Enhancing Foundation Models for Time Series Forecasting via Wavelet-based Tokenization

How to best develop foundational models for time series forecasting remains an important open question. Tokenization is a crucial consideration in this effort: what is an effective discrete vocabulary for a real-valued sequential input? To address this question, we develop WaveToken, a wavelet-based tokenizer that allows models to learn complex representations directly in the space of time-localized frequencies. Our method first scales and decomposes the input time series, then thresholds and quantizes the wavelet coefficients, and finally pre-trains an autoregressive model to forecast coefficients for the forecast horizon. By decomposing coarse and fine structures in the inputs, wavelets provide an eloquent and compact language for time series forecasting that simplifies learning. Empirical results on a comprehensive benchmark, including 42 datasets for both in-domain and zero-shot settings, show that WaveToken: i) provides better accuracy than recently proposed foundation models for forecasting while using a much smaller vocabulary (1024 tokens), and performs on par or better than modern deep learning models trained specifically on each dataset; and ii) exhibits superior generalization capabilities, achieving the best average rank across all datasets for three complementary metrics. In addition, we show that our method can easily capture complex temporal patterns of practical relevance that are challenging for other recent pre-trained models, including trends, sparse spikes, and non-stationary time series with varying frequencies evolving over time.

Online Posterior Sampling with a Diffusion Prior

Posterior sampling in contextual bandits with a Gaussian prior can be implemented exactly or approximately using the Laplace approximation. The Gaussian prior is computationally efficient but it cannot describe complex distributions. In this work, we propose approximate posterior sampling algorithms for contextual bandits with a diffusion model prior. The key idea is to sample from a chain of approximate conditional posteriors, one for each stage of the reverse process, which are estimated in a closed form using the Laplace approximation. Our approximations are motivated by posterior sampling with a Gaussian prior, and inherit its simplicity and efficiency. They are asymptotically consistent and perform well empirically on a variety of contextual bandit problems.

Inference Optimization of Foundation Models on AI Accelerators

Powerful foundation models, including large language models (LLMs), with Transformer architectures have ushered in a new era of Generative AI across various industries. Industry and research community have witnessed a large number of new applications, based on those foundation models. Such applications include question and answer, customer services, image and video generation, and code completions, among others. However, as the number of model parameters reaches to hundreds of billions, their deployment incurs prohibitive inference costs and high latency in real-world scenarios. As a result, the demand for cost-effective and fast inference using AI accelerators is ever more higher. To this end, our tutorial offers a comprehensive discussion on complementary inference optimization techniques using AI accelerators. Beginning with an overview of basic Transformer architectures and deep learning system frameworks, we deep dive into system optimization techniques for fast and memory-efficient attention computations and discuss how they can be implemented efficiently on AI accelerators. Next, we describe architectural elements that are key for fast transformer inference. Finally, we examine various model compression and fast decoding strategies in the same context.

Collage: Light-Weight Low-Precision Strategy for LLM Training

Large models training is plagued by the intense compute cost and limited hardware memory. A practical solution is low-precision representation but is troubled by loss in numerical accuracy and unstable training rendering the model less useful. We argue that low-precision floating points can perform well provided the error is properly compensated at the critical locations in the training process. We propose Collage which utilizes multi-component float representation in low-precision to accurately perform operations with numerical errors accounted. To understand the impact of imprecision to training, we propose a simple and novel metric which tracks the lost information during training as well as differentiates various precision strategies. Our method works with commonly used low-precision such as half-precision ($16$-bit floating points) and can be naturally extended to work with even lower precision such as $8$-bit. Experimental results show that pre-training using Collage removes the requirement of using $32$-bit floating-point copies of the model and attains similar/better training performance compared to $(16, 32)$-bit mixed-precision strategy, with up to $3.7\times$ speedup and $\sim 15\%$ to $23\%$ less memory usage in practice.

Variance-reduced Zeroth-Order Methods for Fine-Tuning Language Models

Fine-tuning language models (LMs) has demonstrated success in a wide array of downstream tasks. However, as LMs are scaled up, the memory requirements for backpropagation become prohibitively high. Zeroth-order (ZO) optimization methods can leverage memory-efficient forward passes to estimate gradients. More recently, MeZO, an adaptation of ZO-SGD, has been shown to consistently outperform zero-shot and in-context learning when combined with suitable task prompts. In this work, we couple ZO methods with variance reduction techniques to enhance stability and convergence for inference-based LM fine-tuning. We introduce Memory-Efficient Zeroth-Order Stochastic Variance-Reduced Gradient (MeZO-SVRG) and demonstrate its efficacy across multiple LM fine-tuning tasks, eliminating the reliance on task-specific prompts. Evaluated across a range of both masked and autoregressive LMs on benchmark GLUE tasks, MeZO-SVRG outperforms MeZO with up to 20% increase in test accuracies in both full- and partial-parameter fine-tuning settings. MeZO-SVRG benefits from reduced computation time as it often surpasses MeZO's peak test accuracy with a $2\times$ reduction in GPU-hours. MeZO-SVRG significantly reduces the required memory footprint compared to first-order SGD, i.e. by $2\times$ for autoregressive models. Our experiments highlight that MeZO-SVRG's memory savings progressively improve compared to SGD with larger batch sizes.

