Rethinking the Uncertainty: A Critical Review and Analysis in the Era of Large Language Models

In recent years, Large Language Models (LLMs) have become fundamental to a broad spectrum of artificial intelligence applications. As the use of LLMs expands, precisely estimating the uncertainty in their predictions has become crucial. Current methods often struggle to accurately identify, measure, and address the true uncertainty, with many focusing primarily on estimating model confidence. This discrepancy is largely due to an incomplete understanding of where, when, and how uncertainties are injected into models. This paper introduces a comprehensive framework specifically designed to identify and understand the types and sources of uncertainty, aligned with the unique characteristics of LLMs. Our framework enhances the understanding of the diverse landscape of uncertainties by systematically categorizing and defining each type, establishing a solid foundation for developing targeted methods that can precisely quantify these uncertainties. We also provide a detailed introduction to key related concepts and examine the limitations of current methods in mission-critical and safety-sensitive applications. The paper concludes with a perspective on future directions aimed at enhancing the reliability and practical adoption of these methods in real-world scenarios.

Can We Trust the Performance Evaluation of Uncertainty Estimation Methods in Text Summarization?

Text summarization, a key natural language generation (NLG) task, is vital in various domains. However, the high cost of inaccurate summaries in risk-critical applications, particularly those involving human-in-the-loop decision-making, raises concerns about the reliability of uncertainty estimation on text summarization (UE-TS) evaluation methods. This concern stems from the dependency of uncertainty model metrics on diverse and potentially conflicting NLG metrics. To address this issue, we introduce a comprehensive UE-TS benchmark incorporating 31 NLG metrics across four dimensions. The benchmark evaluates the uncertainty estimation capabilities of two large language models and one pre-trained language model on three datasets, with human-annotation analysis incorporated where applicable. We also assess the performance of 14 common uncertainty estimation methods within this benchmark. Our findings emphasize the importance of considering multiple uncorrelated NLG metrics and diverse uncertainty estimation methods to ensure reliable and efficient evaluation of UE-TS techniques.

InternalInspector $I^2$: Robust Confidence Estimation in LLMs through Internal States

Despite their vast capabilities, Large Language Models (LLMs) often struggle with generating reliable outputs, frequently producing high-confidence inaccuracies known as hallucinations. Addressing this challenge, our research introduces InternalInspector, a novel framework designed to enhance confidence estimation in LLMs by leveraging contrastive learning on internal states including attention states, feed-forward states, and activation states of all layers. Unlike existing methods that primarily focus on the final activation state, InternalInspector conducts a comprehensive analysis across all internal states of every layer to accurately identify both correct and incorrect prediction processes. By benchmarking InternalInspector against existing confidence estimation methods across various natural language understanding and generation tasks, including factual question answering, commonsense reasoning, and reading comprehension, InternalInspector achieves significantly higher accuracy in aligning the estimated confidence scores with the correctness of the LLM's predictions and lower calibration error. Furthermore, InternalInspector excels at HaluEval, a hallucination detection benchmark, outperforming other internal-based confidence estimation methods in this task.

DC-Gaussian: Improving 3D Gaussian Splatting for Reflective Dash Cam Videos

We present DC-Gaussian, a new method for generating novel views from in-vehicle dash cam videos. While neural rendering techniques have made significant strides in driving scenarios, existing methods are primarily designed for videos collected by autonomous vehicles. However, these videos are limited in both quantity and diversity compared to dash cam videos, which are more widely used across various types of vehicles and capture a broader range of scenarios. Dash cam videos often suffer from severe obstructions such as reflections and occlusions on the windshields, which significantly impede the application of neural rendering techniques. To address this challenge, we develop DC-Gaussian based on the recent real-time neural rendering technique 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS). Our approach includes an adaptive image decomposition module to model reflections and occlusions in a unified manner. Additionally, we introduce illumination-aware obstruction modeling to manage reflections and occlusions under varying lighting conditions. Lastly, we employ a geometry-guided Gaussian enhancement strategy to improve rendering details by incorporating additional geometry priors. Experiments on self-captured and public dash cam videos show that our method not only achieves state-of-the-art performance in novel view synthesis, but also accurately reconstructing captured scenes getting rid of obstructions.

Network Interdiction Goes Neural

Network interdiction problems are combinatorial optimization problems involving two players: one aims to solve an optimization problem on a network, while the other seeks to modify the network to thwart the first player's objectives. Such problems typically emerge in an attacker-defender context, encompassing areas such as military operations, disease spread analysis, and communication network management. The primary bottleneck in network interdiction arises from the high time complexity of using conventional exact solvers and the challenges associated with devising efficient heuristic solvers. GNNs, recognized as a cutting-edge methodology, have shown significant effectiveness in addressing single-level CO problems on graphs, such as the traveling salesman problem, graph matching, and graph edit distance. Nevertheless, network interdiction presents a bi-level optimization challenge, which current GNNs find difficult to manage. To address this gap, we represent network interdiction problems as Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) instances, then apply a multipartite GNN with sufficient representational capacity to learn these formulations. This approach ensures that our neural network is more compatible with the mathematical algorithms designed to solve network interdiction problems, resulting in improved generalization. Through two distinct tasks, we demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms theoretical baseline models and provides advantages over traditional exact solvers.

