Differentiable Causal Discovery For Latent Hierarchical Causal Models

Discovering causal structures with latent variables from observational data is a fundamental challenge in causal discovery. Existing methods often rely on constraint-based, iterative discrete searches, limiting their scalability to large numbers of variables. Moreover, these methods frequently assume linearity or invertibility, restricting their applicability to real-world scenarios. We present new theoretical results on the identifiability of nonlinear latent hierarchical causal models, relaxing previous assumptions in literature about the deterministic nature of latent variables and exogenous noise. Building on these insights, we develop a novel differentiable causal discovery algorithm that efficiently estimates the structure of such models. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to propose a differentiable causal discovery method for nonlinear latent hierarchical models. Our approach outperforms existing methods in both accuracy and scalability. We demonstrate its practical utility by learning interpretable hierarchical latent structures from high-dimensional image data and demonstrate its effectiveness on downstream tasks.

Testability of Instrumental Variables in Additive Nonlinear, Non-Constant Effects Models

We address the issue of the testability of instrumental variables derived from observational data. Most existing testable implications are centered on scenarios where the treatment is a discrete variable, e.g., instrumental inequality (Pearl, 1995), or where the effect is assumed to be constant, e.g., instrumental variables condition based on the principle of independent mechanisms (Burauel, 2023). However, treatments can often be continuous variables, such as drug dosages or nutritional content levels, and non-constant effects may occur in many real-world scenarios. In this paper, we consider an additive nonlinear, non-constant effects model with unmeasured confounders, in which treatments can be either discrete or continuous, and propose an Auxiliary-based Independence Test (AIT) condition to test whether a variable is a valid instrument. We first show that if the candidate instrument is valid, then the AIT condition holds. Moreover, we illustrate the implications of the AIT condition and demonstrate that, in certain conditions, AIT conditions are necessary and sufficient to detect all invalid IVs. We also extend the AIT condition to include covariates and introduce a practical testing algorithm. Experimental results on both synthetic and three different real-world datasets show the effectiveness of our proposed condition.

Identifiability Analysis of Linear ODE Systems with Hidden Confounders

The identifiability analysis of linear Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) systems is a necessary prerequisite for making reliable causal inferences about these systems. While identifiability has been well studied in scenarios where the system is fully observable, the conditions for identifiability remain unexplored when latent variables interact with the system. This paper aims to address this gap by presenting a systematic analysis of identifiability in linear ODE systems incorporating hidden confounders. Specifically, we investigate two cases of such systems. In the first case, latent confounders exhibit no causal relationships, yet their evolution adheres to specific functional forms, such as polynomial functions of time $t$. Subsequently, we extend this analysis to encompass scenarios where hidden confounders exhibit causal dependencies, with the causal structure of latent variables described by a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG). The second case represents a more intricate variation of the first case, prompting a more comprehensive identifiability analysis. Accordingly, we conduct detailed identifiability analyses of the second system under various observation conditions, including both continuous and discrete observations from single or multiple trajectories. To validate our theoretical results, we perform a series of simulations, which support and substantiate our findings.

Revisiting Differentiable Structure Learning: Inconsistency of $\ell_1$ Penalty and Beyond

Recent advances in differentiable structure learning have framed the combinatorial problem of learning directed acyclic graphs as a continuous optimization problem. Various aspects, including data standardization, have been studied to identify factors that influence the empirical performance of these methods. In this work, we investigate critical limitations in differentiable structure learning methods, focusing on settings where the true structure can be identified up to Markov equivalence classes, particularly in the linear Gaussian case. While Ng et al. (2024) highlighted potential non-convexity issues in this setting, we demonstrate and explain why the use of $\ell_1$-penalized likelihood in such cases is fundamentally inconsistent, even if the global optimum of the optimization problem can be found. To resolve this limitation, we develop a hybrid differentiable structure learning method based on $\ell_0$-penalized likelihood with hard acyclicity constraint, where the $\ell_0$ penalty can be approximated by different techniques including Gumbel-Softmax. Specifically, we first estimate the underlying moral graph, and use it to restrict the search space of the optimization problem, which helps alleviate the non-convexity issue. Experimental results show that the proposed method enhances empirical performance both before and after data standardization, providing a more reliable path for future advancements in differentiable structure learning, especially for learning Markov equivalence classes.

A Skewness-Based Criterion for Addressing Heteroscedastic Noise in Causal Discovery

Real-world data often violates the equal-variance assumption (homoscedasticity), making it essential to account for heteroscedastic noise in causal discovery. In this work, we explore heteroscedastic symmetric noise models (HSNMs), where the effect $Y$ is modeled as $Y = f(X) + \sigma(X)N$, with $X$ as the cause and $N$ as independent noise following a symmetric distribution. We introduce a novel criterion for identifying HSNMs based on the skewness of the score (i.e., the gradient of the log density) of the data distribution. This criterion establishes a computationally tractable measurement that is zero in the causal direction but nonzero in the anticausal direction, enabling the causal direction discovery. We extend this skewness-based criterion to the multivariate setting and propose SkewScore, an algorithm that handles heteroscedastic noise without requiring the extraction of exogenous noise. We also conduct a case study on the robustness of SkewScore in a bivariate model with a latent confounder, providing theoretical insights into its performance. Empirical studies further validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Rethinking State Disentanglement in Causal Reinforcement Learning

