Time series analysis comprises statistical methods for analyzing a sequence of data points collected over an interval of time to identify interesting patterns and trends.
Next-generation fusion facilities like ITER face a "data deluge," generating petabytes of multi-diagnostic signals daily that challenge manual analysis. We present a "signals-first" self-supervised framework for the automated extraction of coherent and transient modes from high-noise time-frequency data across a variety of sensors. We also develop a general-purpose method and tool for extracting coherent, quasi-coherent, and transient modes for fluctuation measurements in tokamaks by employing non-linear optimal techniques in multichannel signal processing with a fast neural network surrogate on fast magnetics, electron cyclotron emission, CO2 interferometers, and beam emission spectroscopy measurements from DIII-D. Results are tested on data from DIII-D, TJ-II, and non-fusion spectrograms. With an inference latency of 0.5 seconds, this framework enables real-time mode identification and large-scale automated database generation for advanced plasma control. Repository is in https://github.com/PlasmaControl/TokEye.
Electrocardiogram (ECG) analysis is crucial for diagnosing heart disease, but most self-supervised learning methods treat ECG as a generic time series, overlooking physiologic semantics and rhythm-level structure. Existing contrastive methods utilize augmentations that distort morphology, whereas generative approaches employ fixed-window segmentation, which misaligns cardiac cycles. To address these limitations, we propose RhythmBERT, a generative ECG language model that considers ECG as a language paradigm by encoding P, QRS, and T segments into symbolic tokens via autoencoder-based latent representations. These discrete tokens capture rhythm semantics, while complementary continuous embeddings retain fine-grained morphology, enabling a unified view of waveform structure and rhythm. RhythmBERT is pretrained on approximately 800,000 unlabeled ECG recordings with a masked prediction objective, allowing it to learn contextual representations in a label-efficient manner. Evaluations show that despite using only a single lead, RhythmBERT achieves comparable or superior performance to strong 12-lead baselines. This generalization extends from prevalent conditions such as atrial fibrillation to clinically challenging cases such as subtle ST-T abnormalities and myocardial infarction. Our results suggest that considering ECG as structured language offers a scalable and physiologically aligned pathway for advancing cardiac analysis.
This project provides a comparative study of dynamic convolutional neural networks (CNNs) for various tasks, including image classification, segmentation, and time series analysis. Based on the ResNet-18 architecture, we compare five variants of CNNs: the vanilla CNN, the hard attention-based CNN, the soft attention-based CNN with local (pixel-wise) and global (image-wise) feature attention, and the omni-directional CNN (ODConv). Experiments on Tiny ImageNet, Pascal VOC, and the UCR Time Series Classification Archive illustrate that attention mechanisms and dynamic convolution methods consistently exceed conventional CNNs in accuracy, efficiency, and computational performance. ODConv was especially effective on morphologically complex images by being able to dynamically adjust to varying spatial patterns. Dynamic CNNs enhanced feature representation and cross-task generalization through adaptive kernel modulation. This project provides perspectives on advanced CNN design architecture for multiplexed data modalities and indicates promising directions in neural network engineering.
This study investigates a data-driven machine learning approach to predict membrane fouling in critically ill patients undergoing Continuous Renal Replacement Therapy (CRRT). Using time-series data from an ICU, 16 clinically selected features were identified to train predictive models. To ensure interpretability and enable reliable counterfactual analysis, the researchers adopted a tabular data approach rather than modeling temporal dependencies directly. Given the imbalance between fouling and non-fouling cases, the ADASYN oversampling technique was applied to improve minority class representation. Random Forest, XGBoost, and LightGBM models were tested, achieving balanced performance with 77.6% sensitivity and 96.3% specificity at a 10% rebalancing rate. Results remained robust across different forecasting horizons. Notably, the tabular approach outperformed LSTM recurrent neural networks, suggesting that explicit temporal modeling was not necessary for strong predictive performance. Feature selection further reduced the model to five key variables, improving simplicity and interpretability with minimal loss of accuracy. A Shapley value-based counterfactual analysis was applied to the best-performing model, successfully identifying minimal input changes capable of reversing fouling predictions. Overall, the findings support the viability of interpretable machine learning models for predicting membrane fouling during CRRT. The integration of prediction and counterfactual analysis offers practical clinical value, potentially guiding therapeutic adjustments to reduce fouling risk and improve patient management.
Driven by the increasingly complex and decision-oriented demands of time series analysis, we introduce the Semantic-Conditional Time Series Reasoning task, which extends conventional time series analysis beyond purely numerical modeling to incorporate contextual and semantic understanding. To further enhance the mode's reasoning capabilities on complex time series problems, we propose a two-round reinforcement learning framework: the first round strengthens the mode's perception of fundamental temporal primitives, while the second focuses on semantic-conditioned reasoning. The resulting model, KairosVL, achieves competitive performance across both synthetic and real-world tasks. Extensive experiments and ablation studies demonstrate that our framework not only boosts performance but also preserves intrinsic reasoning ability and significantly improves generalization to unseen scenarios. To summarize, our work highlights the potential of combining semantic reasoning with temporal modeling and provides a practical framework for real-world time series intelligence, which is in urgent demand.
