Exploring the design space of deep-learning-based weather forecasting systems

Despite tremendous progress in developing deep-learning-based weather forecasting systems, their design space, including the impact of different design choices, is yet to be well understood. This paper aims to fill this knowledge gap by systematically analyzing these choices including architecture, problem formulation, pretraining scheme, use of image-based pretrained models, loss functions, noise injection, multi-step inputs, additional static masks, multi-step finetuning (including larger stride models), as well as training on a larger dataset. We study fixed-grid architectures such as UNet, fully convolutional architectures, and transformer-based models, along with grid-invariant architectures, including graph-based and operator-based models. Our results show that fixed-grid architectures outperform grid-invariant architectures, indicating a need for further architectural developments in grid-invariant models such as neural operators. We therefore propose a hybrid system that combines the strong performance of fixed-grid models with the flexibility of grid-invariant architectures. We further show that multi-step fine-tuning is essential for most deep-learning models to work well in practice, which has been a common practice in the past. Pretraining objectives degrade performance in comparison to supervised training, while image-based pretrained models provide useful inductive biases in some cases in comparison to training the model from scratch. Interestingly, we see a strong positive effect of using a larger dataset when training a smaller model as compared to training on a smaller dataset for longer. Larger models, on the other hand, primarily benefit from just an increase in the computational budget. We believe that these results will aid in the design of better weather forecasting systems in the future.

Dynamical Measure Transport and Neural PDE Solvers for Sampling

The task of sampling from a probability density can be approached as transporting a tractable density function to the target, known as dynamical measure transport. In this work, we tackle it through a principled unified framework using deterministic or stochastic evolutions described by partial differential equations (PDEs). This framework incorporates prior trajectory-based sampling methods, such as diffusion models or Schr\"odinger bridges, without relying on the concept of time-reversals. Moreover, it allows us to propose novel numerical methods for solving the transport task and thus sampling from complicated targets without the need for the normalization constant or data samples. We employ physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) to approximate the respective PDE solutions, implying both conceptional and computational advantages. In particular, PINNs allow for simulation- and discretization-free optimization and can be trained very efficiently, leading to significantly better mode coverage in the sampling task compared to alternative methods. Moreover, they can readily be fine-tuned with Gauss-Newton methods to achieve high accuracy in sampling.

Universal Functional Regression with Neural Operator Flows

Regression on function spaces is typically limited to models with Gaussian process priors. We introduce the notion of universal functional regression, in which we aim to learn a prior distribution over non-Gaussian function spaces that remains mathematically tractable for functional regression. To do this, we develop Neural Operator Flows (OpFlow), an infinite-dimensional extension of normalizing flows. OpFlow is an invertible operator that maps the (potentially unknown) data function space into a Gaussian process, allowing for exact likelihood estimation of functional point evaluations. OpFlow enables robust and accurate uncertainty quantification via drawing posterior samples of the Gaussian process and subsequently mapping them into the data function space. We empirically study the performance of OpFlow on regression and generation tasks with data generated from Gaussian processes with known posterior forms and non-Gaussian processes, as well as real-world earthquake seismograms with an unknown closed-form distribution.

Pretraining Codomain Attention Neural Operators for Solving Multiphysics PDEs

Existing neural operator architectures face challenges when solving multiphysics problems with coupled partial differential equations (PDEs), due to complex geometries, interactions between physical variables, and the lack of large amounts of high-resolution training data. To address these issues, we propose Codomain Attention Neural Operator (CoDA-NO), which tokenizes functions along the codomain or channel space, enabling self-supervised learning or pretraining of multiple PDE systems. Specifically, we extend positional encoding, self-attention, and normalization layers to the function space. CoDA-NO can learn representations of different PDE systems with a single model. We evaluate CoDA-NO's potential as a backbone for learning multiphysics PDEs over multiple systems by considering few-shot learning settings. On complex downstream tasks with limited data, such as fluid flow simulations and fluid-structure interactions, we found CoDA-NO to outperform existing methods on the few-shot learning task by over $36\%$. The code is available at https://github.com/ashiq24/CoDA-NO.

Neural Operators with Localized Integral and Differential Kernels

Neural operators learn mappings between function spaces, which is practical for learning solution operators of PDEs and other scientific modeling applications. Among them, the Fourier neural operator (FNO) is a popular architecture that performs global convolutions in the Fourier space. However, such global operations are often prone to over-smoothing and may fail to capture local details. In contrast, convolutional neural networks (CNN) can capture local features but are limited to training and inference at a single resolution. In this work, we present a principled approach to operator learning that can capture local features under two frameworks by learning differential operators and integral operators with locally supported kernels. Specifically, inspired by stencil methods, we prove that we obtain differential operators under an appropriate scaling of the kernel values of CNNs. To obtain local integral operators, we utilize suitable basis representations for the kernels based on discrete-continuous convolutions. Both these approaches preserve the properties of operator learning and, hence, the ability to predict at any resolution. Adding our layers to FNOs significantly improves their performance, reducing the relative L2-error by 34-72% in our experiments on turbulent 2D Navier-Stokes fluid flow and the spherical shallow water equations.

