Permutation-Based Rank Test in the Presence of Discretization and Application in Causal Discovery with Mixed Data

Recent advances have shown that statistical tests for the rank of cross-covariance matrices play an important role in causal discovery. These rank tests include partial correlation tests as special cases and provide further graphical information about latent variables. Existing rank tests typically assume that all the continuous variables can be perfectly measured, and yet, in practice many variables can only be measured after discretization. For example, in psychometric studies, the continuous level of certain personality dimensions of a person can only be measured after being discretized into order-preserving options such as disagree, neutral, and agree. Motivated by this, we propose Mixed data Permutation-based Rank Test (MPRT), which properly controls the statistical errors even when some or all variables are discretized. Theoretically, we establish the exchangeability and estimate the asymptotic null distribution by permutations; as a consequence, MPRT can effectively control the Type I error in the presence of discretization while previous methods cannot. Empirically, our method is validated by extensive experiments on synthetic data and real-world data to demonstrate its effectiveness as well as applicability in causal discovery.

Causal Temporal Representation Learning with Nonstationary Sparse Transition

Causal Temporal Representation Learning (Ctrl) methods aim to identify the temporal causal dynamics of complex nonstationary temporal sequences. Despite the success of existing Ctrl methods, they require either directly observing the domain variables or assuming a Markov prior on them. Such requirements limit the application of these methods in real-world scenarios when we do not have such prior knowledge of the domain variables. To address this problem, this work adopts a sparse transition assumption, aligned with intuitive human understanding, and presents identifiability results from a theoretical perspective. In particular, we explore under what conditions on the significance of the variability of the transitions we can build a model to identify the distribution shifts. Based on the theoretical result, we introduce a novel framework, Causal Temporal Representation Learning with Nonstationary Sparse Transition (CtrlNS), designed to leverage the constraints on transition sparsity and conditional independence to reliably identify both distribution shifts and latent factors. Our experimental evaluations on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate significant improvements over existing baselines, highlighting the effectiveness of our approach.

On the Identifiability of Sparse ICA without Assuming Non-Gaussianity

Independent component analysis (ICA) is a fundamental statistical tool used to reveal hidden generative processes from observed data. However, traditional ICA approaches struggle with the rotational invariance inherent in Gaussian distributions, often necessitating the assumption of non-Gaussianity in the underlying sources. This may limit their applicability in broader contexts. To accommodate Gaussian sources, we develop an identifiability theory that relies on second-order statistics without imposing further preconditions on the distribution of sources, by introducing novel assumptions on the connective structure from sources to observed variables. Different from recent work that focuses on potentially restrictive connective structures, our proposed assumption of structural variability is both considerably less restrictive and provably necessary. Furthermore, we propose two estimation methods based on second-order statistics and sparsity constraint. Experimental results are provided to validate our identifiability theory and estimation methods.

On the Parameter Identifiability of Partially Observed Linear Causal Models

Linear causal models are important tools for modeling causal dependencies and yet in practice, only a subset of the variables can be observed. In this paper, we examine the parameter identifiability of these models by investigating whether the edge coefficients can be recovered given the causal structure and partially observed data. Our setting is more general than that of prior research - we allow all variables, including both observed and latent ones, to be flexibly related, and we consider the coefficients of all edges, whereas most existing works focus only on the edges between observed variables. Theoretically, we identify three types of indeterminacy for the parameters in partially observed linear causal models. We then provide graphical conditions that are sufficient for all parameters to be identifiable and show that some of them are provably necessary. Methodologically, we propose a novel likelihood-based parameter estimation method that addresses the variance indeterminacy of latent variables in a specific way and can asymptotically recover the underlying parameters up to trivial indeterminacy. Empirical studies on both synthetic and real-world datasets validate our identifiability theory and the effectiveness of the proposed method in the finite-sample regime.

Meta-optimized Angular Margin Contrastive Framework for Video-Language Representation Learning

Data quality stands at the forefront of deciding the effectiveness of video-language representation learning. However, video-text pairs in previous data typically do not align perfectly with each other, which might lead to video-language representations that do not accurately reflect cross-modal semantics. Moreover, previous data also possess an uneven distribution of concepts, thereby hampering the downstream performance across unpopular subjects. To address these problems, we propose a contrastive objective with a subtractive angular margin to regularize cross-modal representations in their effort to reach perfect similarity. Furthermore, to adapt to the non-uniform concept distribution, we propose a multi-layer perceptron (MLP)-parameterized weighting function that maps loss values to sample weights which enable dynamic adjustment of the model's focus throughout the training. With the training guided by a small amount of unbiased meta-data and augmented by video-text data generated by large vision-language model, we improve video-language representations and achieve superior performances on commonly used video question answering and text-video retrieval datasets.

