Rethinking the Uncertainty: A Critical Review and Analysis in the Era of Large Language Models

In recent years, Large Language Models (LLMs) have become fundamental to a broad spectrum of artificial intelligence applications. As the use of LLMs expands, precisely estimating the uncertainty in their predictions has become crucial. Current methods often struggle to accurately identify, measure, and address the true uncertainty, with many focusing primarily on estimating model confidence. This discrepancy is largely due to an incomplete understanding of where, when, and how uncertainties are injected into models. This paper introduces a comprehensive framework specifically designed to identify and understand the types and sources of uncertainty, aligned with the unique characteristics of LLMs. Our framework enhances the understanding of the diverse landscape of uncertainties by systematically categorizing and defining each type, establishing a solid foundation for developing targeted methods that can precisely quantify these uncertainties. We also provide a detailed introduction to key related concepts and examine the limitations of current methods in mission-critical and safety-sensitive applications. The paper concludes with a perspective on future directions aimed at enhancing the reliability and practical adoption of these methods in real-world scenarios.

Hyper Evidential Deep Learning to Quantify Composite Classification Uncertainty

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have been shown to perform well on exclusive, multi-class classification tasks. However, when different classes have similar visual features, it becomes challenging for human annotators to differentiate them. This scenario necessitates the use of composite class labels. In this paper, we propose a novel framework called Hyper-Evidential Neural Network (HENN) that explicitly models predictive uncertainty due to composite class labels in training data in the context of the belief theory called Subjective Logic (SL). By placing a grouped Dirichlet distribution on the class probabilities, we treat predictions of a neural network as parameters of hyper-subjective opinions and learn the network that collects both single and composite evidence leading to these hyper-opinions by a deterministic DNN from data. We introduce a new uncertainty type called vagueness originally designed for hyper-opinions in SL to quantify composite classification uncertainty for DNNs. Our results demonstrate that HENN outperforms its state-of-the-art counterparts based on four image datasets. The code and datasets are available at: https://github.com/Hugo101/HyperEvidentialNN.

SusFL: Energy-Aware Federated Learning-based Monitoring for Sustainable Smart Farms

We propose a novel energy-aware federated learning (FL)-based system, namely SusFL, for sustainable smart farming to address the challenge of inconsistent health monitoring due to fluctuating energy levels of solar sensors. This system equips animals, such as cattle, with solar sensors with computational capabilities, including Raspberry Pis, to train a local deep-learning model on health data. These sensors periodically update Long Range (LoRa) gateways, forming a wireless sensor network (WSN) to detect diseases like mastitis. Our proposed SusFL system incorporates mechanism design, a game theory concept, for intelligent client selection to optimize monitoring quality while minimizing energy use. This strategy ensures the system's sustainability and resilience against adversarial attacks, including data poisoning and privacy threats, that could disrupt FL operations. Through extensive comparative analysis using real-time datasets, we demonstrate that our FL-based monitoring system significantly outperforms existing methods in prediction accuracy, operational efficiency, system reliability (i.e., mean time between failures or MTBF), and social welfare maximization by the mechanism designer. Our findings validate the superiority of our system for effective and sustainable animal health monitoring in smart farms. The experimental results show that SusFL significantly improves system performance, including a $10\%$ reduction in energy consumption, a $15\%$ increase in social welfare, and a $34\%$ rise in Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF), alongside a marginal increase in the global model's prediction accuracy.

Decision Theory-Guided Deep Reinforcement Learning for Fast Learning

This paper introduces a novel approach, Decision Theory-guided Deep Reinforcement Learning (DT-guided DRL), to address the inherent cold start problem in DRL. By integrating decision theory principles, DT-guided DRL enhances agents' initial performance and robustness in complex environments, enabling more efficient and reliable convergence during learning. Our investigation encompasses two primary problem contexts: the cart pole and maze navigation challenges. Experimental results demonstrate that the integration of decision theory not only facilitates effective initial guidance for DRL agents but also promotes a more structured and informed exploration strategy, particularly in environments characterized by large and intricate state spaces. The results of experiment demonstrate that DT-guided DRL can provide significantly higher rewards compared to regular DRL. Specifically, during the initial phase of training, the DT-guided DRL yields up to an 184% increase in accumulated reward. Moreover, even after reaching convergence, it maintains a superior performance, ending with up to 53% more reward than standard DRL in large maze problems. DT-guided DRL represents an advancement in mitigating a fundamental challenge of DRL by leveraging functions informed by human (designer) knowledge, setting a foundation for further research in this promising interdisciplinary domain.

Active Learning on Neural Networks through Interactive Generation of Digit Patterns and Visual Representation

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been broadly utilized to analyze various data and solve different domain problems. However, neural networks (NNs) have been considered a black box operation for years because their underlying computation and meaning are hidden. Due to this nature, users often face difficulties in interpreting the underlying mechanism of the NNs and the benefits of using them. In this paper, to improve users' learning and understanding of NNs, an interactive learning system is designed to create digit patterns and recognize them in real time. To help users clearly understand the visual differences of digit patterns (i.e., 0 ~ 9) and their results with an NN, integrating visualization is considered to present all digit patterns in a two-dimensional display space with supporting multiple user interactions. An evaluation with multiple datasets is conducted to determine its usability for active learning. In addition, informal user testing is managed during a summer workshop by asking the workshop participants to use the system.

