In-Context Parametric Inference: Point or Distribution Estimators?

Bayesian and frequentist inference are two fundamental paradigms in statistical estimation. Bayesian methods treat hypotheses as random variables, incorporating priors and updating beliefs via Bayes' theorem, whereas frequentist methods assume fixed but unknown hypotheses, relying on estimators like maximum likelihood. While extensive research has compared these approaches, the frequentist paradigm of obtaining point estimates has become predominant in deep learning, as Bayesian inference is challenging due to the computational complexity and the approximation gap of posterior estimation methods. However, a good understanding of trade-offs between the two approaches is lacking in the regime of amortized estimators, where in-context learners are trained to estimate either point values via maximum likelihood or maximum a posteriori estimation, or full posteriors using normalizing flows, score-based diffusion samplers, or diagonal Gaussian approximations, conditioned on observations. To help resolve this, we conduct a rigorous comparative analysis spanning diverse problem settings, from linear models to shallow neural networks, with a robust evaluation framework assessing both in-distribution and out-of-distribution generalization on tractable tasks. Our experiments indicate that amortized point estimators generally outperform posterior inference, though the latter remain competitive in some low-dimensional problems, and we further discuss why this might be the case.

Outsourced diffusion sampling: Efficient posterior inference in latent spaces of generative models

Any well-behaved generative model over a variable $\mathbf{x}$ can be expressed as a deterministic transformation of an exogenous ('outsourced') Gaussian noise variable $\mathbf{z}$: $\mathbf{x}=f_\theta(\mathbf{z})$. In such a model (e.g., a VAE, GAN, or continuous-time flow-based model), sampling of the target variable $\mathbf{x} \sim p_\theta(\mathbf{x})$ is straightforward, but sampling from a posterior distribution of the form $p(\mathbf{x}\mid\mathbf{y}) \propto p_\theta(\mathbf{x})r(\mathbf{x},\mathbf{y})$, where $r$ is a constraint function depending on an auxiliary variable $\mathbf{y}$, is generally intractable. We propose to amortize the cost of sampling from such posterior distributions with diffusion models that sample a distribution in the noise space ($\mathbf{z}$). These diffusion samplers are trained by reinforcement learning algorithms to enforce that the transformed samples $f_\theta(\mathbf{z})$ are distributed according to the posterior in the data space ($\mathbf{x}$). For many models and constraints of interest, the posterior in the noise space is smoother than the posterior in the data space, making it more amenable to such amortized inference. Our method enables conditional sampling under unconditional GAN, (H)VAE, and flow-based priors, comparing favorably both with current amortized and non-amortized inference methods. We demonstrate the proposed outsourced diffusion sampling in several experiments with large pretrained prior models: conditional image generation, reinforcement learning with human feedback, and protein structure generation.

From discrete-time policies to continuous-time diffusion samplers: Asymptotic equivalences and faster training

We study the problem of training neural stochastic differential equations, or diffusion models, to sample from a Boltzmann distribution without access to target samples. Existing methods for training such models enforce time-reversal of the generative and noising processes, using either differentiable simulation or off-policy reinforcement learning (RL). We prove equivalences between families of objectives in the limit of infinitesimal discretization steps, linking entropic RL methods (GFlowNets) with continuous-time objects (partial differential equations and path space measures). We further show that an appropriate choice of coarse time discretization during training allows greatly improved sample efficiency and the use of time-local objectives, achieving competitive performance on standard sampling benchmarks with reduced computational cost.

Mixtures of In-Context Learners

In-context learning (ICL) adapts LLMs by providing demonstrations without fine-tuning the model parameters; however, it does not differentiate between demonstrations and quadratically increases the complexity of Transformer LLMs, exhausting the memory. As a solution, we propose Mixtures of In-Context Learners (MoICL), a novel approach to treat subsets of demonstrations as experts and learn a weighting function to merge their output distributions based on a training set. In our experiments, we show performance improvements on 5 out of 7 classification datasets compared to a set of strong baselines (up to +13\% compared to ICL and LENS). Moreover, we enhance the Pareto frontier of ICL by reducing the inference time needed to achieve the same performance with fewer demonstrations. Finally, MoICL is more robust to out-of-domain (up to +11\%), imbalanced (up to +49\%), or noisy demonstrations (up to +38\%) or can filter these out from datasets. Overall, MoICL is a more expressive approach to learning from demonstrations without exhausting the context window or memory.

Action abstractions for amortized sampling

As trajectories sampled by policies used by reinforcement learning (RL) and generative flow networks (GFlowNets) grow longer, credit assignment and exploration become more challenging, and the long planning horizon hinders mode discovery and generalization. The challenge is particularly pronounced in entropy-seeking RL methods, such as generative flow networks, where the agent must learn to sample from a structured distribution and discover multiple high-reward states, each of which take many steps to reach. To tackle this challenge, we propose an approach to incorporate the discovery of action abstractions, or high-level actions, into the policy optimization process. Our approach involves iteratively extracting action subsequences commonly used across many high-reward trajectories and `chunking' them into a single action that is added to the action space. In empirical evaluation on synthetic and real-world environments, our approach demonstrates improved sample efficiency performance in discovering diverse high-reward objects, especially on harder exploration problems. We also observe that the abstracted high-order actions are interpretable, capturing the latent structure of the reward landscape of the action space. This work provides a cognitively motivated approach to action abstraction in RL and is the first demonstration of hierarchical planning in amortized sequential sampling.

