Beyond Global Divergences: A Local-Mass Perspective on Bayesian Inference

Global objectives, such as KL divergence and ELBO, are widely used in Bayesian inference for measuring distributional discrepancy. This paper studies their local-mass behaviour that is not directly captured by such objectives. We introduce and use two mathematical tools: (1) Mass Index for recording the polynomial and logarithmic decay scales of local mass, and (2) regularised extended KL (RE-KL), a set-localised divergence that can be formulated in the presence of singular components. Mass Indices help characterise how Bayesian updating changes local mass: (1) power-log likelihood factors shift it explicitly, and (2) parameter-dependent supports, or their smooth softenings, may change the local scale through the amount of mass that remains near the parameter value. Using local RE-KL, we prove absolute, relative, and directional inequalities for comparing local small-ball masses under the two KL directions. Together, these results provide a local theoretical account of local mass behaviour. Experiments provide controlled illustrations of the local behaviour. Code is available at https://github.com/Forsythia0604/Local-Mass-Framework.

DeepSWIP: Quotient-WMC Counterfactuals for Neural Probabilistic Logic Programs

Neurosymbolic systems such as DeepProbLog combine neural perception with probabilistic logic, but standard inference is associational. Counterfactual reasoning additionally requires a causal semantics for interventions and evidence. We introduce DeepSWIP, a single-world counterfactual semantics for DeepProbLog programs. Using neural materialization, we reduce fixed-context neural predicates to ordinary ProbLog choices, apply Single World Intervention Programs (SWIPs), and compute counterfactuals by weighted model counting (WMC) over a single transformed program. Under finite grounding and unique-supported-model assumptions, DeepSWIP is exact relative to the learned materialized FCM. The standard quotient-WMC form of ProbLog conditionals identifies active neural probabilities and explains intervention cleaning, calibration sensitivity, and rare-evidence instability. Experiments on MPI3D confirm the transformation against a DeepTwin construction against 12,000 queries, as predicted and a 2.14$\times$ inference speedup from avoiding the Twin's endogenous duplication. A SUMO HOV experiment shows that neural calibration degradation biases plug-in estimates, while a correctly scoped randomized-policy AIPW estimator removes most first-order bias for population mean and ATE estimands. Code is at https://github.com/saibib/deep_SWIP.

DeXposure-Claw: An Agentic System for DeFi Risk Supervision

Decentralized finance exposes supervisors to fast-moving, networked credit risks. General-purpose LLM agents fit this setting poorly: they over-read weak evidence and recommend high-stakes interventions, while existing evaluations offer no regulator-aligned way to measure the resulting false alarms. We introduce DeXposure-Claw, a forecast-grounded agentic supervision system that routes LLM decisions through structured evidence: (1) DeXposure-FM, a graph time-series foundation model, forecasts future exposure networks; (2) deterministic monitors and stress scenarios then turn those forecasts into typed alerts, attribution signals, and scenario evidence; and (3) data-health and confidence gates constrain escalation before DeXposure-Claw emits auditable supervisory tickets with rationales. We further develop DeXposure-Bench, a six-axis evaluation harness, whose decision axis scores tickets against a regulator-aligned absolute-loss ground truth and an explicit false-intervention rate. Experiments on five years of weekly real data fully support our system. Code is at https://github.com/EVIEHub/DeXposure-Claw.

Physics-Aligned Canonical Equivariant Fourier Neural Operator under Symmetry-Induced Shifts

