Statistical Tractability of Off-policy Evaluation of History-dependent Policies in POMDPs

We investigate off-policy evaluation (OPE), a central and fundamental problem in reinforcement learning (RL), in the challenging setting of Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) with large observation spaces. Recent works of Uehara et al. (2023a); Zhang & Jiang (2024) developed a model-free framework and identified important coverage assumptions (called belief and outcome coverage) that enable accurate OPE of memoryless policies with polynomial sample complexities, but handling more general target policies that depend on the entire observable history remained an open problem. In this work, we prove information-theoretic hardness for model-free OPE of history-dependent policies in several settings, characterized by additional assumptions imposed on the behavior policy (memoryless vs. history-dependent) and/or the state-revealing property of the POMDP (single-step vs. multi-step revealing). We further show that some hardness can be circumvented by a natural model-based algorithm -- whose analysis has surprisingly eluded the literature despite the algorithm's simplicity -- demonstrating provable separation between model-free and model-based OPE in POMDPs.

Improving LLM General Preference Alignment via Optimistic Online Mirror Descent

Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) has demonstrated remarkable effectiveness in aligning large language models (LLMs) with human preferences. Many existing alignment approaches rely on the Bradley-Terry (BT) model assumption, which assumes the existence of a ground-truth reward for each prompt-response pair. However, this assumption can be overly restrictive when modeling complex human preferences. In this paper, we drop the BT model assumption and study LLM alignment under general preferences, formulated as a two-player game. Drawing on theoretical insights from learning in games, we integrate optimistic online mirror descent into our alignment framework to approximate the Nash policy. Theoretically, we demonstrate that our approach achieves an $O(T^{-1})$ bound on the duality gap, improving upon the previous $O(T^{-1/2})$ result. More importantly, we implement our method and show through experiments that it outperforms state-of-the-art RLHF algorithms across multiple representative benchmarks.

Teaching LLMs to Refine with Tools

Large language models (LLMs) can refine their responses based on feedback, enabling self-improvement through iterative training or test-time refinement. However, existing methods predominantly focus on refinement within the same reasoning format, which may lead to non-correcting behaviors. We propose CaP, a novel approach that uses external tools to refine chain-of-thought (CoT) responses generated by the same or other LLMs. CaP employs a two-stage training process: supervised fine-tuning followed by preference optimization with DPO variants. Our observations highlight the critical role of preference optimization in enabling effective refinement. Additionally, we compare several sampling strategies to leverage CoT and tools at inference time. Experimental results demonstrate CaP's potential for effective cross-reasoning refinement and efficient inference.

Noise Matters: Diffusion Model-based Urban Mobility Generation with Collaborative Noise Priors

With global urbanization, the focus on sustainable cities has largely grown, driving research into equity, resilience, and urban planning, which often relies on mobility data. The rise of web-based apps and mobile devices has provided valuable user data for mobility-related research. However, real-world mobility data is costly and raises privacy concerns. To protect privacy while retaining key features of real-world movement, the demand for synthetic data has steadily increased. Recent advances in diffusion models have shown great potential for mobility trajectory generation due to their ability to model randomness and uncertainty. However, existing approaches often directly apply identically distributed (i.i.d.) noise sampling from image generation techniques, which fail to account for the spatiotemporal correlations and social interactions that shape urban mobility patterns. In this paper, we propose CoDiffMob, a diffusion method for urban mobility generation with collaborative noise priors, we emphasize the critical role of noise in diffusion models for generating mobility data. By leveraging both individual movement characteristics and population-wide dynamics, we construct novel collaborative noise priors that provide richer and more informative guidance throughout the generation process. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of our method, with generated data accurately capturing both individual preferences and collective patterns, achieving an improvement of over 32\%. Furthermore, it can effectively replace web-derived mobility data to better support downstream applications, while safeguarding user privacy and fostering a more secure and ethical web. This highlights its tremendous potential for applications in sustainable city-related research.

Understanding World or Predicting Future? A Comprehensive Survey of World Models

The concept of world models has garnered significant attention due to advancements in multimodal large language models such as GPT-4 and video generation models such as Sora, which are central to the pursuit of artificial general intelligence. This survey offers a comprehensive review of the literature on world models. Generally, world models are regarded as tools for either understanding the present state of the world or predicting its future dynamics. This review presents a systematic categorization of world models, emphasizing two primary functions: (1) constructing internal representations to understand the mechanisms of the world, and (2) predicting future states to simulate and guide decision-making. Initially, we examine the current progress in these two categories. We then explore the application of world models in key domains, including autonomous driving, robotics, and social simulacra, with a focus on how each domain utilizes these aspects. Finally, we outline key challenges and provide insights into potential future research directions.

