What Do Learning Dynamics Reveal About Generalization in LLM Reasoning?

Despite the remarkable capabilities of modern large language models (LLMs), the mechanisms behind their problem-solving abilities remain elusive. In this work, we aim to better understand how the learning dynamics of LLM finetuning shapes downstream generalization. Our analysis focuses on reasoning tasks, whose problem structure allows us to distinguish between memorization (the exact replication of reasoning steps from the training data) and performance (the correctness of the final solution). We find that a model's generalization behavior can be effectively characterized by a training metric we call pre-memorization train accuracy: the accuracy of model samples on training queries before they begin to copy the exact reasoning steps from the training set. On the dataset level, this metric is able to reliably predict test accuracy, achieving $R^2$ of around or exceeding 0.9 across various models (Llama3 8, Gemma2 9B), datasets (GSM8k, MATH), and training configurations. On a per-example level, this metric is also indicative of whether individual model predictions are robust to perturbations in the training query. By connecting a model's learning behavior to its generalization, pre-memorization train accuracy can guide targeted improvements to training strategies. We focus on data curation as an example, and show that prioritizing examples with low pre-memorization accuracy leads to 1.5-2x improvements in data efficiency compared to i.i.d. data scaling, and outperforms other standard data curation techniques.

VibeCheck: Discover and Quantify Qualitative Differences in Large Language Models

Large language models (LLMs) often exhibit subtle yet distinctive characteristics in their outputs that users intuitively recognize, but struggle to quantify. These "vibes" - such as tone, formatting, or writing style - influence user preferences, yet traditional evaluations focus primarily on the single axis of correctness. We introduce VibeCheck, a system for automatically comparing a pair of LLMs by discovering identifying traits of a model ("vibes") that are well-defined, differentiating, and user-aligned. VibeCheck iteratively discover vibes from model outputs, then utilizes a panel of LLM judges to quantitatively measure the utility of each vibe. We validate that the vibes generated by VibeCheck align with those found in human discovery and run VibeCheck on pairwise preference data from real-world user conversations with llama-3-70b VS GPT-4. VibeCheck reveals that Llama has a friendly, funny, and somewhat controversial vibe. These vibes predict model identity with 80% accuracy and human preference with 61% accuracy. Lastly, we run VibeCheck on a variety of models and tasks including summarization, math, and captioning to provide insight into differences in model behavior. Some of the vibes we find are that Command X prefers to add concrete intros and conclusions when summarizing in comparison to TNGL, Llama-405b often over-explains its thought process on math problems compared to GPT-4o, and GPT-4 prefers to focus on the mood and emotions of the scene when captioning compared to Gemini-1.5-Flash.

Explaining Datasets in Words: Statistical Models with Natural Language Parameters

To make sense of massive data, we often fit simplified models and then interpret the parameters; for example, we cluster the text embeddings and then interpret the mean parameters of each cluster. However, these parameters are often high-dimensional and hard to interpret. To make model parameters directly interpretable, we introduce a family of statistical models -- including clustering, time series, and classification models -- parameterized by natural language predicates. For example, a cluster of text about COVID could be parameterized by the predicate "discusses COVID". To learn these statistical models effectively, we develop a model-agnostic algorithm that optimizes continuous relaxations of predicate parameters with gradient descent and discretizes them by prompting language models (LMs). Finally, we apply our framework to a wide range of problems: taxonomizing user chat dialogues, characterizing how they evolve across time, finding categories where one language model is better than the other, clustering math problems based on subareas, and explaining visual features in memorable images. Our framework is highly versatile, applicable to both textual and visual domains, can be easily steered to focus on specific properties (e.g. subareas), and explains sophisticated concepts that classical methods (e.g. n-gram analysis) struggle to produce.

Safety vs. Performance: How Multi-Objective Learning Reduces Barriers to Market Entry

Emerging marketplaces for large language models and other large-scale machine learning (ML) models appear to exhibit market concentration, which has raised concerns about whether there are insurmountable barriers to entry in such markets. In this work, we study this issue from both an economic and an algorithmic point of view, focusing on a phenomenon that reduces barriers to entry. Specifically, an incumbent company risks reputational damage unless its model is sufficiently aligned with safety objectives, whereas a new company can more easily avoid reputational damage. To study this issue formally, we define a multi-objective high-dimensional regression framework that captures reputational damage, and we characterize the number of data points that a new company needs to enter the market. Our results demonstrate how multi-objective considerations can fundamentally reduce barriers to entry -- the required number of data points can be significantly smaller than the incumbent company's dataset size. En route to proving these results, we develop scaling laws for high-dimensional linear regression in multi-objective environments, showing that the scaling rate becomes slower when the dataset size is large, which could be of independent interest.

Covert Malicious Finetuning: Challenges in Safeguarding LLM Adaptation

Black-box finetuning is an emerging interface for adapting state-of-the-art language models to user needs. However, such access may also let malicious actors undermine model safety. To demonstrate the challenge of defending finetuning interfaces, we introduce covert malicious finetuning, a method to compromise model safety via finetuning while evading detection. Our method constructs a malicious dataset where every individual datapoint appears innocuous, but finetuning on the dataset teaches the model to respond to encoded harmful requests with encoded harmful responses. Applied to GPT-4, our method produces a finetuned model that acts on harmful instructions 99% of the time and avoids detection by defense mechanisms such as dataset inspection, safety evaluations, and input/output classifiers. Our findings question whether black-box finetuning access can be secured against sophisticated adversaries.

