General Causal Imputation via Synthetic Interventions

Given two sets of elements (such as cell types and drug compounds), researchers typically only have access to a limited subset of their interactions. The task of causal imputation involves using this subset to predict unobserved interactions. Squires et al. (2022) have proposed two estimators for this task based on the synthetic interventions (SI) estimator: SI-A (for actions) and SI-C (for contexts). We extend their work and introduce a novel causal imputation estimator, generalized synthetic interventions (GSI). We prove the identifiability of this estimator for data generated from a more complex latent factor model. On synthetic and real data we show empirically that it recovers or outperforms their estimators.

Masked Generative Priors Improve World Models Sequence Modelling Capabilities

Deep Reinforcement Learning (RL) has become the leading approach for creating artificial agents in complex environments. Model-based approaches, which are RL methods with world models that predict environment dynamics, are among the most promising directions for improving data efficiency, forming a critical step toward bridging the gap between research and real-world deployment. In particular, world models enhance sample efficiency by learning in imagination, which involves training a generative sequence model of the environment in a self-supervised manner. Recently, Masked Generative Modelling has emerged as a more efficient and superior inductive bias for modelling and generating token sequences. Building on the Efficient Stochastic Transformer-based World Models (STORM) architecture, we replace the traditional MLP prior with a Masked Generative Prior (e.g., MaskGIT Prior) and introduce GIT-STORM. We evaluate our model on two downstream tasks: reinforcement learning and video prediction. GIT-STORM demonstrates substantial performance gains in RL tasks on the Atari 100k benchmark. Moreover, we apply Transformer-based World Models to continuous action environments for the first time, addressing a significant gap in prior research. To achieve this, we employ a state mixer function that integrates latent state representations with actions, enabling our model to handle continuous control tasks. We validate this approach through qualitative and quantitative analyses on the DeepMind Control Suite, showcasing the effectiveness of Transformer-based World Models in this new domain. Our results highlight the versatility and efficacy of the MaskGIT dynamics prior, paving the way for more accurate world models and effective RL policies.

AI-Assisted Generation of Difficult Math Questions

Current LLM training positions mathematical reasoning as a core capability. With publicly available sources fully tapped, there is unmet demand for diverse and challenging math questions. Relying solely on human experts is both time-consuming and costly, while LLM-generated questions often lack the requisite diversity and difficulty. We present a design framework that combines the strengths of LLMs with a human-in-the-loop approach to generate a diverse array of challenging math questions. We leverage LLM metacognition skills [Didolkar et al., 2024] of a strong LLM to extract core "skills" from existing math datasets. These skills serve as the basis for generating novel and difficult questions by prompting the LLM with random pairs of core skills. The use of two different skills within each question makes finding such questions an "out of distribution" task for both LLMs and humans. Our pipeline employs LLMs to iteratively generate and refine questions and solutions through multiturn prompting. Human annotators then verify and further refine the questions, with their efficiency enhanced via further LLM interactions. Applying this pipeline on skills extracted from the MATH dataset [Hendrycks et al., 2021] resulted in MATH$^2$ - a dataset of higher-quality math questions, as evidenced by: (a) Lower performance of all models on MATH$^2$ than on MATH (b) Higher performance on MATH when using MATH$^2$ questions as in-context examples. Although focused on mathematics, our methodology seems applicable to other domains requiring structured reasoning, and potentially as a component of scalable oversight. Also of interest is a striking relationship observed between models' performance on the new dataset: the success rate on MATH$^2$ is the square on MATH, suggesting that successfully solving the question in MATH$^2$ requires a nontrivial combination of two distinct math skills.

Towards DNA-Encoded Library Generation with GFlowNets

DNA-encoded libraries (DELs) are a powerful approach for rapidly screening large numbers of diverse compounds. One of the key challenges in using DELs is library design, which involves choosing the building blocks that will be combinatorially combined to produce the final library. In this paper we consider the task of protein-protein interaction (PPI) biased DEL design. To this end, we evaluate several machine learning algorithms on the PPI modulation task and use them as a reward for the proposed GFlowNet-based generative approach. We additionally investigate the possibility of using structural information about building blocks to design a hierarchical action space for the GFlowNet. The observed results indicate that GFlowNets are a promising approach for generating diverse combinatorial library candidates.

Efficient Causal Graph Discovery Using Large Language Models

We propose a novel framework that leverages LLMs for full causal graph discovery. While previous LLM-based methods have used a pairwise query approach, this requires a quadratic number of queries which quickly becomes impractical for larger causal graphs. In contrast, the proposed framework uses a breadth-first search (BFS) approach which allows it to use only a linear number of queries. We also show that the proposed method can easily incorporate observational data when available, to improve performance. In addition to being more time and data-efficient, the proposed framework achieves state-of-the-art results on real-world causal graphs of varying sizes. The results demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method in discovering causal relationships, showcasing its potential for broad applicability in causal graph discovery tasks across different domains.

