Horizontal and Vertical Federated Causal Structure Learning via Higher-order Cumulants

Federated causal discovery aims to uncover the causal relationships between entities while protecting data privacy, which has significant importance and numerous applications in real-world scenarios. Existing federated causal structure learning methods primarily focus on horizontal federated settings. However, in practical situations, different clients may not necessarily contain data on the same variables. In a single client, the incomplete set of variables can easily lead to spurious causal relationships, thereby affecting the information transmitted to other clients. To address this issue, we comprehensively consider causal structure learning methods under both horizontal and vertical federated settings. We provide the identification theories and methods for learning causal structure in the horizontal and vertical federal setting via higher-order cumulants. Specifically, we first aggregate higher-order cumulant information from all participating clients to construct global cumulant estimates. These global estimates are then used for recursive source identification, ultimately yielding a global causal strength matrix. Our approach not only enables the reconstruction of causal graphs but also facilitates the estimation of causal strength coefficients. Our algorithm demonstrates superior performance in experiments conducted on both synthetic data and real-world data.

Running-time Analysis of ($μ+λ$) Evolutionary Combinatorial Optimization Based on Multiple-gain Estimation

The running-time analysis of evolutionary combinatorial optimization is a fundamental topic in evolutionary computation. However, theoretical results regarding the $(\mu+\lambda)$ evolutionary algorithm (EA) for combinatorial optimization problems remain relatively scarce compared to those for simple pseudo-Boolean problems. This paper proposes a multiple-gain model to analyze the running time of EAs for combinatorial optimization problems. The proposed model is an improved version of the average gain model, which is a fitness-difference drift approach under the sigma-algebra condition to estimate the running time of evolutionary numerical optimization. The improvement yields a framework for estimating the expected first hitting time of a stochastic process in both average-case and worst-case scenarios. It also introduces novel running-time results of evolutionary combinatorial optimization, including two tighter time complexity upper bounds than the known results in the case of ($\mu+\lambda$) EA for the knapsack problem with favorably correlated weights, a closed-form expression of time complexity upper bound in the case of ($\mu+\lambda$) EA for general $k$-MAX-SAT problems and a tighter time complexity upper bounds than the known results in the case of ($\mu+\lambda$) EA for the traveling salesperson problem. Experimental results indicate that the practical running time aligns with the theoretical results, verifying that the multiple-gain model is an effective tool for running-time analysis of ($\mu+\lambda$) EA for combinatorial optimization problems.

An Experimental Approach for Running-Time Estimation of Multi-objective Evolutionary Algorithms in Numerical Optimization

Multi-objective evolutionary algorithms (MOEAs) have become essential tools for solving multi-objective optimization problems (MOPs), making their running time analysis crucial for assessing algorithmic efficiency and guiding practical applications. While significant theoretical advances have been achieved for combinatorial optimization, existing studies for numerical optimization primarily rely on algorithmic or problem simplifications, limiting their applicability to real-world scenarios. To address this gap, we propose an experimental approach for estimating upper bounds on the running time of MOEAs in numerical optimization without simplification assumptions. Our approach employs an average gain model that characterizes algorithmic progress through the Inverted Generational Distance metric. To handle the stochastic nature of MOEAs, we use statistical methods to estimate the probabilistic distribution of gains. Recognizing that gain distributions in numerical optimization exhibit irregular patterns with varying densities across different regions, we introduce an adaptive sampling method that dynamically adjusts sampling density to ensure accurate surface fitting for running time estimation. We conduct comprehensive experiments on five representative MOEAs (NSGA-II, MOEA/D, AR-MOEA, AGEMOEA-II, and PREA) using the ZDT and DTLZ benchmark suites. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in estimating upper bounds on the running time without requiring algorithmic or problem simplifications. Additionally, we provide a web-based implementation to facilitate broader adoption of our methodology. This work provides a practical complement to theoretical research on MOEAs in numerical optimization.

