Perplexity Cannot Always Tell Right from Wrong

Perplexity -- a function measuring a model's overall level of "surprise" when encountering a particular output -- has gained significant traction in recent years, both as a loss function and as a simple-to-compute metric of model quality. Prior studies have pointed out several limitations of perplexity, often from an empirical manner. Here we leverage recent results on Transformer continuity to show in a rigorous manner how perplexity may be an unsuitable metric for model selection. Specifically, we prove that, if there is any sequence that a compact decoder-only Transformer model predicts accurately and confidently -- a necessary pre-requisite for strong generalisation -- it must imply existence of another sequence with very low perplexity, but not predicted correctly by that same model. Further, by analytically studying iso-perplexity plots, we find that perplexity will not always select for the more accurate model -- rather, any increase in model confidence must be accompanied by a commensurate rise in accuracy for the new model to be selected.

Distributional AGI Safety

AI safety and alignment research has predominantly been focused on methods for safeguarding individual AI systems, resting on the assumption of an eventual emergence of a monolithic Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). The alternative AGI emergence hypothesis, where general capability levels are first manifested through coordination in groups of sub-AGI individual agents with complementary skills and affordances, has received far less attention. Here we argue that this patchwork AGI hypothesis needs to be given serious consideration, and should inform the development of corresponding safeguards and mitigations. The rapid deployment of advanced AI agents with tool-use capabilities and the ability to communicate and coordinate makes this an urgent safety consideration. We therefore propose a framework for distributional AGI safety that moves beyond evaluating and aligning individual agents. This framework centers on the design and implementation of virtual agentic sandbox economies (impermeable or semi-permeable), where agent-to-agent transactions are governed by robust market mechanisms, coupled with appropriate auditability, reputation management, and oversight to mitigate collective risks.

Societal and technological progress as sewing an ever-growing, ever-changing, patchy, and polychrome quilt

Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems are increasingly placed in positions where their decisions have real consequences, e.g., moderating online spaces, conducting research, and advising on policy. Ensuring they operate in a safe and ethically acceptable fashion is thus critical. However, most solutions have been a form of one-size-fits-all "alignment". We are worried that such systems, which overlook enduring moral diversity, will spark resistance, erode trust, and destabilize our institutions. This paper traces the underlying problem to an often-unstated Axiom of Rational Convergence: the idea that under ideal conditions, rational agents will converge in the limit of conversation on a single ethics. Treating that premise as both optional and doubtful, we propose what we call the appropriateness framework: an alternative approach grounded in conflict theory, cultural evolution, multi-agent systems, and institutional economics. The appropriateness framework treats persistent disagreement as the normal case and designs for it by applying four principles: (1) contextual grounding, (2) community customization, (3) continual adaptation, and (4) polycentric governance. We argue here that adopting these design principles is a good way to shift the main alignment metaphor from moral unification to a more productive metaphor of conflict management, and that taking this step is both desirable and urgent.

Wanting to be Understood

This paper explores an intrinsic motivation for mutual awareness, hypothesizing that humans possess a fundamental drive to understand and to be understood even in the absence of extrinsic rewards. Through simulations of the perceptual crossing paradigm, we explore the effect of various internal reward functions in reinforcement learning agents. The drive to understand is implemented as an active inference type artificial curiosity reward, whereas the drive to be understood is implemented through intrinsic rewards for imitation, influence/impressionability, and sub-reaction time anticipation of the other. Results indicate that while artificial curiosity alone does not lead to a preference for social interaction, rewards emphasizing reciprocal understanding successfully drive agents to prioritize interaction. We demonstrate that this intrinsic motivation can facilitate cooperation in tasks where only one agent receives extrinsic reward for the behaviour of the other.

A theory of appropriateness with applications to generative artificial intelligence

What is appropriateness? Humans navigate a multi-scale mosaic of interlocking notions of what is appropriate for different situations. We act one way with our friends, another with our family, and yet another in the office. Likewise for AI, appropriate behavior for a comedy-writing assistant is not the same as appropriate behavior for a customer-service representative. What determines which actions are appropriate in which contexts? And what causes these standards to change over time? Since all judgments of AI appropriateness are ultimately made by humans, we need to understand how appropriateness guides human decision making in order to properly evaluate AI decision making and improve it. This paper presents a theory of appropriateness: how it functions in human society, how it may be implemented in the brain, and what it means for responsible deployment of generative AI technology.

TRecViT: A Recurrent Video Transformer

We propose a novel block for video modelling. It relies on a time-space-channel factorisation with dedicated blocks for each dimension: gated linear recurrent units (LRUs) perform information mixing over time, self-attention layers perform mixing over space, and MLPs over channels. The resulting architecture TRecViT performs well on sparse and dense tasks, trained in supervised or self-supervised regimes. Notably, our model is causal and outperforms or is on par with a pure attention model ViViT-L on large scale video datasets (SSv2, Kinetics400), while having $3\times$ less parameters, $12\times$ smaller memory footprint, and $5\times$ lower FLOPs count. Code and checkpoints will be made available online at https://github.com/google-deepmind/trecvit.

