Beyond Data Scarcity: A Frequency-Driven Framework for Zero-Shot Forecasting

Time series forecasting is critical in numerous real-world applications, requiring accurate predictions of future values based on observed patterns. While traditional forecasting techniques work well in in-domain scenarios with ample data, they struggle when data is scarce or not available at all, motivating the emergence of zero-shot and few-shot learning settings. Recent advancements often leverage large-scale foundation models for such tasks, but these methods require extensive data and compute resources, and their performance may be hindered by ineffective learning from the available training set. This raises a fundamental question: What factors influence effective learning from data in time series forecasting? Toward addressing this, we propose using Fourier analysis to investigate how models learn from synthetic and real-world time series data. Our findings reveal that forecasters commonly suffer from poor learning from data with multiple frequencies and poor generalization to unseen frequencies, which impedes their predictive performance. To alleviate these issues, we present a novel synthetic data generation framework, designed to enhance real data or replace it completely by creating task-specific frequency information, requiring only the sampling rate of the target data. Our approach, Freq-Synth, improves the robustness of both foundation as well as nonfoundation forecast models in zero-shot and few-shot settings, facilitating more reliable time series forecasting under limited data scenarios.

Utilizing Image Transforms and Diffusion Models for Generative Modeling of Short and Long Time Series

Lately, there has been a surge in interest surrounding generative modeling of time series data. Most existing approaches are designed either to process short sequences or to handle long-range sequences. This dichotomy can be attributed to gradient issues with recurrent networks, computational costs associated with transformers, and limited expressiveness of state space models. Towards a unified generative model for varying-length time series, we propose in this work to transform sequences into images. By employing invertible transforms such as the delay embedding and the short-time Fourier transform, we unlock three main advantages: i) We can exploit advanced diffusion vision models; ii) We can remarkably process short- and long-range inputs within the same framework; and iii) We can harness recent and established tools proposed in the time series to image literature. We validate the effectiveness of our method through a comprehensive evaluation across multiple tasks, including unconditional generation, interpolation, and extrapolation. We show that our approach achieves consistently state-of-the-art results against strong baselines. In the unconditional generation tasks, we show remarkable mean improvements of 58.17% over previous diffusion models in the short discriminative score and 132.61% in the (ultra-)long classification scores. Code is at https://github.com/azencot-group/ImagenTime.

Analyzing Deep Transformer Models for Time Series Forecasting via Manifold Learning

Transformer models have consistently achieved remarkable results in various domains such as natural language processing and computer vision. However, despite ongoing research efforts to better understand these models, the field still lacks a comprehensive understanding. This is particularly true for deep time series forecasting methods, where analysis and understanding work is relatively limited. Time series data, unlike image and text information, can be more challenging to interpret and analyze. To address this, we approach the problem from a manifold learning perspective, assuming that the latent representations of time series forecasting models lie next to a low-dimensional manifold. In our study, we focus on analyzing the geometric features of these latent data manifolds, including intrinsic dimension and principal curvatures. Our findings reveal that deep transformer models exhibit similar geometric behavior across layers, and these geometric features are correlated with model performance. Additionally, we observe that untrained models initially have different structures, but they rapidly converge during training. By leveraging our geometric analysis and differentiable tools, we can potentially design new and improved deep forecasting neural networks. This approach complements existing analysis studies and contributes to a better understanding of transformer models in the context of time series forecasting. Code is released at https://github.com/azencot-group/GATLM.

Learning Physics for Unveiling Hidden Earthquake Ground Motions via Conditional Generative Modeling

Predicting high-fidelity ground motions for future earthquakes is crucial for seismic hazard assessment and infrastructure resilience. Conventional empirical simulations suffer from sparse sensor distribution and geographically localized earthquake locations, while physics-based methods are computationally intensive and require accurate representations of Earth structures and earthquake sources. We propose a novel artificial intelligence (AI) simulator, Conditional Generative Modeling for Ground Motion (CGM-GM), to synthesize high-frequency and spatially continuous earthquake ground motion waveforms. CGM-GM leverages earthquake magnitudes and geographic coordinates of earthquakes and sensors as inputs, learning complex wave physics and Earth heterogeneities, without explicit physics constraints. This is achieved through a probabilistic autoencoder that captures latent distributions in the time-frequency domain and variational sequential models for prior and posterior distributions. We evaluate the performance of CGM-GM using small-magnitude earthquake records from the San Francisco Bay Area, a region with high seismic risks. CGM-GM demonstrates a strong potential for outperforming a state-of-the-art non-ergodic empirical ground motion model and shows great promise in seismology and beyond.

Sequential Disentanglement by Extracting Static Information From A Single Sequence Element

One of the fundamental representation learning tasks is unsupervised sequential disentanglement, where latent codes of inputs are decomposed to a single static factor and a sequence of dynamic factors. To extract this latent information, existing methods condition the static and dynamic codes on the entire input sequence. Unfortunately, these models often suffer from information leakage, i.e., the dynamic vectors encode both static and dynamic information, or vice versa, leading to a non-disentangled representation. Attempts to alleviate this problem via reducing the dynamic dimension and auxiliary loss terms gain only partial success. Instead, we propose a novel and simple architecture that mitigates information leakage by offering a simple and effective subtraction inductive bias while conditioning on a single sample. Remarkably, the resulting variational framework is simpler in terms of required loss terms, hyperparameters, and data augmentation. We evaluate our method on multiple data-modality benchmarks including general time series, video, and audio, and we show beyond state-of-the-art results on generation and prediction tasks in comparison to several strong baselines.