Causal-aware Large Language Models: Enhancing Decision-Making Through Learning, Adapting and Acting

Large language models (LLMs) have shown great potential in decision-making due to the vast amount of knowledge stored within the models. However, these pre-trained models are prone to lack reasoning abilities and are difficult to adapt to new environments, further hindering their application to complex real-world tasks. To address these challenges, inspired by the human cognitive process, we propose Causal-aware LLMs, which integrate the structural causal model (SCM) into the decision-making process to model, update, and utilize structured knowledge of the environment in a ``learning-adapting-acting" paradigm. Specifically, in the learning stage, we first utilize an LLM to extract the environment-specific causal entities and their causal relations to initialize a structured causal model of the environment. Subsequently,in the adapting stage, we update the structured causal model through external feedback about the environment, via an idea of causal intervention. Finally, in the acting stage, Causal-aware LLMs exploit structured causal knowledge for more efficient policy-making through the reinforcement learning agent. The above processes are performed iteratively to learn causal knowledge, ultimately enabling the causal-aware LLMs to achieve a more accurate understanding of the environment and make more efficient decisions. Experimental results across 22 diverse tasks within the open-world game ``Crafter" validate the effectiveness of our proposed method.

PrePrompt: Predictive prompting for class incremental learning

Class Incremental Learning (CIL) based on pre-trained models offers a promising direction for open-world continual learning. Existing methods typically rely on correlation-based strategies, where an image's classification feature is used as a query to retrieve the most related key prompts and select the corresponding value prompts for training. However, these approaches face an inherent limitation: fitting the entire feature space of all tasks with only a few trainable prompts is fundamentally challenging. We propose Predictive Prompting (PrePrompt), a novel CIL framework that circumvents correlation-based limitations by leveraging pre-trained models' natural classification ability to predict task-specific prompts. Specifically, PrePrompt decomposes CIL into a two-stage prediction framework: task-specific prompt prediction followed by label prediction. While theoretically appealing, this framework risks bias toward recent classes due to missing historical data for older classifier calibration. PrePrompt then mitigates this by incorporating feature translation, dynamically balancing stability and plasticity. Experiments across multiple benchmarks demonstrate PrePrompt's superiority over state-of-the-art prompt-based CIL methods. The code will be released upon acceptance.

Causal View of Time Series Imputation: Some Identification Results on Missing Mechanism

Time series imputation is one of the most challenge problems and has broad applications in various fields like health care and the Internet of Things. Existing methods mainly aim to model the temporally latent dependencies and the generation process from the observed time series data. In real-world scenarios, different types of missing mechanisms, like MAR (Missing At Random), and MNAR (Missing Not At Random) can occur in time series data. However, existing methods often overlook the difference among the aforementioned missing mechanisms and use a single model for time series imputation, which can easily lead to misleading results due to mechanism mismatching. In this paper, we propose a framework for time series imputation problem by exploring Different Missing Mechanisms (DMM in short) and tailoring solutions accordingly. Specifically, we first analyze the data generation processes with temporal latent states and missing cause variables for different mechanisms. Sequentially, we model these generation processes via variational inference and estimate prior distributions of latent variables via normalizing flow-based neural architecture. Furthermore, we establish identifiability results under the nonlinear independent component analysis framework to show that latent variables are identifiable. Experimental results show that our method surpasses existing time series imputation techniques across various datasets with different missing mechanisms, demonstrating its effectiveness in real-world applications.

STEI-PCN: an efficient pure convolutional network for traffic prediction via spatial-temporal encoding and inferring

Traffic data exhibits complex temporal, spatial, and spatial-temporal correlations. Most of models use either independent modules to separately extract temporal and spatial correlations or joint modules to synchronously extract them, without considering the spatial-temporal correlations. Moreover, models that consider joint spatial-temporal correlations (temporal, spatial, and spatial-temporal correlations) often encounter significant challenges in accuracy and computational efficiency which prevent such models from demonstrating the expected advantages of a joint spatial-temporal correlations architecture. To address these issues, this paper proposes an efficient pure convolutional network for traffic prediction via spatial-temporal encoding and inferring (STEI-PCN). The model introduces and designs a dynamic adjacency matrix inferring module based on absolute spatial and temporal coordinates, as well as relative spatial and temporal distance encoding, using a graph convolutional network combined with gating mechanism to capture local synchronous joint spatial-temporal correlations. Additionally, three layers of temporal dilated causal convolutional network are used to capture long-range temporal correlations. Finally, through multi-view collaborative prediction module, the model integrates the gated-activated original, local synchronous joint spatial-temporal, and long-range temporal features to achieve comprehensive prediction. This study conducts extensive experiments on flow datasets (PeMS03/04/07/08) and speed dataset (PeMS-Bay), covering multiple prediction horizons. The results show that STEI-PCN demonstrates competitive computational efficiency in both training and inference speeds, and achieves superior or slightly inferior to state-of-the-art (SOTA) models on most evaluation metrics.

