "memoization-aware" Bayesian Optimization (BO) algorithm, EEIPU, that works in tandem with a pipeline caching system, allowing it to evaluate significantly more hyperparameter candidates per GPU-day than other tuning algorithms. The result is better-quality hyperparameters in the same amount of search time, or equivalently, reduced search time to reach the same hyperparameter quality. In our benchmarks on machine learning (model ensembles), vision (convolutional architecture) and language (T5 architecture) pipelines, we compare EEIPU against recent BO algorithms: EEIPU produces an average of $103\%$ more hyperparameter candidates (within the same budget), and increases the validation metric by an average of $108\%$ more than other algorithms (where the increase is measured starting from the end of warm-up iterations).

$ψ$DAG: Projected Stochastic Approximation Iteration for DAG Structure Learning

Learning the structure of Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) presents a significant challenge due to the vast combinatorial search space of possible graphs, which scales exponentially with the number of nodes. Recent advancements have redefined this problem as a continuous optimization task by incorporating differentiable acyclicity constraints. These methods commonly rely on algebraic characterizations of DAGs, such as matrix exponentials, to enable the use of gradient-based optimization techniques. Despite these innovations, existing methods often face optimization difficulties due to the highly non-convex nature of DAG constraints and the per-iteration computational complexity. In this work, we present a novel framework for learning DAGs, employing a Stochastic Approximation approach integrated with Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD)-based optimization techniques. Our framework introduces new projection methods tailored to efficiently enforce DAG constraints, ensuring that the algorithm converges to a feasible local minimum. With its low iteration complexity, the proposed method is well-suited for handling large-scale problems with improved computational efficiency. We demonstrate the effectiveness and scalability of our framework through comprehensive experimental evaluations, which confirm its superior performance across various settings.

Identifying Selections for Unsupervised Subtask Discovery

When solving long-horizon tasks, it is intriguing to decompose the high-level task into subtasks. Decomposing experiences into reusable subtasks can improve data efficiency, accelerate policy generalization, and in general provide promising solutions to multi-task reinforcement learning and imitation learning problems. However, the concept of subtasks is not sufficiently understood and modeled yet, and existing works often overlook the true structure of the data generation process: subtasks are the results of a $\textit{selection}$ mechanism on actions, rather than possible underlying confounders or intermediates. Specifically, we provide a theory to identify, and experiments to verify the existence of selection variables in such data. These selections serve as subgoals that indicate subtasks and guide policy. In light of this idea, we develop a sequential non-negative matrix factorization (seq- NMF) method to learn these subgoals and extract meaningful behavior patterns as subtasks. Our empirical results on a challenging Kitchen environment demonstrate that the learned subtasks effectively enhance the generalization to new tasks in multi-task imitation learning scenarios. The codes are provided at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/Identifying\_Selections\_for\_Unsupervised\_Subtask\_Discovery/README.md.

Revisiting Differentiable Structure Learning: Inconsistency of $\ell_1$ Penalty and Beyond

Recent advances in differentiable structure learning have framed the combinatorial problem of learning directed acyclic graphs as a continuous optimization problem. Various aspects, including data standardization, have been studied to identify factors that influence the empirical performance of these methods. In this work, we investigate critical limitations in differentiable structure learning methods, focusing on settings where the true structure can be identified up to Markov equivalence classes, particularly in the linear Gaussian case. While Ng et al. (2024) highlighted potential non-convexity issues in this setting, we demonstrate and explain why the use of $\ell_1$-penalized likelihood in such cases is fundamentally inconsistent, even if the global optimum of the optimization problem can be found. To resolve this limitation, we develop a hybrid differentiable structure learning method based on $\ell_0$-penalized likelihood with hard acyclicity constraint, where the $\ell_0$ penalty can be approximated by different techniques including Gumbel-Softmax. Specifically, we first estimate the underlying moral graph, and use it to restrict the search space of the optimization problem, which helps alleviate the non-convexity issue. Experimental results show that the proposed method enhances empirical performance both before and after data standardization, providing a more reliable path for future advancements in differentiable structure learning, especially for learning Markov equivalence classes.

Causality for Large Language Models

Recent breakthroughs in artificial intelligence have driven a paradigm shift, where large language models (LLMs) with billions or trillions of parameters are trained on vast datasets, achieving unprecedented success across a series of language tasks. However, despite these successes, LLMs still rely on probabilistic modeling, which often captures spurious correlations rooted in linguistic patterns and social stereotypes, rather than the true causal relationships between entities and events. This limitation renders LLMs vulnerable to issues such as demographic biases, social stereotypes, and LLM hallucinations. These challenges highlight the urgent need to integrate causality into LLMs, moving beyond correlation-driven paradigms to build more reliable and ethically aligned AI systems. While many existing surveys and studies focus on utilizing prompt engineering to activate LLMs for causal knowledge or developing benchmarks to assess their causal reasoning abilities, most of these efforts rely on human intervention to activate pre-trained models. How to embed causality into the training process of LLMs and build more general and intelligent models remains unexplored. Recent research highlights that LLMs function as causal parrots, capable of reciting causal knowledge without truly understanding or applying it. These prompt-based methods are still limited to human interventional improvements. This survey aims to address this gap by exploring how causality can enhance LLMs at every stage of their lifecycle-from token embedding learning and foundation model training to fine-tuning, alignment, inference, and evaluation-paving the way for more interpretable, reliable, and causally-informed models. Additionally, we further outline six promising future directions to advance LLM development, enhance their causal reasoning capabilities, and address the current limitations these models face.