Aura: Universal Multi-dimensional Exogenous Integration for Aviation Time Series

Time series forecasting has witnessed an increasing demand across diverse industrial applications, where accurate predictions are pivotal for informed decision-making. Beyond numerical time series data, reliable forecasting in practical scenarios requires integrating diverse exogenous factors. Such exogenous information is often multi-dimensional or even multimodal, introducing heterogeneous interactions that unimodal time series models struggle to capture. In this paper, we delve into an aviation maintenance scenario and identify three distinct types of exogenous factors that influence temporal dynamics through distinct interaction modes. Based on this empirical insight, we propose Aura, a universal framework that explicitly organizes and encodes heterogeneous external information according to its interaction mode with the target time series. Specifically, Aura utilizes a tailored tripartite encoding mechanism to embed heterogeneous features into well-established time series models, ensuring seamless integration of non-sequential context. Extensive experiments on a large-scale, three-year industrial dataset from China Southern Airlines, covering the Boeing 777 and Airbus A320 fleets, demonstrate that Aura consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance across all baselines and exhibits superior adaptability. Our findings highlight Aura's potential as a general-purpose enhancement for aviation safety and reliability.

Timer-S1: A Billion-Scale Time Series Foundation Model with Serial Scaling

We introduce Timer-S1, a strong Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) time series foundation model with 8.3B total parameters, 0.75B activated parameters for each token, and a context length of 11.5K. To overcome the scalability bottleneck in existing pre-trained time series foundation models, we perform Serial Scaling in three dimensions: model architecture, dataset, and training pipeline. Timer-S1 integrates sparse TimeMoE blocks and generic TimeSTP blocks for Serial-Token Prediction (STP), a generic training objective that adheres to the serial nature of forecasting. The proposed paradigm introduces serial computations to improve long-term predictions while avoiding costly rolling-style inference and pronounced error accumulation in the standard next-token prediction. Pursuing a high-quality and unbiased training dataset, we curate TimeBench, a corpus with one trillion time points, and apply meticulous data augmentation to mitigate predictive bias. We further pioneer a post-training stage, including continued pre-training and long-context extension, to enhance short-term and long-context performance. Evaluated on the large-scale GIFT-Eval leaderboard, Timer-S1 achieves state-of-the-art forecasting performance, attaining the best MASE and CRPS scores as a pre-trained model. Timer-S1 will be released to facilitate further research.

Thoth: Mid-Training Bridges LLMs to Time Series Understanding

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable success in general-purpose reasoning. However, they still struggle to understand and reason about time series data, which limits their effectiveness in decision-making scenarios that depend on temporal dynamics. In this paper, we propose Thoth, the first family of mid-trained LLMs with general-purpose time series understanding capabilities. As a pivotal intermediate stage, mid-training achieves task- and domain-agnostic alignment between time series and natural language, for which we construct Book-of-Thoth, a high-quality, time-series-centric mid-training corpus. Book-of-Thoth enables both time-series-to-text and text-to-time-series generation, equipping LLMs with a foundational grasp of temporal patterns. To better evaluate advanced reasoning capabilities, we further present KnoTS, a novel benchmark of knowledge-intensive time series understanding, designed for joint reasoning over temporal patterns and domain knowledge. Extensive experiments demonstrate that mid-training with Book-of-Thoth enables Thoth to significantly outperform its base model and advanced LLMs across a range of time series question answering benchmarks. Moreover, Thoth exhibits superior capabilities when fine-tuned under data scarcity, underscoring the effectiveness of mid-training for time series understanding. Code is available at: https://github.com/thuml/Thoth.

TiMi: Empower Time Series Transformers with Multimodal Mixture of Experts

Multimodal time series forecasting has garnered significant attention for its potential to provide more accurate predictions than traditional single-modality models by leveraging rich information inherent in other modalities. However, due to fundamental challenges in modality alignment, existing methods often struggle to effectively incorporate multimodal data into predictions, particularly textual information that has a causal influence on time series fluctuations, such as emergency reports and policy announcements. In this paper, we reflect on the role of textual information in numerical forecasting and propose Time series transformers with Multimodal Mixture-of-Experts, TiMi, to unleash the causal reasoning capabilities of LLMs. Concretely, TiMi utilizes LLMs to generate inferences on future developments, which serve as guidance for time series forecasting. To seamlessly integrate both exogenous factors and time series into predictions, we introduce a Multimodal Mixture-of-Experts (MMoE) module as a lightweight plug-in to empower Transformer-based time series models for multimodal forecasting, eliminating the need for explicit representation-level alignment. Experimentally, our proposed TiMi demonstrates consistent state-of-the-art performance on sixteen real-world multimodal forecasting benchmarks, outperforming advanced baselines while offering both strong adaptability and interpretability.

How Do We Research Human-Robot Interaction in the Age of Large Language Models? A Systematic Review

Advances in large language models (LLMs) are profoundly reshaping the field of human-robot interaction (HRI). While prior work has highlighted the technical potential of LLMs, few studies have systematically examined their human-centered impact (e.g., human-oriented understanding, user modeling, and levels of autonomy), making it difficult to consolidate emerging challenges in LLM-driven HRI systems. Therefore, we conducted a systematic literature search following the PRISMA guideline, identifying 86 articles that met our inclusion criteria. Our findings reveal that: (1) LLMs are transforming the fundamentals of HRI by reshaping how robots sense context, generate socially grounded interactions, and maintain continuous alignment with human needs in embodied settings; and (2) current research is largely exploratory, with different studies focusing on different facets of LLM-driven HRI, resulting in wide-ranging choices of experimental setups, study methods, and evaluation metrics. Finally, we identify key design considerations and challenges, offering a coherent overview and guidelines for future research at the intersection of LLMs and HRI.

