Causal Effect Estimation under Networked Interference without Networked Unconfoundedness Assumption

Estimating causal effects under networked interference is a crucial yet challenging problem. Existing methods based on observational data mainly rely on the networked unconfoundedness assumption, which guarantees the identification of networked effects. However, the networked unconfoundedness assumption is usually violated due to the latent confounders in observational data, hindering the identification of networked effects. Interestingly, in such networked settings, interactions between units provide valuable information for recovering latent confounders. In this paper, we identify three types of latent confounders in networked inference that hinder identification: those affecting only the individual, those affecting only neighbors, and those influencing both. Specifically, we devise a networked effect estimator based on identifiable representation learning techniques. Theoretically, we establish the identifiability of all latent confounders, and leveraging the identified latent confounders, we provide the networked effect identification result. Extensive experiments validate our theoretical results and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Nonparametric Heterogeneous Long-term Causal Effect Estimation via Data Combination

Long-term causal inference has drawn increasing attention in many scientific domains. Existing methods mainly focus on estimating average long-term causal effects by combining long-term observational data and short-term experimental data. However, it is still understudied how to robustly and effectively estimate heterogeneous long-term causal effects, significantly limiting practical applications. In this paper, we propose several two-stage style nonparametric estimators for heterogeneous long-term causal effect estimation, including propensity-based, regression-based, and multiple robust estimators. We conduct a comprehensive theoretical analysis of their asymptotic properties under mild assumptions, with the ultimate goal of building a better understanding of the conditions under which some estimators can be expected to perform better. Extensive experiments across several semi-synthetic and real-world datasets validate the theoretical results and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed estimators.

Long-term Causal Inference via Modeling Sequential Latent Confounding

Long-term causal inference is an important but challenging problem across various scientific domains. To solve the latent confounding problem in long-term observational studies, existing methods leverage short-term experimental data. Ghassami et al. propose an approach based on the Conditional Additive Equi-Confounding Bias (CAECB) assumption, which asserts that the confounding bias in the short-term outcome is equal to that in the long-term outcome, so that the long-term confounding bias and the causal effects can be identified. While effective in certain cases, this assumption is limited to scenarios with a one-dimensional short-term outcome. In this paper, we introduce a novel assumption that extends the CAECB assumption to accommodate temporal short-term outcomes. Our proposed assumption states a functional relationship between sequential confounding biases across temporal short-term outcomes, under which we theoretically establish the identification of long-term causal effects. Based on the identification result, we develop an estimator and conduct a theoretical analysis of its asymptotic properties. Extensive experiments validate our theoretical results and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Towards Training One-Step Diffusion Models Without Distillation

Recent advances in one-step generative models typically follow a two-stage process: first training a teacher diffusion model and then distilling it into a one-step student model. This distillation process traditionally relies on both the teacher model's score function to compute the distillation loss and its weights for student initialization. In this paper, we explore whether one-step generative models can be trained directly without this distillation process. First, we show that the teacher's score function is not essential and propose a family of distillation methods that achieve competitive results without relying on score estimation. Next, we demonstrate that initialization from teacher weights is indispensable in successful training. Surprisingly, we find that this benefit is not due to improved ``input-output" mapping but rather the learned feature representations, which dominate distillation quality. Our findings provide a better understanding of the role of initialization in one-step model training and its impact on distillation quality.

No Trick, No Treat: Pursuits and Challenges Towards Simulation-free Training of Neural Samplers

We consider the sampling problem, where the aim is to draw samples from a distribution whose density is known only up to a normalization constant. Recent breakthroughs in generative modeling to approximate a high-dimensional data distribution have sparked significant interest in developing neural network-based methods for this challenging problem. However, neural samplers typically incur heavy computational overhead due to simulating trajectories during training. This motivates the pursuit of simulation-free training procedures of neural samplers. In this work, we propose an elegant modification to previous methods, which allows simulation-free training with the help of a time-dependent normalizing flow. However, it ultimately suffers from severe mode collapse. On closer inspection, we find that nearly all successful neural samplers rely on Langevin preconditioning to avoid mode collapsing. We systematically analyze several popular methods with various objective functions and demonstrate that, in the absence of Langevin preconditioning, most of them fail to adequately cover even a simple target. Finally, we draw attention to a strong baseline by combining the state-of-the-art MCMC method, Parallel Tempering (PT), with an additional generative model to shed light on future explorations of neural samplers.