Iterative Nash Policy Optimization: Aligning LLMs with General Preferences via No-Regret Learning

Reinforcement Learning with Human Feedback (RLHF) has achieved great success in aligning large language models (LLMs) with human preferences. Prevalent RLHF approaches are reward-based, following the Bradley-Terry (BT) model assumption, which may not fully capture the complexity of human preferences. In this paper, we explore RLHF under a general preference framework and approach it from a game-theoretic perspective. Specifically, we formulate the problem as a two-player game and propose a novel algorithm, iterative Nash policy optimization (INPO). The key idea is to let the policy play against itself via no-regret learning, thereby approximating the Nash policy. Unlike previous methods, INPO bypasses the need for estimating the expected win rate for individual responses, which typically incurs high computational or annotation costs. Instead, we introduce a new loss objective that is directly minimized over a preference dataset. We provide theoretical analysis for our approach and demonstrate its effectiveness through experiments on various representative benchmarks. With an LLaMA-3-8B-based SFT model, INPO achieves a 41.5% length-controlled win rate on AlpacaEval 2.0 and a 38.3% win rate on Arena-Hard, showing substantial improvement over the state-of-the-art iterative algorithm [Dong et al., 2024] under the BT model assumption. Additionally, our ablation study highlights the benefits of incorporating KL regularization for response length control.

LCSim: A Large-Scale Controllable Traffic Simulator

With the rapid development of urban transportation and the continuous advancement in autonomous vehicles, the demand for safely and efficiently testing autonomous driving and traffic optimization algorithms arises, which needs accurate modeling of large-scale urban traffic scenarios. Existing traffic simulation systems encounter two significant limitations. Firstly, they often rely on open-source datasets or manually crafted maps, constraining the scale of simulations. Secondly, vehicle models within these systems tend to be either oversimplified or lack controllability, compromising the authenticity and diversity of the simulations. In this paper, we propose LCSim, a large-scale controllable traffic simulator. LCSim provides map tools for constructing unified high-definition map (HD map) descriptions from open-source datasets including Waymo and Argoverse or publicly available data sources like OpenStreetMap to scale up the simulation scenarios. Also, we integrate diffusion-based traffic simulation into the simulator for realistic and controllable microscopic traffic flow modeling. By leveraging these features, LCSim provides realistic and diverse virtual traffic environments. Code and Demos are available at https://github.com/tsinghua-fib-lab/LCSim.

Provably Efficient Interactive-Grounded Learning with Personalized Reward

Interactive-Grounded Learning (IGL) [Xie et al., 2021] is a powerful framework in which a learner aims at maximizing unobservable rewards through interacting with an environment and observing reward-dependent feedback on the taken actions. To deal with personalized rewards that are ubiquitous in applications such as recommendation systems, Maghakian et al. [2022] study a version of IGL with context-dependent feedback, but their algorithm does not come with theoretical guarantees. In this work, we consider the same problem and provide the first provably efficient algorithms with sublinear regret under realizability. Our analysis reveals that the step-function estimator of prior work can deviate uncontrollably due to finite-sample effects. Our solution is a novel Lipschitz reward estimator which underestimates the true reward and enjoys favorable generalization performances. Building on this estimator, we propose two algorithms, one based on explore-then-exploit and the other based on inverse-gap weighting. We apply IGL to learning from image feedback and learning from text feedback, which are reward-free settings that arise in practice. Experimental results showcase the importance of using our Lipschitz reward estimator and the overall effectiveness of our algorithms.

On the Curses of Future and History in Future-dependent Value Functions for Off-policy Evaluation

We study off-policy evaluation (OPE) in partially observable environments with complex observations, with the goal of developing estimators whose guarantee avoids exponential dependence on the horizon. While such estimators exist for MDPs and POMDPs can be converted to history-based MDPs, their estimation errors depend on the state-density ratio for MDPs which becomes history ratios after conversion, an exponential object. Recently, Uehara et al. (2022) proposed future-dependent value functions as a promising framework to address this issue, where the guarantee for memoryless policies depends on the density ratio over the latent state space. However, it also depends on the boundedness of the future-dependent value function and other related quantities, which we show could be exponential-in-length and thus erasing the advantage of the method. In this paper, we discover novel coverage assumptions tailored to the structure of POMDPs, such as outcome coverage and belief coverage. These assumptions not only enable polynomial bounds on the aforementioned quantities, but also lead to the discovery of new algorithms with complementary properties.

Efficient Contextual Bandits with Uninformed Feedback Graphs

Bandits with feedback graphs are powerful online learning models that interpolate between the full information and classic bandit problems, capturing many real-life applications. A recent work by Zhang et al. (2023) studies the contextual version of this problem and proposes an efficient and optimal algorithm via a reduction to online regression. However, their algorithm crucially relies on seeing the feedback graph before making each decision, while in many applications, the feedback graph is uninformed, meaning that it is either only revealed after the learner makes her decision or even never fully revealed at all. This work develops the first contextual algorithm for such uninformed settings, via an efficient reduction to online regression over both the losses and the graphs. Importantly, we show that it is critical to learn the graphs using log loss instead of squared loss to obtain favorable regret guarantees. We also demonstrate the empirical effectiveness of our algorithm on a bidding application using both synthetic and real-world data.