DyGKT: Dynamic Graph Learning for Knowledge Tracing

Knowledge Tracing aims to assess student learning states by predicting their performance in answering questions. Different from the existing research which utilizes fixed-length learning sequence to obtain the student states and regards KT as a static problem, this work is motivated by three dynamical characteristics: 1) The scales of students answering records are constantly growing; 2) The semantics of time intervals between the records vary; 3) The relationships between students, questions and concepts are evolving. The three dynamical characteristics above contain the great potential to revolutionize the existing knowledge tracing methods. Along this line, we propose a Dynamic Graph-based Knowledge Tracing model, namely DyGKT. In particular, a continuous-time dynamic question-answering graph for knowledge tracing is constructed to deal with the infinitely growing answering behaviors, and it is worth mentioning that it is the first time dynamic graph learning technology is used in this field. Then, a dual time encoder is proposed to capture long-term and short-term semantics among the different time intervals. Finally, a multiset indicator is utilized to model the evolving relationships between students, questions, and concepts via the graph structural feature. Numerous experiments are conducted on five real-world datasets, and the results demonstrate the superiority of our model. All the used resources are publicly available at https://github.com/PengLinzhi/DyGKT.

Make Graph Neural Networks Great Again: A Generic Integration Paradigm of Topology-Free Patterns for Traffic Speed Prediction

Urban traffic speed prediction aims to estimate the future traffic speed for improving urban transportation services. Enormous efforts have been made to exploit Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) for modeling spatial correlations and temporal dependencies of traffic speed evolving patterns, regularized by graph topology.While achieving promising results, current traffic speed prediction methods still suffer from ignoring topology-free patterns, which cannot be captured by GNNs. To tackle this challenge, we propose a generic model for enabling the current GNN-based methods to preserve topology-free patterns. Specifically, we first develop a Dual Cross-Scale Transformer (DCST) architecture, including a Spatial Transformer and a Temporal Transformer, to preserve the cross-scale topology-free patterns and associated dynamics, respectively. Then, to further integrate both topology-regularized/-free patterns, we propose a distillation-style learning framework, in which the existing GNN-based methods are considered as the teacher model, and the proposed DCST architecture is considered as the student model. The teacher model would inject the learned topology-regularized patterns into the student model for integrating topology-free patterns. The extensive experimental results demonstrated the effectiveness of our methods.

A Comprehensive Survey on Data Augmentation

Data augmentation is a series of techniques that generate high-quality artificial data by manipulating existing data samples. By leveraging data augmentation techniques, AI models can achieve significantly improved applicability in tasks involving scarce or imbalanced datasets, thereby substantially enhancing AI models' generalization capabilities. Existing literature surveys only focus on a certain type of specific modality data, and categorize these methods from modality-specific and operation-centric perspectives, which lacks a consistent summary of data augmentation methods across multiple modalities and limits the comprehension of how existing data samples serve the data augmentation process. To bridge this gap, we propose a more enlightening taxonomy that encompasses data augmentation techniques for different common data modalities. Specifically, from a data-centric perspective, this survey proposes a modality-independent taxonomy by investigating how to take advantage of the intrinsic relationship between data samples, including single-wise, pair-wise, and population-wise sample data augmentation methods. Additionally, we categorize data augmentation methods across five data modalities through a unified inductive approach.

FedGCS: A Generative Framework for Efficient Client Selection in Federated Learning via Gradient-based Optimization

Federated Learning faces significant challenges in statistical and system heterogeneity, along with high energy consumption, necessitating efficient client selection strategies. Traditional approaches, including heuristic and learning-based methods, fall short of addressing these complexities holistically. In response, we propose FedGCS, a novel generative client selection framework that innovatively recasts the client selection process as a generative task. Drawing inspiration from the methodologies used in large language models, FedGCS efficiently encodes abundant decision-making knowledge within a continuous representation space, enabling efficient gradient-based optimization to search for optimal client selection that will be finally output via generation. The framework comprises four steps: (1) automatic collection of diverse "selection-score" pair data using classical client selection methods; (2) training an encoder-evaluator-decoder framework on this data to construct a continuous representation space; (3) employing gradient-based optimization in this space for optimal client selection; (4) generating the final optimal client selection via using beam search for the well-trained decoder. FedGCS outperforms traditional methods by being more comprehensive, generalizable, and efficient, simultaneously optimizing for model performance, latency, and energy consumption. The effectiveness of FedGCS is proven through extensive experimental analyses.