Neural operators approximate PDE solution maps, but they need not respect the symmetries of the governing equation. In out-of-distribution (OOD) regimes, a standard neural operator must often learn coordinate alignment and physical evolution within a single map, which can hurt generalization. We use known continuous symmetries of evolution equations on periodic domains to separate these two roles. We propose the Physics-Aligned Canonical Equivariant Fourier Neural Operator (PACE-FNO), which estimates the input frame with a Lie-algebra coordinate estimator, maps the field to a reference frame, applies a standard Fourier Neural Operator (FNO), and restores the prediction to the target frame. We train alignment and operator prediction jointly using bounded symmetry perturbations, with an optional low-dimensional refinement step that updates the estimated frame at inference. Equivariance is enforced by the input and output transformations, while the FNO architecture remains unchanged. Across 1-D and 2-D Burgers, shallow-water, and Navier-Stokes equations on periodic domains, PACE-FNO matches the in-distribution (ID) accuracy of standard neural operators and reduces out-of-distribution (OOD) relative error by up to 12x over FNO with symmetry augmentation (FNO+Aug) under translations and Galilean shifts, with smaller gains for coupled rotation-translation shifts. Ablations show that aligning the input and restoring the output frame account for most OOD gains; inference-time refinement provides a smaller correction.

Efficient Counterfactual Reasoning in ProbLog via Single World Intervention Programs

Probabilistic Logic Programming (PLP) languages, like ProbLog, naturally support reasoning under uncertainty, while maintaining a declarative and interpretable framework. Meanwhile, counterfactual reasoning (i.e., answering ``what if'' questions) is critical for ensuring AI systems are robust and trustworthy; however, integrating this capability into PLP can be computationally prohibitive and unstable in accuracy. This paper addresses this challenge, by proposing an efficient program transformation for counterfactuals as Single World Intervention Programs (SWIPs) in ProbLog. By systematically splitting ProbLog clauses to observed and fixed components relevant to a counterfactual, we create a transformed program that (1) does not asymptotically exceed the computational complexity of existing methods, and is strictly smaller in common cases, and (2) reduces counterfactual reasoning to marginal inference over a simpler program. We formally prove the correctness of our approach, which relies on a weaker set independence assumptions and is consistent with conditional independencies, showing the resulting marginal probabilities match the counterfactual distributions of the underlying Structural Causal Model in wide domains. Our method achieves a 35\% reduction in inference time versus existing methods in extensive experiments. This work makes complex counterfactual reasoning more computationally tractable and reliable, providing a crucial step towards developing more robust and explainable AI systems. The code is at https://github.com/EVIEHub/swip.

Integrating LTL Constraints into PPO for Safe Reinforcement Learning

This paper proposes Proximal Policy Optimization with Linear Temporal Logic Constraints (PPO-LTL), a framework that integrates safety constraints written in LTL into PPO for safe reinforcement learning. LTL constraints offer rigorous representations of complex safety requirements, such as regulations that broadly exist in robotics, enabling systematic monitoring of safety requirements. Violations against LTL constraints are monitored by limit-deterministic Büchi automata, and then translated by a logic-to-cost mechanism into penalty signals. The signals are further employed for guiding the policy optimization via the Lagrangian scheme. Extensive experiments on the Zones and CARLA environments show that our PPO-LTL can consistently reduce safety violations, while maintaining competitive performance, against the state-of-the-art methods. The code is at https://github.com/EVIEHub/PPO-LTL.

Generalisation of RLHF under Reward Shift and Clipped KL Regularisation

Alignment and adaptation in large language models heavily rely on reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF); yet, theoretical understanding of its generalisability remains premature, especially when the learned reward could shift, and the KL control is estimated and clipped. To address this issue, we develop generalisation theory for RLHF that explicitly accounts for (1) \emph{reward shift}: reward models are trained on preference data from earlier or mixed behaviour policies while RLHF optimises the current policy on its own rollouts; and (2) \emph{clipped KL regularisation}: the KL regulariser is estimated from sampled log-probability ratios and then clipped for stabilisation, resulting in an error to RLHF. We present generalisation bounds for RLHF, suggesting that the generalisation error stems from a sampling error from prompts and rollouts, a reward shift error, and a KL clipping error. We also discuss special cases of (1) initialising RLHF parameters with a uniform prior over a finite space, and (2) training RLHF by stochastic gradient descent, as an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. The theory yields practical implications in (1) optimal KL clipping threshold, and (2) budget allocation in prompts, rollouts, and preference data.

