PROPHET: An Inferable Future Forecasting Benchmark with Causal Intervened Likelihood Estimation

Predicting future events stands as one of the ultimate aspirations of artificial intelligence. Recent advances in large language model (LLM)-based systems have shown remarkable potential in forecasting future events, thereby garnering significant interest in the research community. Currently, several benchmarks have been established to evaluate the forecasting capabilities by formalizing the event prediction as a retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) and reasoning task. In these benchmarks, each prediction question is answered with relevant retrieved news articles. However, because there is no consideration on whether the questions can be supported by valid or sufficient supporting rationales, some of the questions in these benchmarks may be inherently noninferable. To address this issue, we introduce a new benchmark, PROPHET, which comprises inferable forecasting questions paired with relevant news for retrieval. To ensure the inferability of the benchmark, we propose Causal Intervened Likelihood (CIL), a statistical measure that assesses inferability through causal inference. In constructing this benchmark, we first collected recent trend forecasting questions and then filtered the data using CIL, resulting in an inferable benchmark for event prediction. Through extensive experiments, we first demonstrate the validity of CIL and in-depth investigations into event prediction with the aid of CIL. Subsequently, we evaluate several representative prediction systems on PROPHET, drawing valuable insights for future directions.

SparseGS-W: Sparse-View 3D Gaussian Splatting in the Wild with Generative Priors

Synthesizing novel views of large-scale scenes from unconstrained in-the-wild images is an important but challenging task in computer vision. Existing methods, which optimize per-image appearance and transient occlusion through implicit neural networks from dense training views (approximately 1000 images), struggle to perform effectively under sparse input conditions, resulting in noticeable artifacts. To this end, we propose SparseGS-W, a novel framework based on 3D Gaussian Splatting that enables the reconstruction of complex outdoor scenes and handles occlusions and appearance changes with as few as five training images. We leverage geometric priors and constrained diffusion priors to compensate for the lack of multi-view information from extremely sparse input. Specifically, we propose a plug-and-play Constrained Novel-View Enhancement module to iteratively improve the quality of rendered novel views during the Gaussian optimization process. Furthermore, we propose an Occlusion Handling module, which flexibly removes occlusions utilizing the inherent high-quality inpainting capability of constrained diffusion priors. Both modules are capable of extracting appearance features from any user-provided reference image, enabling flexible modeling of illumination-consistent scenes. Extensive experiments on the PhotoTourism and Tanks and Temples datasets demonstrate that SparseGS-W achieves state-of-the-art performance not only in full-reference metrics, but also in commonly used non-reference metrics such as FID, ClipIQA, and MUSIQ.

Enhancing LLM Generation with Knowledge Hypergraph for Evidence-Based Medicine

Evidence-based medicine (EBM) plays a crucial role in the application of large language models (LLMs) in healthcare, as it provides reliable support for medical decision-making processes. Although it benefits from current retrieval-augmented generation~(RAG) technologies, it still faces two significant challenges: the collection of dispersed evidence and the efficient organization of this evidence to support the complex queries necessary for EBM. To tackle these issues, we propose using LLMs to gather scattered evidence from multiple sources and present a knowledge hypergraph-based evidence management model to integrate these evidence while capturing intricate relationships. Furthermore, to better support complex queries, we have developed an Importance-Driven Evidence Prioritization (IDEP) algorithm that utilizes the LLM to generate multiple evidence features, each with an associated importance score, which are then used to rank the evidence and produce the final retrieval results. Experimental results from six datasets demonstrate that our approach outperforms existing RAG techniques in application domains of interest to EBM, such as medical quizzing, hallucination detection, and decision support. Testsets and the constructed knowledge graph can be accessed at \href{https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WJ9QTokK3MdkjEmwuFQxwH96j_Byawj_/view?usp=drive_link}{https://drive.google.com/rag4ebm}.

