Optimizing Product Provenance Verification using Data Valuation Methods

Determining and verifying product provenance remains a critical challenge in global supply chains, particularly as geopolitical conflicts and shifting borders create new incentives for misrepresentation of commodities, such as hiding the origin of illegally harvested timber or stolen agricultural products. Stable Isotope Ratio Analysis (SIRA), combined with Gaussian process regression-based isoscapes, has emerged as a powerful tool for geographic origin verification. However, the effectiveness of these models is often constrained by data scarcity and suboptimal dataset selection. In this work, we introduce a novel data valuation framework designed to enhance the selection and utilization of training data for machine learning models applied in SIRA. By prioritizing high-informative samples, our approach improves model robustness and predictive accuracy across diverse datasets and geographies. We validate our methodology with extensive experiments, demonstrating its potential to significantly enhance provenance verification, mitigate fraudulent trade practices, and strengthen regulatory enforcement of global supply chains.

Chasing the Timber Trail: Machine Learning to Reveal Harvest Location Misrepresentation

Illegal logging poses a significant threat to global biodiversity, climate stability, and depresses international prices for legal wood harvesting and responsible forest products trade, affecting livelihoods and communities across the globe. Stable isotope ratio analysis (SIRA) is rapidly becoming an important tool for determining the harvest location of traded, organic, products. The spatial pattern in stable isotope ratio values depends on factors such as atmospheric and environmental conditions and can thus be used for geographical identification. We present here the results of a deployed machine learning pipeline where we leverage both isotope values and atmospheric variables to determine timber harvest location. Additionally, the pipeline incorporates uncertainty estimation to facilitate the interpretation of harvest location determination for analysts. We present our experiments on a collection of oak (Quercus spp.) tree samples from its global range. Our pipeline outperforms comparable state-of-the-art models determining geographic harvest origin of commercially traded wood products, and has been used by European enforcement agencies to identify illicit Russian and Belarusian timber entering the EU market. We also identify opportunities for further advancement of our framework and how it can be generalized to help identify the origin of falsely labeled organic products throughout the supply chain.

Visualizing Temporal Topic Embeddings with a Compass

Dynamic topic modeling is useful at discovering the development and change in latent topics over time. However, present methodology relies on algorithms that separate document and word representations. This prevents the creation of a meaningful embedding space where changes in word usage and documents can be directly analyzed in a temporal context. This paper proposes an expansion of the compass-aligned temporal Word2Vec methodology into dynamic topic modeling. Such a method allows for the direct comparison of word and document embeddings across time in dynamic topics. This enables the creation of visualizations that incorporate temporal word embeddings within the context of documents into topic visualizations. In experiments against the current state-of-the-art, our proposed method demonstrates overall competitive performance in topic relevancy and diversity across temporal datasets of varying size. Simultaneously, it provides insightful visualizations focused on temporal word embeddings while maintaining the insights provided by global topic evolution, advancing our understanding of how topics evolve over time.