Is Your Imitation Learning Policy Better than Mine? Policy Comparison with Near-Optimal Stopping

Imitation learning has enabled robots to perform complex, long-horizon tasks in challenging dexterous manipulation settings. As new methods are developed, they must be rigorously evaluated and compared against corresponding baselines through repeated evaluation trials. However, policy comparison is fundamentally constrained by a small feasible sample size (e.g., 10 or 50) due to significant human effort and limited inference throughput of policies. This paper proposes a novel statistical framework for rigorously comparing two policies in the small sample size regime. Prior work in statistical policy comparison relies on batch testing, which requires a fixed, pre-determined number of trials and lacks flexibility in adapting the sample size to the observed evaluation data. Furthermore, extending the test with additional trials risks inducing inadvertent p-hacking, undermining statistical assurances. In contrast, our proposed statistical test is sequential, allowing researchers to decide whether or not to run more trials based on intermediate results. This adaptively tailors the number of trials to the difficulty of the underlying comparison, saving significant time and effort without sacrificing probabilistic correctness. Extensive numerical simulation and real-world robot manipulation experiments show that our test achieves near-optimal stopping, letting researchers stop evaluation and make a decision in a near-minimal number of trials. Specifically, it reduces the number of evaluation trials by up to 40% as compared to state-of-the-art baselines, while preserving the probabilistic correctness and statistical power of the comparison. Moreover, our method is strongest in the most challenging comparison instances (requiring the most evaluation trials); in a multi-task comparison scenario, we save the evaluator more than 200 simulation rollouts.

Can We Detect Failures Without Failure Data? Uncertainty-Aware Runtime Failure Detection for Imitation Learning Policies

Recent years have witnessed impressive robotic manipulation systems driven by advances in imitation learning and generative modeling, such as diffusion- and flow-based approaches. As robot policy performance increases, so does the complexity and time horizon of achievable tasks, inducing unexpected and diverse failure modes that are difficult to predict a priori. To enable trustworthy policy deployment in safety-critical human environments, reliable runtime failure detection becomes important during policy inference. However, most existing failure detection approaches rely on prior knowledge of failure modes and require failure data during training, which imposes a significant challenge in practicality and scalability. In response to these limitations, we present FAIL-Detect, a modular two-stage approach for failure detection in imitation learning-based robotic manipulation. To accurately identify failures from successful training data alone, we frame the problem as sequential out-of-distribution (OOD) detection. We first distill policy inputs and outputs into scalar signals that correlate with policy failures and capture epistemic uncertainty. FAIL-Detect then employs conformal prediction (CP) as a versatile framework for uncertainty quantification with statistical guarantees. Empirically, we thoroughly investigate both learned and post-hoc scalar signal candidates on diverse robotic manipulation tasks. Our experiments show learned signals to be mostly consistently effective, particularly when using our novel flow-based density estimator. Furthermore, our method detects failures more accurately and faster than state-of-the-art (SOTA) failure detection baselines. These results highlight the potential of FAIL-Detect to enhance the safety and reliability of imitation learning-based robotic systems as they progress toward real-world deployment.

GHIL-Glue: Hierarchical Control with Filtered Subgoal Images

Image and video generative models that are pre-trained on Internet-scale data can greatly increase the generalization capacity of robot learning systems. These models can function as high-level planners, generating intermediate subgoals for low-level goal-conditioned policies to reach. However, the performance of these systems can be greatly bottlenecked by the interface between generative models and low-level controllers. For example, generative models may predict photorealistic yet physically infeasible frames that confuse low-level policies. Low-level policies may also be sensitive to subtle visual artifacts in generated goal images. This paper addresses these two facets of generalization, providing an interface to effectively "glue together" language-conditioned image or video prediction models with low-level goal-conditioned policies. Our method, Generative Hierarchical Imitation Learning-Glue (GHIL-Glue), filters out subgoals that do not lead to task progress and improves the robustness of goal-conditioned policies to generated subgoals with harmful visual artifacts. We find in extensive experiments in both simulated and real environments that GHIL-Glue achieves a 25% improvement across several hierarchical models that leverage generative subgoals, achieving a new state-of-the-art on the CALVIN simulation benchmark for policies using observations from a single RGB camera. GHIL-Glue also outperforms other generalist robot policies across 3/4 language-conditioned manipulation tasks testing zero-shot generalization in physical experiments.