The analysis of non-stationary time-series data requires insight into its local and global patterns with physical interpretability. However, traditional smoothing algorithms, such as B-splines, Savitzky-Golay filtering, and Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD), lack the ability to perform parametric optimization with guaranteed continuity. In this paper, we propose Functional Continuous Decomposition (FCD), a JAX-accelerated framework that performs parametric, continuous optimization on a wide range of mathematical functions. By using Levenberg-Marquardt optimization to achieve up to $C^1$ continuous fitting, FCD transforms raw time-series data into $M$ modes that capture different temporal patterns from short-term to long-term trends. Applications of FCD include physics, medicine, financial analysis, and machine learning, where it is commonly used for the analysis of signal temporal patterns, optimized parameters, derivatives, and integrals of decomposition. Furthermore, FCD can be applied for physical analysis and feature extraction with an average SRMSE of 0.735 per segment and a speed of 0.47s on full decomposition of 1,000 points. Finally, we demonstrate that a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) enhanced with FCD features, such as optimized function values, parameters, and derivatives, achieved 16.8% faster convergence and 2.5% higher accuracy over a standard CNN.
The term 'algorithmic fairness' is used to evaluate whether AI models operate fairly in both comparative (where fairness is understood as formal equality, such as "treat like cases as like") and non-comparative (where unfairness arises from the model's inaccuracy, arbitrariness, or inscrutability) contexts. Recent advances in multimodal large language models (MLLMs) are breaking new ground in multimodal understanding, reasoning, and generation; however, we argue that inconspicuous distortions arising from complex multimodal interaction dynamics can lead to systematic bias. The purpose of this position paper is twofold: first, it is intended to acquaint AI researchers with phenomenological explainable approaches that rely on the physical entities that the machine experiences during training/inference, as opposed to the traditional cognitivist symbolic account or metaphysical approaches; second, it is to state that this phenomenological doctrine will be practically useful for tackling algorithmic fairness issues in MLLMs. We develop a surrogate physics-based model that describes transformer dynamics (i.e., semantic network structure and self-/cross-attention) to analyze the dynamics of cross-modal bias in MLLM, which are not fully captured by conventional embedding- or representation-level analyses. We support this position through multi-input diagnostic experiments: 1) perturbation-based analyses of emotion classification using Qwen2.5-Omni and Gemma 3n, and 2) dynamical analysis of Lorenz chaotic time-series prediction through the physical surrogate. Across two architecturally distinct MLLMs, we show that multimodal inputs can reinforce modality dominance rather than mitigate it, as revealed by structured error-attractor patterns under systematic label perturbation, complemented by dynamical analysis.
Root cause analysis (RCA) in networked industrial systems, such as supply chains and power networks, is notoriously difficult due to unknown and dynamically evolving interdependencies among geographically distributed clients. These clients represent heterogeneous physical processes and industrial assets equipped with sensors that generate large volumes of nonlinear, high-dimensional, and heterogeneous IoT data. Classical RCA methods require partial or full knowledge of the system's dependency graph, which is rarely available in these complex networks. While federated learning (FL) offers a natural framework for decentralized settings, most existing FL methods assume homogeneous feature spaces and retrainable client models. These assumptions are not compatible with our problem setting. Different clients have different data features and often run fixed, proprietary models that cannot be modified. This paper presents a federated cross-client interdependency learning methodology for feature-partitioned, nonlinear time-series data, without requiring access to raw sensor streams or modifying proprietary client models. Each proprietary local client model is augmented with a Machine Learning (ML) model that encodes cross-client interdependencies. These ML models are coordinated via a global server that enforces representation consistency while preserving privacy through calibrated differential privacy noise. RCA is performed using model residuals and anomaly flags. We establish theoretical convergence guarantees and validate our approach on extensive simulations and a real-world industrial cybersecurity dataset.
Affine frequency division multiplexing (AFDM) has recently emerged as a resilient waveform candidate for high-mobility next-generation wireless systems. However, current literature mostly focuses on discrete time (DT) models, often overlooking effects and hardware non-idealities of actual continuous time (CT) signal generation. In this paper, we bridge this gap by developing a CT-analytical framework based on the affine Fourier series (AFS) representation, which allows us to demonstrate that strictly bandlimited pulses and subcarrier suppression strategies are essential to maintain the multicarrier structure of the signal. In addition, we derive the analytical power spectral density of AFDM and evaluate its spectral characteristics in comparison with other multicarrier schemes, considering the impact of realistic truncated pulse-shaping. Furthermore, we analyze the sensitivity of the CT model to phase noise, carrier frequency offset, and sampling jitter, providing a theoretical analysis of communication performance. Finally, we derive closed-form Cramér-Rao bounds for channel parameter estimation, showing that the chirped modulation peculiar of AFDM increases the estimation variance but enables the resolution of Doppler ambiguities. Our findings provide the necessary theoretical and practical foundations for the implementation of AFDM in realistic wireless transceivers.
In many applications, weighted networks are constructed based on time series data: each time series is associated to a vertex and edge weights are given by pairwise correlations. The result is a network whose edge dependency structure violates the assumptions of most common network models. Nonetheless, it is common to analyze these "correlation networks" using embedding methods derived from edge-independent network models, based on a belief that the edges are approximately independent. In this work, we put this modeling choice on firm theoretical ground. We show that when the time series are expressible in terms of a small number of Fourier basis elements (or in some other suitably-chosen basis), correlation networks correspond to latent space networks with dependent edge noise in which the vertex-level latent variables encode the basis coefficients. Further, we show that when time series are observed subject to noise, spectral embedding of the resulting noisy correlation network still recovers these true vertex-level latent representations under suitable assumptions. This characterization of embeddings as learning Fourier coefficients appears to be folklore in the signal processing community in the context of principal component analysis, but is, to the best of our knowledge, new to the statistical network analysis literature.