Graph-based Uncertainty Metrics for Long-form Language Model Outputs

Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have significantly improved text generation capabilities, but these systems are still known to hallucinate, and granular uncertainty estimation for long-form LLM generations remains challenging. In this work, we propose Graph Uncertainty -- which represents the relationship between LLM generations and claims within them as a bipartite graph and estimates the claim-level uncertainty with a family of graph centrality metrics. Under this view, existing uncertainty estimation methods based on the concept of self-consistency can be viewed as using degree centrality as an uncertainty measure, and we show that more sophisticated alternatives such as closeness centrality provide consistent gains at claim-level uncertainty estimation. Moreover, we present uncertainty-aware decoding techniques that leverage both the graph structure and uncertainty estimates to improve the factuality of LLM generations by preserving only the most reliable claims. Compared to existing methods, our graph-based uncertainty metrics lead to an average of 6.8% relative gains on AUPRC across various long-form generation settings, and our end-to-end system provides consistent 2-4% gains in factuality over existing decoding techniques while significantly improving the informativeness of generated responses.

APPL: A Prompt Programming Language for Harmonious Integration of Programs and Large Language Model Prompts

Large Language Models (LLMs) have become increasingly capable of handling diverse tasks with the aid of well-crafted prompts and integration of external tools, but as task complexity rises, the workflow involving LLMs can be complicated and thus challenging to implement and maintain. To address this challenge, we propose APPL, A Prompt Programming Language that acts as a bridge between computer programs and LLMs, allowing seamless embedding of prompts into Python functions, and vice versa. APPL provides an intuitive and Python-native syntax, an efficient parallelized runtime with asynchronous semantics, and a tracing module supporting effective failure diagnosis and replaying without extra costs. We demonstrate that APPL programs are intuitive, concise, and efficient through three representative scenarios: Chain-of-Thought with self-consistency (CoT-SC), ReAct tool use agent, and multi-agent chat. Experiments on three parallelizable workflows further show that APPL can effectively parallelize independent LLM calls, with a significant speedup ratio that almost matches the estimation.

Observational Scaling Laws and the Predictability of Language Model Performance

Understanding how language model performance varies with scale is critical to benchmark and algorithm development. Scaling laws are one approach to building this understanding, but the requirement of training models across many different scales has limited their use. We propose an alternative, observational approach that bypasses model training and instead builds scaling laws from ~80 publically available models. Building a single scaling law from multiple model families is challenging due to large variations in their training compute efficiencies and capabilities. However, we show that these variations are consistent with a simple, generalized scaling law where language model performance is a function of a low-dimensional capability space, and model families only vary in their efficiency in converting training compute to capabilities. Using this approach, we show the surprising predictability of complex scaling phenomena: we show that several emergent phenomena follow a smooth, sigmoidal behavior and are predictable from small models; we show that the agent performance of models such as GPT-4 can be precisely predicted from simpler non-agentic benchmarks; and we show how to predict the impact of post-training interventions like Chain-of-Thought and Self-Consistency as language model capabilities continue to improve.

Identifying the Risks of LM Agents with an LM-Emulated Sandbox

Recent advances in Language Model (LM) agents and tool use, exemplified by applications like ChatGPT Plugins, enable a rich set of capabilities but also amplify potential risks - such as leaking private data or causing financial losses. Identifying these risks is labor-intensive, necessitating implementing the tools, manually setting up the environment for each test scenario, and finding risky cases. As tools and agents become more complex, the high cost of testing these agents will make it increasingly difficult to find high-stakes, long-tailed risks. To address these challenges, we introduce ToolEmu: a framework that uses an LM to emulate tool execution and enables the testing of LM agents against a diverse range of tools and scenarios, without manual instantiation. Alongside the emulator, we develop an LM-based automatic safety evaluator that examines agent failures and quantifies associated risks. We test both the tool emulator and evaluator through human evaluation and find that 68.8% of failures identified with ToolEmu would be valid real-world agent failures. Using our curated initial benchmark consisting of 36 high-stakes tools and 144 test cases, we provide a quantitative risk analysis of current LM agents and identify numerous failures with potentially severe outcomes. Notably, even the safest LM agent exhibits such failures 23.9% of the time according to our evaluator, underscoring the need to develop safer LM agents for real-world deployment.

Weighted Ensemble Self-Supervised Learning

Ensembling has proven to be a powerful technique for boosting model performance, uncertainty estimation, and robustness in supervised learning. Advances in self-supervised learning (SSL) enable leveraging large unlabeled corpora for state-of-the-art few-shot and supervised learning performance. In this paper, we explore how ensemble methods can improve recent SSL techniques by developing a framework that permits data-dependent weighted cross-entropy losses. We refrain from ensembling the representation backbone; this choice yields an efficient ensemble method that incurs a small training cost and requires no architectural changes or computational overhead to downstream evaluation. The effectiveness of our method is demonstrated with two state-of-the-art SSL methods, DINO (Caron et al., 2021) and MSN (Assran et al., 2022). Our method outperforms both in multiple evaluation metrics on ImageNet-1K, particularly in the few-shot setting. We explore several weighting schemes and find that those which increase the diversity of ensemble heads lead to better downstream evaluation results. Thorough experiments yield improved prior art baselines which our method still surpasses; e.g., our overall improvement with MSN ViT-B/16 is 3.9 p.p. for 1-shot learning.