Proof Flow: Preliminary Study on Generative Flow Network Language Model Tuning for Formal Reasoning

Reasoning is a fundamental substrate for solving novel and complex problems. Deliberate efforts in learning and developing frameworks around System 2 reasoning have made great strides, yet problems of sufficient complexity remain largely out of reach for open models. To address this gap, we examine the potential of Generative Flow Networks as a fine-tuning method for LLMs to unlock advanced reasoning capabilities. In this paper, we present a proof of concept in the domain of formal reasoning, specifically in the Neural Theorem Proving (NTP) setting, where proofs specified in a formal language such as Lean can be deterministically and objectively verified. Unlike classical reward-maximization reinforcement learning, which frequently over-exploits high-reward actions and fails to effectively explore the state space, GFlowNets have emerged as a promising approach for sampling compositional objects, improving generalization, and enabling models to maintain diverse hypotheses. Our early results demonstrate GFlowNet fine-tuning's potential for enhancing model performance in a search setting, which is especially relevant given the paradigm shift towards inference time compute scaling and "thinking slowly."

Adaptive teachers for amortized samplers

Amortized inference is the task of training a parametric model, such as a neural network, to approximate a distribution with a given unnormalized density where exact sampling is intractable. When sampling is implemented as a sequential decision-making process, reinforcement learning (RL) methods, such as generative flow networks, can be used to train the sampling policy. Off-policy RL training facilitates the discovery of diverse, high-reward candidates, but existing methods still face challenges in efficient exploration. We propose to use an adaptive training distribution (the Teacher) to guide the training of the primary amortized sampler (the Student) by prioritizing high-loss regions. The Teacher, an auxiliary behavior model, is trained to sample high-error regions of the Student and can generalize across unexplored modes, thereby enhancing mode coverage by providing an efficient training curriculum. We validate the effectiveness of this approach in a synthetic environment designed to present an exploration challenge, two diffusion-based sampling tasks, and four biochemical discovery tasks demonstrating its ability to improve sample efficiency and mode coverage.

Can a Bayesian Oracle Prevent Harm from an Agent?

Is there a way to design powerful AI systems based on machine learning methods that would satisfy probabilistic safety guarantees? With the long-term goal of obtaining a probabilistic guarantee that would apply in every context, we consider estimating a context-dependent bound on the probability of violating a given safety specification. Such a risk evaluation would need to be performed at run-time to provide a guardrail against dangerous actions of an AI. Noting that different plausible hypotheses about the world could produce very different outcomes, and because we do not know which one is right, we derive bounds on the safety violation probability predicted under the true but unknown hypothesis. Such bounds could be used to reject potentially dangerous actions. Our main results involve searching for cautious but plausible hypotheses, obtained by a maximization that involves Bayesian posteriors over hypotheses. We consider two forms of this result, in the iid case and in the non-iid case, and conclude with open problems towards turning such theoretical results into practical AI guardrails.

On Generalization for Generative Flow Networks

Generative Flow Networks (GFlowNets) have emerged as an innovative learning paradigm designed to address the challenge of sampling from an unnormalized probability distribution, called the reward function. This framework learns a policy on a constructed graph, which enables sampling from an approximation of the target probability distribution through successive steps of sampling from the learned policy. To achieve this, GFlowNets can be trained with various objectives, each of which can lead to the model s ultimate goal. The aspirational strength of GFlowNets lies in their potential to discern intricate patterns within the reward function and their capacity to generalize effectively to novel, unseen parts of the reward function. This paper attempts to formalize generalization in the context of GFlowNets, to link generalization with stability, and also to design experiments that assess the capacity of these models to uncover unseen parts of the reward function. The experiments will focus on length generalization meaning generalization to states that can be constructed only by longer trajectories than those seen in training.

Amortizing intractable inference in diffusion models for vision, language, and control

Diffusion models have emerged as effective distribution estimators in vision, language, and reinforcement learning, but their use as priors in downstream tasks poses an intractable posterior inference problem. This paper studies amortized sampling of the posterior over data, $\mathbf{x}\sim p^{\rm post}(\mathbf{x})\propto p(\mathbf{x})r(\mathbf{x})$, in a model that consists of a diffusion generative model prior $p(\mathbf{x})$ and a black-box constraint or likelihood function $r(\mathbf{x})$. We state and prove the asymptotic correctness of a data-free learning objective, relative trajectory balance, for training a diffusion model that samples from this posterior, a problem that existing methods solve only approximately or in restricted cases. Relative trajectory balance arises from the generative flow network perspective on diffusion models, which allows the use of deep reinforcement learning techniques to improve mode coverage. Experiments illustrate the broad potential of unbiased inference of arbitrary posteriors under diffusion priors: in vision (classifier guidance), language (infilling under a discrete diffusion LLM), and multimodal data (text-to-image generation). Beyond generative modeling, we apply relative trajectory balance to the problem of continuous control with a score-based behavior prior, achieving state-of-the-art results on benchmarks in offline reinforcement learning.