Assessing SAM for Tree Crown Instance Segmentation from Drone Imagery

The potential of tree planting as a natural climate solution is often undermined by inadequate monitoring of tree planting projects. Current monitoring methods involve measuring trees by hand for each species, requiring extensive cost, time, and labour. Advances in drone remote sensing and computer vision offer great potential for mapping and characterizing trees from aerial imagery, and large pre-trained vision models, such as the Segment Anything Model (SAM), may be a particularly compelling choice given limited labeled data. In this work, we compare SAM methods for the task of automatic tree crown instance segmentation in high resolution drone imagery of young tree plantations. We explore the potential of SAM for this task, and find that methods using SAM out-of-the-box do not outperform a custom Mask R-CNN, even with well-designed prompts, but that there is potential for methods which tune SAM further. We also show that predictions can be improved by adding Digital Surface Model (DSM) information as an input.

A scalable gene network model of regulatory dynamics in single cells

Single-cell data provide high-dimensional measurements of the transcriptional states of cells, but extracting insights into the regulatory functions of genes, particularly identifying transcriptional mechanisms affected by biological perturbations, remains a challenge. Many perturbations induce compensatory cellular responses, making it difficult to distinguish direct from indirect effects on gene regulation. Modeling how gene regulatory functions shape the temporal dynamics of these responses is key to improving our understanding of biological perturbations. Dynamical models based on differential equations offer a principled way to capture transcriptional dynamics, but their application to single-cell data has been hindered by computational constraints, stochasticity, sparsity, and noise. Existing methods either rely on low-dimensional representations or make strong simplifying assumptions, limiting their ability to model transcriptional dynamics at scale. We introduce a Functional and Learnable model of Cell dynamicS, FLeCS, that incorporates gene network structure into coupled differential equations to model gene regulatory functions. Given (pseudo)time-series single-cell data, FLeCS accurately infers cell dynamics at scale, provides improved functional insights into transcriptional mechanisms perturbed by gene knockouts, both in myeloid differentiation and K562 Perturb-seq experiments, and simulates single-cell trajectories of A549 cells following small-molecule perturbations.

Extendable Long-Horizon Planning via Hierarchical Multiscale Diffusion

This paper tackles a novel problem, extendable long-horizon planning-enabling agents to plan trajectories longer than those in training data without compounding errors. To tackle this, we propose the Hierarchical Multiscale Diffuser (HM-Diffuser) and Progressive Trajectory Extension (PTE), an augmentation method that iteratively generates longer trajectories by stitching shorter ones. HM-Diffuser trains on these extended trajectories using a hierarchical structure, efficiently handling tasks across multiple temporal scales. Additionally, we introduce Adaptive Plan Pondering and the Recursive HM-Diffuser, which consolidate hierarchical layers into a single model to process temporal scales recursively. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, advancing diffusion-based planners for scalable long-horizon planning.

Trajectory Balance with Asynchrony: Decoupling Exploration and Learning for Fast, Scalable LLM Post-Training

Reinforcement learning (RL) is a critical component of large language model (LLM) post-training. However, existing on-policy algorithms used for post-training are inherently incompatible with the use of experience replay buffers, which can be populated scalably by distributed off-policy actors to enhance exploration as compute increases. We propose efficiently obtaining this benefit of replay buffers via Trajectory Balance with Asynchrony (TBA), a massively scalable LLM RL system. In contrast to existing approaches, TBA uses a larger fraction of compute on search, constantly generating off-policy data for a central replay buffer. A training node simultaneously samples data from this buffer based on reward or recency to update the policy using Trajectory Balance (TB), a diversity-seeking RL objective introduced for GFlowNets. TBA offers three key advantages: (1) decoupled training and search, speeding up training wall-clock time by 4x or more; (2) improved diversity through large-scale off-policy sampling; and (3) scalable search for sparse reward settings. On mathematical reasoning, preference-tuning, and automated red-teaming (diverse and representative post-training tasks), TBA produces speed and performance improvements over strong baselines.

Offline Model-Based Optimization: Comprehensive Review

Offline optimization is a fundamental challenge in science and engineering, where the goal is to optimize black-box functions using only offline datasets. This setting is particularly relevant when querying the objective function is prohibitively expensive or infeasible, with applications spanning protein engineering, material discovery, neural architecture search, and beyond. The main difficulty lies in accurately estimating the objective landscape beyond the available data, where extrapolations are fraught with significant epistemic uncertainty. This uncertainty can lead to objective hacking(reward hacking), exploiting model inaccuracies in unseen regions, or other spurious optimizations that yield misleadingly high performance estimates outside the training distribution. Recent advances in model-based optimization(MBO) have harnessed the generalization capabilities of deep neural networks to develop offline-specific surrogate and generative models. Trained with carefully designed strategies, these models are more robust against out-of-distribution issues, facilitating the discovery of improved designs. Despite its growing impact in accelerating scientific discovery, the field lacks a comprehensive review. To bridge this gap, we present the first thorough review of offline MBO. We begin by formalizing the problem for both single-objective and multi-objective settings and by reviewing recent benchmarks and evaluation metrics. We then categorize existing approaches into two key areas: surrogate modeling, which emphasizes accurate function approximation in out-of-distribution regions, and generative modeling, which explores high-dimensional design spaces to identify high-performing designs. Finally, we examine the key challenges and propose promising directions for advancement in this rapidly evolving field including safe control of superintelligent systems.

