A Demonstration of Adaptive Collaboration of Large Language Models for Medical Decision-Making

Medical Decision-Making (MDM) is a multi-faceted process that requires clinicians to assess complex multi-modal patient data patient, often collaboratively. Large Language Models (LLMs) promise to streamline this process by synthesizing vast medical knowledge and multi-modal health data. However, single-agent are often ill-suited for nuanced medical contexts requiring adaptable, collaborative problem-solving. Our MDAgents addresses this need by dynamically assigning collaboration structures to LLMs based on task complexity, mimicking real-world clinical collaboration and decision-making. This framework improves diagnostic accuracy and supports adaptive responses in complex, real-world medical scenarios, making it a valuable tool for clinicians in various healthcare settings, and at the same time, being more efficient in terms of computing cost than static multi-agent decision making methods.

SympCam: Remote Optical Measurement of Sympathetic Arousal

Recent work has shown that a person's sympathetic arousal can be estimated from facial videos alone using basic signal processing. This opens up new possibilities in the field of telehealth and stress management, providing a non-invasive method to measure stress only using a regular RGB camera. In this paper, we present SympCam, a new 3D convolutional architecture tailored to the task of remote sympathetic arousal prediction. Our model incorporates a temporal attention module (TAM) to enhance the temporal coherence of our sequential data processing capabilities. The predictions from our method improve accuracy metrics of sympathetic arousal in prior work by 48% to a mean correlation of 0.77. We additionally compare our method with common remote photoplethysmography (rPPG) networks and show that they alone cannot accurately predict sympathetic arousal "out-of-the-box". Furthermore, we show that the sympathetic arousal predicted by our method allows detecting physical stress with a balanced accuracy of 90% - an improvement of 61% compared to the rPPG method commonly used in related work, demonstrating the limitations of using rPPG alone. Finally, we contribute a dataset designed explicitly for the task of remote sympathetic arousal prediction. Our dataset contains synchronized face and hand videos of 20 participants from two cameras synchronized with electrodermal activity (EDA) and photoplethysmography (PPG) measurements. We will make this dataset available to the community and use it to evaluate the methods in this paper. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first dataset available to other researchers designed for remote sympathetic arousal prediction.

Scaling Wearable Foundation Models

Wearable sensors have become ubiquitous thanks to a variety of health tracking features. The resulting continuous and longitudinal measurements from everyday life generate large volumes of data; however, making sense of these observations for scientific and actionable insights is non-trivial. Inspired by the empirical success of generative modeling, where large neural networks learn powerful representations from vast amounts of text, image, video, or audio data, we investigate the scaling properties of sensor foundation models across compute, data, and model size. Using a dataset of up to 40 million hours of in-situ heart rate, heart rate variability, electrodermal activity, accelerometer, skin temperature, and altimeter per-minute data from over 165,000 people, we create LSM, a multimodal foundation model built on the largest wearable-signals dataset with the most extensive range of sensor modalities to date. Our results establish the scaling laws of LSM for tasks such as imputation, interpolation and extrapolation, both across time and sensor modalities. Moreover, we highlight how LSM enables sample-efficient downstream learning for tasks like exercise and activity recognition.

Evidence of Cognitive Deficits andDevelopmental Advances in Generative AI: A Clock Drawing Test Analysis

Generative AI's rapid advancement sparks interest in its cognitive abilities, especially given its capacity for tasks like language understanding and code generation. This study explores how several recent GenAI models perform on the Clock Drawing Test (CDT), a neuropsychological assessment of visuospatial planning and organization. While models create clock-like drawings, they struggle with accurate time representation, showing deficits similar to mild-severe cognitive impairment (Wechsler, 2009). Errors include numerical sequencing issues, incorrect clock times, and irrelevant additions, despite accurate rendering of clock features. Only GPT 4 Turbo and Gemini Pro 1.5 produced the correct time, scoring like healthy individuals (4/4). A follow-up clock-reading test revealed only Sonnet 3.5 succeeded, suggesting drawing deficits stem from difficulty with numerical concepts. These findings may reflect weaknesses in visual-spatial understanding, working memory, or calculation, highlighting strengths in learned knowledge but weaknesses in reasoning. Comparing human and machine performance is crucial for understanding AI's cognitive capabilities and guiding development toward human-like cognitive functions.

The Cognitive Capabilities of Generative AI: A Comparative Analysis with Human Benchmarks

There is increasing interest in tracking the capabilities of general intelligence foundation models. This study benchmarks leading large language models and vision language models against human performance on the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale (WAIS-IV), a comprehensive, population-normed assessment of underlying human cognition and intellectual abilities, with a focus on the domains of VerbalComprehension (VCI), Working Memory (WMI), and Perceptual Reasoning (PRI). Most models demonstrated exceptional capabilities in the storage, retrieval, and manipulation of tokens such as arbitrary sequences of letters and numbers, with performance on the Working Memory Index (WMI) greater or equal to the 99.5th percentile when compared to human population normative ability. Performance on the Verbal Comprehension Index (VCI) which measures retrieval of acquired information, and linguistic understanding about the meaning of words and their relationships to each other, also demonstrated consistent performance at or above the 98th percentile. Despite these broad strengths, we observed consistently poor performance on the Perceptual Reasoning Index (PRI; range 0.1-10th percentile) from multimodal models indicating profound inability to interpret and reason on visual information. Smaller and older model versions consistently performed worse, indicating that training data, parameter count and advances in tuning are resulting in significant advances in cognitive ability.

