Deconfounding Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting is a critical task in various domains, where accurate predictions can drive informed decision-making. Traditional forecasting methods often rely on current observations of variables to predict future outcomes, typically overlooking the influence of latent confounders, unobserved variables that simultaneously affect both the predictors and the target outcomes. This oversight can introduce bias and degrade the performance of predictive models. In this study, we address this challenge by proposing an enhanced forecasting approach that incorporates representations of latent confounders derived from historical data. By integrating these confounders into the predictive process, our method aims to improve the accuracy and robustness of time series forecasts. The proposed approach is demonstrated through its application to climate science data, showing significant improvements over traditional methods that do not account for confounders.

Linking Model Intervention to Causal Interpretation in Model Explanation

Intervention intuition is often used in model explanation where the intervention effect of a feature on the outcome is quantified by the difference of a model prediction when the feature value is changed from the current value to the baseline value. Such a model intervention effect of a feature is inherently association. In this paper, we will study the conditions when an intuitive model intervention effect has a causal interpretation, i.e., when it indicates whether a feature is a direct cause of the outcome. This work links the model intervention effect to the causal interpretation of a model. Such an interpretation capability is important since it indicates whether a machine learning model is trustworthy to domain experts. The conditions also reveal the limitations of using a model intervention effect for causal interpretation in an environment with unobserved features. Experiments on semi-synthetic datasets have been conducted to validate theorems and show the potential for using the model intervention effect for model interpretation.

TSI: A Multi-View Representation Learning Approach for Time Series Forecasting

As the growing demand for long sequence time-series forecasting in real-world applications, such as electricity consumption planning, the significance of time series forecasting becomes increasingly crucial across various domains. This is highlighted by recent advancements in representation learning within the field. This study introduces a novel multi-view approach for time series forecasting that innovatively integrates trend and seasonal representations with an Independent Component Analysis (ICA)-based representation. Recognizing the limitations of existing methods in representing complex and high-dimensional time series data, this research addresses the challenge by combining TS (trend and seasonality) and ICA (independent components) perspectives. This approach offers a holistic understanding of time series data, going beyond traditional models that often miss nuanced, nonlinear relationships. The efficacy of TSI model is demonstrated through comprehensive testing on various benchmark datasets, where it shows superior performance over current state-of-the-art models, particularly in multivariate forecasting. This method not only enhances the accuracy of forecasting but also contributes significantly to the field by providing a more in-depth understanding of time series data. The research which uses ICA for a view lays the groundwork for further exploration and methodological advancements in time series forecasting, opening new avenues for research and practical applications.

An Item Response Theory-based R Module for Algorithm Portfolio Analysis

Experimental evaluation is crucial in AI research, especially for assessing algorithms across diverse tasks. Many studies often evaluate a limited set of algorithms, failing to fully understand their strengths and weaknesses within a comprehensive portfolio. This paper introduces an Item Response Theory (IRT) based analysis tool for algorithm portfolio evaluation called AIRT-Module. Traditionally used in educational psychometrics, IRT models test question difficulty and student ability using responses to test questions. Adapting IRT to algorithm evaluation, the AIRT-Module contains a Shiny web application and the R package airt. AIRT-Module uses algorithm performance measures to compute anomalousness, consistency, and difficulty limits for an algorithm and the difficulty of test instances. The strengths and weaknesses of algorithms are visualised using the difficulty spectrum of the test instances. AIRT-Module offers a detailed understanding of algorithm capabilities across varied test instances, thus enhancing comprehensive AI method assessment. It is available at https://sevvandi.shinyapps.io/AIRT/ .

Causal Effect Estimation using identifiable Variational AutoEncoder with Latent Confounders and Post-Treatment Variables

Estimating causal effects from observational data is challenging, especially in the presence of latent confounders. Much work has been done on addressing this challenge, but most of the existing research ignores the bias introduced by the post-treatment variables. In this paper, we propose a novel method of joint Variational AutoEncoder (VAE) and identifiable Variational AutoEncoder (iVAE) for learning the representations of latent confounders and latent post-treatment variables from their proxy variables, termed CPTiVAE, to achieve unbiased causal effect estimation from observational data. We further prove the identifiability in terms of the representation of latent post-treatment variables. Extensive experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets demonstrate that the CPTiVAE outperforms the state-of-the-art methods in the presence of latent confounders and post-treatment variables. We further apply CPTiVAE to a real-world dataset to show its potential application.