General Humanoid Whole-Body Control via Pretraining and Fast Adaptation

Learning a general whole-body controller for humanoid robots remains challenging due to the diversity of motion distributions, the difficulty of fast adaptation, and the need for robust balance in high-dynamic scenarios. Existing approaches often require task-specific training or suffer from performance degradation when adapting to new motions. In this paper, we present FAST, a general humanoid whole-body control framework that enables Fast Adaptation and Stable Motion Tracking. FAST introduces Parseval-Guided Residual Policy Adaptation, which learns a lightweight delta action policy under orthogonality and KL constraints, enabling efficient adaptation to out-of-distribution motions while mitigating catastrophic forgetting. To further improve physical robustness, we propose Center-of-Mass-Aware Control, which incorporates CoM-related observations and objectives to enhance balance when tracking challenging reference motions. Extensive experiments in simulation and real-world deployment demonstrate that FAST consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in robustness, adaptation efficiency, and generalization.

DiTS: Multimodal Diffusion Transformers Are Time Series Forecasters

While generative modeling on time series facilitates more capable and flexible probabilistic forecasting, existing generative time series models do not address the multi-dimensional properties of time series data well. The prevalent architecture of Diffusion Transformers (DiT), which relies on simplistic conditioning controls and a single-stream Transformer backbone, tends to underutilize cross-variate dependencies in covariate-aware forecasting. Inspired by Multimodal Diffusion Transformers that integrate textual guidance into video generation, we propose Diffusion Transformers for Time Series (DiTS), a general-purpose architecture that frames endogenous and exogenous variates as distinct modalities. To better capture both inter-variate and intra-variate dependencies, we design a dual-stream Transformer block tailored for time-series data, comprising a Time Attention module for autoregressive modeling along the temporal dimension and a Variate Attention module for cross-variate modeling. Unlike the common approach for images, which flattens 2D token grids into 1D sequences, our design leverages the low-rank property inherent in multivariate dependencies, thereby reducing computational costs. Experiments show that DiTS achieves state-of-the-art performance across benchmarks, regardless of the presence of future exogenous variate observations, demonstrating unique generative forecasting strengths over traditional deterministic deep forecasting models.

Temporal Leakage in Search-Engine Date-Filtered Web Retrieval: A Case Study from Retrospective Forecasting

Search-engine date filters are widely used to enforce pre-cutoff retrieval in retrospective evaluations of search-augmented forecasters. We show this approach is unreliable: auditing Google Search with a before: filter, 71% of questions return at least one page containing strong post-cutoff leakage, and for 41%, at least one page directly reveals the answer. Using a large language model (LLM), gpt-oss-120b, to forecast with these leaky documents, we demonstrate an inflated prediction accuracy (Brier score 0.108 vs. 0.242 with leak-free documents). We characterize common leakage mechanisms, including updated articles, related-content modules, unreliable metadata/timestamps, and absence-based signals, and argue that date-restricted search is insufficient for temporal evaluation. We recommend stronger retrieval safeguards or evaluation on frozen, time-stamped web snapshots to ensure credible retrospective forecasting.

FaLW: A Forgetting-aware Loss Reweighting for Long-tailed Unlearning

Machine unlearning, which aims to efficiently remove the influence of specific data from trained models, is crucial for upholding data privacy regulations like the ``right to be forgotten". However, existing research predominantly evaluates unlearning methods on relatively balanced forget sets. This overlooks a common real-world scenario where data to be forgotten, such as a user's activity records, follows a long-tailed distribution. Our work is the first to investigate this critical research gap. We find that in such long-tailed settings, existing methods suffer from two key issues: \textit{Heterogeneous Unlearning Deviation} and \textit{Skewed Unlearning Deviation}. To address these challenges, we propose FaLW, a plug-and-play, instance-wise dynamic loss reweighting method. FaLW innovatively assesses the unlearning state of each sample by comparing its predictive probability to the distribution of unseen data from the same class. Based on this, it uses a forgetting-aware reweighting scheme, modulated by a balancing factor, to adaptively adjust the unlearning intensity for each sample. Extensive experiments demonstrate that FaLW achieves superior performance. Code is available at \textbf{Supplementary Material}.

Simulated Ignorance Fails: A Systematic Study of LLM Behaviors on Forecasting Problems Before Model Knowledge Cutoff

Evaluating LLM forecasting capabilities is constrained by a fundamental tension: prospective evaluation offers methodological rigor but prohibitive latency, while retrospective forecasting (RF) -- evaluating on already-resolved events -- faces rapidly shrinking clean evaluation data as SOTA models possess increasingly recent knowledge cutoffs. Simulated Ignorance (SI), prompting models to suppress pre-cutoff knowledge, has emerged as a potential solution. We provide the first systematic test of whether SI can approximate True Ignorance (TI). Across 477 competition-level questions and 9 models, we find that SI fails systematically: (1) cutoff instructions leave a 52% performance gap between SI and TI; (2) chain-of-thought reasoning fails to suppress prior knowledge, even when reasoning traces contain no explicit post-cutoff references; (3) reasoning-optimized models exhibit worse SI fidelity despite superior reasoning trace quality. These findings demonstrate that prompts cannot reliably "rewind" model knowledge. We conclude that RF on pre-cutoff events is methodologically flawed; we recommend against using SI-based retrospective setups to benchmark forecasting capabilities.