Disentangling Long-Short Term State Under Unknown Interventions for Online Time Series Forecasting

Current methods for time series forecasting struggle in the online scenario, since it is difficult to preserve long-term dependency while adapting short-term changes when data are arriving sequentially. Although some recent methods solve this problem by controlling the updates of latent states, they cannot disentangle the long/short-term states, leading to the inability to effectively adapt to nonstationary. To tackle this challenge, we propose a general framework to disentangle long/short-term states for online time series forecasting. Our idea is inspired by the observations where short-term changes can be led by unknown interventions like abrupt policies in the stock market. Based on this insight, we formalize a data generation process with unknown interventions on short-term states. Under mild assumptions, we further leverage the independence of short-term states led by unknown interventions to establish the identification theory to achieve the disentanglement of long/short-term states. Built on this theory, we develop a long short-term disentanglement model (LSTD) to extract the long/short-term states with long/short-term encoders, respectively. Furthermore, the LSTD model incorporates a smooth constraint to preserve the long-term dependencies and an interrupted dependency constraint to enforce the forgetting of short-term dependencies, together boosting the disentanglement of long/short-term states. Experimental results on several benchmark datasets show that our \textbf{LSTD} model outperforms existing methods for online time series forecasting, validating its efficacy in real-world applications.

From Orthogonality to Dependency: Learning Disentangled Representation for Multi-Modal Time-Series Sensing Signals

Existing methods for multi-modal time series representation learning aim to disentangle the modality-shared and modality-specific latent variables. Although achieving notable performances on downstream tasks, they usually assume an orthogonal latent space. However, the modality-specific and modality-shared latent variables might be dependent on real-world scenarios. Therefore, we propose a general generation process, where the modality-shared and modality-specific latent variables are dependent, and further develop a \textbf{M}ulti-mod\textbf{A}l \textbf{TE}mporal Disentanglement (\textbf{MATE}) model. Specifically, our \textbf{MATE} model is built on a temporally variational inference architecture with the modality-shared and modality-specific prior networks for the disentanglement of latent variables. Furthermore, we establish identifiability results to show that the extracted representation is disentangled. More specifically, we first achieve the subspace identifiability for modality-shared and modality-specific latent variables by leveraging the pairing of multi-modal data. Then we establish the component-wise identifiability of modality-specific latent variables by employing sufficient changes of historical latent variables. Extensive experimental studies on multi-modal sensors, human activity recognition, and healthcare datasets show a general improvement in different downstream tasks, highlighting the effectiveness of our method in real-world scenarios.