Solving Bayesian inverse problems with diffusion priors and off-policy RL

This paper presents a practical application of Relative Trajectory Balance (RTB), a recently introduced off-policy reinforcement learning (RL) objective that can asymptotically solve Bayesian inverse problems optimally. We extend the original work by using RTB to train conditional diffusion model posteriors from pretrained unconditional priors for challenging linear and non-linear inverse problems in vision, and science. We use the objective alongside techniques such as off-policy backtracking exploration to improve training. Importantly, our results show that existing training-free diffusion posterior methods struggle to perform effective posterior inference in latent space due to inherent biases.

Learning Decision Trees as Amortized Structure Inference

Building predictive models for tabular data presents fundamental challenges, notably in scaling consistently, i.e., more resources translating to better performance, and generalizing systematically beyond the training data distribution. Designing decision tree models remains especially challenging given the intractably large search space, and most existing methods rely on greedy heuristics, while deep learning inductive biases expect a temporal or spatial structure not naturally present in tabular data. We propose a hybrid amortized structure inference approach to learn predictive decision tree ensembles given data, formulating decision tree construction as a sequential planning problem. We train a deep reinforcement learning (GFlowNet) policy to solve this problem, yielding a generative model that samples decision trees from the Bayesian posterior. We show that our approach, DT-GFN, outperforms state-of-the-art decision tree and deep learning methods on standard classification benchmarks derived from real-world data, robustness to distribution shifts, and anomaly detection, all while yielding interpretable models with shorter description lengths. Samples from the trained DT-GFN model can be ensembled to construct a random forest, and we further show that the performance of scales consistently in ensemble size, yielding ensembles of predictors that continue to generalize systematically.

Superintelligent Agents Pose Catastrophic Risks: Can Scientist AI Offer a Safer Path?

The leading AI companies are increasingly focused on building generalist AI agents -- systems that can autonomously plan, act, and pursue goals across almost all tasks that humans can perform. Despite how useful these systems might be, unchecked AI agency poses significant risks to public safety and security, ranging from misuse by malicious actors to a potentially irreversible loss of human control. We discuss how these risks arise from current AI training methods. Indeed, various scenarios and experiments have demonstrated the possibility of AI agents engaging in deception or pursuing goals that were not specified by human operators and that conflict with human interests, such as self-preservation. Following the precautionary principle, we see a strong need for safer, yet still useful, alternatives to the current agency-driven trajectory. Accordingly, we propose as a core building block for further advances the development of a non-agentic AI system that is trustworthy and safe by design, which we call Scientist AI. This system is designed to explain the world from observations, as opposed to taking actions in it to imitate or please humans. It comprises a world model that generates theories to explain data and a question-answering inference machine. Both components operate with an explicit notion of uncertainty to mitigate the risks of overconfident predictions. In light of these considerations, a Scientist AI could be used to assist human researchers in accelerating scientific progress, including in AI safety. In particular, our system can be employed as a guardrail against AI agents that might be created despite the risks involved. Ultimately, focusing on non-agentic AI may enable the benefits of AI innovation while avoiding the risks associated with the current trajectory. We hope these arguments will motivate researchers, developers, and policymakers to favor this safer path.

OBELiX: A Curated Dataset of Crystal Structures and Experimentally Measured Ionic Conductivities for Lithium Solid-State Electrolytes

Solid-state electrolyte batteries are expected to replace liquid electrolyte lithium-ion batteries in the near future thanks to their higher theoretical energy density and improved safety. However, their adoption is currently hindered by their lower effective ionic conductivity, a quantity that governs charge and discharge rates. Identifying highly ion-conductive materials using conventional theoretical calculations and experimental validation is both time-consuming and resource-intensive. While machine learning holds the promise to expedite this process, relevant ionic conductivity and structural data is scarce. Here, we present OBELiX, a domain-expert-curated database of $\sim$600 synthesized solid electrolyte materials and their experimentally measured room temperature ionic conductivities gathered from literature. Each material is described by their measured composition, space group and lattice parameters. A full-crystal description in the form of a crystallographic information file (CIF) is provided for ~320 structures for which atomic positions were available. We discuss various statistics and features of the dataset and provide training and testing splits that avoid data leakage. Finally, we benchmark seven existing ML models on the task of predicting ionic conductivity and discuss their performance. The goal of this work is to facilitate the use of machine learning for solid-state electrolyte materials discovery.

In-Context Parametric Inference: Point or Distribution Estimators?

Bayesian and frequentist inference are two fundamental paradigms in statistical estimation. Bayesian methods treat hypotheses as random variables, incorporating priors and updating beliefs via Bayes' theorem, whereas frequentist methods assume fixed but unknown hypotheses, relying on estimators like maximum likelihood. While extensive research has compared these approaches, the frequentist paradigm of obtaining point estimates has become predominant in deep learning, as Bayesian inference is challenging due to the computational complexity and the approximation gap of posterior estimation methods. However, a good understanding of trade-offs between the two approaches is lacking in the regime of amortized estimators, where in-context learners are trained to estimate either point values via maximum likelihood or maximum a posteriori estimation, or full posteriors using normalizing flows, score-based diffusion samplers, or diagonal Gaussian approximations, conditioned on observations. To help resolve this, we conduct a rigorous comparative analysis spanning diverse problem settings, from linear models to shallow neural networks, with a robust evaluation framework assessing both in-distribution and out-of-distribution generalization on tractable tasks. Our experiments indicate that amortized point estimators generally outperform posterior inference, though the latter remain competitive in some low-dimensional problems, and we further discuss why this might be the case.