Modeling Dynamic Topics in Chain-Free Fashion by Evolution-Tracking Contrastive Learning and Unassociated Word Exclusion

Dynamic topic models track the evolution of topics in sequential documents, which have derived various applications like trend analysis and opinion mining. However, existing models suffer from repetitive topic and unassociated topic issues, failing to reveal the evolution and hindering further applications. To address these issues, we break the tradition of simply chaining topics in existing work and propose a novel neural \modelfullname. We introduce a new evolution-tracking contrastive learning method that builds the similarity relations among dynamic topics. This not only tracks topic evolution but also maintains topic diversity, mitigating the repetitive topic issue. To avoid unassociated topics, we further present an unassociated word exclusion method that consistently excludes unassociated words from discovered topics. Extensive experiments demonstrate our model significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, tracking topic evolution with high-quality topics, showing better performance on downstream tasks, and remaining robust to the hyperparameter for evolution intensities. Our code is available at https://github.com/bobxwu/CFDTM .

Counterfactual Reasoning Using Predicted Latent Personality Dimensions for Optimizing Persuasion Outcome

Customizing persuasive conversations related to the outcome of interest for specific users achieves better persuasion results. However, existing persuasive conversation systems rely on persuasive strategies and encounter challenges in dynamically adjusting dialogues to suit the evolving states of individual users during interactions. This limitation restricts the system's ability to deliver flexible or dynamic conversations and achieve suboptimal persuasion outcomes. In this paper, we present a novel approach that tracks a user's latent personality dimensions (LPDs) during ongoing persuasion conversation and generates tailored counterfactual utterances based on these LPDs to optimize the overall persuasion outcome. In particular, our proposed method leverages a Bi-directional Generative Adversarial Network (BiCoGAN) in tandem with a Dialogue-based Personality Prediction Regression (DPPR) model to generate counterfactual data. This enables the system to formulate alternative persuasive utterances that are more suited to the user. Subsequently, we utilize the D3QN model to learn policies for optimized selection of system utterances on counterfactual data. Experimental results we obtained from using the PersuasionForGood dataset demonstrate the superiority of our approach over the existing method, BiCoGAN. The cumulative rewards and Q-values produced by our method surpass ground truth benchmarks, showcasing the efficacy of employing counterfactual reasoning and LPDs to optimize reinforcement learning policy in online interactions.

Topic Modeling as Multi-Objective Contrastive Optimization

Recent representation learning approaches enhance neural topic models by optimizing the weighted linear combination of the evidence lower bound (ELBO) of the log-likelihood and the contrastive learning objective that contrasts pairs of input documents. However, document-level contrastive learning might capture low-level mutual information, such as word ratio, which disturbs topic modeling. Moreover, there is a potential conflict between the ELBO loss that memorizes input details for better reconstruction quality, and the contrastive loss which attempts to learn topic representations that generalize among input documents. To address these issues, we first introduce a novel contrastive learning method oriented towards sets of topic vectors to capture useful semantics that are shared among a set of input documents. Secondly, we explicitly cast contrastive topic modeling as a gradient-based multi-objective optimization problem, with the goal of achieving a Pareto stationary solution that balances the trade-off between the ELBO and the contrastive objective. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our framework consistently produces higher-performing neural topic models in terms of topic coherence, topic diversity, and downstream performance.

On the Three Demons in Causality in Finance: Time Resolution, Nonstationarity, and Latent Factors

Financial data is generally time series in essence and thus suffers from three fundamental issues: the mismatch in time resolution, the time-varying property of the distribution - nonstationarity, and causal factors that are important but unknown/unobserved. In this paper, we follow a causal perspective to systematically look into these three demons in finance. Specifically, we reexamine these issues in the context of causality, which gives rise to a novel and inspiring understanding of how the issues can be addressed. Following this perspective, we provide systematic solutions to these problems, which hopefully would serve as a foundation for future research in the area.

A Versatile Causal Discovery Framework to Allow Causally-Related Hidden Variables

Most existing causal discovery methods rely on the assumption of no latent confounders, limiting their applicability in solving real-life problems. In this paper, we introduce a novel, versatile framework for causal discovery that accommodates the presence of causally-related hidden variables almost everywhere in the causal network (for instance, they can be effects of observed variables), based on rank information of covariance matrix over observed variables. We start by investigating the efficacy of rank in comparison to conditional independence and, theoretically, establish necessary and sufficient conditions for the identifiability of certain latent structural patterns. Furthermore, we develop a Rank-based Latent Causal Discovery algorithm, RLCD, that can efficiently locate hidden variables, determine their cardinalities, and discover the entire causal structure over both measured and hidden ones. We also show that, under certain graphical conditions, RLCD correctly identifies the Markov Equivalence Class of the whole latent causal graph asymptotically. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-world personality data sets demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach in finite-sample cases.