Global atmospheric data assimilation with multi-modal masked autoencoders

Global data assimilation enables weather forecasting at all scales and provides valuable data for studying the Earth system. However, the computational demands of physics-based algorithms used in operational systems limits the volume and diversity of observations that are assimilated. Here, we present "EarthNet", a multi-modal foundation model for data assimilation that learns to predict a global gap-filled atmospheric state solely from satellite observations. EarthNet is trained as a masked autoencoder that ingests a 12 hour sequence of observations and learns to fill missing data from other sensors. We show that EarthNet performs a form of data assimilation producing a global 0.16 degree reanalysis dataset of 3D atmospheric temperature and humidity at a fraction of the time compared to operational systems. It is shown that the resulting reanalysis dataset reproduces climatology by evaluating a 1 hour forecast background state against observations. We also show that our 3D humidity predictions outperform MERRA-2 and ERA5 reanalyses by 10% to 60% between the middle troposphere and lower stratosphere (5 to 20 km altitude) and our 3D temperature and humidity are statistically equivalent to the Microwave integrated Retrieval System (MiRS) observations at nearly every level of the atmosphere. Our results indicate significant promise in using EarthNet for high-frequency data assimilation and global weather forecasting.

The Responsible Foundation Model Development Cheatsheet: A Review of Tools & Resources

Foundation model development attracts a rapidly expanding body of contributors, scientists, and applications. To help shape responsible development practices, we introduce the Foundation Model Development Cheatsheet: a growing collection of 250+ tools and resources spanning text, vision, and speech modalities. We draw on a large body of prior work to survey resources (e.g. software, documentation, frameworks, guides, and practical tools) that support informed data selection, processing, and understanding, precise and limitation-aware artifact documentation, efficient model training, advance awareness of the environmental impact from training, careful model evaluation of capabilities, risks, and claims, as well as responsible model release, licensing and deployment practices. We hope this curated collection of resources helps guide more responsible development. The process of curating this list, enabled us to review the AI development ecosystem, revealing what tools are critically missing, misused, or over-used in existing practices. We find that (i) tools for data sourcing, model evaluation, and monitoring are critically under-serving ethical and real-world needs, (ii) evaluations for model safety, capabilities, and environmental impact all lack reproducibility and transparency, (iii) text and particularly English-centric analyses continue to dominate over multilingual and multi-modal analyses, and (iv) evaluation of systems, rather than just models, is needed so that capabilities and impact are assessed in context.

What Are the Odds? Language Models Are Capable of Probabilistic Reasoning

Language models (LM) are capable of remarkably complex linguistic tasks; however, numerical reasoning is an area in which they frequently struggle. An important but rarely evaluated form of reasoning is understanding probability distributions. In this paper, we focus on evaluating the probabilistic reasoning capabilities of LMs using idealized and real-world statistical distributions. We perform a systematic evaluation of state-of-the-art LMs on three tasks: estimating percentiles, drawing samples, and calculating probabilities. We evaluate three ways to provide context to LMs 1) anchoring examples from within a distribution or family of distributions, 2) real-world context, 3) summary statistics on which to base a Normal approximation. Models can make inferences about distributions, and can be further aided by the incorporation of real-world context, example shots and simplified assumptions, even if these assumptions are incorrect or misspecified. To conduct this work, we developed a comprehensive benchmark distribution dataset with associated question-answer pairs that we will release publicly.

Transforming Wearable Data into Health Insights using Large Language Model Agents

Despite the proliferation of wearable health trackers and the importance of sleep and exercise to health, deriving actionable personalized insights from wearable data remains a challenge because doing so requires non-trivial open-ended analysis of these data. The recent rise of large language model (LLM) agents, which can use tools to reason about and interact with the world, presents a promising opportunity to enable such personalized analysis at scale. Yet, the application of LLM agents in analyzing personal health is still largely untapped. In this paper, we introduce the Personal Health Insights Agent (PHIA), an agent system that leverages state-of-the-art code generation and information retrieval tools to analyze and interpret behavioral health data from wearables. We curate two benchmark question-answering datasets of over 4000 health insights questions. Based on 650 hours of human and expert evaluation we find that PHIA can accurately address over 84% of factual numerical questions and more than 83% of crowd-sourced open-ended questions. This work has implications for advancing behavioral health across the population, potentially enabling individuals to interpret their own wearable data, and paving the way for a new era of accessible, personalized wellness regimens that are informed by data-driven insights.

Towards a Personal Health Large Language Model

In health, most large language model (LLM) research has focused on clinical tasks. However, mobile and wearable devices, which are rarely integrated into such tasks, provide rich, longitudinal data for personal health monitoring. Here we present Personal Health Large Language Model (PH-LLM), fine-tuned from Gemini for understanding and reasoning over numerical time-series personal health data. We created and curated three datasets that test 1) production of personalized insights and recommendations from sleep patterns, physical activity, and physiological responses, 2) expert domain knowledge, and 3) prediction of self-reported sleep outcomes. For the first task we designed 857 case studies in collaboration with domain experts to assess real-world scenarios in sleep and fitness. Through comprehensive evaluation of domain-specific rubrics, we observed that Gemini Ultra 1.0 and PH-LLM are not statistically different from expert performance in fitness and, while experts remain superior for sleep, fine-tuning PH-LLM provided significant improvements in using relevant domain knowledge and personalizing information for sleep insights. We evaluated PH-LLM domain knowledge using multiple choice sleep medicine and fitness examinations. PH-LLM achieved 79% on sleep and 88% on fitness, exceeding average scores from a sample of human experts. Finally, we trained PH-LLM to predict self-reported sleep quality outcomes from textual and multimodal encoding representations of wearable data, and demonstrate that multimodal encoding is required to match performance of specialized discriminative models. Although further development and evaluation are necessary in the safety-critical personal health domain, these results demonstrate both the broad knowledge and capabilities of Gemini models and the benefit of contextualizing physiological data for personal health applications as done with PH-LLM.