First-Order Manifold Data Augmentation for Regression Learning

Data augmentation (DA) methods tailored to specific domains generate synthetic samples by applying transformations that are appropriate for the characteristics of the underlying data domain, such as rotations on images and time warping on time series data. In contrast, domain-independent approaches, e.g. mixup, are applicable to various data modalities, and as such they are general and versatile. While regularizing classification tasks via DA is a well-explored research topic, the effect of DA on regression problems received less attention. To bridge this gap, we study the problem of domain-independent augmentation for regression, and we introduce FOMA: a new data-driven domain-independent data augmentation method. Essentially, our approach samples new examples from the tangent planes of the train distribution. Augmenting data in this way aligns with the network tendency towards capturing the dominant features of its input signals. We evaluate FOMA on in-distribution generalization and out-of-distribution robustness benchmarks, and we show that it improves the generalization of several neural architectures. We also find that strong baselines based on mixup are less effective in comparison to our approach. Our code is publicly available athttps://github.com/azencot-group/FOMA.

Data Augmentation Policy Search for Long-Term Forecasting

Data augmentation serves as a popular regularization technique to combat overfitting challenges in neural networks. While automatic augmentation has demonstrated success in image classification tasks, its application to time-series problems, particularly in long-term forecasting, has received comparatively less attention. To address this gap, we introduce a time-series automatic augmentation approach named TSAA, which is both efficient and easy to implement. The solution involves tackling the associated bilevel optimization problem through a two-step process: initially training a non-augmented model for a limited number of epochs, followed by an iterative split procedure. During this iterative process, we alternate between identifying a robust augmentation policy through Bayesian optimization and refining the model while discarding suboptimal runs. Extensive evaluations on challenging univariate and multivariate forecasting benchmark problems demonstrate that TSAA consistently outperforms several robust baselines, suggesting its potential integration into prediction pipelines.

Generative Modeling of Graphs via Joint Diffusion of Node and Edge Attributes

Graph generation is integral to various engineering and scientific disciplines. Nevertheless, existing methodologies tend to overlook the generation of edge attributes. However, we identify critical applications where edge attributes are essential, making prior methods potentially unsuitable in such contexts. Moreover, while trivial adaptations are available, empirical investigations reveal their limited efficacy as they do not properly model the interplay among graph components. To address this, we propose a joint score-based model of nodes and edges for graph generation that considers all graph components. Our approach offers two key novelties: (i) node and edge attributes are combined in an attention module that generates samples based on the two ingredients; and (ii) node, edge and adjacency information are mutually dependent during the graph diffusion process. We evaluate our method on challenging benchmarks involving real-world and synthetic datasets in which edge features are crucial. Additionally, we introduce a new synthetic dataset that incorporates edge values. Furthermore, we propose a novel application that greatly benefits from the method due to its nature: the generation of traffic scenes represented as graphs. Our method outperforms other graph generation methods, demonstrating a significant advantage in edge-related measures.

Generative Modeling of Regular and Irregular Time Series Data via Koopman VAEs

Generating realistic time series data is important for many engineering and scientific applications. Existing work tackles this problem using generative adversarial networks (GANs). However, GANs are often unstable during training, and they can suffer from mode collapse. While variational autoencoders (VAEs) are known to be more robust to these issues, they are (surprisingly) less often considered for time series generation. In this work, we introduce Koopman VAE (KVAE), a new generative framework that is based on a novel design for the model prior, and that can be optimized for either regular and irregular training data. Inspired by Koopman theory, we represent the latent conditional prior dynamics using a linear map. Our approach enhances generative modeling with two desired features: (i) incorporating domain knowledge can be achieved by leverageing spectral tools that prescribe constraints on the eigenvalues of the linear map; and (ii) studying the qualitative behavior and stablity of the system can be performed using tools from dynamical systems theory. Our results show that KVAE outperforms state-of-the-art GAN and VAE methods across several challenging synthetic and real-world time series generation benchmarks. Whether trained on regular or irregular data, KVAE generates time series that improve both discriminative and predictive metrics. We also present visual evidence suggesting that KVAE learns probability density functions that better approximate empirical ground truth distributions.

Sample and Predict Your Latent: Modality-free Sequential Disentanglement via Contrastive Estimation

Unsupervised disentanglement is a long-standing challenge in representation learning. Recently, self-supervised techniques achieved impressive results in the sequential setting, where data is time-dependent. However, the latter methods employ modality-based data augmentations and random sampling or solve auxiliary tasks. In this work, we propose to avoid that by generating, sampling, and comparing empirical distributions from the underlying variational model. Unlike existing work, we introduce a self-supervised sequential disentanglement framework based on contrastive estimation with no external signals, while using common batch sizes and samples from the latent space itself. In practice, we propose a unified, efficient, and easy-to-code sampling strategy for semantically similar and dissimilar views of the data. We evaluate our approach on video, audio, and time series benchmarks. Our method presents state-of-the-art results in comparison to existing techniques. The code is available at https://github.com/azencot-group/SPYL.