DataDecide: How to Predict Best Pretraining Data with Small Experiments

Because large language models are expensive to pretrain on different datasets, using smaller-scale experiments to decide on data is crucial for reducing costs. Which benchmarks and methods of making decisions from observed performance at small scale most accurately predict the datasets that yield the best large models? To empower open exploration of this question, we release models, data, and evaluations in DataDecide -- the most extensive open suite of models over differences in data and scale. We conduct controlled pretraining experiments across 25 corpora with differing sources, deduplication, and filtering up to 100B tokens, model sizes up to 1B parameters, and 3 random seeds. We find that the ranking of models at a single, small size (e.g., 150M parameters) is a strong baseline for predicting best models at our larger target scale (1B) (~80% of com parisons correct). No scaling law methods among 8 baselines exceed the compute-decision frontier of single-scale predictions, but DataDecide can measure improvement in future scaling laws. We also identify that using continuous likelihood metrics as proxies in small experiments makes benchmarks including MMLU, ARC, HellaSwag, MBPP, and HumanEval >80% predictable at the target 1B scale with just 0.01% of the compute.

OLMoTrace: Tracing Language Model Outputs Back to Trillions of Training Tokens

We present OLMoTrace, the first system that traces the outputs of language models back to their full, multi-trillion-token training data in real time. OLMoTrace finds and shows verbatim matches between segments of language model output and documents in the training text corpora. Powered by an extended version of infini-gram (Liu et al., 2024), our system returns tracing results within a few seconds. OLMoTrace can help users understand the behavior of language models through the lens of their training data. We showcase how it can be used to explore fact checking, hallucination, and the creativity of language models. OLMoTrace is publicly available and fully open-source.

EvalTree: Profiling Language Model Weaknesses via Hierarchical Capability Trees

An ideal model evaluation should achieve two goals: identifying where the model fails and providing actionable improvement guidance. Toward these goals for Language Model (LM) evaluations, we formulate the problem of generating a weakness profile, a set of weaknesses expressed in natural language, given an LM's performance on every individual instance in a benchmark. We introduce a suite of quantitative assessments to compare different weakness profiling methods. We also propose a weakness profiling method EvalTree. It constructs a capability tree where each node represents a capability described in natural language and is linked to a subset of benchmark instances that specifically evaluate this capability; it then extracts nodes where the LM performs poorly to generate a weakness profile. On the MATH and WildChat benchmarks, we show that EvalTree outperforms baseline weakness profiling methods by identifying weaknesses more precisely and comprehensively. Weakness profiling further enables weakness-guided data collection, and training data collection guided by EvalTree-identified weaknesses improves LM performance more than other data collection strategies. We also show how EvalTree exposes flaws in Chatbot Arena's human-voter-based evaluation practice. To facilitate future work, we release our code and an interface that allows practitioners to interactively explore the capability trees built by EvalTree.

Group-robust Sample Reweighting for Subpopulation Shifts via Influence Functions

Machine learning models often have uneven performance among subpopulations (a.k.a., groups) in the data distributions. This poses a significant challenge for the models to generalize when the proportions of the groups shift during deployment. To improve robustness to such shifts, existing approaches have developed strategies that train models or perform hyperparameter tuning using the group-labeled data to minimize the worst-case loss over groups. However, a non-trivial amount of high-quality labels is often required to obtain noticeable improvements. Given the costliness of the labels, we propose to adopt a different paradigm to enhance group label efficiency: utilizing the group-labeled data as a target set to optimize the weights of other group-unlabeled data. We introduce Group-robust Sample Reweighting (GSR), a two-stage approach that first learns the representations from group-unlabeled data, and then tinkers the model by iteratively retraining its last layer on the reweighted data using influence functions. Our GSR is theoretically sound, practically lightweight, and effective in improving the robustness to subpopulation shifts. In particular, GSR outperforms the previous state-of-the-art approaches that require the same amount or even more group labels.

Large-Scale Data Selection for Instruction Tuning

Selecting high-quality training data from a larger pool is a crucial step when instruction-tuning language models, as carefully curated datasets often produce models that outperform those trained on much larger, noisier datasets. Automated data selection approaches for instruction-tuning are typically tested by selecting small datasets (roughly 10k samples) from small pools (100-200k samples). However, popular deployed instruction-tuned models often train on hundreds of thousands to millions of samples, subsampled from even larger data pools. We present a systematic study of how well data selection methods scale to these settings, selecting up to 2.5M samples from pools of up to 5.8M samples and evaluating across 7 diverse tasks. We show that many recently proposed methods fall short of random selection in this setting (while using more compute), and even decline in performance when given access to larger pools of data to select over. However, we find that a variant of representation-based data selection (RDS+), which uses weighted mean pooling of pretrained LM hidden states, consistently outperforms more complex methods across all settings tested -- all whilst being more compute-efficient. Our findings highlight that the scaling properties of proposed automated selection methods should be more closely examined. We release our code, data, and models at https://github.com/hamishivi/automated-instruction-selection.

