Scaling Gaussian Processes for Learning Curve Prediction via Latent Kronecker Structure

A key task in AutoML is to model learning curves of machine learning models jointly as a function of model hyper-parameters and training progression. While Gaussian processes (GPs) are suitable for this task, na\"ive GPs require $\mathcal{O}(n^3m^3)$ time and $\mathcal{O}(n^2 m^2)$ space for $n$ hyper-parameter configurations and $\mathcal{O}(m)$ learning curve observations per hyper-parameter. Efficient inference via Kronecker structure is typically incompatible with early-stopping due to missing learning curve values. We impose $\textit{latent Kronecker structure}$ to leverage efficient product kernels while handling missing values. In particular, we interpret the joint covariance matrix of observed values as the projection of a latent Kronecker product. Combined with iterative linear solvers and structured matrix-vector multiplication, our method only requires $\mathcal{O}(n^3 + m^3)$ time and $\mathcal{O}(n^2 + m^2)$ space. We show that our GP model can match the performance of a Transformer on a learning curve prediction task.

Improving Linear System Solvers for Hyperparameter Optimisation in Iterative Gaussian Processes

Scaling hyperparameter optimisation to very large datasets remains an open problem in the Gaussian process community. This paper focuses on iterative methods, which use linear system solvers, like conjugate gradients, alternating projections or stochastic gradient descent, to construct an estimate of the marginal likelihood gradient. We discuss three key improvements which are applicable across solvers: (i) a pathwise gradient estimator, which reduces the required number of solver iterations and amortises the computational cost of making predictions, (ii) warm starting linear system solvers with the solution from the previous step, which leads to faster solver convergence at the cost of negligible bias, (iii) early stopping linear system solvers after a limited computational budget, which synergises with warm starting, allowing solver progress to accumulate over multiple marginal likelihood steps. These techniques provide speed-ups of up to $72\times$ when solving to tolerance, and decrease the average residual norm by up to $7\times$ when stopping early.

Warm Start Marginal Likelihood Optimisation for Iterative Gaussian Processes

Gaussian processes are a versatile probabilistic machine learning model whose effectiveness often depends on good hyperparameters, which are typically learned by maximising the marginal likelihood. In this work, we consider iterative methods, which use iterative linear system solvers to approximate marginal likelihood gradients up to a specified numerical precision, allowing a trade-off between compute time and accuracy of a solution. We introduce a three-level hierarchy of marginal likelihood optimisation for iterative Gaussian processes, and identify that the computational costs are dominated by solving sequential batches of large positive-definite systems of linear equations. We then propose to amortise computations by reusing solutions of linear system solvers as initialisations in the next step, providing a $\textit{warm start}$. Finally, we discuss the necessary conditions and quantify the consequences of warm starts and demonstrate their effectiveness on regression tasks, where warm starts achieve the same results as the conventional procedure while providing up to a $16 \times$ average speed-up among datasets.

Stochastic Gradient Descent for Gaussian Processes Done Right

We study the optimisation problem associated with Gaussian process regression using squared loss. The most common approach to this problem is to apply an exact solver, such as conjugate gradient descent, either directly, or to a reduced-order version of the problem. Recently, driven by successes in deep learning, stochastic gradient descent has gained traction as an alternative. In this paper, we show that when done right$\unicode{x2014}$by which we mean using specific insights from the optimisation and kernel communities$\unicode{x2014}$this approach is highly effective. We thus introduce a particular stochastic dual gradient descent algorithm, that may be implemented with a few lines of code using any deep learning framework. We explain our design decisions by illustrating their advantage against alternatives with ablation studies and show that the new method is highly competitive. Our evaluations on standard regression benchmarks and a Bayesian optimisation task set our approach apart from preconditioned conjugate gradients, variational Gaussian process approximations, and a previous version of stochastic gradient descent for Gaussian processes. On a molecular binding affinity prediction task, our method places Gaussian process regression on par in terms of performance with state-of-the-art graph neural networks.

Beyond Intuition, a Framework for Applying GPs to Real-World Data

Gaussian Processes (GPs) offer an attractive method for regression over small, structured and correlated datasets. However, their deployment is hindered by computational costs and limited guidelines on how to apply GPs beyond simple low-dimensional datasets. We propose a framework to identify the suitability of GPs to a given problem and how to set up a robust and well-specified GP model. The guidelines formalise the decisions of experienced GP practitioners, with an emphasis on kernel design and options for computational scalability. The framework is then applied to a case study of glacier elevation change yielding more accurate results at test time.