A Comprehensive Survey on Data Augmentation

Data augmentation is a series of techniques that generate high-quality artificial data by manipulating existing data samples. By leveraging data augmentation techniques, AI models can achieve significantly improved applicability in tasks involving scarce or imbalanced datasets, thereby substantially enhancing AI models' generalization capabilities. Existing literature surveys only focus on a certain type of specific modality data, and categorize these methods from modality-specific and operation-centric perspectives, which lacks a consistent summary of data augmentation methods across multiple modalities and limits the comprehension of how existing data samples serve the data augmentation process. To bridge this gap, we propose a more enlightening taxonomy that encompasses data augmentation techniques for different common data modalities. Specifically, from a data-centric perspective, this survey proposes a modality-independent taxonomy by investigating how to take advantage of the intrinsic relationship between data samples, including single-wise, pair-wise, and population-wise sample data augmentation methods. Additionally, we categorize data augmentation methods across five data modalities through a unified inductive approach.

Exploring the Deceptive Power of LLM-Generated Fake News: A Study of Real-World Detection Challenges

Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have enabled the creation of fake news, particularly in complex fields like healthcare. Studies highlight the gap in the deceptive power of LLM-generated fake news with and without human assistance, yet the potential of prompting techniques has not been fully explored. Thus, this work aims to determine whether prompting strategies can effectively narrow this gap. Current LLM-based fake news attacks require human intervention for information gathering and often miss details and fail to maintain context consistency. Therefore, to better understand threat tactics, we propose a strong fake news attack method called conditional Variational-autoencoder-Like Prompt (VLPrompt). Unlike current methods, VLPrompt eliminates the need for additional data collection while maintaining contextual coherence and preserving the intricacies of the original text. To propel future research on detecting VLPrompt attacks, we created a new dataset named VLPrompt fake news (VLPFN) containing real and fake texts. Our experiments, including various detection methods and novel human study metrics, were conducted to assess their performance on our dataset, yielding numerous findings.

Don't Go To Extremes: Revealing the Excessive Sensitivity and Calibration Limitations of LLMs in Implicit Hate Speech Detection

The fairness and trustworthiness of Large Language Models (LLMs) are receiving increasing attention. Implicit hate speech, which employs indirect language to convey hateful intentions, occupies a significant portion of practice. However, the extent to which LLMs effectively address this issue remains insufficiently examined. This paper delves into the capability of LLMs to detect implicit hate speech (Classification Task) and express confidence in their responses (Calibration Task). Our evaluation meticulously considers various prompt patterns and mainstream uncertainty estimation methods. Our findings highlight that LLMs exhibit two extremes: (1) LLMs display excessive sensitivity towards groups or topics that may cause fairness issues, resulting in misclassifying benign statements as hate speech. (2) LLMs' confidence scores for each method excessively concentrate on a fixed range, remaining unchanged regardless of the dataset's complexity. Consequently, the calibration performance is heavily reliant on primary classification accuracy. These discoveries unveil new limitations of LLMs, underscoring the need for caution when optimizing models to ensure they do not veer towards extremes. This serves as a reminder to carefully consider sensitivity and confidence in the pursuit of model fairness.

Can LLM find the green circle? Investigation and Human-guided tool manipulation for compositional generalization

The meaning of complex phrases in natural language is composed of their individual components. The task of compositional generalization evaluates a model's ability to understand new combinations of components. Previous studies trained smaller, task-specific models, which exhibited poor generalization. While large language models (LLMs) exhibit impressive generalization abilities on many tasks through in-context learning (ICL), their potential for compositional generalization remains unexplored. In this paper, we first empirically investigate prevailing ICL methods in compositional generalization. We find that they struggle with complex compositional questions due to cumulative errors in long reasoning steps and intricate logic required for tool-making. Consequently, we propose a human-guided tool manipulation framework (HTM) that generates tools for sub-questions and integrates multiple tools. Our method enhances the effectiveness of tool creation and usage with minimal human effort. Experiments show that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance on two compositional generalization benchmarks and outperforms existing methods on the most challenging test split by 70%.

Stock Movement and Volatility Prediction from Tweets, Macroeconomic Factors and Historical Prices

Predicting stock market is vital for investors and policymakers, acting as a barometer of the economic health. We leverage social media data, a potent source of public sentiment, in tandem with macroeconomic indicators as government-compiled statistics, to refine stock market predictions. However, prior research using tweet data for stock market prediction faces three challenges. First, the quality of tweets varies widely. While many are filled with noise and irrelevant details, only a few genuinely mirror the actual market scenario. Second, solely focusing on the historical data of a particular stock without considering its sector can lead to oversight. Stocks within the same industry often exhibit correlated price behaviors. Lastly, simply forecasting the direction of price movement without assessing its magnitude is of limited value, as the extent of the rise or fall truly determines profitability. In this paper, diverging from the conventional methods, we pioneer an ECON. The framework has following advantages: First, ECON has an adept tweets filter that efficiently extracts and decodes the vast array of tweet data. Second, ECON discerns multi-level relationships among stocks, sectors, and macroeconomic factors through a self-aware mechanism in semantic space. Third, ECON offers enhanced accuracy in predicting substantial stock price fluctuations by capitalizing on stock price movement. We showcase the state-of-the-art performance of our proposed model using a dataset, specifically curated by us, for predicting stock market movements and volatility.