Augment with Care: Contrastive Learning for the Boolean Satisfiability Problem

Supervised learning can improve the design of state-of-the-art solvers for combinatorial problems, but labelling large numbers of combinatorial instances is often impractical due to exponential worst-case complexity. Inspired by the recent success of contrastive pre-training for images, we conduct a scientific study of the effect of augmentation design on contrastive pre-training for the Boolean satisfiability problem. While typical graph contrastive pre-training uses label-agnostic augmentations, our key insight is that many combinatorial problems have well-studied invariances, which allow for the design of label-preserving augmentations. We find that label-preserving augmentations are critical for the success of contrastive pre-training. We show that our representations are able to achieve comparable test accuracy to fully-supervised learning while using only 1% of the labels. We also demonstrate that our representations are more transferable to larger problems from unseen domains.

Optimal Representations for Covariate Shift

Machine learning systems often experience a distribution shift between training and testing. In this paper, we introduce a simple variational objective whose optima are exactly the set of all representations on which risk minimizers are guaranteed to be robust to any distribution shift that preserves the Bayes predictor, e.g., covariate shifts. Our objective has two components. First, a representation must remain discriminative for the task, i.e., some predictor must be able to simultaneously minimize the source and target risk. Second, the representation's marginal support needs to be the same across source and target. We make this practical by designing self-supervised learning methods that only use unlabelled data and augmentations to train robust representations. Our objectives achieve state-of-the-art results on DomainBed, and give insights into the robustness of recent methods, such as CLIP.

Improving Lossless Compression Rates via Monte Carlo Bits-Back Coding

Latent variable models have been successfully applied in lossless compression with the bits-back coding algorithm. However, bits-back suffers from an increase in the bitrate equal to the KL divergence between the approximate posterior and the true posterior. In this paper, we show how to remove this gap asymptotically by deriving bits-back coding algorithms from tighter variational bounds. The key idea is to exploit extended space representations of Monte Carlo estimators of the marginal likelihood. Naively applied, our schemes would require more initial bits than the standard bits-back coder, but we show how to drastically reduce this additional cost with couplings in the latent space. When parallel architectures can be exploited, our coders can achieve better rates than bits-back with little additional cost. We demonstrate improved lossless compression rates in a variety of settings, including entropy coding for lossy compression.

Learning to Learn by Zeroth-Order Oracle

In the learning to learn (L2L) framework, we cast the design of optimization algorithms as a machine learning problem and use deep neural networks to learn the update rules. In this paper, we extend the L2L framework to zeroth-order (ZO) optimization setting, where no explicit gradient information is available. Our learned optimizer, modeled as recurrent neural network (RNN), first approximates gradient by ZO gradient estimator and then produces parameter update utilizing the knowledge of previous iterations. To reduce high variance effect due to ZO gradient estimator, we further introduce another RNN to learn the Gaussian sampling rule and dynamically guide the query direction sampling. Our learned optimizer outperforms hand-designed algorithms in terms of convergence rate and final solution on both synthetic and practical ZO optimization tasks (in particular, the black-box adversarial attack task, which is one of the most widely used tasks of ZO optimization). We finally conduct extensive analytical experiments to demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed optimizer.

FastSpeech: Fast, Robust and Controllable Text to Speech

Neural network based end-to-end text to speech (TTS) has significantly improved the quality of synthesized speech. Prominent methods (e.g., Tacotron 2) usually first generate mel-spectrogram from text, and then synthesize speech from mel-spectrogram using vocoder such as WaveNet. Compared with traditional concatenative and statistical parametric approaches, neural network based end-to-end models suffer from slow inference speed, and the synthesized speech is usually not robust (i.e., some words are skipped or repeated) and lack of controllability (voice speed or prosody control). In this work, we propose a novel feed-forward network based on Transformer to generate mel-spectrogram in parallel for TTS. Specifically, we extract attention alignments from an encoder-decoder based teacher model for phoneme duration prediction, which is used by a length regulator to expand the source phoneme sequence to match the length of target mel-spectrogram sequence for parallel mel-spectrogram generation. Experiments on the LJSpeech dataset show that our parallel model matches autoregressive models in terms of speech quality, nearly eliminates the problem of word skipping and repeating in particularly hard cases, and can adjust voice speed smoothly. Most importantly, compared with autoregressive Transformer TTS, our model speeds up the mel-spectrogram generation by 270x and the end-to-end speech synthesis by 38x. Therefore, we call our model FastSpeech. We will release the code on Github. Synthesized speech samples can be found in https://speechresearch.github.io/fastspeech/.