Minimal Random Code Learning with Mean-KL Parameterization

This paper studies the qualitative behavior and robustness of two variants of Minimal Random Code Learning (MIRACLE) used to compress variational Bayesian neural networks. MIRACLE implements a powerful, conditionally Gaussian variational approximation for the weight posterior $Q_{\mathbf{w}}$ and uses relative entropy coding to compress a weight sample from the posterior using a Gaussian coding distribution $P_{\mathbf{w}}$. To achieve the desired compression rate, $D_{\mathrm{KL}}[Q_{\mathbf{w}} \Vert P_{\mathbf{w}}]$ must be constrained, which requires a computationally expensive annealing procedure under the conventional mean-variance (Mean-Var) parameterization for $Q_{\mathbf{w}}$. Instead, we parameterize $Q_{\mathbf{w}}$ by its mean and KL divergence from $P_{\mathbf{w}}$ to constrain the compression cost to the desired value by construction. We demonstrate that variational training with Mean-KL parameterization converges twice as fast and maintains predictive performance after compression. Furthermore, we show that Mean-KL leads to more meaningful variational distributions with heavier tails and compressed weight samples which are more robust to pruning.

Online Laplace Model Selection Revisited

The Laplace approximation provides a closed-form model selection objective for neural networks (NN). Online variants, which optimise NN parameters jointly with hyperparameters, like weight decay strength, have seen renewed interest in the Bayesian deep learning community. However, these methods violate Laplace's method's critical assumption that the approximation is performed around a mode of the loss, calling into question their soundness. This work re-derives online Laplace methods, showing them to target a variational bound on a mode-corrected variant of the Laplace evidence which does not make stationarity assumptions. Online Laplace and its mode-corrected counterpart share stationary points where 1. the NN parameters are a maximum a posteriori, satisfying the Laplace method's assumption, and 2. the hyperparameters maximise the Laplace evidence, motivating online methods. We demonstrate that these optima are roughly attained in practise by online algorithms using full-batch gradient descent on UCI regression datasets. The optimised hyperparameters prevent overfitting and outperform validation-based early stopping.

Function-Space Regularization for Deep Bayesian Classification

Bayesian deep learning approaches assume model parameters to be latent random variables and infer posterior distributions to quantify uncertainty, increase safety and trust, and prevent overconfident and unpredictable behavior. However, weight-space priors are model-specific, can be difficult to interpret and are hard to specify. Instead, we apply a Dirichlet prior in predictive space and perform approximate function-space variational inference. To this end, we interpret conventional categorical predictions from stochastic neural network classifiers as samples from an implicit Dirichlet distribution. By adapting the inference, the same function-space prior can be combined with different models without affecting model architecture or size. We illustrate the flexibility and efficacy of such a prior with toy experiments and demonstrate scalability, improved uncertainty quantification and adversarial robustness with large-scale image classification experiments.

Sampling from Gaussian Process Posteriors using Stochastic Gradient Descent

Gaussian processes are a powerful framework for quantifying uncertainty and for sequential decision-making but are limited by the requirement of solving linear systems. In general, this has a cubic cost in dataset size and is sensitive to conditioning. We explore stochastic gradient algorithms as a computationally efficient method of approximately solving these linear systems: we develop low-variance optimization objectives for sampling from the posterior and extend these to inducing points. Counterintuitively, stochastic gradient descent often produces accurate predictions, even in cases where it does not converge quickly to the optimum. We explain this through a spectral characterization of the implicit bias from non-convergence. We show that stochastic gradient descent produces predictive distributions close to the true posterior both in regions with sufficient data coverage, and in regions sufficiently far away from the data. Experimentally, stochastic gradient descent achieves state-of-the-art performance on sufficiently large-scale or ill-conditioned regression tasks. Its uncertainty estimates match the performance of significantly more expensive baselines on a large-scale Bayesian~optimization~task.

Learning to Predict the 3D Layout of a Scene

While 2D object detection has improved significantly over the past, real world applications of computer vision often require an understanding of the 3D layout of a scene. Many recent approaches to 3D detection use LiDAR point clouds for prediction. We propose a method that only uses a single RGB image, thus enabling applications in devices or vehicles that do not have LiDAR sensors. By using an RGB image, we can leverage the maturity and success of recent 2D object detectors, by extending a 2D detector with a 3D detection head. In this paper we discuss different approaches and experiments, including both regression and classification methods, for designing this 3D detection head. Furthermore, we evaluate how subproblems and implementation details impact the overall prediction result. We use the KITTI dataset for training, which consists of street traffic scenes with class labels, 2D bounding boxes and 3D annotations with seven degrees of freedom. Our final architecture is based on Faster R-CNN. The outputs of the convolutional backbone are fixed sized feature maps for every region of interest. Fully connected layers within the network head then propose an object class and perform 2D bounding box regression. We extend the network head by a 3D detection head, which predicts every degree of freedom of a 3D bounding box via classification. We achieve a mean average precision of 47.3% for moderately difficult data, measured at a 3D intersection over union threshold of 70%, as required by the official KITTI benchmark; outperforming previous state-of-the-art single RGB only methods by a large margin.