General Geospatial Inference with a Population Dynamics Foundation Model

Supporting the health and well-being of dynamic populations around the world requires governmental agencies, organizations and researchers to understand and reason over complex relationships between human behavior and local contexts in order to identify high-risk groups and strategically allocate limited resources. Traditional approaches to these classes of problems often entail developing manually curated, task-specific features and models to represent human behavior and the natural and built environment, which can be challenging to adapt to new, or even, related tasks. To address this, we introduce a Population Dynamics Foundation Model (PDFM) that aims to capture the relationships between diverse data modalities and is applicable to a broad range of geospatial tasks. We first construct a geo-indexed dataset for postal codes and counties across the United States, capturing rich aggregated information on human behavior from maps, busyness, and aggregated search trends, and environmental factors such as weather and air quality. We then model this data and the complex relationships between locations using a graph neural network, producing embeddings that can be adapted to a wide range of downstream tasks using relatively simple models. We evaluate the effectiveness of our approach by benchmarking it on 27 downstream tasks spanning three distinct domains: health indicators, socioeconomic factors, and environmental measurements. The approach achieves state-of-the-art performance on all 27 geospatial interpolation tasks, and on 25 out of the 27 extrapolation and super-resolution tasks. We combined the PDFM with a state-of-the-art forecasting foundation model, TimesFM, to predict unemployment and poverty, achieving performance that surpasses fully supervised forecasting. The full set of embeddings and sample code are publicly available for researchers.

UGSL: A Unified Framework for Benchmarking Graph Structure Learning

Graph neural networks (GNNs) demonstrate outstanding performance in a broad range of applications. While the majority of GNN applications assume that a graph structure is given, some recent methods substantially expanded the applicability of GNNs by showing that they may be effective even when no graph structure is explicitly provided. The GNN parameters and a graph structure are jointly learned. Previous studies adopt different experimentation setups, making it difficult to compare their merits. In this paper, we propose a benchmarking strategy for graph structure learning using a unified framework. Our framework, called Unified Graph Structure Learning (UGSL), reformulates existing models into a single model. We implement a wide range of existing models in our framework and conduct extensive analyses of the effectiveness of different components in the framework. Our results provide a clear and concise understanding of the different methods in this area as well as their strengths and weaknesses. The benchmark code is available at https://github.com/google-research/google-research/tree/master/ugsl.

TF-GNN: Graph Neural Networks in TensorFlow

TensorFlow GNN (TF-GNN) is a scalable library for Graph Neural Networks in TensorFlow. It is designed from the bottom up to support the kinds of rich heterogeneous graph data that occurs in today's information ecosystems. Many production models at Google use TF-GNN and it has been recently released as an open source project. In this paper, we describe the TF-GNN data model, its Keras modeling API, and relevant capabilities such as graph sampling, distributed training, and accelerator support.

Leveraging Organizational Resources to Adapt Models to New Data Modalities

As applications in large organizations evolve, the machine learning (ML) models that power them must adapt the same predictive tasks to newly arising data modalities (e.g., a new video content launch in a social media application requires existing text or image models to extend to video). To solve this problem, organizations typically create ML pipelines from scratch. However, this fails to utilize the domain expertise and data they have cultivated from developing tasks for existing modalities. We demonstrate how organizational resources, in the form of aggregate statistics, knowledge bases, and existing services that operate over related tasks, enable teams to construct a common feature space that connects new and existing data modalities. This allows teams to apply methods for training data curation (e.g., weak supervision and label propagation) and model training (e.g., forms of multi-modal learning) across these different data modalities. We study how this use of organizational resources composes at production scale in over 5 classification tasks at Google, and demonstrate how it reduces the time needed to develop models for new modalities from months to weeks to days.