Generative Model for Synthesizing Ionizable Lipids: A Monte Carlo Tree Search Approach

Ionizable lipids are essential in developing lipid nanoparticles (LNPs) for effective messenger RNA (mRNA) delivery. While traditional methods for designing new ionizable lipids are typically time-consuming, deep generative models have emerged as a powerful solution, significantly accelerating the molecular discovery process. However, a practical challenge arises as the molecular structures generated can often be difficult or infeasible to synthesize. This project explores Monte Carlo tree search (MCTS)-based generative models for synthesizable ionizable lipids. Leveraging a synthetically accessible lipid building block dataset and two specialized predictors to guide the search through chemical space, we introduce a policy network guided MCTS generative model capable of producing new ionizable lipids with available synthesis pathways.

A Deep Generative Model for the Design of Synthesizable Ionizable Lipids

Lipid nanoparticles (LNPs) are vital in modern biomedicine, enabling the effective delivery of mRNA for vaccines and therapies by protecting it from rapid degradation. Among the components of LNPs, ionizable lipids play a key role in RNA protection and facilitate its delivery into the cytoplasm. However, designing ionizable lipids is complex. Deep generative models can accelerate this process and explore a larger candidate space compared to traditional methods. Due to the structural differences between lipids and small molecules, existing generative models used for small molecule generation are unsuitable for lipid generation. To address this, we developed a deep generative model specifically tailored for the discovery of ionizable lipids. Our model generates novel ionizable lipid structures and provides synthesis paths using synthetically accessible building blocks, addressing synthesizability. This advancement holds promise for streamlining the development of lipid-based delivery systems, potentially accelerating the deployment of new therapeutic agents, including mRNA vaccines and gene therapies.

On conditional diffusion models for PDE simulations

Modelling partial differential equations (PDEs) is of crucial importance in science and engineering, and it includes tasks ranging from forecasting to inverse problems, such as data assimilation. However, most previous numerical and machine learning approaches that target forecasting cannot be applied out-of-the-box for data assimilation. Recently, diffusion models have emerged as a powerful tool for conditional generation, being able to flexibly incorporate observations without retraining. In this work, we perform a comparative study of score-based diffusion models for forecasting and assimilation of sparse observations. In particular, we focus on diffusion models that are either trained in a conditional manner, or conditioned after unconditional training. We address the shortcomings of existing models by proposing 1) an autoregressive sampling approach that significantly improves performance in forecasting, 2) a new training strategy for conditional score-based models that achieves stable performance over a range of history lengths, and 3) a hybrid model which employs flexible pre-training conditioning on initial conditions and flexible post-training conditioning to handle data assimilation. We empirically show that these modifications are crucial for successfully tackling the combination of forecasting and data assimilation, a task commonly encountered in real-world scenarios.

Training Neural Samplers with Reverse Diffusive KL Divergence

Training generative models to sample from unnormalized density functions is an important and challenging task in machine learning. Traditional training methods often rely on the reverse Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence due to its tractability. However, the mode-seeking behavior of reverse KL hinders effective approximation of multi-modal target distributions. To address this, we propose to minimize the reverse KL along diffusion trajectories of both model and target densities. We refer to this objective as the reverse diffusive KL divergence, which allows the model to capture multiple modes. Leveraging this objective, we train neural samplers that can efficiently generate samples from the target distribution in one step. We demonstrate that our method enhances sampling performance across various Boltzmann distributions, including both synthetic multi-modal densities and n-body particle systems.

Batched Bayesian optimization with correlated candidate uncertainties

Batched Bayesian optimization (BO) can accelerate molecular design by efficiently identifying top-performing compounds from a large chemical library. Existing acquisition strategies for batch design in BO aim to balance exploration and exploitation. This often involves optimizing non-additive batch acquisition functions, necessitating approximation via myopic construction and/or diversity heuristics. In this work, we propose an acquisition strategy for discrete optimization that is motivated by pure exploitation, qPO (multipoint Probability of Optimality). qPO maximizes the probability that the batch includes the true optimum, which is expressible as the sum over individual acquisition scores and thereby circumvents the combinatorial challenge of optimizing a batch acquisition function. We differentiate the proposed strategy from parallel Thompson sampling and discuss how it implicitly captures diversity. Finally, we apply our method to the model-guided exploration of large chemical libraries and provide empirical evidence that it performs better than or on par with state-of-the-art methods in batched Bayesian optimization.