Benchmarking Distributional Alignment of Large Language Models

Language models (LMs) are increasingly used as simulacra for people, yet their ability to match the distribution of views of a specific demographic group and be \textit{distributionally aligned} remains uncertain. This notion of distributional alignment is complex, as there is significant variation in the types of attributes that are simulated. Prior works have underexplored the role of three critical variables -- the question domain, steering method, and distribution expression method -- which motivates our contribution of a benchmark explicitly addressing these dimensions. We construct a dataset expanding beyond political values, create human baselines for this task, and evaluate the extent to which an LM can align with a particular group's opinion distribution to inform design choices of such simulation systems. Our analysis reveals open problems regarding if, and how, LMs can be used to simulate humans, and that LLMs can more accurately describe the opinion distribution than simulate such distributions.

Graph-based Uncertainty Metrics for Long-form Language Model Outputs

Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have significantly improved text generation capabilities, but these systems are still known to hallucinate, and granular uncertainty estimation for long-form LLM generations remains challenging. In this work, we propose Graph Uncertainty -- which represents the relationship between LLM generations and claims within them as a bipartite graph and estimates the claim-level uncertainty with a family of graph centrality metrics. Under this view, existing uncertainty estimation methods based on the concept of self-consistency can be viewed as using degree centrality as an uncertainty measure, and we show that more sophisticated alternatives such as closeness centrality provide consistent gains at claim-level uncertainty estimation. Moreover, we present uncertainty-aware decoding techniques that leverage both the graph structure and uncertainty estimates to improve the factuality of LLM generations by preserving only the most reliable claims. Compared to existing methods, our graph-based uncertainty metrics lead to an average of 6.8% relative gains on AUPRC across various long-form generation settings, and our end-to-end system provides consistent 2-4% gains in factuality over existing decoding techniques while significantly improving the informativeness of generated responses.

Locality Alignment Improves Vision-Language Models

Vision language models (VLMs) have seen growing adoption in recent years, but many still struggle with basic spatial reasoning errors. We hypothesize that this is due to VLMs adopting pre-trained vision backbones, specifically vision transformers (ViTs) trained with image-level supervision and minimal inductive biases. Such models may fail to encode the class contents at each position in the image, and our goal is to resolve this by ensuring that the vision backbone effectively captures both local and global image semantics. Our main insight is that we do not require new supervision to learn this capability -- pre-trained models contain significant knowledge of local semantics that we can extract and use for scalable self-supervision. We propose a new efficient post-training stage for ViTs called locality alignment and a novel fine-tuning procedure called MaskEmbed that uses a masked reconstruction loss to learn semantic contributions for each image patch. We first evaluate locality alignment with a vision-only benchmark, finding that it improves a model's performance at a patch-level semantic segmentation task, especially for strong backbones trained with image-caption pairs (e.g., CLIP and SigLIP). We then train a series of VLMs with and without locality alignment, and show that locality-aligned backbones improve performance across a range of benchmarks, particularly ones that involve spatial understanding (e.g., RefCOCO, OCID-Ref, TallyQA, VSR, AI2D). Overall, we demonstrate that we can efficiently learn local semantic extraction via a locality alignment stage, and that this procedure complements existing VLM training recipes that use off-the-shelf vision backbones.

Synthetic continued pretraining

Pretraining on large-scale, unstructured internet text has enabled language models to acquire a significant amount of world knowledge. However, this knowledge acquisition is data-inefficient -- to learn a given fact, models must be trained on hundreds to thousands of diverse representations of it. This poses a challenge when adapting a pretrained model to a small corpus of domain-specific documents, where each fact may appear rarely or only once. We propose to bridge this gap with synthetic continued pretraining: using the small domain-specific corpus to synthesize a large corpus more amenable to learning, and then performing continued pretraining on the synthesized corpus. We instantiate this proposal with EntiGraph, a synthetic data augmentation algorithm that extracts salient entities from the source documents and then generates diverse text by drawing connections between the sampled entities. Synthetic continued pretraining using EntiGraph enables a language model to answer questions and follow generic instructions related to the source documents without access to them. If instead, the source documents are available at inference time, we show that the knowledge acquired through our approach compounds with retrieval-augmented generation. To better understand these results, we build a simple mathematical model of EntiGraph, and show how synthetic data augmentation can "rearrange" knowledge to enable more data-efficient learning.

Improving Pretraining Data Using Perplexity Correlations

Quality pretraining data is often seen as the key to high-performance language models. However, progress in understanding pretraining data has been slow due to the costly pretraining runs required for data selection experiments. We present a framework that avoids these costs and selects high-quality pretraining data without any LLM training of our own. Our work is based on a simple observation: LLM losses on many pretraining texts are correlated with downstream benchmark performance, and selecting high-correlation documents is an effective pretraining data selection method. We build a new statistical framework for data selection centered around estimates of perplexity-benchmark correlations and perform data selection using a sample of 90 LLMs taken from the Open LLM Leaderboard on texts from tens of thousands of web domains. In controlled pretraining experiments at the 160M parameter scale on 8 benchmarks, our approach outperforms DSIR on every benchmark, while matching the best data selector found in DataComp-LM, a hand-engineered bigram classifier.