Instrumental Variable Estimation for Causal Inference in Longitudinal Data with Time-Dependent Latent Confounders

Causal inference from longitudinal observational data is a challenging problem due to the difficulty in correctly identifying the time-dependent confounders, especially in the presence of latent time-dependent confounders. Instrumental variable (IV) is a powerful tool for addressing the latent confounders issue, but the traditional IV technique cannot deal with latent time-dependent confounders in longitudinal studies. In this work, we propose a novel Time-dependent Instrumental Factor Model (TIFM) for time-varying causal effect estimation from data with latent time-dependent confounders. At each time-step, the proposed TIFM method employs the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) architecture to infer latent IV, and then uses the inferred latent IV factor for addressing the confounding bias caused by the latent time-dependent confounders. We provide a theoretical analysis for the proposed TIFM method regarding causal effect estimation in longitudinal data. Extensive evaluation with synthetic datasets demonstrates the effectiveness of TIFM in addressing causal effect estimation over time. We further apply TIFM to a climate dataset to showcase the potential of the proposed method in tackling real-world problems.

Disentangled Latent Representation Learning for Tackling the Confounding M-Bias Problem in Causal Inference

In causal inference, it is a fundamental task to estimate the causal effect from observational data. However, latent confounders pose major challenges in causal inference in observational data, for example, confounding bias and M-bias. Recent data-driven causal effect estimators tackle the confounding bias problem via balanced representation learning, but assume no M-bias in the system, thus they fail to handle the M-bias. In this paper, we identify a challenging and unsolved problem caused by a variable that leads to confounding bias and M-bias simultaneously. To address this problem with co-occurring M-bias and confounding bias, we propose a novel Disentangled Latent Representation learning framework for learning latent representations from proxy variables for unbiased Causal effect Estimation (DLRCE) from observational data. Specifically, DLRCE learns three sets of latent representations from the measured proxy variables to adjust for the confounding bias and M-bias. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and three real-world datasets demonstrate that DLRCE significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art estimators in the case of the presence of both confounding bias and M-bias.

Conditional Instrumental Variable Regression with Representation Learning for Causal Inference

This paper studies the challenging problem of estimating causal effects from observational data, in the presence of unobserved confounders. The two-stage least square (TSLS) method and its variants with a standard instrumental variable (IV) are commonly used to eliminate confounding bias, including the bias caused by unobserved confounders, but they rely on the linearity assumption. Besides, the strict condition of unconfounded instruments posed on a standard IV is too strong to be practical. To address these challenging and practical problems of the standard IV method (linearity assumption and the strict condition), in this paper, we use a conditional IV (CIV) to relax the unconfounded instrument condition of standard IV and propose a non-linear CIV regression with Confounding Balancing Representation Learning, CBRL.CIV, for jointly eliminating the confounding bias from unobserved confounders and balancing the observed confounders, without the linearity assumption. We theoretically demonstrate the soundness of CBRL.CIV. Extensive experiments on synthetic and two real-world datasets show the competitive performance of CBRL.CIV against state-of-the-art IV-based estimators and superiority in dealing with the non-linear situation.

Causal Inference with Conditional Front-Door Adjustment and Identifiable Variational Autoencoder

An essential and challenging problem in causal inference is causal effect estimation from observational data. The problem becomes more difficult with the presence of unobserved confounding variables. The front-door adjustment is a practical approach for dealing with unobserved confounding variables. However, the restriction for the standard front-door adjustment is difficult to satisfy in practice. In this paper, we relax some of the restrictions by proposing the concept of conditional front-door (CFD) adjustment and develop the theorem that guarantees the causal effect identifiability of CFD adjustment. Furthermore, as it is often impossible for a CFD variable to be given in practice, it is desirable to learn it from data. By leveraging the ability of deep generative models, we propose CFDiVAE to learn the representation of the CFD adjustment variable directly from data with the identifiable Variational AutoEncoder and formally prove the model identifiability. Extensive experiments on synthetic datasets validate the effectiveness of CFDiVAE and its superiority over existing methods. The experiments also show that the performance of CFDiVAE is less sensitive to the causal strength of unobserved confounding variables. We further apply CFDiVAE to a real-world dataset to demonstrate its potential application.

Utilizing Semantic Textual Similarity for Clinical Survey Data Feature Selection

Survey data can contain a high number of features while having a comparatively low quantity of examples. Machine learning models that attempt to predict outcomes from survey data under these conditions can overfit and result in poor generalizability. One remedy to this issue is feature selection, which attempts to select an optimal subset of features to learn upon. A relatively unexplored source of information in the feature selection process is the usage of textual names of features, which may be semantically indicative of which features are relevant to a target outcome. The relationships between feature names and target names can be evaluated using language models (LMs) to produce semantic textual similarity (STS) scores, which can then be used to select features. We examine the performance using STS to select features directly and in the minimal-redundancy-maximal-relevance (mRMR) algorithm. The performance of STS as a feature selection metric is evaluated against preliminary survey data collected as a part of a clinical study on persistent post-surgical pain (PPSP). The results suggest that features selected with STS can result in higher performance models compared to traditional feature selection algorithms.