Deconfounding Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting is a critical task in various domains, where accurate predictions can drive informed decision-making. Traditional forecasting methods often rely on current observations of variables to predict future outcomes, typically overlooking the influence of latent confounders, unobserved variables that simultaneously affect both the predictors and the target outcomes. This oversight can introduce bias and degrade the performance of predictive models. In this study, we address this challenge by proposing an enhanced forecasting approach that incorporates representations of latent confounders derived from historical data. By integrating these confounders into the predictive process, our method aims to improve the accuracy and robustness of time series forecasts. The proposed approach is demonstrated through its application to climate science data, showing significant improvements over traditional methods that do not account for confounders.

World-Grounded Human Motion Recovery via Gravity-View Coordinates

We present a novel method for recovering world-grounded human motion from monocular video. The main challenge lies in the ambiguity of defining the world coordinate system, which varies between sequences. Previous approaches attempt to alleviate this issue by predicting relative motion in an autoregressive manner, but are prone to accumulating errors. Instead, we propose estimating human poses in a novel Gravity-View (GV) coordinate system, which is defined by the world gravity and the camera view direction. The proposed GV system is naturally gravity-aligned and uniquely defined for each video frame, largely reducing the ambiguity of learning image-pose mapping. The estimated poses can be transformed back to the world coordinate system using camera rotations, forming a global motion sequence. Additionally, the per-frame estimation avoids error accumulation in the autoregressive methods. Experiments on in-the-wild benchmarks demonstrate that our method recovers more realistic motion in both the camera space and world-grounded settings, outperforming state-of-the-art methods in both accuracy and speed. The code is available at https://zju3dv.github.io/gvhmr/.

Learning Coordinated Maneuver in Adversarial Environments

This paper aims to solve the coordination of a team of robots traversing a route in the presence of adversaries with random positions. Our goal is to minimize the overall cost of the team, which is determined by (i) the accumulated risk when robots stay in adversary-impacted zones and (ii) the mission completion time. During traversal, robots can reduce their speed and act as a `guard' (the slower, the better), which will decrease the risks certain adversary incurs. This leads to a trade-off between the robots' guarding behaviors and their travel speeds. The formulated problem is highly non-convex and cannot be efficiently solved by existing algorithms. Our approach includes a theoretical analysis of the robots' behaviors for the single-adversary case. As the scale of the problem expands, solving the optimal solution using optimization approaches is challenging, therefore, we employ reinforcement learning techniques by developing new encoding and policy-generating methods. Simulations demonstrate that our learning methods can efficiently produce team coordination behaviors. We discuss the reasoning behind these behaviors and explain why they reduce the overall team cost.

Bi-CL: A Reinforcement Learning Framework for Robots Coordination Through Bi-level Optimization

In multi-robot systems, achieving coordinated missions remains a significant challenge due to the coupled nature of coordination behaviors and the lack of global information for individual robots. To mitigate these challenges, this paper introduces a novel approach, Bi-level Coordination Learning (Bi-CL), that leverages a bi-level optimization structure within a centralized training and decentralized execution paradigm. Our bi-level reformulation decomposes the original problem into a reinforcement learning level with reduced action space, and an imitation learning level that gains demonstrations from a global optimizer. Both levels contribute to improved learning efficiency and scalability. We note that robots' incomplete information leads to mismatches between the two levels of learning models. To address this, Bi-CL further integrates an alignment penalty mechanism, aiming to minimize the discrepancy between the two levels without degrading their training efficiency. We introduce a running example to conceptualize the problem formulation and apply Bi-CL to two variations of this example: route-based and graph-based scenarios. Simulation results demonstrate that Bi-CL can learn more efficiently and achieve comparable performance with traditional multi-agent reinforcement learning baselines for multi-robot coordination.

Scaling Team Coordination on Graphs with Reinforcement Learning

This paper studies Reinforcement Learning (RL) techniques to enable team coordination behaviors in graph environments with support actions among teammates to reduce the costs of traversing certain risky edges in a centralized manner. While classical approaches can solve this non-standard multi-agent path planning problem by converting the original Environment Graph (EG) into a Joint State Graph (JSG) to implicitly incorporate the support actions, those methods do not scale well to large graphs and teams. To address this curse of dimensionality, we propose to use RL to enable agents to learn such graph traversal and teammate supporting behaviors in a data-driven manner. Specifically, through a new formulation of the team coordination on graphs with risky edges problem into Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with a novel state and action space, we investigate how RL can solve it in two paradigms: First, we use RL for a team of agents to learn how to coordinate and reach the goal with minimal cost on a single EG. We show that RL efficiently solves problems with up to 20/4 or 25/3 nodes/agents, using a fraction of the time needed for JSG to solve such complex problems; Second, we learn a general RL policy for any $N$-node EGs to produce efficient supporting behaviors. We present extensive experiments and compare our RL approaches against their classical counterparts.