Deconfounding Time Series Forecasting

Time series forecasting is a critical task in various domains, where accurate predictions can drive informed decision-making. Traditional forecasting methods often rely on current observations of variables to predict future outcomes, typically overlooking the influence of latent confounders, unobserved variables that simultaneously affect both the predictors and the target outcomes. This oversight can introduce bias and degrade the performance of predictive models. In this study, we address this challenge by proposing an enhanced forecasting approach that incorporates representations of latent confounders derived from historical data. By integrating these confounders into the predictive process, our method aims to improve the accuracy and robustness of time series forecasts. The proposed approach is demonstrated through its application to climate science data, showing significant improvements over traditional methods that do not account for confounders.

Expanding Chatbot Knowledge in Customer Service: Context-Aware Similar Question Generation Using Large Language Models

Reliable responses of service chatbots are often achieved by employing retrieval-based methods that restrict answers to a knowledge base comprising predefined question-answer pairs (QA pairs). To accommodate potential variations in how a customer's query may be expressed, it emerges as the favored solution to augment these QA pairs with similar questions that are possibly diverse while remaining semantic consistency. This augmentation task is known as Similar Question Generation (SQG). Traditional methods that heavily rely on human efforts or rule-based techniques suffer from limited diversity or significant semantic deviation from the source question, only capable of producing a finite number of useful questions. To address these limitations, we propose an SQG approach based on Large Language Models (LLMs), capable of producing a substantial number of diverse questions while maintaining semantic consistency to the source QA pair. This is achieved by leveraging LLMs' natural language understanding capability through fine-tuning with specially designed prompts. The experiments conducted on a real customer-service dataset demonstrate that our method surpasses baseline methods by a significant margin in terms of semantic diversity. Human evaluation further confirms that integrating the answer that reflects the customer's intention is crucial for increasing the number of generated questions that meet business requirements.

Neural-Bayesian Program Learning for Few-shot Dialogue Intent Parsing

With the growing importance of customer service in contemporary business, recognizing the intents behind service dialogues has become essential for the strategic success of enterprises. However, the nature of dialogue data varies significantly across different scenarios, and implementing an intent parser for a specific domain often involves tedious feature engineering and a heavy workload of data labeling. In this paper, we propose a novel Neural-Bayesian Program Learning model named Dialogue-Intent Parser (DI-Parser), which specializes in intent parsing under data-hungry settings and offers promising performance improvements. DI-Parser effectively utilizes data from multiple sources in a "Learning to Learn" manner and harnesses the "wisdom of the crowd" through few-shot learning capabilities on human-annotated datasets. Experimental results demonstrate that DI-Parser outperforms state-of-the-art deep learning models and offers practical advantages for industrial-scale applications.

Auto-Demo Prompting: Leveraging Generated Outputs as Demonstrations for Enhanced Batch Prompting

Batch prompting is a common technique in large language models (LLMs) used to process multiple inputs simultaneously, aiming to improve computational efficiency. However, as batch sizes increase, performance degradation often occurs due to the model's difficulty in handling lengthy context inputs. Existing methods that attempt to mitigate these issues rely solely on batch data arrangement and majority voting rather than improving the design of the batch prompt itself. In this paper, we address these limitations by proposing "Auto-Demo Prompting," a novel approach that leverages the question-output pairs from earlier questions within a batch as demonstrations for subsequent answer inference. We provide a formal theoretical analysis of how Auto-Demo Prompting functions within the autoregressive generation process of LLMs, illustrating how it utilizes prior outputs to optimize the model's internal representations. Our method effectively bridges the gap between batch prompting and few-shot prompting, enhancing performance with only a slight compromise in token usage. Experimental results across five NLP tasks demonstrate its effectiveness in mitigating performance degradation and occasionally outperforming single prompts. Furthermore, it opens new avenues for applying few-shot learning techniques, such as demonstration selection, within batch prompting, making it a robust solution for real-world applications.

InfantCryNet: A Data-driven Framework for Intelligent Analysis of Infant Cries

Understanding the meaning of infant cries is a significant challenge for young parents in caring for their newborns. The presence of background noise and the lack of labeled data present practical challenges in developing systems that can detect crying and analyze its underlying reasons. In this paper, we present a novel data-driven framework, "InfantCryNet," for accomplishing these tasks. To address the issue of data scarcity, we employ pre-trained audio models to incorporate prior knowledge into our model. We propose the use of statistical pooling and multi-head attention pooling techniques to extract features more effectively. Additionally, knowledge distillation and model quantization are applied to enhance model efficiency and reduce the model size, better supporting industrial deployment in mobile devices. Experiments on real-life datasets demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed framework, outperforming state-of-the-art baselines by 4.4% in classification accuracy. The model compression effectively reduces the model size by 7% without compromising performance and by up to 28% with only an 8% decrease in accuracy, offering practical insights for model selection and system design.

Pairwise Judgment Formulation for Semantic Embedding Model in Web Search

Semantic Embedding Model (SEM), a neural network-based Siamese architecture, is gaining momentum in information retrieval and natural language processing. In order to train SEM in a supervised fashion for Web search, the search engine query log is typically utilized to automatically formulate pairwise judgments as training data. Despite the growing application of semantic embeddings in the search engine industry, little work has been done on formulating effective pairwise judgments for training SEM. In this paper, we make the first in-depth investigation of a wide range of strategies for generating pairwise judgments for SEM. An interesting (perhaps surprising) discovery reveals that the conventional pairwise judgment formulation strategy wildly used in the field of pairwise Learning-to-Rank (LTR) is not necessarily effective for training SEM. Through a large-scale empirical study based on query logs and click-through activities from a major commercial search engine, we demonstrate the effective strategies for SEM and highlight the advantages of a hybrid heuristic (i.e., Clicked > Non-Clicked) in comparison to the atomic heuristics (e.g., Clicked > Skipped) in LTR. We conclude with best practices for training SEM and offer promising insights for future research.