Evaluating World Models with LLM for Decision Making

World model emerges as a key module in decision making, where MuZero and Dreamer achieve remarkable successes in complex tasks. Recent work leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) as general world simulators to simulate the dynamics of the world due to their generalizability. LLMs also serve as the world model for deliberative reasoning in Reasoning via Planning (RAP) and Tree of Thought (ToT). However, the world models are either evaluated as a general world simulator, or as a functional module of the agent, i.e., predicting the transitions to assist the planning. In this work, we propose a comprehensive evaluation of the world models with LLMs from the decision making perspective. Specifically, we leverage the 31 diverse environments from (Wang et al., 2023;2024) and curate the rule-based policy of each environment for the diverse evaluation. Then, we design three main tasks, i.e., policy verification, action proposal, and policy planning, where the world models can be used for decision making solely. Finally, we conduct the comprehensive evaluation of the advanced LLMs, i.e., GPT-4o and GPT-4o-mini, on the environments for the three main tasks under various settings. The key observations include: i) GPT-4o significantly outperforms GPT-4o-mini on the three main tasks, especially for the tasks which require the domain knowledge, ii) the performance of the world model with LLM will be decreased for long-term decision-making tasks, and iii) the combination of different functionalities of the world model will brings additional unstabilities of the performance.

CLR-Bench: Evaluating Large Language Models in College-level Reasoning

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated their remarkable performance across various language understanding tasks. While emerging benchmarks have been proposed to evaluate LLMs in various domains such as mathematics and computer science, they merely measure the accuracy in terms of the final prediction on multi-choice questions. However, it remains insufficient to verify the essential understanding of LLMs given a chosen choice. To fill this gap, we present CLR-Bench to comprehensively evaluate the LLMs in complex college-level reasoning. Specifically, (i) we prioritize 16 challenging college disciplines in computer science and artificial intelligence. The dataset contains 5 types of questions, while each question is associated with detailed explanations from experts. (ii) To quantify a fair evaluation of LLMs' reasoning ability, we formalize the criteria with two novel metrics. Q$\rightarrow$A is utilized to measure the performance of direct answer prediction, and Q$\rightarrow$AR effectively considers the joint ability to answer the question and provide rationale simultaneously. Extensive experiments are conducted with 40 LLMs over 1,018 discipline-specific questions. The results demonstrate the key insights that LLMs, even the best closed-source LLM, i.e., GPT-4 turbo, tend to `guess' the college-level answers. It shows a dramatic decrease in accuracy from 63.31% Q$\rightarrow$A to 39.00% Q$\rightarrow$AR, indicating an unsatisfactory reasoning ability.

Double Oracle Neural Architecture Search for Game Theoretic Deep Learning Models

In this paper, we propose a new approach to train deep learning models using game theory concepts including Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) and Adversarial Training (AT) where we deploy a double-oracle framework using best response oracles. GAN is essentially a two-player zero-sum game between the generator and the discriminator. The same concept can be applied to AT with attacker and classifier as players. Training these models is challenging as a pure Nash equilibrium may not exist and even finding the mixed Nash equilibrium is difficult as training algorithms for both GAN and AT have a large-scale strategy space. Extending our preliminary model DO-GAN, we propose the methods to apply the double oracle framework concept to Adversarial Neural Architecture Search (NAS for GAN) and Adversarial Training (NAS for AT) algorithms. We first generalize the players' strategies as the trained models of generator and discriminator from the best response oracles. We then compute the meta-strategies using a linear program. For scalability of the framework where multiple network models of best responses are stored in the memory, we prune the weakly-dominated players' strategies to keep the oracles from becoming intractable. Finally, we conduct experiments on MNIST, CIFAR-10 and TinyImageNet for DONAS-GAN. We also evaluate the robustness under FGSM and PGD attacks on CIFAR-10, SVHN and TinyImageNet for DONAS-AT. We show that all our variants have significant improvements in both subjective qualitative evaluation and quantitative metrics, compared with their respective base architectures.