Commenting Higher-level Code Unit: Full Code, Reduced Code, or Hierarchical Code Summarization

Commenting code is a crucial activity in software development, as it aids in facilitating future maintenance and updates. To enhance the efficiency of writing comments and reduce developers' workload, researchers has proposed various automated code summarization (ACS) techniques to automatically generate comments/summaries for given code units. However, these ACS techniques primarily focus on generating summaries for code units at the method level. There is a significant lack of research on summarizing higher-level code units, such as file-level and module-level code units, despite the fact that summaries of these higher-level code units are highly useful for quickly gaining a macro-level understanding of software components and architecture. To fill this gap, in this paper, we conduct a systematic study on how to use LLMs for commenting higher-level code units, including file level and module level. These higher-level units are significantly larger than method-level ones, which poses challenges in handling long code inputs within LLM constraints and maintaining efficiency. To address these issues, we explore various summarization strategies for ACS of higher-level code units, which can be divided into three types: full code summarization, reduced code summarization, and hierarchical code summarization. The experimental results suggest that for summarizing file-level code units, using the full code is the most effective approach, with reduced code serving as a cost-efficient alternative. However, for summarizing module-level code units, hierarchical code summarization becomes the most promising strategy. In addition, inspired by the research on method-level ACS, we also investigate using the LLM as an evaluator to evaluate the quality of summaries of higher-level code units. The experimental results demonstrate that the LLM's evaluation results strongly correlate with human evaluations.

Finite State Automata Inside Transformers with Chain-of-Thought: A Mechanistic Study on State Tracking

Chain-of-Thought (CoT) significantly enhances the performance of large language models (LLMs) across a wide range of tasks, and prior research shows that CoT can theoretically increase expressiveness. However, there is limited mechanistic understanding of the algorithms that Transformer+CoT can learn. In this work, we (1) evaluate the state tracking capabilities of Transformer+CoT and its variants, confirming the effectiveness of CoT. (2) Next, we identify the circuit, a subset of model components, responsible for tracking the world state, finding that late-layer MLP neurons play a key role. We propose two metrics, compression and distinction, and show that the neuron sets for each state achieve nearly 100% accuracy, providing evidence of an implicit finite state automaton (FSA) embedded within the model. (3) Additionally, we explore three realistic settings: skipping intermediate steps, introducing data noise, and testing length generalization. Our results demonstrate that Transformer+CoT learns robust algorithms (FSA), highlighting its resilience in challenging scenarios.

UniTrans: A Unified Vertical Federated Knowledge Transfer Framework for Enhancing Cross-Hospital Collaboration

Cross-hospital collaboration has the potential to address disparities in medical resources across different regions. However, strict privacy regulations prohibit the direct sharing of sensitive patient information between hospitals. Vertical federated learning (VFL) offers a novel privacy-preserving machine learning paradigm that maximizes data utility across multiple hospitals. Traditional VFL methods, however, primarily benefit patients with overlapping data, leaving vulnerable non-overlapping patients without guaranteed improvements in medical prediction services. While some knowledge transfer techniques can enhance the prediction performance for non-overlapping patients, they fall short in addressing scenarios where overlapping and non-overlapping patients belong to different domains, resulting in challenges such as feature heterogeneity and label heterogeneity. To address these issues, we propose a novel unified vertical federated knowledge transfer framework (Unitrans). Our framework consists of three key steps. First, we extract the federated representation of overlapping patients by employing an effective vertical federated representation learning method to model multi-party joint features online. Next, each hospital learns a local knowledge transfer module offline, enabling the transfer of knowledge from the federated representation of overlapping patients to the enriched representation of local non-overlapping patients in a domain-adaptive manner. Finally, hospitals utilize these enriched local representations to enhance performance across various downstream medical prediction tasks. Experiments on real-world medical datasets validate the framework's dual effectiveness in both intra-domain and cross-domain knowledge transfer. The code of \method is available at \url{https://github.com/Chung-ju/Unitrans}.

MB-TaylorFormer V2: Improved Multi-branch Linear Transformer Expanded by Taylor Formula for Image Restoration

Recently, Transformer networks have demonstrated outstanding performance in the field of image restoration due to the global receptive field and adaptability to input. However, the quadratic computational complexity of Softmax-attention poses a significant limitation on its extensive application in image restoration tasks, particularly for high-resolution images. To tackle this challenge, we propose a novel variant of the Transformer. This variant leverages the Taylor expansion to approximate the Softmax-attention and utilizes the concept of norm-preserving mapping to approximate the remainder of the first-order Taylor expansion, resulting in a linear computational complexity. Moreover, we introduce a multi-branch architecture featuring multi-scale patch embedding into the proposed Transformer, which has four distinct advantages: 1) various sizes of the receptive field; 2) multi-level semantic information; 3) flexible shapes of the receptive field; 4) accelerated training and inference speed. Hence, the proposed model, named the second version of Taylor formula expansion-based Transformer (for short MB-TaylorFormer V2) has the capability to concurrently process coarse-to-fine features, capture long-distance pixel interactions with limited computational cost, and improve the approximation of the Taylor expansion remainder. Experimental results across diverse image restoration benchmarks demonstrate that MB-TaylorFormer V2 achieves state-of-the-art performance in multiple image restoration tasks, such as image dehazing, deraining, desnowing, motion deblurring, and denoising, with very little computational overhead. The source code is available at https://github.com/FVL2020/MB-TaylorFormerV2.