REPLAY: Modeling Time-Varying Temporal Regularities of Human Mobility for Location Prediction over Sparse Trajectories

Location prediction forecasts a user's location based on historical user mobility traces. To tackle the intrinsic sparsity issue of real-world user mobility traces, spatiotemporal contexts have been shown as significantly useful. Existing solutions mostly incorporate spatiotemporal distances between locations in mobility traces, either by feeding them as additional inputs to Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) or by using them to search for informative past hidden states for prediction. However, such distance-based methods fail to capture the time-varying temporal regularities of human mobility, where human mobility is often more regular in the morning than in other periods, for example; this suggests the usefulness of the actual timestamps besides the temporal distances. Against this background, we propose REPLAY, a general RNN architecture learning to capture the time-varying temporal regularities for location prediction. Specifically, REPLAY not only resorts to the spatiotemporal distances in sparse trajectories to search for the informative past hidden states, but also accommodates the time-varying temporal regularities by incorporating smoothed timestamp embeddings using Gaussian weighted averaging with timestamp-specific learnable bandwidths, which can flexibly adapt to the temporal regularities of different strengths across different timestamps. Our extensive evaluation compares REPLAY against a sizable collection of state-of-the-art techniques on two real-world datasets. Results show that REPLAY consistently and significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods by 7.7\%-10.9\% in the location prediction task, and the bandwidths reveal interesting patterns of the time-varying temporal regularities.

Addressing Distribution Shift in Time Series Forecasting with Instance Normalization Flows

Due to non-stationarity of time series, the distribution shift problem largely hinders the performance of time series forecasting. Existing solutions either fail for the shifts beyond simple statistics or the limited compatibility with forecasting models. In this paper, we propose a general decoupled formulation for time series forecasting, with no reliance on fixed statistics and no restriction on forecasting architectures. Then, we make such a formulation formalized into a bi-level optimization problem, to enable the joint learning of the transformation (outer loop) and forecasting (inner loop). Moreover, the special requirements of expressiveness and bi-direction for the transformation motivate us to propose instance normalization flows (IN-Flow), a novel invertible network for time series transformation. Extensive experiments demonstrate our method consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on both synthetic and real-world data.

Spatial-Temporal Interplay in Human Mobility: A Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning Approach with Hypergraph Representation

In the realm of human mobility, the decision-making process for selecting the next-visit location is intricately influenced by a trade-off between spatial and temporal constraints, which are reflective of individual needs and preferences. This trade-off, however, varies across individuals, making the modeling of these spatial-temporal dynamics a formidable challenge. To address the problem, in this work, we introduce the "Spatial-temporal Induced Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning" (STI-HRL) framework, for capturing the interplay between spatial and temporal factors in human mobility decision-making. Specifically, STI-HRL employs a two-tiered decision-making process: the low-level focuses on disentangling spatial and temporal preferences using dedicated agents, while the high-level integrates these considerations to finalize the decision. To complement the hierarchical decision setting, we construct a hypergraph to organize historical data, encapsulating the multi-aspect semantics of human mobility. We propose a cross-channel hypergraph embedding module to learn the representations as the states to facilitate the decision-making cycle. Our extensive experiments on two real-world datasets validate the superiority of STI-HRL over state-of-the-art methods in predicting users' next visits across various performance metrics.