Resultant: Incremental Effectiveness on Likelihood for Unsupervised Out-of-Distribution Detection

Unsupervised out-of-distribution (U-OOD) detection is to identify OOD data samples with a detector trained solely on unlabeled in-distribution (ID) data. The likelihood function estimated by a deep generative model (DGM) could be a natural detector, but its performance is limited in some popular "hard" benchmarks, such as FashionMNIST (ID) vs. MNIST (OOD). Recent studies have developed various detectors based on DGMs to move beyond likelihood. However, despite their success on "hard" benchmarks, most of them struggle to consistently surpass or match the performance of likelihood on some "non-hard" cases, such as SVHN (ID) vs. CIFAR10 (OOD) where likelihood could be a nearly perfect detector. Therefore, we appeal for more attention to incremental effectiveness on likelihood, i.e., whether a method could always surpass or at least match the performance of likelihood in U-OOD detection. We first investigate the likelihood of variational DGMs and find its detection performance could be improved in two directions: i) alleviating latent distribution mismatch, and ii) calibrating the dataset entropy-mutual integration. Then, we apply two techniques for each direction, specifically post-hoc prior and dataset entropy-mutual calibration. The final method, named Resultant, combines these two directions for better incremental effectiveness compared to either technique alone. Experimental results demonstrate that the Resultant could be a new state-of-the-art U-OOD detector while maintaining incremental effectiveness on likelihood in a wide range of tasks.

In-Context Exploiter for Extensive-Form Games

Nash equilibrium (NE) is a widely adopted solution concept in game theory due to its stability property. However, we observe that the NE strategy might not always yield the best results, especially against opponents who do not adhere to NE strategies. Based on this observation, we pose a new game-solving question: Can we learn a model that can exploit any, even NE, opponent to maximize their own utility? In this work, we make the first attempt to investigate this problem through in-context learning. Specifically, we introduce a novel method, In-Context Exploiter (ICE), to train a single model that can act as any player in the game and adaptively exploit opponents entirely by in-context learning. Our ICE algorithm involves generating diverse opponent strategies, collecting interactive history training data by a reinforcement learning algorithm, and training a transformer-based agent within a well-designed curriculum learning framework. Finally, comprehensive experimental results validate the effectiveness of our ICE algorithm, showcasing its in-context learning ability to exploit any unknown opponent, thereby positively answering our initial game-solving question.

MacroHFT: Memory Augmented Context-aware Reinforcement Learning On High Frequency Trading

High-frequency trading (HFT) that executes algorithmic trading in short time scales, has recently occupied the majority of cryptocurrency market. Besides traditional quantitative trading methods, reinforcement learning (RL) has become another appealing approach for HFT due to its terrific ability of handling high-dimensional financial data and solving sophisticated sequential decision-making problems, \emph{e.g.,} hierarchical reinforcement learning (HRL) has shown its promising performance on second-level HFT by training a router to select only one sub-agent from the agent pool to execute the current transaction. However, existing RL methods for HFT still have some defects: 1) standard RL-based trading agents suffer from the overfitting issue, preventing them from making effective policy adjustments based on financial context; 2) due to the rapid changes in market conditions, investment decisions made by an individual agent are usually one-sided and highly biased, which might lead to significant loss in extreme markets. To tackle these problems, we propose a novel Memory Augmented Context-aware Reinforcement learning method On HFT, \emph{a.k.a.} MacroHFT, which consists of two training phases: 1) we first train multiple types of sub-agents with the market data decomposed according to various financial indicators, specifically market trend and volatility, where each agent owns a conditional adapter to adjust its trading policy according to market conditions; 2) then we train a hyper-agent to mix the decisions from these sub-agents and output a consistently profitable meta-policy to handle rapid market fluctuations, equipped with a memory mechanism to enhance the capability of decision-making. Extensive experiments on various cryptocurrency markets demonstrate that MacroHFT can achieve state-of-the-art performance on minute-level trading tasks.