Self-supervised Multi-future Occupancy Forecasting for Autonomous Driving

Environment prediction frameworks are critical for the safe navigation of autonomous vehicles (AVs) in dynamic settings. LiDAR-generated occupancy grid maps (L-OGMs) offer a robust bird's-eye view for the scene representation, enabling self-supervised joint scene predictions while exhibiting resilience to partial observability and perception detection failures. Prior approaches have focused on deterministic L-OGM prediction architectures within the grid cell space. While these methods have seen some success, they frequently produce unrealistic predictions and fail to capture the stochastic nature of the environment. Additionally, they do not effectively integrate additional sensor modalities present in AVs. Our proposed framework performs stochastic L-OGM prediction in the latent space of a generative architecture and allows for conditioning on RGB cameras, maps, and planned trajectories. We decode predictions using either a single-step decoder, which provides high-quality predictions in real-time, or a diffusion-based batch decoder, which can further refine the decoded frames to address temporal consistency issues and reduce compression losses. Our experiments on the nuScenes and Waymo Open datasets show that all variants of our approach qualitatively and quantitatively outperform prior approaches.

How Generalizable Is My Behavior Cloning Policy? A Statistical Approach to Trustworthy Performance Evaluation

With the rise of stochastic generative models in robot policy learning, end-to-end visuomotor policies are increasingly successful at solving complex tasks by learning from human demonstrations. Nevertheless, since real-world evaluation costs afford users only a small number of policy rollouts, it remains a challenge to accurately gauge the performance of such policies. This is exacerbated by distribution shifts causing unpredictable changes in performance during deployment. To rigorously evaluate behavior cloning policies, we present a framework that provides a tight lower-bound on robot performance in an arbitrary environment, using a minimal number of experimental policy rollouts. Notably, by applying the standard stochastic ordering to robot performance distributions, we provide a worst-case bound on the entire distribution of performance (via bounds on the cumulative distribution function) for a given task. We build upon established statistical results to ensure that the bounds hold with a user-specified confidence level and tightness, and are constructed from as few policy rollouts as possible. In experiments we evaluate policies for visuomotor manipulation in both simulation and hardware. Specifically, we (i) empirically validate the guarantees of the bounds in simulated manipulation settings, (ii) find the degree to which a learned policy deployed on hardware generalizes to new real-world environments, and (iii) rigorously compare two policies tested in out-of-distribution settings. Our experimental data, code, and implementation of confidence bounds are open-source.

Explore until Confident: Efficient Exploration for Embodied Question Answering

We consider the problem of Embodied Question Answering (EQA), which refers to settings where an embodied agent such as a robot needs to actively explore an environment to gather information until it is confident about the answer to a question. In this work, we leverage the strong semantic reasoning capabilities of large vision-language models (VLMs) to efficiently explore and answer such questions. However, there are two main challenges when using VLMs in EQA: they do not have an internal memory for mapping the scene to be able to plan how to explore over time, and their confidence can be miscalibrated and can cause the robot to prematurely stop exploration or over-explore. We propose a method that first builds a semantic map of the scene based on depth information and via visual prompting of a VLM - leveraging its vast knowledge of relevant regions of the scene for exploration. Next, we use conformal prediction to calibrate the VLM's question answering confidence, allowing the robot to know when to stop exploration - leading to a more calibrated and efficient exploration strategy. To test our framework in simulation, we also contribute a new EQA dataset with diverse, realistic human-robot scenarios and scenes built upon the Habitat-Matterport 3D Research Dataset (HM3D). Both simulated and real robot experiments show our proposed approach improves the performance and efficiency over baselines that do no leverage VLM for exploration or do not calibrate its confidence. Webpage with experiment videos and code: https://explore-eqa.github.io/