Can LLMs Generate Novel Research Ideas? A Large-Scale Human Study with 100+ NLP Researchers

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have sparked optimism about their potential to accelerate scientific discovery, with a growing number of works proposing research agents that autonomously generate and validate new ideas. Despite this, no evaluations have shown that LLM systems can take the very first step of producing novel, expert-level ideas, let alone perform the entire research process. We address this by establishing an experimental design that evaluates research idea generation while controlling for confounders and performs the first head-to-head comparison between expert NLP researchers and an LLM ideation agent. By recruiting over 100 NLP researchers to write novel ideas and blind reviews of both LLM and human ideas, we obtain the first statistically significant conclusion on current LLM capabilities for research ideation: we find LLM-generated ideas are judged as more novel (p < 0.05) than human expert ideas while being judged slightly weaker on feasibility. Studying our agent baselines closely, we identify open problems in building and evaluating research agents, including failures of LLM self-evaluation and their lack of diversity in generation. Finally, we acknowledge that human judgements of novelty can be difficult, even by experts, and propose an end-to-end study design which recruits researchers to execute these ideas into full projects, enabling us to study whether these novelty and feasibility judgements result in meaningful differences in research outcome.

AutoBencher: Creating Salient, Novel, Difficult Datasets for Language Models

Evaluation is critical for assessing capabilities, tracking scientific progress, and informing model selection. In this paper, we present three desiderata for a good benchmark for language models: (i) salience (e.g., knowledge about World War II is more salient than a random day in history), (ii) novelty (i.e., the benchmark reveals new trends in model rankings not shown by previous benchmarks), and (iii) difficulty (i.e., the benchmark should be difficult for existing models, leaving headroom for future improvement). We operationalize these three desiderata and cast benchmark creation as a search problem, that of finding benchmarks that that satisfy all three desiderata. To tackle this search problem, we present AutoBencher, which uses a language model to automatically search for datasets that meet the three desiderata. AutoBencher uses privileged information (e.g. relevant documents) to construct reliable datasets, and adaptivity with reranking to optimize for the search objective. We use AutoBencher to create datasets for math, multilingual, and knowledge-intensive question answering. The scalability of AutoBencher allows it to test fine-grained categories and tail knowledge, creating datasets that are on average 27% more novel and 22% more difficult than existing benchmarks. A closer investigation of our constructed datasets shows that we can identify specific gaps in LM knowledge in language models that are not captured by existing benchmarks, such as Gemini Pro performing much worse on question answering about the Permian Extinction and Fordism, while OpenAGI-7B performing surprisingly well on QA about COVID-19.

Learning to (Learn at Test Time): RNNs with Expressive Hidden States

Self-attention performs well in long context but has quadratic complexity. Existing RNN layers have linear complexity, but their performance in long context is limited by the expressive power of their hidden state. We propose a new class of sequence modeling layers with linear complexity and an expressive hidden state. The key idea is to make the hidden state a machine learning model itself, and the update rule a step of self-supervised learning. Since the hidden state is updated by training even on test sequences, our layers are called Test-Time Training (TTT) layers. We consider two instantiations: TTT-Linear and TTT-MLP, whose hidden state is a linear model and a two-layer MLP respectively. We evaluate our instantiations at the scale of 125M to 1.3B parameters, comparing with a strong Transformer and Mamba, a modern RNN. Both TTT-Linear and TTT-MLP match or exceed the baselines. Similar to Transformer, they can keep reducing perplexity by conditioning on more tokens, while Mamba cannot after 16k context. With preliminary systems optimization, TTT-Linear is already faster than Transformer at 8k context and matches Mamba in wall-clock time. TTT-MLP still faces challenges in memory I/O, but shows larger potential in long context, pointing to a promising direction for future research.

Scaling Laws for the Value of Individual Data Points in Machine Learning

Recent works have shown that machine learning models improve at a predictable rate with the total amount of training data, leading to scaling laws that describe the relationship between error and dataset size. These scaling laws can help design a model's training dataset, but they typically take an aggregate view of the data by only considering the dataset's size. We introduce a new perspective by investigating scaling behavior for the value of individual data points: we find that a data point's contribution to model's performance shrinks predictably with the size of the dataset in a log-linear manner. Interestingly, there is significant variability in the scaling exponent among different data points, indicating that certain points are more valuable in small datasets while others are relatively more useful as a part of large datasets. We provide learning theory to support our scaling law, and we observe empirically that it holds across diverse model classes. We further propose a maximum likelihood estimator and an amortized estimator to efficiently learn the individualized scaling behaviors from a small number of noisy observations per data point. Using our estimators, we provide insights into factors that influence the scaling behavior of different data points. Finally, we demonstrate applications of the individualized scaling laws to data valuation and data subset selection. Overall, our work represents a first step towards understanding and utilizing scaling properties for the value of individual data points.

Observational Scaling Laws and the Predictability of Language Model Performance

Understanding how language model performance varies with scale is critical to benchmark and algorithm development. Scaling laws are one approach to building this understanding, but the requirement of training models across many different scales has limited their use. We propose an alternative, observational approach that bypasses model training and instead builds scaling laws from ~80 publically available models. Building a single scaling law from multiple model families is challenging due to large variations in their training compute efficiencies and capabilities. However, we show that these variations are consistent with a simple, generalized scaling law where language model performance is a function of a low-dimensional capability space, and model families only vary in their efficiency in converting training compute to capabilities. Using this approach, we show the surprising predictability of complex scaling phenomena: we show that several emergent phenomena follow a smooth, sigmoidal behavior and are predictable from small models; we show that the agent performance of models such as GPT-4 can be precisely predicted from simpler non-agentic benchmarks; and we show how to predict the impact of post-training interventions like Chain-of-Thought and Self-Consistency as language model capabilities continue to improve.