Frequency-domain MLPs are More Effective Learners in Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting has played the key role in different industrial, including finance, traffic, energy, and healthcare domains. While existing literatures have designed many sophisticated architectures based on RNNs, GNNs, or Transformers, another kind of approaches based on multi-layer perceptrons (MLPs) are proposed with simple structure, low complexity, and {superior performance}. However, most MLP-based forecasting methods suffer from the point-wise mappings and information bottleneck, which largely hinders the forecasting performance. To overcome this problem, we explore a novel direction of applying MLPs in the frequency domain for time series forecasting. We investigate the learned patterns of frequency-domain MLPs and discover their two inherent characteristic benefiting forecasting, (i) global view: frequency spectrum makes MLPs own a complete view for signals and learn global dependencies more easily, and (ii) energy compaction: frequency-domain MLPs concentrate on smaller key part of frequency components with compact signal energy. Then, we propose FreTS, a simple yet effective architecture built upon Frequency-domain MLPs for Time Series forecasting. FreTS mainly involves two stages, (i) Domain Conversion, that transforms time-domain signals into complex numbers of frequency domain; (ii) Frequency Learning, that performs our redesigned MLPs for the learning of real and imaginary part of frequency components. The above stages operated on both inter-series and intra-series scales further contribute to channel-wise and time-wise dependency learning. Extensive experiments on 13 real-world benchmarks (including 7 benchmarks for short-term forecasting and 6 benchmarks for long-term forecasting) demonstrate our consistent superiority over state-of-the-art methods.

FourierGNN: Rethinking Multivariate Time Series Forecasting from a Pure Graph Perspective

Multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting has shown great importance in numerous industries. Current state-of-the-art graph neural network (GNN)-based forecasting methods usually require both graph networks (e.g., GCN) and temporal networks (e.g., LSTM) to capture inter-series (spatial) dynamics and intra-series (temporal) dependencies, respectively. However, the uncertain compatibility of the two networks puts an extra burden on handcrafted model designs. Moreover, the separate spatial and temporal modeling naturally violates the unified spatiotemporal inter-dependencies in real world, which largely hinders the forecasting performance. To overcome these problems, we explore an interesting direction of directly applying graph networks and rethink MTS forecasting from a pure graph perspective. We first define a novel data structure, hypervariate graph, which regards each series value (regardless of variates or timestamps) as a graph node, and represents sliding windows as space-time fully-connected graphs. This perspective considers spatiotemporal dynamics unitedly and reformulates classic MTS forecasting into the predictions on hypervariate graphs. Then, we propose a novel architecture Fourier Graph Neural Network (FourierGNN) by stacking our proposed Fourier Graph Operator (FGO) to perform matrix multiplications in Fourier space. FourierGNN accommodates adequate expressiveness and achieves much lower complexity, which can effectively and efficiently accomplish the forecasting. Besides, our theoretical analysis reveals FGO's equivalence to graph convolutions in the time domain, which further verifies the validity of FourierGNN. Extensive experiments on seven datasets have demonstrated our superior performance with higher efficiency and fewer parameters compared with state-of-the-art methods.

Dual-stage Flows-based Generative Modeling for Traceable Urban Planning

Urban planning, which aims to design feasible land-use configurations for target areas, has become increasingly essential due to the high-speed urbanization process in the modern era. However, the traditional urban planning conducted by human designers can be a complex and onerous task. Thanks to the advancement of deep learning algorithms, researchers have started to develop automated planning techniques. While these models have exhibited promising results, they still grapple with a couple of unresolved limitations: 1) Ignoring the relationship between urban functional zones and configurations and failing to capture the relationship among different functional zones. 2) Less interpretable and stable generation process. To overcome these limitations, we propose a novel generative framework based on normalizing flows, namely Dual-stage Urban Flows (DSUF) framework. Specifically, the first stage is to utilize zone-level urban planning flows to generate urban functional zones based on given surrounding contexts and human guidance. Then we employ an Information Fusion Module to capture the relationship among functional zones and fuse the information of different aspects. The second stage is to use configuration-level urban planning flows to obtain land-use configurations derived from fused information. We design several experiments to indicate that our framework can outperform compared to other generative models for the urban planning task.