Towards Understanding Extrapolation: a Causal Lens

Canonical work handling distribution shifts typically necessitates an entire target distribution that lands inside the training distribution. However, practical scenarios often involve only a handful of target samples, potentially lying outside the training support, which requires the capability of extrapolation. In this work, we aim to provide a theoretical understanding of when extrapolation is possible and offer principled methods to achieve it without requiring an on-support target distribution. To this end, we formulate the extrapolation problem with a latent-variable model that embodies the minimal change principle in causal mechanisms. Under this formulation, we cast the extrapolation problem into a latent-variable identification problem. We provide realistic conditions on shift properties and the estimation objectives that lead to identification even when only one off-support target sample is available, tackling the most challenging scenarios. Our theory reveals the intricate interplay between the underlying manifold's smoothness and the shift properties. We showcase how our theoretical results inform the design of practical adaptation algorithms. Through experiments on both synthetic and real-world data, we validate our theoretical findings and their practical implications.

Causal Representation Learning from Multimodal Biological Observations

Prevalent in biological applications (e.g., human phenotype measurements), multimodal datasets can provide valuable insights into the underlying biological mechanisms. However, current machine learning models designed to analyze such datasets still lack interpretability and theoretical guarantees, which are essential to biological applications. Recent advances in causal representation learning have shown promise in uncovering the interpretable latent causal variables with formal theoretical certificates. Unfortunately, existing works for multimodal distributions either rely on restrictive parametric assumptions or provide rather coarse identification results, limiting their applicability to biological research which favors a detailed understanding of the mechanisms. In this work, we aim to develop flexible identification conditions for multimodal data and principled methods to facilitate the understanding of biological datasets. Theoretically, we consider a flexible nonparametric latent distribution (c.f., parametric assumptions in prior work) permitting causal relationships across potentially different modalities. We establish identifiability guarantees for each latent component, extending the subspace identification results from prior work. Our key theoretical ingredient is the structural sparsity of the causal connections among distinct modalities, which, as we will discuss, is natural for a large collection of biological systems. Empirically, we propose a practical framework to instantiate our theoretical insights. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach through extensive experiments on both numerical and synthetic datasets. Results on a real-world human phenotype dataset are consistent with established medical research, validating our theoretical and methodological framework.

Adjusting Pretrained Backbones for Performativity

With the widespread deployment of deep learning models, they influence their environment in various ways. The induced distribution shifts can lead to unexpected performance degradation in deployed models. Existing methods to anticipate performativity typically incorporate information about the deployed model into the feature vector when predicting future outcomes. While enjoying appealing theoretical properties, modifying the input dimension of the prediction task is often not practical. To address this, we propose a novel technique to adjust pretrained backbones for performativity in a modular way, achieving better sample efficiency and enabling the reuse of existing deep learning assets. Focusing on performative label shift, the key idea is to train a shallow adapter module to perform a Bayes-optimal label shift correction to the backbone's logits given a sufficient statistic of the model to be deployed. As such, our framework decouples the construction of input-specific feature embeddings from the mechanism governing performativity. Motivated by dynamic benchmarking as a use-case, we evaluate our approach under adversarial sampling, for vision and language tasks. We show how it leads to smaller loss along the retraining trajectory and enables us to effectively select among candidate models to anticipate performance degradations. More broadly, our work provides a first baseline for addressing performativity in deep learning.

Learning Discrete Concepts in Latent Hierarchical Models

Learning concepts from natural high-dimensional data (e.g., images) holds potential in building human-aligned and interpretable machine learning models. Despite its encouraging prospect, formalization and theoretical insights into this crucial task are still lacking. In this work, we formalize concepts as discrete latent causal variables that are related via a hierarchical causal model that encodes different abstraction levels of concepts embedded in high-dimensional data (e.g., a dog breed and its eye shapes in natural images). We formulate conditions to facilitate the identification of the proposed causal model, which reveals when learning such concepts from unsupervised data is possible. Our conditions permit complex causal hierarchical structures beyond latent trees and multi-level directed acyclic graphs in prior work and can handle high-dimensional, continuous observed variables, which is well-suited for unstructured data modalities such as images. We substantiate our theoretical claims with synthetic data experiments. Further, we discuss our theory's implications for understanding the underlying mechanisms of latent diffusion models and provide corresponding empirical evidence for our theoretical insights.

Counterfactual Generation with Identifiability Guarantees

Counterfactual generation lies at the core of various machine learning tasks, including image translation and controllable text generation. This generation process usually requires the identification of the disentangled latent representations, such as content and style, that underlie the observed data. However, it becomes more challenging when faced with a scarcity of paired data and labeling information. Existing disentangled methods crucially rely on oversimplified assumptions, such as assuming independent content and style variables, to identify the latent variables, even though such assumptions may not hold for complex data distributions. For instance, food reviews tend to involve words like tasty, whereas movie reviews commonly contain words such as thrilling for the same positive sentiment. This problem is exacerbated when data are sampled from multiple domains since the dependence between content and style may vary significantly over domains. In this work, we tackle the domain-varying dependence between the content and the style variables inherent in the counterfactual generation task. We provide identification guarantees for such latent-variable models by leveraging the relative sparsity of the influences from different latent variables. Our theoretical insights enable the development of a doMain AdapTive counTerfactual gEneration model, called (MATTE). Our theoretically grounded framework achieves state-of-the-art performance in unsupervised style transfer tasks, where neither paired data nor style labels are utilized, across four large-scale datasets. Code is available at https://github.com/hanqi-qi/Matte.git

