Beyond Binary Success: Sample-Efficient and Statistically Rigorous Robot Policy Comparison

Generalist robot manipulation policies are becoming increasingly capable, but are limited in evaluation to a small number of hardware rollouts. This strong resource constraint in real-world testing necessitates both more informative performance measures and reliable and efficient evaluation procedures to properly assess model capabilities and benchmark progress in the field. This work presents a novel framework for robot policy comparison that is sample-efficient, statistically rigorous, and applicable to a broad set of evaluation metrics used in practice. Based on safe, anytime-valid inference (SAVI), our test procedure is sequential, allowing the evaluator to stop early when sufficient statistical evidence has accumulated to reach a decision at a pre-specified level of confidence. Unlike previous work developed for binary success, our unified approach addresses a wide range of informative metrics: from discrete partial credit task progress to continuous measures of episodic reward or trajectory smoothness, spanning both parametric and nonparametric comparison problems. Through extensive validation on simulated and real-world evaluation data, we demonstrate up to 70% reduction in evaluation burden compared to standard batch methods and up to 50% reduction compared to state-of-the-art sequential procedures designed for binary outcomes, with no loss of statistical rigor. Notably, our empirical results show that competing policies can be separated more quickly when using fine-grained task progress than binary success metrics.

Impact of Different Failures on a Robot's Perceived Reliability

Robots fail, potentially leading to a loss in the robot's perceived reliability (PR), a measure correlated with trustworthiness. In this study we examine how various kinds of failures affect the PR of the robot differently, and how this measure recovers without explicit social repair actions by the robot. In a preregistered and controlled online video study, participants were asked to predict a robot's success in a pick-and-place task. We examined manipulation failures (slips), freezing (lapses), and three types of incorrect picked objects or place goals (mistakes). Participants were shown one of 11 videos -- one of five types of failure, one of five types of failure followed by a successful execution in the same video, or a successful execution video. This was followed by two additional successful execution videos. Participants bet money either on the robot or on a coin toss after each video. People's betting patterns along with a qualitative analysis of their survey responses highlight that mistakes are less damaging to PR than slips or lapses, and some mistakes are even perceived as successes. We also see that successes immediately following a failure have the same effect on PR as successes without a preceding failure. Finally, we show that successful executions recover PR after a failure. Our findings highlight which robot failures are in higher need of repair in a human-robot interaction, and how trust could be recovered by robot successes.

The Impact of Class Uncertainty Propagation in Perception-Based Motion Planning

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are being increasingly deployed in urban environments. In order to operate safely and reliably, AVs need to account for the inherent uncertainty associated with perceiving the world through sensor data and incorporate that into their decision-making process. Uncertainty-aware planners have recently been developed to account for upstream perception and prediction uncertainty. However, such planners may be sensitive to prediction uncertainty miscalibration, the magnitude of which has not yet been characterized. Towards this end, we perform a detailed analysis on the impact that perceptual uncertainty propagation and calibration has on perception-based motion planning. We do so by comparing two novel prediction-planning pipelines with varying levels of uncertainty propagation on the recently-released nuPlan planning benchmark. We study the impact of upstream uncertainty calibration using closed-loop evaluation on the nuPlan challenge scenarios. We find that the method incorporating upstream uncertainty propagation demonstrates superior generalization to complex closed-loop scenarios.

CUPID: Curating Data your Robot Loves with Influence Functions

In robot imitation learning, policy performance is tightly coupled with the quality and composition of the demonstration data. Yet, developing a precise understanding of how individual demonstrations contribute to downstream outcomes - such as closed-loop task success or failure - remains a persistent challenge. We propose CUPID, a robot data curation method based on a novel influence function-theoretic formulation for imitation learning policies. Given a set of evaluation rollouts, CUPID estimates the influence of each training demonstration on the policy's expected return. This enables ranking and selection of demonstrations according to their impact on the policy's closed-loop performance. We use CUPID to curate data by 1) filtering out training demonstrations that harm policy performance and 2) subselecting newly collected trajectories that will most improve the policy. Extensive simulated and hardware experiments show that our approach consistently identifies which data drives test-time performance. For example, training with less than 33% of curated data can yield state-of-the-art diffusion policies on the simulated RoboMimic benchmark, with similar gains observed in hardware. Furthermore, hardware experiments show that our method can identify robust strategies under distribution shift, isolate spurious correlations, and even enhance the post-training of generalist robot policies. Additional materials are made available at: https://cupid-curation.github.io.