Neural Compression of Atmospheric States

Atmospheric states derived from reanalysis comprise a substantial portion of weather and climate simulation outputs. Many stakeholders -- such as researchers, policy makers, and insurers -- use this data to better understand the earth system and guide policy decisions. Atmospheric states have also received increased interest as machine learning approaches to weather prediction have shown promising results. A key issue for all audiences is that dense time series of these high-dimensional states comprise an enormous amount of data, precluding all but the most well resourced groups from accessing and using historical data and future projections. To address this problem, we propose a method for compressing atmospheric states using methods from the neural network literature, adapting spherical data to processing by conventional neural architectures through the use of the area-preserving HEALPix projection. We investigate two model classes for building neural compressors: the hyperprior model from the neural image compression literature and recent vector-quantised models. We show that both families of models satisfy the desiderata of small average error, a small number of high-error reconstructed pixels, faithful reproduction of extreme events such as hurricanes and heatwaves, preservation of the spectral power distribution across spatial scales. We demonstrate compression ratios in excess of 1000x, with compression and decompression at a rate of approximately one second per global atmospheric state.

Genie: Generative Interactive Environments

We introduce Genie, the first generative interactive environment trained in an unsupervised manner from unlabelled Internet videos. The model can be prompted to generate an endless variety of action-controllable virtual worlds described through text, synthetic images, photographs, and even sketches. At 11B parameters, Genie can be considered a foundation world model. It is comprised of a spatiotemporal video tokenizer, an autoregressive dynamics model, and a simple and scalable latent action model. Genie enables users to act in the generated environments on a frame-by-frame basis despite training without any ground-truth action labels or other domain-specific requirements typically found in the world model literature. Further the resulting learned latent action space facilitates training agents to imitate behaviors from unseen videos, opening the path for training generalist agents of the future.

Generative agent-based modeling with actions grounded in physical, social, or digital space using Concordia

Agent-based modeling has been around for decades, and applied widely across the social and natural sciences. The scope of this research method is now poised to grow dramatically as it absorbs the new affordances provided by Large Language Models (LLM)s. Generative Agent-Based Models (GABM) are not just classic Agent-Based Models (ABM)s where the agents talk to one another. Rather, GABMs are constructed using an LLM to apply common sense to situations, act "reasonably", recall common semantic knowledge, produce API calls to control digital technologies like apps, and communicate both within the simulation and to researchers viewing it from the outside. Here we present Concordia, a library to facilitate constructing and working with GABMs. Concordia makes it easy to construct language-mediated simulations of physically- or digitally-grounded environments. Concordia agents produce their behavior using a flexible component system which mediates between two fundamental operations: LLM calls and associative memory retrieval. A special agent called the Game Master (GM), which was inspired by tabletop role-playing games, is responsible for simulating the environment where the agents interact. Agents take actions by describing what they want to do in natural language. The GM then translates their actions into appropriate implementations. In a simulated physical world, the GM checks the physical plausibility of agent actions and describes their effects. In digital environments simulating technologies such as apps and services, the GM may handle API calls to integrate with external tools such as general AI assistants (e.g., Bard, ChatGPT), and digital apps (e.g., Calendar, Email, Search, etc.). Concordia was designed to support a wide array of applications both in scientific research and for evaluating performance of real digital services by simulating users and/or generating synthetic data.

Solving MaxSAT with Matrix Multiplication

We propose an incomplete algorithm for Maximum Satisfiability (MaxSAT) specifically designed to run on neural network accelerators such as GPUs and TPUs. Given a MaxSAT problem instance in conjunctive normal form, our procedure constructs a Restricted Boltzmann Machine (RBM) with an equilibrium distribution wherein the probability of a Boolean assignment is exponential in the number of clauses it satisfies. Block Gibbs sampling is used to stochastically search the space of assignments with parallel Markov chains. Since matrix multiplication is the main computational primitive for block Gibbs sampling in an RBM, our approach leads to an elegantly simple algorithm (40 lines of JAX) well-suited for neural network accelerators. Theoretical results about RBMs guarantee that the required number of visible and hidden units of the RBM scale only linearly with the number of variables and constant-sized clauses in the MaxSAT instance, ensuring that the computational cost of a Gibbs step scales reasonably with the instance size. Search throughput can be increased by batching parallel chains within a single accelerator as well as by distributing them across multiple accelerators. As a further enhancement, a heuristic based on unit propagation running on CPU is periodically applied to the sampled assignments. Our approach, which we term RbmSAT, is a new design point in the algorithm-hardware co-design space for MaxSAT. We present timed results on a subset of problem instances from the annual MaxSAT Evaluation's Incomplete Unweighted Track for the years 2018 to 2021. When allotted the same running time and CPU compute budget (but no TPUs), RbmSAT outperforms other participating solvers on problems drawn from three out of the four years' competitions. Given the same running time on a TPU cluster for which RbmSAT is uniquely designed, it outperforms all solvers on problems drawn from all four years.