Long-term Causal Inference via Modeling Sequential Latent Confounding

Long-term causal inference is an important but challenging problem across various scientific domains. To solve the latent confounding problem in long-term observational studies, existing methods leverage short-term experimental data. Ghassami et al. propose an approach based on the Conditional Additive Equi-Confounding Bias (CAECB) assumption, which asserts that the confounding bias in the short-term outcome is equal to that in the long-term outcome, so that the long-term confounding bias and the causal effects can be identified. While effective in certain cases, this assumption is limited to scenarios with a one-dimensional short-term outcome. In this paper, we introduce a novel assumption that extends the CAECB assumption to accommodate temporal short-term outcomes. Our proposed assumption states a functional relationship between sequential confounding biases across temporal short-term outcomes, under which we theoretically establish the identification of long-term causal effects. Based on the identification result, we develop an estimator and conduct a theoretical analysis of its asymptotic properties. Extensive experiments validate our theoretical results and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Disentangling Long-Short Term State Under Unknown Interventions for Online Time Series Forecasting

Current methods for time series forecasting struggle in the online scenario, since it is difficult to preserve long-term dependency while adapting short-term changes when data are arriving sequentially. Although some recent methods solve this problem by controlling the updates of latent states, they cannot disentangle the long/short-term states, leading to the inability to effectively adapt to nonstationary. To tackle this challenge, we propose a general framework to disentangle long/short-term states for online time series forecasting. Our idea is inspired by the observations where short-term changes can be led by unknown interventions like abrupt policies in the stock market. Based on this insight, we formalize a data generation process with unknown interventions on short-term states. Under mild assumptions, we further leverage the independence of short-term states led by unknown interventions to establish the identification theory to achieve the disentanglement of long/short-term states. Built on this theory, we develop a long short-term disentanglement model (LSTD) to extract the long/short-term states with long/short-term encoders, respectively. Furthermore, the LSTD model incorporates a smooth constraint to preserve the long-term dependencies and an interrupted dependency constraint to enforce the forgetting of short-term dependencies, together boosting the disentanglement of long/short-term states. Experimental results on several benchmark datasets show that our \textbf{LSTD} model outperforms existing methods for online time series forecasting, validating its efficacy in real-world applications.

Multi-View Attention Syntactic Enhanced Graph Convolutional Network for Aspect-based Sentiment Analysis

Aspect-based Sentiment Analysis (ABSA) is the task aimed at predicting the sentiment polarity of aspect words within sentences. Recently, incorporating graph neural networks (GNNs) to capture additional syntactic structure information in the dependency tree derived from syntactic dependency parsing has been proven to be an effective paradigm for boosting ABSA. Despite GNNs enhancing model capability by fusing more types of information, most works only utilize a single topology view of the dependency tree or simply conflate different perspectives of information without distinction, which limits the model performance. To address these challenges, in this paper, we propose a new multi-view attention syntactic enhanced graph convolutional network (MASGCN) that weighs different syntactic information of views using attention mechanisms. Specifically, we first construct distance mask matrices from the dependency tree to obtain multiple subgraph views for GNNs. To aggregate features from different views, we propose a multi-view attention mechanism to calculate the attention weights of views. Furthermore, to incorporate more syntactic information, we fuse the dependency type information matrix into the adjacency matrices and present a structural entropy loss to learn the dependency type adjacency matrix. Comprehensive experiments on four benchmark datasets demonstrate that our model outperforms state-of-the-art methods. The codes and datasets are available at https://github.com/SELGroup/MASGCN.