SAFE: Multitask Failure Detection for Vision-Language-Action Models

While vision-language-action models (VLAs) have shown promising robotic behaviors across a diverse set of manipulation tasks, they achieve limited success rates when deployed on novel tasks out-of-the-box. To allow these policies to safely interact with their environments, we need a failure detector that gives a timely alert such that the robot can stop, backtrack, or ask for help. However, existing failure detectors are trained and tested only on one or a few specific tasks, while VLAs require the detector to generalize and detect failures also in unseen tasks and novel environments. In this paper, we introduce the multitask failure detection problem and propose SAFE, a failure detector for generalist robot policies such as VLAs. We analyze the VLA feature space and find that VLAs have sufficient high-level knowledge about task success and failure, which is generic across different tasks. Based on this insight, we design SAFE to learn from VLA internal features and predict a single scalar indicating the likelihood of task failure. SAFE is trained on both successful and failed rollouts, and is evaluated on unseen tasks. SAFE is compatible with different policy architectures. We test it on OpenVLA, $\pi_0$, and $\pi_0$-FAST in both simulated and real-world environments extensively. We compare SAFE with diverse baselines and show that SAFE achieves state-of-the-art failure detection performance and the best trade-off between accuracy and detection time using conformal prediction. More qualitative results can be found at https://vla-safe.github.io/.

STITCH-OPE: Trajectory Stitching with Guided Diffusion for Off-Policy Evaluation

Off-policy evaluation (OPE) estimates the performance of a target policy using offline data collected from a behavior policy, and is crucial in domains such as robotics or healthcare where direct interaction with the environment is costly or unsafe. Existing OPE methods are ineffective for high-dimensional, long-horizon problems, due to exponential blow-ups in variance from importance weighting or compounding errors from learned dynamics models. To address these challenges, we propose STITCH-OPE, a model-based generative framework that leverages denoising diffusion for long-horizon OPE in high-dimensional state and action spaces. Starting with a diffusion model pre-trained on the behavior data, STITCH-OPE generates synthetic trajectories from the target policy by guiding the denoising process using the score function of the target policy. STITCH-OPE proposes two technical innovations that make it advantageous for OPE: (1) prevents over-regularization by subtracting the score of the behavior policy during guidance, and (2) generates long-horizon trajectories by stitching partial trajectories together end-to-end. We provide a theoretical guarantee that under mild assumptions, these modifications result in an exponential reduction in variance versus long-horizon trajectory diffusion. Experiments on the D4RL and OpenAI Gym benchmarks show substantial improvement in mean squared error, correlation, and regret metrics compared to state-of-the-art OPE methods.

Is Your Imitation Learning Policy Better than Mine? Policy Comparison with Near-Optimal Stopping

Imitation learning has enabled robots to perform complex, long-horizon tasks in challenging dexterous manipulation settings. As new methods are developed, they must be rigorously evaluated and compared against corresponding baselines through repeated evaluation trials. However, policy comparison is fundamentally constrained by a small feasible sample size (e.g., 10 or 50) due to significant human effort and limited inference throughput of policies. This paper proposes a novel statistical framework for rigorously comparing two policies in the small sample size regime. Prior work in statistical policy comparison relies on batch testing, which requires a fixed, pre-determined number of trials and lacks flexibility in adapting the sample size to the observed evaluation data. Furthermore, extending the test with additional trials risks inducing inadvertent p-hacking, undermining statistical assurances. In contrast, our proposed statistical test is sequential, allowing researchers to decide whether or not to run more trials based on intermediate results. This adaptively tailors the number of trials to the difficulty of the underlying comparison, saving significant time and effort without sacrificing probabilistic correctness. Extensive numerical simulation and real-world robot manipulation experiments show that our test achieves near-optimal stopping, letting researchers stop evaluation and make a decision in a near-minimal number of trials. Specifically, it reduces the number of evaluation trials by up to 40% as compared to state-of-the-art baselines, while preserving the probabilistic correctness and statistical power of the comparison. Moreover, our method is strongest in the most challenging comparison instances (requiring the most evaluation trials); in a multi-task comparison scenario, we save the evaluator more than 200 simulation rollouts.

