GenCast: Diffusion-based ensemble forecasting for medium-range weather

Probabilistic weather forecasting is critical for decision-making in high-impact domains such as flood forecasting, energy system planning or transportation routing, where quantifying the uncertainty of a forecast -- including probabilities of extreme events -- is essential to guide important cost-benefit trade-offs and mitigation measures. Traditional probabilistic approaches rely on producing ensembles from physics-based models, which sample from a joint distribution over spatio-temporally coherent weather trajectories, but are expensive to run. An efficient alternative is to use a machine learning (ML) forecast model to generate the ensemble, however state-of-the-art ML forecast models for medium-range weather are largely trained to produce deterministic forecasts which minimise mean-squared-error. Despite improving skills scores, they lack physical consistency, a limitation that grows at longer lead times and impacts their ability to characterize the joint distribution. We introduce GenCast, a ML-based generative model for ensemble weather forecasting, trained from reanalysis data. It forecasts ensembles of trajectories for 84 weather variables, for up to 15 days at 1 degree resolution globally, taking around a minute per ensemble member on a single Cloud TPU v4 device. We show that GenCast is more skillful than ENS, a top operational ensemble forecast, for more than 96\% of all 1320 verification targets on CRPS and Ensemble-Mean RMSE, while maintaining good reliability and physically consistent power spectra. Together our results demonstrate that ML-based probabilistic weather forecasting can now outperform traditional ensemble systems at 1 degree, opening new doors to skillful, fast weather forecasts that are useful in key applications.

Neural General Circulation Models

General circulation models (GCMs) are the foundation of weather and climate prediction. GCMs are physics-based simulators which combine a numerical solver for large-scale dynamics with tuned representations for small-scale processes such as cloud formation. Recently, machine learning (ML) models trained on reanalysis data achieved comparable or better skill than GCMs for deterministic weather forecasting. However, these models have not demonstrated improved ensemble forecasts, or shown sufficient stability for long-term weather and climate simulations. Here we present the first GCM that combines a differentiable solver for atmospheric dynamics with ML components, and show that it can generate forecasts of deterministic weather, ensemble weather and climate on par with the best ML and physics-based methods. NeuralGCM is competitive with ML models for 1-10 day forecasts, and with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble prediction for 1-15 day forecasts. With prescribed sea surface temperature, NeuralGCM can accurately track climate metrics such as global mean temperature for multiple decades, and climate forecasts with 140 km resolution exhibit emergent phenomena such as realistic frequency and trajectories of tropical cyclones. For both weather and climate, our approach offers orders of magnitude computational savings over conventional GCMs. Our results show that end-to-end deep learning is compatible with tasks performed by conventional GCMs, and can enhance the large-scale physical simulations that are essential for understanding and predicting the Earth system.

WeatherBench 2: A benchmark for the next generation of data-driven global weather models

WeatherBench 2 is an update to the global, medium-range (1-14 day) weather forecasting benchmark proposed by Rasp et al. (2020), designed with the aim to accelerate progress in data-driven weather modeling. WeatherBench 2 consists of an open-source evaluation framework, publicly available training, ground truth and baseline data as well as a continuously updated website with the latest metrics and state-of-the-art models: https://sites.research.google/weatherbench. This paper describes the design principles of the evaluation framework and presents results for current state-of-the-art physical and data-driven weather models. The metrics are based on established practices for evaluating weather forecasts at leading operational weather centers. We define a set of headline scores to provide an overview of model performance. In addition, we also discuss caveats in the current evaluation setup and challenges for the future of data-driven weather forecasting.

GraphCast: Learning skillful medium-range global weather forecasting

We introduce a machine-learning (ML)-based weather simulator--called "GraphCast"--which outperforms the most accurate deterministic operational medium-range weather forecasting system in the world, as well as all previous ML baselines. GraphCast is an autoregressive model, based on graph neural networks and a novel high-resolution multi-scale mesh representation, which we trained on historical weather data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)'s ERA5 reanalysis archive. It can make 10-day forecasts, at 6-hour time intervals, of five surface variables and six atmospheric variables, each at 37 vertical pressure levels, on a 0.25-degree latitude-longitude grid, which corresponds to roughly 25 x 25 kilometer resolution at the equator. Our results show GraphCast is more accurate than ECMWF's deterministic operational forecasting system, HRES, on 90.0% of the 2760 variable and lead time combinations we evaluated. GraphCast also outperforms the most accurate previous ML-based weather forecasting model on 99.2% of the 252 targets it reported. GraphCast can generate a 10-day forecast (35 gigabytes of data) in under 60 seconds on Cloud TPU v4 hardware. Unlike traditional forecasting methods, ML-based forecasting scales well with data: by training on bigger, higher quality, and more recent data, the skill of the forecasts can improve. Together these results represent a key step forward in complementing and improving weather modeling with ML, open new opportunities for fast, accurate forecasting, and help realize the promise of ML-based simulation in the physical sciences.

