Neural equilibria for long-term prediction of nonlinear conservation laws

We introduce Neural Discrete Equilibrium (NeurDE), a machine learning (ML) approach for long-term forecasting of flow phenomena that relies on a "lifting" of physical conservation laws into the framework of kinetic theory. The kinetic formulation provides an excellent structure for ML algorithms by separating nonlinear, non-local physics into a nonlinear but local relaxation to equilibrium and a linear non-local transport. This separation allows the ML to focus on the local nonlinear components while addressing the simpler linear transport with efficient classical numerical algorithms. To accomplish this, we design an operator network that maps macroscopic observables to equilibrium states in a manner that maximizes entropy, yielding expressive BGK-type collisions. By incorporating our surrogate equilibrium into the lattice Boltzmann (LB) algorithm, we achieve accurate flow forecasts for a wide range of challenging flows. We show that NeurDE enables accurate prediction of compressible flows, including supersonic flows, while tracking shocks over hundreds of time steps, using a small velocity lattice-a heretofore unattainable feat without expensive numerical root finding.

Using Pre-trained LLMs for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting

Pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) encapsulate large amounts of knowledge and take enormous amounts of compute to train. We make use of this resource, together with the observation that LLMs are able to transfer knowledge and performance from one domain or even modality to another seemingly-unrelated area, to help with multivariate demand time series forecasting. Attention in transformer-based methods requires something worth attending to -- more than just samples of a time-series. We explore different methods to map multivariate input time series into the LLM token embedding space. In particular, our novel multivariate patching strategy to embed time series features into decoder-only pre-trained Transformers produces results competitive with state-of-the-art time series forecasting models. We also use recently-developed weight-based diagnostics to validate our findings.

A Statistical Framework for Ranking LLM-Based Chatbots

Large language models (LLMs) have transformed natural language processing, with frameworks like Chatbot Arena providing pioneering platforms for evaluating these models. By facilitating millions of pairwise comparisons based on human judgments, Chatbot Arena has become a cornerstone in LLM evaluation, offering rich datasets for ranking models in open-ended conversational tasks. Building upon this foundation, we propose a statistical framework that incorporates key advancements to address specific challenges in pairwise comparison analysis. First, we introduce a factored tie model that enhances the ability to handle ties -- an integral aspect of human-judged comparisons -- significantly improving the model's fit to observed data. Second, we extend the framework to model covariance between competitors, enabling deeper insights into performance relationships and facilitating intuitive groupings into performance tiers. Third, we resolve optimization challenges arising from parameter non-uniqueness by introducing novel constraints, ensuring stable and interpretable parameter estimation. Through rigorous evaluation and extensive experimentation, our framework demonstrates substantial improvements over existing methods in modeling pairwise comparison data. To support reproducibility and practical adoption, we release leaderbot, an open-source Python package implementing our models and analyses.

LossLens: Diagnostics for Machine Learning through Loss Landscape Visual Analytics

Modern machine learning often relies on optimizing a neural network's parameters using a loss function to learn complex features. Beyond training, examining the loss function with respect to a network's parameters (i.e., as a loss landscape) can reveal insights into the architecture and learning process. While the local structure of the loss landscape surrounding an individual solution can be characterized using a variety of approaches, the global structure of a loss landscape, which includes potentially many local minima corresponding to different solutions, remains far more difficult to conceptualize and visualize. To address this difficulty, we introduce LossLens, a visual analytics framework that explores loss landscapes at multiple scales. LossLens integrates metrics from global and local scales into a comprehensive visual representation, enhancing model diagnostics. We demonstrate LossLens through two case studies: visualizing how residual connections influence a ResNet-20, and visualizing how physical parameters influence a physics-informed neural network (PINN) solving a simple convection problem.

Enhancing Foundation Models for Time Series Forecasting via Wavelet-based Tokenization

How to best develop foundational models for time series forecasting remains an important open question. Tokenization is a crucial consideration in this effort: what is an effective discrete vocabulary for a real-valued sequential input? To address this question, we develop WaveToken, a wavelet-based tokenizer that allows models to learn complex representations directly in the space of time-localized frequencies. Our method first scales and decomposes the input time series, then thresholds and quantizes the wavelet coefficients, and finally pre-trains an autoregressive model to forecast coefficients for the forecast horizon. By decomposing coarse and fine structures in the inputs, wavelets provide an eloquent and compact language for time series forecasting that simplifies learning. Empirical results on a comprehensive benchmark, including 42 datasets for both in-domain and zero-shot settings, show that WaveToken: i) provides better accuracy than recently proposed foundation models for forecasting while using a much smaller vocabulary (1024 tokens), and performs on par or better than modern deep learning models trained specifically on each dataset; and ii) exhibits superior generalization capabilities, achieving the best average rank across all datasets for three complementary metrics. In addition, we show that our method can easily capture complex temporal patterns of practical relevance that are challenging for other recent pre-trained models, including trends, sparse spikes, and non-stationary time series with varying frequencies evolving over time.