Calibrated Uncertainty Quantification for Operator Learning via Conformal Prediction

Operator learning has been increasingly adopted in scientific and engineering applications, many of which require calibrated uncertainty quantification. Since the output of operator learning is a continuous function, quantifying uncertainty simultaneously at all points in the domain is challenging. Current methods consider calibration at a single point or over one scalar function or make strong assumptions such as Gaussianity. We propose a risk-controlling quantile neural operator, a distribution-free, finite-sample functional calibration conformal prediction method. We provide a theoretical calibration guarantee on the coverage rate, defined as the expected percentage of points on the function domain whose true value lies within the predicted uncertainty ball. Empirical results on a 2D Darcy flow and a 3D car surface pressure prediction task validate our theoretical results, demonstrating calibrated coverage and efficient uncertainty bands outperforming baseline methods. In particular, on the 3D problem, our method is the only one that meets the target calibration percentage (percentage of test samples for which the uncertainty estimates are calibrated) of 98%.

Equivariant Graph Neural Operator for Modeling 3D Dynamics

Modeling the complex three-dimensional (3D) dynamics of relational systems is an important problem in the natural sciences, with applications ranging from molecular simulations to particle mechanics. Machine learning methods have achieved good success by learning graph neural networks to model spatial interactions. However, these approaches do not faithfully capture temporal correlations since they only model next-step predictions. In this work, we propose Equivariant Graph Neural Operator (EGNO), a novel and principled method that directly models dynamics as trajectories instead of just next-step prediction. Different from existing methods, EGNO explicitly learns the temporal evolution of 3D dynamics where we formulate the dynamics as a function over time and learn neural operators to approximate it. To capture the temporal correlations while keeping the intrinsic SE(3)-equivariance, we develop equivariant temporal convolutions parameterized in the Fourier space and build EGNO by stacking the Fourier layers over equivariant networks. EGNO is the first operator learning framework that is capable of modeling solution dynamics functions over time while retaining 3D equivariance. Comprehensive experiments in multiple domains, including particle simulations, human motion capture, and molecular dynamics, demonstrate the significantly superior performance of EGNO against existing methods, thanks to the equivariant temporal modeling.

Multi-Grid Tensorized Fourier Neural Operator for High-Resolution PDEs

Memory complexity and data scarcity have so far prohibited learning solution operators of partial differential equations (PDEs) at high resolutions. We address these limitations by introducing a new data efficient and highly parallelizable operator learning approach with reduced memory requirement and better generalization, called multi-grid tensorized neural operator (MG-TFNO). MG-TFNO scales to large resolutions by leveraging local and global structures of full-scale, real-world phenomena, through a decomposition of both the input domain and the operator's parameter space. Our contributions are threefold: i) we enable parallelization over input samples with a novel multi-grid-based domain decomposition, ii) we represent the parameters of the model in a high-order latent subspace of the Fourier domain, through a global tensor factorization, resulting in an extreme reduction in the number of parameters and improved generalization, and iii) we propose architectural improvements to the backbone FNO. Our approach can be used in any operator learning setting. We demonstrate superior performance on the turbulent Navier-Stokes equations where we achieve less than half the error with over 150x compression. The tensorization combined with the domain decomposition, yields over 150x reduction in the number of parameters and 7x reduction in the domain size without losses in accuracy, while slightly enabling parallelism.

Broadband Ground Motion Synthesis via Generative Adversarial Neural Operators: Development and Validation

We present a data-driven model for ground-motion synthesis using a Generative Adversarial Neural Operator (GANO) that combines recent advancements in machine learning and open access strong motion data sets to generate three-component acceleration time histories conditioned on moment magnitude ($M$), rupture distance ($R_{rup}$), time-average shear-wave velocity at the top $30m$ ($V_{S30}$), and tectonic environment or style of faulting. We use Neural Operators, a resolution invariant architecture that guarantees that the model training is independent of the data sampling frequency. We first present the conditional ground-motion synthesis algorithm (referred to heretofore as cGM-GANO) and discuss its advantages compared to previous work. Next, we verify the cGM-GANO framework using simulated ground motions generated with the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) Broadband Platform (BBP). We lastly train cGM-GANO on a KiK-net dataset from Japan, showing that the framework can recover the magnitude, distance, and $V_{S30}$ scaling of Fourier amplitude and pseudo-spectral accelerations. We evaluate cGM-GANO through residual analysis with the empirical dataset as well as by comparison with conventional Ground Motion Models (GMMs) for selected ground motion scenarios. Results show that cGM-GANO produces consistent median scaling with the GMMs for the corresponding tectonic environments. The largest misfit is observed at short distances due to the scarcity of training data. With the exception of short distances, the aleatory variability of the response spectral ordinates is also well captured, especially for subduction events due to the adequacy of training data. Applications of the presented framework include generation of risk-targeted ground motions for site-specific engineering applications.

Geometry-Informed Neural Operator for Large-Scale 3D PDEs

We propose the geometry-informed neural operator (GINO), a highly efficient approach to learning the solution operator of large-scale partial differential equations with varying geometries. GINO uses a signed distance function and point-cloud representations of the input shape and neural operators based on graph and Fourier architectures to learn the solution operator. The graph neural operator handles irregular grids and transforms them into and from regular latent grids on which Fourier neural operator can be efficiently applied. GINO is discretization-convergent, meaning the trained model can be applied to arbitrary discretization of the continuous domain and it converges to the continuum operator as the discretization is refined. To empirically validate the performance of our method on large-scale simulation, we generate the industry-standard aerodynamics dataset of 3D vehicle geometries with Reynolds numbers as high as five million. For this large-scale 3D fluid simulation, numerical methods are expensive to compute surface pressure. We successfully trained GINO to predict the pressure on car surfaces using only five hundred data points. The cost-accuracy experiments show a $26,000 \times$ speed-up compared to optimized GPU-based computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulators on computing the drag coefficient. When tested on new combinations of geometries and boundary conditions (inlet velocities), GINO obtains a one-fourth reduction in error rate compared to deep neural network approaches.