Learning rigid dynamics with face interaction graph networks

Simulating rigid collisions among arbitrary shapes is notoriously difficult due to complex geometry and the strong non-linearity of the interactions. While graph neural network (GNN)-based models are effective at learning to simulate complex physical dynamics, such as fluids, cloth and articulated bodies, they have been less effective and efficient on rigid-body physics, except with very simple shapes. Existing methods that model collisions through the meshes' nodes are often inaccurate because they struggle when collisions occur on faces far from nodes. Alternative approaches that represent the geometry densely with many particles are prohibitively expensive for complex shapes. Here we introduce the Face Interaction Graph Network (FIGNet) which extends beyond GNN-based methods, and computes interactions between mesh faces, rather than nodes. Compared to learned node- and particle-based methods, FIGNet is around 4x more accurate in simulating complex shape interactions, while also 8x more computationally efficient on sparse, rigid meshes. Moreover, FIGNet can learn frictional dynamics directly from real-world data, and can be more accurate than analytical solvers given modest amounts of training data. FIGNet represents a key step forward in one of the few remaining physical domains which have seen little competition from learned simulators, and offers allied fields such as robotics, graphics and mechanical design a new tool for simulation and model-based planning.

TF-GNN: Graph Neural Networks in TensorFlow

TensorFlow GNN (TF-GNN) is a scalable library for Graph Neural Networks in TensorFlow. It is designed from the bottom up to support the kinds of rich heterogeneous graph data that occurs in today's information ecosystems. Many production models at Google use TF-GNN and it has been recently released as an open source project. In this paper, we describe the TF-GNN data model, its Keras modeling API, and relevant capabilities such as graph sampling, distributed training, and accelerator support.

Pre-training via Denoising for Molecular Property Prediction

Many important problems involving molecular property prediction from 3D structures have limited data, posing a generalization challenge for neural networks. In this paper, we describe a pre-training technique that utilizes large datasets of 3D molecular structures at equilibrium to learn meaningful representations for downstream tasks. Inspired by recent advances in noise regularization, our pre-training objective is based on denoising. Relying on the well-known link between denoising autoencoders and score-matching, we also show that the objective corresponds to learning a molecular force field -- arising from approximating the physical state distribution with a mixture of Gaussians -- directly from equilibrium structures. Our experiments demonstrate that using this pre-training objective significantly improves performance on multiple benchmarks, achieving a new state-of-the-art on the majority of targets in the widely used QM9 dataset. Our analysis then provides practical insights into the effects of different factors -- dataset sizes, model size and architecture, and the choice of upstream and downstream datasets -- on pre-training.

Physical Design using Differentiable Learned Simulators

Designing physical artifacts that serve a purpose - such as tools and other functional structures - is central to engineering as well as everyday human behavior. Though automating design has tremendous promise, general-purpose methods do not yet exist. Here we explore a simple, fast, and robust approach to inverse design which combines learned forward simulators based on graph neural networks with gradient-based design optimization. Our approach solves high-dimensional problems with complex physical dynamics, including designing surfaces and tools to manipulate fluid flows and optimizing the shape of an airfoil to minimize drag. This framework produces high-quality designs by propagating gradients through trajectories of hundreds of steps, even when using models that were pre-trained for single-step predictions on data substantially different from the design tasks. In our fluid manipulation tasks, the resulting designs outperformed those found by sampling-based optimization techniques. In airfoil design, they matched the quality of those obtained with a specialized solver. Our results suggest that despite some remaining challenges, machine learning-based simulators are maturing to the point where they can support general-purpose design optimization across a variety of domains.

Learned Coarse Models for Efficient Turbulence Simulation

Turbulence simulation with classical numerical solvers requires very high-resolution grids to accurately resolve dynamics. Here we train learned simulators at low spatial and temporal resolutions to capture turbulent dynamics generated at high resolution. We show that our proposed model can simulate turbulent dynamics more accurately than classical numerical solvers at the same low resolutions across various scientifically relevant metrics. Our model is trained end-to-end from data and is capable of learning a range of challenging chaotic and turbulent dynamics at low resolution, including trajectories generated by the state-of-the-art Athena++ engine. We show that our simpler, general-purpose architecture outperforms various more specialized, turbulence-specific architectures from the learned turbulence simulation literature. In general, we see that learned simulators yield unstable trajectories; however, we show that tuning training noise and temporal downsampling solves this problem. We also find that while generalization beyond the training distribution is a challenge for learned models, training noise, convolutional architectures, and added loss constraints can help. Broadly, we conclude that our learned simulator outperforms traditional solvers run on coarser grids, and emphasize that simple design choices can offer stability and robust generalization.

Constraint-based graph network simulator

In the rapidly advancing area of learned physical simulators, nearly all methods train forward models that directly predict future states from input states. However, many traditional simulation engines use a constraint-based approach instead of direct prediction. Here we present a framework for constraint-based learned simulation, where a scalar constraint function is implemented as a neural network, and future predictions are computed as the solutions to optimization problems under these learned constraints. We implement our method using a graph neural network as the constraint function and gradient descent as the constraint solver. The architecture can be trained by standard backpropagation. We test the model on a variety of challenging physical domains, including simulated ropes, bouncing balls, colliding irregular shapes and splashing fluids. Our model achieves better or comparable performance to top learned simulators. A key advantage of our model is the ability to generalize to more solver iterations at test time to improve the simulation accuracy. We also show how hand-designed constraints can be added at test time to satisfy objectives which were not present in the training data, which is not possible with forward approaches. Our constraint-based framework is applicable to any setting where forward learned simulators are used, and demonstrates how learned simulators can leverage additional inductive biases as well as the techniques from the field of numerical methods.