Near-Constant Strong Violation and Last-Iterate Convergence for Online CMDPs via Decaying Safety Margins

We study safe online reinforcement learning in Constrained Markov Decision Processes (CMDPs) under strong regret and violation metrics, which forbid error cancellation over time. Existing primal-dual methods that achieve sublinear strong reward regret inevitably incur growing strong constraint violation or are restricted to average-iterate convergence due to inherent oscillations. To address these limitations, we propose the Flexible safety Domain Optimization via Margin-regularized Exploration (FlexDOME) algorithm, the first to provably achieve near-constant $\tilde{O}(1)$ strong constraint violation alongside sublinear strong regret and non-asymptotic last-iterate convergence. FlexDOME incorporates time-varying safety margins and regularization terms into the primal-dual framework. Our theoretical analysis relies on a novel term-wise asymptotic dominance strategy, where the safety margin is rigorously scheduled to asymptotically majorize the functional decay rates of the optimization and statistical errors, thereby clamping cumulative violations to a near-constant level. Furthermore, we establish non-asymptotic last-iterate convergence guarantees via a policy-dual Lyapunov argument. Experiments corroborate our theoretical findings.

Rationality Measurement and Theory for Reinforcement Learning Agents

This paper proposes a suite of rationality measures and associated theory for reinforcement learning agents, a property increasingly critical yet rarely explored. We define an action in deployment to be perfectly rational if it maximises the hidden true value function in the steepest direction. The expected value discrepancy of a policy's actions against their rational counterparts, culminating over the trajectory in deployment, is defined to be expected rational risk; an empirical average version in training is also defined. Their difference, termed as rational risk gap, is decomposed into (1) an extrinsic component caused by environment shifts between training and deployment, and (2) an intrinsic one due to the algorithm's generalisability in a dynamic environment. They are upper bounded by, respectively, (1) the $1$-Wasserstein distance between transition kernels and initial state distributions in training and deployment, and (2) the empirical Rademacher complexity of the value function class. Our theory suggests hypotheses on the benefits from regularisers (including layer normalisation, $\ell_2$ regularisation, and weight normalisation) and domain randomisation, as well as the harm from environment shifts. Experiments are in full agreement with these hypotheses. The code is available at https://github.com/EVIEHub/Rationality.

DeXposure-FM: A Time-series, Graph Foundation Model for Credit Exposures and Stability on Decentralized Financial Networks

Credit exposure in Decentralized Finance (DeFi) is often implicit and token-mediated, creating a dense web of inter-protocol dependencies. Thus, a shock to one token may result in significant and uncontrolled contagion effects. As the DeFi ecosystem becomes increasingly linked with traditional financial infrastructure through instruments, such as stablecoins, the risk posed by this dynamic demands more powerful quantification tools. We introduce DeXposure-FM, the first time-series, graph foundation model for measuring and forecasting inter-protocol credit exposure on DeFi networks, to the best of our knowledge. Employing a graph-tabular encoder, with pre-trained weight initialization, and multiple task-specific heads, DeXposure-FM is trained on the DeXposure dataset that has 43.7 million data entries, across 4,300+ protocols on 602 blockchains, covering 24,300+ unique tokens. The training is operationalized for credit-exposure forecasting, predicting the joint dynamics of (1) protocol-level flows, and (2) the topology and weights of credit-exposure links. The DeXposure-FM is empirically validated on two machine learning benchmarks; it consistently outperforms the state-of-the-art approaches, including a graph foundation model and temporal graph neural networks. DeXposure-FM further produces financial economics tools that support macroprudential monitoring and scenario-based DeFi stress testing, by enabling protocol-level systemic-importance scores, sector-level spillover and concentration measures via a forecast-then-measure pipeline. Empirical verification fully supports our financial economics tools. The model and code have been publicly available. Model: https://huggingface.co/EVIEHub/DeXposure-FM. Code: https://github.com/EVIEHub/DeXposure-FM.