Uncertainty-Aware Reward-based Deep Reinforcement Learning for Intent Analysis of Social Media Information

Due to various and serious adverse impacts of spreading fake news, it is often known that only people with malicious intent would propagate fake news. However, it is not necessarily true based on social science studies. Distinguishing the types of fake news spreaders based on their intent is critical because it will effectively guide how to intervene to mitigate the spread of fake news with different approaches. To this end, we propose an intent classification framework that can best identify the correct intent of fake news. We will leverage deep reinforcement learning (DRL) that can optimize the structural representation of each tweet by removing noisy words from the input sequence when appending an actor to the long short-term memory (LSTM) intent classifier. Policy gradient DRL model (e.g., REINFORCE) can lead the actor to a higher delayed reward. We also devise a new uncertainty-aware immediate reward using a subjective opinion that can explicitly deal with multidimensional uncertainty for effective decision-making. Via 600K training episodes from a fake news tweets dataset with an annotated intent class, we evaluate the performance of uncertainty-aware reward in DRL. Evaluation results demonstrate that our proposed framework efficiently reduces the number of selected words to maintain a high 95\% multi-class accuracy.

PPO-UE: Proximal Policy Optimization via Uncertainty-Aware Exploration

Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) is a highly popular policy-based deep reinforcement learning (DRL) approach. However, we observe that the homogeneous exploration process in PPO could cause an unexpected stability issue in the training phase. To address this issue, we propose PPO-UE, a PPO variant equipped with self-adaptive uncertainty-aware explorations (UEs) based on a ratio uncertainty level. The proposed PPO-UE is designed to improve convergence speed and performance with an optimized ratio uncertainty level. Through extensive sensitivity analysis by varying the ratio uncertainty level, our proposed PPO-UE considerably outperforms the baseline PPO in Roboschool continuous control tasks.

A Survey on Uncertainty Reasoning and Quantification for Decision Making: Belief Theory Meets Deep Learning

An in-depth understanding of uncertainty is the first step to making effective decisions under uncertainty. Deep/machine learning (ML/DL) has been hugely leveraged to solve complex problems involved with processing high-dimensional data. However, reasoning and quantifying different types of uncertainties to achieve effective decision-making have been much less explored in ML/DL than in other Artificial Intelligence (AI) domains. In particular, belief/evidence theories have been studied in KRR since the 1960s to reason and measure uncertainties to enhance decision-making effectiveness. We found that only a few studies have leveraged the mature uncertainty research in belief/evidence theories in ML/DL to tackle complex problems under different types of uncertainty. In this survey paper, we discuss several popular belief theories and their core ideas dealing with uncertainty causes and types and quantifying them, along with the discussions of their applicability in ML/DL. In addition, we discuss three main approaches that leverage belief theories in Deep Neural Networks (DNNs), including Evidential DNNs, Fuzzy DNNs, and Rough DNNs, in terms of their uncertainty causes, types, and quantification methods along with their applicability in diverse problem domains. Based on our in-depth survey, we discuss insights, lessons learned, limitations of the current state-of-the-art bridging belief theories and ML/DL, and finally, future research directions.

End-to-End Multimodal Fact-Checking and Explanation Generation: A Challenging Dataset and Models

We propose the end-to-end multimodal fact-checking and explanation generation, where the input is a claim and a large collection of web sources, including articles, images, videos, and tweets, and the goal is to assess the truthfulness of the claim by retrieving relevant evidence and predicting a truthfulness label (i.e., support, refute and not enough information), and generate a rationalization statement to explain the reasoning and ruling process. To support this research, we construct Mocheg, a large-scale dataset that consists of 21,184 claims where each claim is assigned with a truthfulness label and ruling statement, with 58,523 evidence in the form of text and images. To establish baseline performances on Mocheg, we experiment with several state-of-the-art neural architectures on the three pipelined subtasks: multimodal evidence retrieval, claim verification, and explanation generation, and demonstrate the current state-of-the-art performance of end-to-end multimodal fact-checking is still far from satisfying. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to build the benchmark dataset and solutions for end-to-end multimodal fact-checking and justification.

Game-Theoretic and Machine Learning-based Approaches for Defensive Deception: A Survey

Defensive deception is a promising approach for cyberdefense. Although defensive deception is increasingly popular in the research community, there has not been a systematic investigation of its key components, the underlying principles, and its tradeoffs in various problem settings. This survey paper focuses on defensive deception research centered on game theory and machine learning, since these are prominent families of artificial intelligence approaches that are widely employed in defensive deception. This paper brings forth insights, lessons, and limitations from prior work. It closes with an outline of some research directions to tackle major gaps in current defensive deception research.