S4S: Solving for a Diffusion Model Solver

Diffusion models (DMs) create samples from a data distribution by starting from random noise and iteratively solving a reverse-time ordinary differential equation (ODE). Because each step in the iterative solution requires an expensive neural function evaluation (NFE), there has been significant interest in approximately solving these diffusion ODEs with only a few NFEs without modifying the underlying model. However, in the few NFE regime, we observe that tracking the true ODE evolution is fundamentally impossible using traditional ODE solvers. In this work, we propose a new method that learns a good solver for the DM, which we call Solving for the Solver (S4S). S4S directly optimizes a solver to obtain good generation quality by learning to match the output of a strong teacher solver. We evaluate S4S on six different pre-trained DMs, including pixel-space and latent-space DMs for both conditional and unconditional sampling. In all settings, S4S uniformly improves the sample quality relative to traditional ODE solvers. Moreover, our method is lightweight, data-free, and can be plugged in black-box on top of any discretization schedule or architecture to improve performance. Building on top of this, we also propose S4S-Alt, which optimizes both the solver and the discretization schedule. By exploiting the full design space of DM solvers, with 5 NFEs, we achieve an FID of 3.73 on CIFAR10 and 13.26 on MS-COCO, representing a $1.5\times$ improvement over previous training-free ODE methods.

ICONS: Influence Consensus for Vision-Language Data Selection

Visual Instruction Tuning typically requires a large amount of vision-language training data. This data often containing redundant information that increases computational costs without proportional performance gains. In this work, we introduce ICONS, a gradient-driven Influence CONsensus approach for vision-language data Selection that selects a compact training dataset for efficient multi-task training. The key element of our approach is cross-task influence consensus, which uses majority voting across task-specific influence matrices to identify samples that are consistently valuable across multiple tasks, allowing us to effectively prioritize data that optimizes for overall performance. Experiments show that models trained on our selected data (20% of LLaVA-665K) achieve 98.6% of the relative performance obtained using the full dataset. Additionally, we release this subset, LLaVA-ICONS-133K, a compact yet highly informative subset of LLaVA-665K visual instruction tuning data, preserving high impact training data for efficient vision-language model development.

2 OLMo 2 Furious

We present OLMo 2, the next generation of our fully open language models. OLMo 2 includes dense autoregressive models with improved architecture and training recipe, pretraining data mixtures, and instruction tuning recipes. Our modified model architecture and training recipe achieve both better training stability and improved per-token efficiency. Our updated pretraining data mixture introduces a new, specialized data mix called Dolmino Mix 1124, which significantly improves model capabilities across many downstream task benchmarks when introduced via late-stage curriculum training (i.e. specialized data during the annealing phase of pretraining). Finally, we incorporate best practices from T\"ulu 3 to develop OLMo 2-Instruct, focusing on permissive data and extending our final-stage reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR). Our OLMo 2 base models sit at the Pareto frontier of performance to compute, often matching or outperforming open-weight only models like Llama 3.1 and Qwen 2.5 while using fewer FLOPs and with fully transparent training data, code, and recipe. Our fully open OLMo 2-Instruct models are competitive with or surpassing open-weight only models of comparable size, including Qwen 2.5, Llama 3.1 and Gemma 2. We release all OLMo 2 artifacts openly -- models at 7B and 13B scales, both pretrained and post-trained, including their full training data, training code and recipes, training logs and thousands of intermediate checkpoints. The final instruction model is available on the Ai2 Playground as a free research demo.

MoSH: Modeling Multi-Objective Tradeoffs with Soft and Hard Bounds

Countless science and engineering applications in multi-objective optimization (MOO) necessitate that decision-makers (DMs) select a Pareto-optimal solution which aligns with their preferences. Evaluating individual solutions is often expensive, necessitating cost-sensitive optimization techniques. Due to competing objectives, the space of trade-offs is also expansive -- thus, examining the full Pareto frontier may prove overwhelming to a DM. Such real-world settings generally have loosely-defined and context-specific desirable regions for each objective function that can aid in constraining the search over the Pareto frontier. We introduce a novel conceptual framework that operationalizes these priors using soft-hard functions, SHFs, which allow for the DM to intuitively impose soft and hard bounds on each objective -- which has been lacking in previous MOO frameworks. Leveraging a novel minimax formulation for Pareto frontier sampling, we propose a two-step process for obtaining a compact set of Pareto-optimal points which respect the user-defined soft and hard bounds: (1) densely sample the Pareto frontier using Bayesian optimization, and (2) sparsify the selected set to surface to the user, using robust submodular function optimization. We prove that (2) obtains the optimal compact Pareto-optimal set of points from (1). We further show that many practical problems fit within the SHF framework and provide extensive empirical validation on diverse domains, including brachytherapy, engineering design, and large language model personalization. Specifically, for brachytherapy, our approach returns a compact set of points with over 3% greater SHF-defined utility than the next best approach. Among the other diverse experiments, our approach consistently leads in utility, allowing the DM to reach >99% of their maximum possible desired utility within validation of 5 points.

Establishing Task Scaling Laws via Compute-Efficient Model Ladders

We develop task scaling laws and model ladders to predict the individual task performance of pretrained language models (LMs) in the overtrained setting. Standard power laws for language modeling loss cannot accurately model task performance. Therefore, we leverage a two-step prediction approach: first use model and data size to predict a task-specific loss, and then use this task loss to predict task performance. We train a set of small-scale "ladder" models, collect data points to fit the parameterized functions of the two prediction steps, and make predictions for two target models: a 7B model trained to 4T tokens and a 13B model trained to 5T tokens. Training the ladder models only costs 1% of the compute used for the target models. On four multiple-choice tasks written in ranked classification format, we can predict the accuracy of both target models within 2 points of absolute error. We have higher prediction error on four other tasks (average absolute error 6.9) and find that these are often tasks with higher variance in task metrics. We also find that using less compute to train fewer ladder models tends to deteriorate predictions. Finally, we empirically show that our design choices and the two-step approach lead to superior performance in establishing scaling laws.