Exploring LLM-based Data Annotation Strategies for Medical Dialogue Preference Alignment

This research examines the use of Reinforcement Learning from AI Feedback (RLAIF) techniques to improve healthcare dialogue models, with the aim of tackling the challenges of preference-aligned data annotation while reducing the reliance on medical experts. We argue that the primary challenges in current RLAIF research for healthcare are the limitations of automated evaluation methods and the difficulties in accurately representing physician preferences. To address these challenges, we present a new evaluation framework based on standardized patient examinations. This framework is designed to objectively assess the effectiveness of large language models (LLMs) in guiding users and following instructions, enabling a comprehensive comparison across different models. Furthermore, our investigation of effective ways to express physician preferences using Constitutional AI algorithms highlighted the particular effectiveness of flowcharts. Utilizing this finding, we introduce an innovative agent-based approach for annotating preference data. This approach autonomously creates medical dialogue flows tailored to the patient's condition, demonstrates strong generalization abilities, and reduces the need for expert involvement. Our results show that the agent-based approach outperforms existing RLAIF annotation methods in standardized patient examinations and surpasses current open source medical dialogue LLMs in various test scenarios.

Showing LLM-Generated Code Selectively Based on Confidence of LLMs

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown impressive abilities in code generation, but they may generate erroneous programs. Reading a program takes ten times longer than writing it. Showing these erroneous programs to developers will waste developers' energies and introduce security risks to software. To address the above limitations, we propose HonestCoder, a novel LLM-based code generation approach. HonestCoder selectively shows the generated programs to developers based on LLMs' confidence. The confidence provides valuable insights into the correctness of generated programs. To achieve this goal, we propose a novel approach to estimate LLMs' confidence in code generation. It estimates confidence by measuring the multi-modal similarity between LLMs-generated programs. We collect and release a multilingual benchmark named TruthCodeBench, which consists of 2,265 samples and covers two popular programming languages (i.e., Python and Java). We apply HonestCoder to four popular LLMs (e.g., DeepSeek-Coder and Code Llama) and evaluate it on TruthCodeBench. Based on the experiments, we obtain the following insights. (1) HonestCoder can effectively estimate LLMs' confidence and accurately determine the correctness of generated programs. For example, HonestCoder outperforms the state-of-the-art baseline by 27.79% in AUROC and 63.74% in AUCPR. (2) HonestCoder can decrease the number of erroneous programs shown to developers. Compared to eight baselines, it can show more correct programs and fewer erroneous programs to developers. (3) Compared to showing code indiscriminately, HonestCoder only adds slight time overhead (approximately 0.4 seconds per requirement). (4) We discuss future directions to facilitate the application of LLMs in software development. We hope this work can motivate broad discussions about measuring the reliability of LLMs' outputs in performing code-related tasks.

Generating Equivalent Representations of Code By A Self-Reflection Approach

Equivalent Representations (ERs) of code are textual representations that preserve the same semantics as the code itself, e.g., natural language comments and pseudocode. ERs play a critical role in software development and maintenance. However, how to automatically generate ERs of code remains an open challenge. In this paper, we propose a self-reflection approach to generating ERs of code. It enables two Large Language Models (LLMs) to work mutually and produce an ER through a reflection process. Depending on whether constraints on ERs are applied, our approach generates ERs in both open and constrained settings. We conduct a empirical study to generate ERs in two settings and obtain eight findings. (1) Generating ERs in the open setting. In the open setting, we allow LLMs to represent code without any constraints, analyzing the resulting ERs and uncovering five key findings. These findings shed light on how LLMs comprehend syntactic structures, APIs, and numerical computations in code. (2) Generating ERs in the constrained setting. In the constrained setting, we impose constraints on ERs, such as natural language comments, pseudocode, and flowcharts. This allows our approach to address a range of software engineering tasks. Based on our experiments, we have three findings demonstrating that our approach can effectively generate ERs that adhere to specific constraints, thus supporting various software engineering tasks. (3) Future directions. We also discuss potential future research directions, such as deriving intermediate languages for code generation, exploring LLM-friendly requirement descriptions, and further supporting software engineering tasks. We believe that this paper will spark discussions in research communities and inspire many follow-up studies.