Identification of Nonlinear Latent Hierarchical Models

Identifying latent variables and causal structures from observational data is essential to many real-world applications involving biological data, medical data, and unstructured data such as images and languages. However, this task can be highly challenging, especially when observed variables are generated by causally related latent variables and the relationships are nonlinear. In this work, we investigate the identification problem for nonlinear latent hierarchical causal models in which observed variables are generated by a set of causally related latent variables, and some latent variables may not have observed children. We show that the identifiability of both causal structure and latent variables can be achieved under mild assumptions: on causal structures, we allow for the existence of multiple paths between any pair of variables in the graph, which relaxes latent tree assumptions in prior work; on structural functions, we do not make parametric assumptions, thus permitting general nonlinearity and multi-dimensional continuous variables. Specifically, we first develop a basic identification criterion in the form of novel identifiability guarantees for an elementary latent variable model. Leveraging this criterion, we show that both causal structures and latent variables of the hierarchical model can be identified asymptotically by explicitly constructing an estimation procedure. To the best of our knowledge, our work is the first to establish identifiability guarantees for both causal structures and latent variables in nonlinear latent hierarchical models.

Partial Identifiability for Domain Adaptation

Unsupervised domain adaptation is critical to many real-world applications where label information is unavailable in the target domain. In general, without further assumptions, the joint distribution of the features and the label is not identifiable in the target domain. To address this issue, we rely on the property of minimal changes of causal mechanisms across domains to minimize unnecessary influences of distribution shifts. To encode this property, we first formulate the data-generating process using a latent variable model with two partitioned latent subspaces: invariant components whose distributions stay the same across domains and sparse changing components that vary across domains. We further constrain the domain shift to have a restrictive influence on the changing components. Under mild conditions, we show that the latent variables are partially identifiable, from which it follows that the joint distribution of data and labels in the target domain is also identifiable. Given the theoretical insights, we propose a practical domain adaptation framework called iMSDA. Extensive experimental results reveal that iMSDA outperforms state-of-the-art domain adaptation algorithms on benchmark datasets, demonstrating the effectiveness of our framework.

Understanding Masked Autoencoders via Hierarchical Latent Variable Models

Masked autoencoder (MAE), a simple and effective self-supervised learning framework based on the reconstruction of masked image regions, has recently achieved prominent success in a variety of vision tasks. Despite the emergence of intriguing empirical observations on MAE, a theoretically principled understanding is still lacking. In this work, we formally characterize and justify existing empirical insights and provide theoretical guarantees of MAE. We formulate the underlying data-generating process as a hierarchical latent variable model and show that under reasonable assumptions, MAE provably identifies a set of latent variables in the hierarchical model, explaining why MAE can extract high-level information from pixels. Further, we show how key hyperparameters in MAE (the masking ratio and the patch size) determine which true latent variables to be recovered, therefore influencing the level of semantic information in the representation. Specifically, extremely large or small masking ratios inevitably lead to low-level representations. Our theory offers coherent explanations of existing empirical observations and provides insights for potential empirical improvements and fundamental limitations of the masking-reconstruction paradigm. We conduct extensive experiments to validate our theoretical insights.

Self-training Improves Pre-training for Few-shot Learning in Task-oriented Dialog Systems

As the labeling cost for different modules in task-oriented dialog (ToD) systems is expensive, a major challenge is to train different modules with the least amount of labeled data. Recently, large-scale pre-trained language models, have shown promising results for few-shot learning in ToD. In this paper, we devise a self-training approach to utilize the abundant unlabeled dialog data to further improve state-of-the-art pre-trained models in few-shot learning scenarios for ToD systems. Specifically, we propose a self-training approach that iteratively labels the most confident unlabeled data to train a stronger Student model. Moreover, a new text augmentation technique (GradAug) is proposed to better train the Student by replacing non-crucial tokens using a masked language model. We conduct extensive experiments and present analyses on four downstream tasks in ToD, including intent classification, dialog state tracking, dialog act prediction, and response selection. Empirical results demonstrate that the proposed self-training approach consistently improves state-of-the-art pre-trained models (BERT, ToD-BERT) when only a small number of labeled data are available.

Consensus Control for Decentralized Deep Learning

Decentralized training of deep learning models enables on-device learning over networks, as well as efficient scaling to large compute clusters. Experiments in earlier works reveal that, even in a data-center setup, decentralized training often suffers from the degradation in the quality of the model: the training and test performance of models trained in a decentralized fashion is in general worse than that of models trained in a centralized fashion, and this performance drop is impacted by parameters such as network size, communication topology and data partitioning. We identify the changing consensus distance between devices as a key parameter to explain the gap between centralized and decentralized training. We show in theory that when the training consensus distance is lower than a critical quantity, decentralized training converges as fast as the centralized counterpart. We empirically validate that the relation between generalization performance and consensus distance is consistent with this theoretical observation. Our empirical insights allow the principled design of better decentralized training schemes that mitigate the performance drop. To this end, we propose practical training guidelines for the data-center setup as the important first step.