Monitoring Latent World States in Language Models with Propositional Probes

Language models are susceptible to bias, sycophancy, backdoors, and other tendencies that lead to unfaithful responses to the input context. Interpreting internal states of language models could help monitor and correct unfaithful behavior. We hypothesize that language models represent their input contexts in a latent world model, and seek to extract this latent world state from the activations. We do so with 'propositional probes', which compositionally probe tokens for lexical information and bind them into logical propositions representing the world state. For example, given the input context ''Greg is a nurse. Laura is a physicist.'', we decode the propositions ''WorksAs(Greg, nurse)'' and ''WorksAs(Laura, physicist)'' from the model's activations. Key to this is identifying a 'binding subspace' in which bound tokens have high similarity (''Greg'' and ''nurse'') but unbound ones do not (''Greg'' and ''physicist''). We validate propositional probes in a closed-world setting with finitely many predicates and properties. Despite being trained on simple templated contexts, propositional probes generalize to contexts rewritten as short stories and translated to Spanish. Moreover, we find that in three settings where language models respond unfaithfully to the input context -- prompt injections, backdoor attacks, and gender bias -- the decoded propositions remain faithful. This suggests that language models often encode a faithful world model but decode it unfaithfully, which motivates the search for better interpretability tools for monitoring LMs.

Adversaries Can Misuse Combinations of Safe Models

Developers try to evaluate whether an AI system can be misused by adversaries before releasing it; for example, they might test whether a model enables cyberoffense, user manipulation, or bioterrorism. In this work, we show that individually testing models for misuse is inadequate; adversaries can misuse combinations of models even when each individual model is safe. The adversary accomplishes this by first decomposing tasks into subtasks, then solving each subtask with the best-suited model. For example, an adversary might solve challenging-but-benign subtasks with an aligned frontier model, and easy-but-malicious subtasks with a weaker misaligned model. We study two decomposition methods: manual decomposition where a human identifies a natural decomposition of a task, and automated decomposition where a weak model generates benign tasks for a frontier model to solve, then uses the solutions in-context to solve the original task. Using these decompositions, we empirically show that adversaries can create vulnerable code, explicit images, python scripts for hacking, and manipulative tweets at much higher rates with combinations of models than either individual model. Our work suggests that even perfectly-aligned frontier systems can enable misuse without ever producing malicious outputs, and that red-teaming efforts should extend beyond single models in isolation.

Interpreting the Second-Order Effects of Neurons in CLIP

We interpret the function of individual neurons in CLIP by automatically describing them using text. Analyzing the direct effects (i.e. the flow from a neuron through the residual stream to the output) or the indirect effects (overall contribution) fails to capture the neurons' function in CLIP. Therefore, we present the "second-order lens", analyzing the effect flowing from a neuron through the later attention heads, directly to the output. We find that these effects are highly selective: for each neuron, the effect is significant for <2% of the images. Moreover, each effect can be approximated by a single direction in the text-image space of CLIP. We describe neurons by decomposing these directions into sparse sets of text representations. The sets reveal polysemantic behavior - each neuron corresponds to multiple, often unrelated, concepts (e.g. ships and cars). Exploiting this neuron polysemy, we mass-produce "semantic" adversarial examples by generating images with concepts spuriously correlated to the incorrect class. Additionally, we use the second-order effects for zero-shot segmentation and attribute discovery in images. Our results indicate that a scalable understanding of neurons can be used for model deception and for introducing new model capabilities.

Approaching Human-Level Forecasting with Language Models

Forecasting future events is important for policy and decision making. In this work, we study whether language models (LMs) can forecast at the level of competitive human forecasters. Towards this goal, we develop a retrieval-augmented LM system designed to automatically search for relevant information, generate forecasts, and aggregate predictions. To facilitate our study, we collect a large dataset of questions from competitive forecasting platforms. Under a test set published after the knowledge cut-offs of our LMs, we evaluate the end-to-end performance of our system against the aggregates of human forecasts. On average, the system nears the crowd aggregate of competitive forecasters, and in some settings surpasses it. Our work suggests that using LMs to forecast the future could provide accurate predictions at scale and help to inform institutional decision making.

Feedback Loops With Language Models Drive In-Context Reward Hacking

Language models influence the external world: they query APIs that read and write to web pages, generate content that shapes human behavior, and run system commands as autonomous agents. These interactions form feedback loops: LLM outputs affect the world, which in turn affect subsequent LLM outputs. In this work, we show that feedback loops can cause in-context reward hacking (ICRH), where the LLM at test-time optimizes a (potentially implicit) objective but creates negative side effects in the process. For example, consider an LLM agent deployed to increase Twitter engagement; the LLM may retrieve its previous tweets into the context window and make them more controversial, increasing engagement but also toxicity. We identify and study two processes that lead to ICRH: output-refinement and policy-refinement. For these processes, evaluations on static datasets are insufficient -- they miss the feedback effects and thus cannot capture the most harmful behavior. In response, we provide three recommendations for evaluation to capture more instances of ICRH. As AI development accelerates, the effects of feedback loops will proliferate, increasing the need to understand their role in shaping LLM behavior.