Unlearning via Sparse Representations

Machine \emph{unlearning}, which involves erasing knowledge about a \emph{forget set} from a trained model, can prove to be costly and infeasible by existing techniques. We propose a nearly compute-free zero-shot unlearning technique based on a discrete representational bottleneck. We show that the proposed technique efficiently unlearns the forget set and incurs negligible damage to the model's performance on the rest of the data set. We evaluate the proposed technique on the problem of \textit{class unlearning} using three datasets: CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, and LACUNA-100. We compare the proposed technique to SCRUB, a state-of-the-art approach which uses knowledge distillation for unlearning. Across all three datasets, the proposed technique performs as well as, if not better than SCRUB while incurring almost no computational cost.

Neural Feature-Adaptation for Symbolic Predictions Using Pre-Training and Semantic Loss

We are interested in neurosymbolic systems consisting of a high-level symbolic layer for explainable prediction in terms of human-intelligible concepts; and a low-level neural layer for extracting symbols required to generate the symbolic explanation. Real data is often imperfect meaning that even if the symbolic theory remains unchanged, we may still need to address the problem of mapping raw data to high-level symbols, each time there is a change in the data acquisition environment or equipment. Manual (re-)annotation of the raw data each time this happens is laborious and expensive; and automated labelling methods are often imperfect, especially for complex problems. NEUROLOG proposed the use of a semantic loss function that allows an existing feature-based symbolic model to guide the extraction of feature-values from raw data, using `abduction'. However, the experiments demonstrating the use of semantic loss through abduction appear to rely heavily on a domain-specific pre-processing step that enables a prior delineation of feature locations in the raw data. We examine the use of semantic loss in domains where such pre-processing is not possible, or is not obvious. We show that without any prior information about the features, the NEUROLOG approach can continue to predict accurately even with substantially incorrect feature predictions. We show also that prior information about the features in the form of even imperfect pre-training can help correct this situation. These findings are replicated on the original problem considered by NEUROLOG, without the use of feature-delineation. This suggests that symbolic explanations constructed for data in a domain could be re-used in a related domain, by `feature-adaptation' of pre-trained neural extractors using the semantic loss function constrained by abductive feedback.

Stateful active facilitator: Coordination and Environmental Heterogeneity in Cooperative Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

In cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning, a team of agents works together to achieve a common goal. Different environments or tasks may require varying degrees of coordination among agents in order to achieve the goal in an optimal way. The nature of coordination will depend on properties of the environment -- its spatial layout, distribution of obstacles, dynamics, etc. We term this variation of properties within an environment as heterogeneity. Existing literature has not sufficiently addressed the fact that different environments may have different levels of heterogeneity. We formalize the notions of coordination level and heterogeneity level of an environment and present HECOGrid, a suite of multi-agent RL environments that facilitates empirical evaluation of different MARL approaches across different levels of coordination and environmental heterogeneity by providing a quantitative control over coordination and heterogeneity levels of the environment. Further, we propose a Centralized Training Decentralized Execution learning approach called Stateful Active Facilitator (SAF) that enables agents to work efficiently in high-coordination and high-heterogeneity environments through a differentiable and shared knowledge source used during training and dynamic selection from a shared pool of policies. We evaluate SAF and compare its performance against baselines IPPO and MAPPO on HECOGrid. Our results show that SAF consistently outperforms the baselines across different tasks and different heterogeneity and coordination levels.

Coordinating Policies Among Multiple Agents via an Intelligent Communication Channel

In Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL), specialized channels are often introduced that allow agents to communicate directly with one another. In this paper, we propose an alternative approach whereby agents communicate through an intelligent facilitator that learns to sift through and interpret signals provided by all agents to improve the agents' collective performance. To ensure that this facilitator does not become a centralized controller, agents are incentivized to reduce their dependence on the messages it conveys, and the messages can only influence the selection of a policy from a fixed set, not instantaneous actions given the policy. We demonstrate the strength of this architecture over existing baselines on several cooperative MARL environments.

Forecasting Market Prices using DL with Data Augmentation and Meta-learning: ARIMA still wins!

Deep-learning techniques have been successfully used for time-series forecasting and have often shown superior performance on many standard benchmark datasets as compared to traditional techniques. Here we present a comprehensive and comparative study of performance of deep-learning techniques for forecasting prices in financial markets. We benchmark state-of-the-art deep-learning baselines, such as NBeats, etc., on data from currency as well as stock markets. We also generate synthetic data using a fuzzy-logic based model of demand driven by technical rules such as moving averages, which are often used by traders. We benchmark the baseline techniques on this synthetic data as well as use it for data augmentation. We also apply gradient-based meta-learning to account for non-stationarity of financial time-series. Our extensive experiments notwithstanding, the surprising result is that the standard ARIMA models outperforms deep-learning even using data augmentation or meta-learning. We conclude by speculating as to why this might be the case.