One of the significant challenges in reinforcement learning (RL) when dealing with noise is estimating latent states from observations. Causality provides rigorous theoretical support for ensuring that the underlying states can be uniquely recovered through identifiability. Consequently, some existing work focuses on establishing identifiability from a causal perspective to aid in the design of algorithms. However, these results are often derived from a purely causal viewpoint, which may overlook the specific RL context. We revisit this research line and find that incorporating RL-specific context can reduce unnecessary assumptions in previous identifiability analyses for latent states. More importantly, removing these assumptions allows algorithm design to go beyond the earlier boundaries constrained by them. Leveraging these insights, we propose a novel approach for general partially observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) by replacing the complicated structural constraints in previous methods with two simple constraints for transition and reward preservation. With the two constraints, the proposed algorithm is guaranteed to disentangle state and noise that is faithful to the underlying dynamics. Empirical evidence from extensive benchmark control tasks demonstrates the superiority of our approach over existing counterparts in effectively disentangling state belief from noise.

An Empirical Examination of Balancing Strategy for Counterfactual Estimation on Time Series

Counterfactual estimation from observations represents a critical endeavor in numerous application fields, such as healthcare and finance, with the primary challenge being the mitigation of treatment bias. The balancing strategy aimed at reducing covariate disparities between different treatment groups serves as a universal solution. However, when it comes to the time series data, the effectiveness of balancing strategies remains an open question, with a thorough analysis of the robustness and applicability of balancing strategies still lacking. This paper revisits counterfactual estimation in the temporal setting and provides a brief overview of recent advancements in balancing strategies. More importantly, we conduct a critical empirical examination for the effectiveness of the balancing strategies within the realm of temporal counterfactual estimation in various settings on multiple datasets. Our findings could be of significant interest to researchers and practitioners and call for a reexamination of the balancing strategy in time series settings.

Towards Generalizable Reinforcement Learning via Causality-Guided Self-Adaptive Representations

General intelligence requires quick adaption across tasks. While existing reinforcement learning (RL) methods have made progress in generalization, they typically assume only distribution changes between source and target domains. In this paper, we explore a wider range of scenarios where both the distribution and environment spaces may change. For example, in Atari games, we train agents to generalize to tasks with different levels of mode and difficulty, where there could be new state or action variables that never occurred in previous environments. To address this challenging setting, we introduce a causality-guided self-adaptive representation-based approach, called CSR, that equips the agent to generalize effectively and efficiently across a sequence of tasks with evolving dynamics. Specifically, we employ causal representation learning to characterize the latent causal variables and world models within the RL system. Such compact causal representations uncover the structural relationships among variables, enabling the agent to autonomously determine whether changes in the environment stem from distribution shifts or variations in space, and to precisely locate these changes. We then devise a three-step strategy to fine-tune the model under different scenarios accordingly. Empirical experiments show that CSR efficiently adapts to the target domains with only a few samples and outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on a wide range of scenarios, including our simulated environments, Cartpole, and Atari games.

Boosting Efficiency in Task-Agnostic Exploration through Causal Knowledge

The effectiveness of model training heavily relies on the quality of available training resources. However, budget constraints often impose limitations on data collection efforts. To tackle this challenge, we introduce causal exploration in this paper, a strategy that leverages the underlying causal knowledge for both data collection and model training. We, in particular, focus on enhancing the sample efficiency and reliability of the world model learning within the domain of task-agnostic reinforcement learning. During the exploration phase, the agent actively selects actions expected to yield causal insights most beneficial for world model training. Concurrently, the causal knowledge is acquired and incrementally refined with the ongoing collection of data. We demonstrate that causal exploration aids in learning accurate world models using fewer data and provide theoretical guarantees for its convergence. Empirical experiments, on both synthetic data and real-world applications, further validate the benefits of causal exploration.

On the Parameter Identifiability of Partially Observed Linear Causal Models

Linear causal models are important tools for modeling causal dependencies and yet in practice, only a subset of the variables can be observed. In this paper, we examine the parameter identifiability of these models by investigating whether the edge coefficients can be recovered given the causal structure and partially observed data. Our setting is more general than that of prior research - we allow all variables, including both observed and latent ones, to be flexibly related, and we consider the coefficients of all edges, whereas most existing works focus only on the edges between observed variables. Theoretically, we identify three types of indeterminacy for the parameters in partially observed linear causal models. We then provide graphical conditions that are sufficient for all parameters to be identifiable and show that some of them are provably necessary. Methodologically, we propose a novel likelihood-based parameter estimation method that addresses the variance indeterminacy of latent variables in a specific way and can asymptotically recover the underlying parameters up to trivial indeterminacy. Empirical studies on both synthetic and real-world datasets validate our identifiability theory and the effectiveness of the proposed method in the finite-sample regime.