DROID: A Large-Scale In-The-Wild Robot Manipulation Dataset

The creation of large, diverse, high-quality robot manipulation datasets is an important stepping stone on the path toward more capable and robust robotic manipulation policies. However, creating such datasets is challenging: collecting robot manipulation data in diverse environments poses logistical and safety challenges and requires substantial investments in hardware and human labour. As a result, even the most general robot manipulation policies today are mostly trained on data collected in a small number of environments with limited scene and task diversity. In this work, we introduce DROID (Distributed Robot Interaction Dataset), a diverse robot manipulation dataset with 76k demonstration trajectories or 350 hours of interaction data, collected across 564 scenes and 84 tasks by 50 data collectors in North America, Asia, and Europe over the course of 12 months. We demonstrate that training with DROID leads to policies with higher performance and improved generalization ability. We open source the full dataset, policy learning code, and a detailed guide for reproducing our robot hardware setup.

Interpretable Self-Aware Neural Networks for Robust Trajectory Prediction

Although neural networks have seen tremendous success as predictive models in a variety of domains, they can be overly confident in their predictions on out-of-distribution (OOD) data. To be viable for safety-critical applications, like autonomous vehicles, neural networks must accurately estimate their epistemic or model uncertainty, achieving a level of system self-awareness. Techniques for epistemic uncertainty quantification often require OOD data during training or multiple neural network forward passes during inference. These approaches may not be suitable for real-time performance on high-dimensional inputs. Furthermore, existing methods lack interpretability of the estimated uncertainty, which limits their usefulness both to engineers for further system development and to downstream modules in the autonomy stack. We propose the use of evidential deep learning to estimate the epistemic uncertainty over a low-dimensional, interpretable latent space in a trajectory prediction setting. We introduce an interpretable paradigm for trajectory prediction that distributes the uncertainty among the semantic concepts: past agent behavior, road structure, and social context. We validate our approach on real-world autonomous driving data, demonstrating superior performance over state-of-the-art baselines. Our code is available at: https://github.com/sisl/InterpretableSelfAwarePrediction.

LOPR: Latent Occupancy PRediction using Generative Models

Environment prediction frameworks are essential for autonomous vehicles to facilitate safe maneuvers in a dynamic environment. Previous approaches have used occupancy grid maps as a bird's eye-view representation of the scene and optimized the prediction architectures directly in pixel space. Although these methods have had some success in spatiotemporal prediction, they are, at times, hindered by unrealistic and incorrect predictions. We postulate that the quality and realism of the forecasted occupancy grids can be improved with the use of generative models. We propose a framework that decomposes occupancy grid prediction into task-independent low-dimensional representation learning and task-dependent prediction in the latent space. We demonstrate that our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance on the real-world autonomous driving dataset, NuScenes.

Occlusion-Aware Crowd Navigation Using People as Sensors

Autonomous navigation in crowded spaces poses a challenge for mobile robots due to the highly dynamic, partially observable environment. Occlusions are highly prevalent in such settings due to a limited sensor field of view and obstructing human agents. Previous work has shown that observed interactive behaviors of human agents can be used to estimate potential obstacles despite occlusions. We propose integrating such social inference techniques into the planning pipeline. We use a variational autoencoder with a specially designed loss function to learn representations that are meaningful for occlusion inference. This work adopts a deep reinforcement learning approach to incorporate the learned representation for occlusion-aware planning. In simulation, our occlusion-aware policy achieves comparable collision avoidance performance to fully observable navigation by estimating agents in occluded spaces. We demonstrate successful policy transfer from simulation to the real-world Turtlebot 2i. To the best of our knowledge, this work is the first to use social occlusion inference for crowd navigation.