Theoretical Guarantees of Learning Ensembling Strategies with Applications to Time Series Forecasting

Ensembling is among the most popular tools in machine learning (ML) due to its effectiveness in minimizing variance and thus improving generalization. Most ensembling methods for black-box base learners fall under the umbrella of "stacked generalization," namely training an ML algorithm that takes the inferences from the base learners as input. While stacking has been widely applied in practice, its theoretical properties are poorly understood. In this paper, we prove a novel result, showing that choosing the best stacked generalization from a (finite or finite-dimensional) family of stacked generalizations based on cross-validated performance does not perform "much worse" than the oracle best. Our result strengthens and significantly extends the results in Van der Laan et al. (2007). Inspired by the theoretical analysis, we further propose a particular family of stacked generalizations in the context of probabilistic forecasting, each one with a different sensitivity for how much the ensemble weights are allowed to vary across items, timestamps in the forecast horizon, and quantiles. Experimental results demonstrate the performance gain of the proposed method.

Testing Causality for High Dimensional Data

Determining causal relationship between high dimensional observations are among the most important tasks in scientific discoveries. In this paper, we revisited the \emph{linear trace method}, a technique proposed in~\citep{janzing2009telling,zscheischler2011testing} to infer the causal direction between two random variables of high dimensions. We strengthen the existing results significantly by providing an improved tail analysis in addition to extending the results to nonlinear trace functionals with sharper confidence bounds under certain distributional assumptions. We obtain our results by interpreting the trace estimator in the causal regime as a function over random orthogonal matrices, where the concentration of Lipschitz functions over such space could be applied. We additionally propose a novel ridge-regularized variant of the estimator in \cite{zscheischler2011testing}, and give provable bounds relating the ridge-estimated terms to their ground-truth counterparts. We support our theoretical results with encouraging experiments on synthetic datasets, more prominently, under high-dimension low sample size regime.

Adaptive Sampling for Probabilistic Forecasting under Distribution Shift

The world is not static: This causes real-world time series to change over time through external, and potentially disruptive, events such as macroeconomic cycles or the COVID-19 pandemic. We present an adaptive sampling strategy that selects the part of the time series history that is relevant for forecasting. We achieve this by learning a discrete distribution over relevant time steps by Bayesian optimization. We instantiate this idea with a two-step method that is pre-trained with uniform sampling and then training a lightweight adaptive architecture with adaptive sampling. We show with synthetic and real-world experiments that this method adapts to distribution shift and significantly reduces the forecasting error of the base model for three out of five datasets.

First De-Trend then Attend: Rethinking Attention for Time-Series Forecasting

Transformer-based models have gained large popularity and demonstrated promising results in long-term time-series forecasting in recent years. In addition to learning attention in time domain, recent works also explore learning attention in frequency domains (e.g., Fourier domain, wavelet domain), given that seasonal patterns can be better captured in these domains. In this work, we seek to understand the relationships between attention models in different time and frequency domains. Theoretically, we show that attention models in different domains are equivalent under linear conditions (i.e., linear kernel to attention scores). Empirically, we analyze how attention models of different domains show different behaviors through various synthetic experiments with seasonality, trend and noise, with emphasis on the role of softmax operation therein. Both these theoretical and empirical analyses motivate us to propose a new method: TDformer (Trend Decomposition Transformer), that first applies seasonal-trend decomposition, and then additively combines an MLP which predicts the trend component with Fourier attention which predicts the seasonal component to obtain the final prediction. Extensive experiments on benchmark time-series forecasting datasets demonstrate that TDformer achieves state-of-the-art performance against existing attention-based models.

Towards Robust Multivariate Time-Series Forecasting: Adversarial Attacks and Defense Mechanisms

As deep learning models have gradually become the main workhorse of time series forecasting, the potential vulnerability under adversarial attacks to forecasting and decision system accordingly has emerged as a main issue in recent years. Albeit such behaviors and defense mechanisms started to be investigated for the univariate time series forecasting, there are still few studies regarding the multivariate forecasting which is often preferred due to its capacity to encode correlations between different time series. In this work, we study and design adversarial attack on multivariate probabilistic forecasting models, taking into consideration attack budget constraints and the correlation architecture between multiple time series. Specifically, we investigate a sparse indirect attack that hurts the prediction of an item (time series) by only attacking the history of a small number of other items to save attacking cost. In order to combat these attacks, we also develop two defense strategies. First, we adopt randomized smoothing to multivariate time series scenario and verify its effectiveness via empirical experiments. Second, we leverage a sparse attacker to enable end-to-end adversarial training that delivers robust probabilistic forecasters. Extensive experiments on real dataset confirm that our attack schemes are powerful and our defend algorithms are more effective compared with other baseline defense mechanisms.