LLMForecaster: Improving Seasonal Event Forecasts with Unstructured Textual Data

Modern time-series forecasting models often fail to make full use of rich unstructured information about the time series themselves. This lack of proper conditioning can lead to obvious model failures; for example, models may be unaware of the details of a particular product, and hence fail to anticipate seasonal surges in customer demand in the lead up to major exogenous events like holidays for clearly relevant products. To address this shortcoming, this paper introduces a novel forecast post-processor -- which we call LLMForecaster -- that fine-tunes large language models (LLMs) to incorporate unstructured semantic and contextual information and historical data to improve the forecasts from an existing demand forecasting pipeline. In an industry-scale retail application, we demonstrate that our technique yields statistically significantly forecast improvements across several sets of products subject to holiday-driven demand surges.

Hard Constraint Guided Flow Matching for Gradient-Free Generation of PDE Solutions

Generative models that satisfy hard constraints are crucial in many scientific and engineering applications where physical laws or system requirements must be strictly respected. However, many existing constrained generative models, especially those developed for computer vision, rely heavily on gradient information, often sparse or computationally expensive in fields like partial differential equations (PDEs). In this work, we introduce a novel framework for adapting pre-trained, unconstrained flow-matching models to satisfy constraints exactly in a zero-shot manner without requiring expensive gradient computations or fine-tuning. Our framework, ECI sampling, alternates between extrapolation (E), correction (C), and interpolation (I) stages during each iterative sampling step of flow matching sampling to ensure accurate integration of constraint information while preserving the validity of the generation. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach across various PDE systems, showing that ECI-guided generation strictly adheres to physical constraints and accurately captures complex distribution shifts induced by these constraints. Empirical results demonstrate that our framework consistently outperforms baseline approaches in various zero-shot constrained generation tasks and also achieves competitive results in the regression tasks without additional fine-tuning.

Visualizing Loss Functions as Topological Landscape Profiles

In machine learning, a loss function measures the difference between model predictions and ground-truth (or target) values. For neural network models, visualizing how this loss changes as model parameters are varied can provide insights into the local structure of the so-called loss landscape (e.g., smoothness) as well as global properties of the underlying model (e.g., generalization performance). While various methods for visualizing the loss landscape have been proposed, many approaches limit sampling to just one or two directions, ignoring potentially relevant information in this extremely high-dimensional space. This paper introduces a new representation based on topological data analysis that enables the visualization of higher-dimensional loss landscapes. After describing this new topological landscape profile representation, we show how the shape of loss landscapes can reveal new details about model performance and learning dynamics, highlighting several use cases, including image segmentation (e.g., UNet) and scientific machine learning (e.g., physics-informed neural networks). Through these examples, we provide new insights into how loss landscapes vary across distinct hyperparameter spaces: we find that the topology of the loss landscape is simpler for better-performing models; and we observe greater variation in the shape of loss landscapes near transitions from low to high model performance.

Evaluating Loss Landscapes from a Topology Perspective

Characterizing the loss of a neural network with respect to model parameters, i.e., the loss landscape, can provide valuable insights into properties of that model. Various methods for visualizing loss landscapes have been proposed, but less emphasis has been placed on quantifying and extracting actionable and reproducible insights from these complex representations. Inspired by powerful tools from topological data analysis (TDA) for summarizing the structure of high-dimensional data, here we characterize the underlying shape (or topology) of loss landscapes, quantifying the topology to reveal new insights about neural networks. To relate our findings to the machine learning (ML) literature, we compute simple performance metrics (e.g., accuracy, error), and we characterize the local structure of loss landscapes using Hessian-based metrics (e.g., largest eigenvalue, trace, eigenvalue spectral density). Following this approach, we study established models from image pattern recognition (e.g., ResNets) and scientific ML (e.g., physics-informed neural networks), and we show how quantifying the shape of loss landscapes can provide new insights into model performance and learning dynamics.

Squeezed Attention: Accelerating Long Context Length LLM Inference

Emerging Large Language Model (LLM) applications require long input prompts to perform complex downstream tasks like document analysis and code generation. For these long context length applications, the length of the input prompt poses a significant challenge in terms of inference efficiency since the inference costs increase linearly with sequence length. However, for many of these applications, much of the context in the prompt is fixed across different user inputs, thereby providing the opportunity to perform offline optimizations to process user inputs quickly, as they are received. In this work, we propose Squeezed Attention as a mechanism to accelerate LLM applications where a large portion of the input prompt is fixed. We first leverage K-means clustering offline to group the keys for the fixed context based on semantic similarity and represent each cluster with a single centroid value. During inference, we compare query tokens from the user input with the centroids to predict which of the keys from the fixed context are semantically relevant and need to be loaded during inference. We then compute exact attention using only these important keys from the fixed context, thereby reducing bandwidth and computational costs. We also extend our method to use a hierarchical centroid lookup to identify important keys, which can reduce the complexity of attention from linear to logarithmic with respect to the context length. We implement optimized Triton kernels for centroid comparison and sparse FlashAttention with important keys, achieving more than 4x speedups during both the prefill and generation phases for long-context inference. Furthermore, we have extensively evaluated our method on various long-context benchmarks including LongBench, where it achieves a 3x reduction in KV cache budget without accuracy loss and up to an 8x reduction with <0.5 point accuracy gap for various models.