Can We Detect Failures Without Failure Data? Uncertainty-Aware Runtime Failure Detection for Imitation Learning Policies

Recent years have witnessed impressive robotic manipulation systems driven by advances in imitation learning and generative modeling, such as diffusion- and flow-based approaches. As robot policy performance increases, so does the complexity and time horizon of achievable tasks, inducing unexpected and diverse failure modes that are difficult to predict a priori. To enable trustworthy policy deployment in safety-critical human environments, reliable runtime failure detection becomes important during policy inference. However, most existing failure detection approaches rely on prior knowledge of failure modes and require failure data during training, which imposes a significant challenge in practicality and scalability. In response to these limitations, we present FAIL-Detect, a modular two-stage approach for failure detection in imitation learning-based robotic manipulation. To accurately identify failures from successful training data alone, we frame the problem as sequential out-of-distribution (OOD) detection. We first distill policy inputs and outputs into scalar signals that correlate with policy failures and capture epistemic uncertainty. FAIL-Detect then employs conformal prediction (CP) as a versatile framework for uncertainty quantification with statistical guarantees. Empirically, we thoroughly investigate both learned and post-hoc scalar signal candidates on diverse robotic manipulation tasks. Our experiments show learned signals to be mostly consistently effective, particularly when using our novel flow-based density estimator. Furthermore, our method detects failures more accurately and faster than state-of-the-art (SOTA) failure detection baselines. These results highlight the potential of FAIL-Detect to enhance the safety and reliability of imitation learning-based robotic systems as they progress toward real-world deployment.

GHIL-Glue: Hierarchical Control with Filtered Subgoal Images

Image and video generative models that are pre-trained on Internet-scale data can greatly increase the generalization capacity of robot learning systems. These models can function as high-level planners, generating intermediate subgoals for low-level goal-conditioned policies to reach. However, the performance of these systems can be greatly bottlenecked by the interface between generative models and low-level controllers. For example, generative models may predict photorealistic yet physically infeasible frames that confuse low-level policies. Low-level policies may also be sensitive to subtle visual artifacts in generated goal images. This paper addresses these two facets of generalization, providing an interface to effectively "glue together" language-conditioned image or video prediction models with low-level goal-conditioned policies. Our method, Generative Hierarchical Imitation Learning-Glue (GHIL-Glue), filters out subgoals that do not lead to task progress and improves the robustness of goal-conditioned policies to generated subgoals with harmful visual artifacts. We find in extensive experiments in both simulated and real environments that GHIL-Glue achieves a 25% improvement across several hierarchical models that leverage generative subgoals, achieving a new state-of-the-art on the CALVIN simulation benchmark for policies using observations from a single RGB camera. GHIL-Glue also outperforms other generalist robot policies across 3/4 language-conditioned manipulation tasks testing zero-shot generalization in physical experiments.

Self-supervised Multi-future Occupancy Forecasting for Autonomous Driving

Environment prediction frameworks are critical for the safe navigation of autonomous vehicles (AVs) in dynamic settings. LiDAR-generated occupancy grid maps (L-OGMs) offer a robust bird's-eye view for the scene representation, enabling self-supervised joint scene predictions while exhibiting resilience to partial observability and perception detection failures. Prior approaches have focused on deterministic L-OGM prediction architectures within the grid cell space. While these methods have seen some success, they frequently produce unrealistic predictions and fail to capture the stochastic nature of the environment. Additionally, they do not effectively integrate additional sensor modalities present in AVs. Our proposed framework performs stochastic L-OGM prediction in the latent space of a generative architecture and allows for conditioning on RGB cameras, maps, and planned trajectories. We decode predictions using either a single-step decoder, which provides high-quality predictions in real-time, or a diffusion-based batch decoder, which can further refine the decoded frames to address temporal consistency issues and reduce compression losses. Our experiments on the nuScenes and Waymo Open datasets show that all variants of our approach qualitatively and quantitatively outperform prior approaches.