Configurable Mirror Descent: Towards a Unification of Decision Making

Decision-making problems, categorized as single-agent, e.g., Atari, cooperative multi-agent, e.g., Hanabi, competitive multi-agent, e.g., Hold'em poker, and mixed cooperative and competitive, e.g., football, are ubiquitous in the real world. Various methods are proposed to address the specific decision-making problems. Despite the successes in specific categories, these methods typically evolve independently and cannot generalize to other categories. Therefore, a fundamental question for decision-making is: \emph{Can we develop \textbf{a single algorithm} to tackle \textbf{ALL} categories of decision-making problems?} There are several main challenges to address this question: i) different decision-making categories involve different numbers of agents and different relationships between agents, ii) different categories have different solution concepts and evaluation measures, and iii) there lacks a comprehensive benchmark covering all the categories. This work presents a preliminary attempt to address the question with three main contributions. i) We propose the generalized mirror descent (GMD), a generalization of MD variants, which considers multiple historical policies and works with a broader class of Bregman divergences. ii) We propose the configurable mirror descent (CMD) where a meta-controller is introduced to dynamically adjust the hyper-parameters in GMD conditional on the evaluation measures. iii) We construct the \textsc{GameBench} with 15 academic-friendly games across different decision-making categories. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CMD achieves empirically competitive or better outcomes compared to baselines while providing the capability of exploring diverse dimensions of decision making.

Grasper: A Generalist Pursuer for Pursuit-Evasion Problems

Pursuit-evasion games (PEGs) model interactions between a team of pursuers and an evader in graph-based environments such as urban street networks. Recent advancements have demonstrated the effectiveness of the pre-training and fine-tuning paradigm in PSRO to improve scalability in solving large-scale PEGs. However, these methods primarily focus on specific PEGs with fixed initial conditions that may vary substantially in real-world scenarios, which significantly hinders the applicability of the traditional methods. To address this issue, we introduce Grasper, a GeneRAlist purSuer for Pursuit-Evasion pRoblems, capable of efficiently generating pursuer policies tailored to specific PEGs. Our contributions are threefold: First, we present a novel architecture that offers high-quality solutions for diverse PEGs, comprising critical components such as (i) a graph neural network (GNN) to encode PEGs into hidden vectors, and (ii) a hypernetwork to generate pursuer policies based on these hidden vectors. As a second contribution, we develop an efficient three-stage training method involving (i) a pre-pretraining stage for learning robust PEG representations through self-supervised graph learning techniques like GraphMAE, (ii) a pre-training stage utilizing heuristic-guided multi-task pre-training (HMP) where heuristic-derived reference policies (e.g., through Dijkstra's algorithm) regularize pursuer policies, and (iii) a fine-tuning stage that employs PSRO to generate pursuer policies on designated PEGs. Finally, we perform extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world maps, showcasing Grasper's significant superiority over baselines in terms of solution quality and generalizability. We demonstrate that Grasper provides a versatile approach for solving pursuit-evasion problems across a broad range of scenarios, enabling practical deployment in real-world situations.

Self-adaptive PSRO: Towards an Automatic Population-based Game Solver

Policy-Space Response Oracles (PSRO) as a general algorithmic framework has achieved state-of-the-art performance in learning equilibrium policies of two-player zero-sum games. However, the hand-crafted hyperparameter value selection in most of the existing works requires extensive domain knowledge, forming the main barrier to applying PSRO to different games. In this work, we make the first attempt to investigate the possibility of self-adaptively determining the optimal hyperparameter values in the PSRO framework. Our contributions are three-fold: (1) Using several hyperparameters, we propose a parametric PSRO that unifies the gradient descent ascent (GDA) and different PSRO variants. (2) We propose the self-adaptive PSRO (SPSRO) by casting the hyperparameter value selection of the parametric PSRO as a hyperparameter optimization (HPO) problem where our objective is to learn an HPO policy that can self-adaptively determine the optimal hyperparameter values during the running of the parametric PSRO. (3) To overcome the poor performance of online HPO methods, we propose a novel offline HPO approach to optimize the HPO policy based on the Transformer architecture. Experiments on various two-player zero-sum games demonstrate the superiority of SPSRO over different baselines.

AgentStudio: A Toolkit for Building General Virtual Agents

Creating autonomous virtual agents capable of using arbitrary software on any digital device remains a major challenge for artificial intelligence. Two key obstacles hinder progress: insufficient infrastructure for building virtual agents in real-world environments, and the need for in-the-wild evaluation of fundamental agent abilities. To address this, we introduce AgentStudio, an online, realistic, and multimodal toolkit that covers the entire lifecycle of agent development. This includes environment setups, data collection, agent evaluation, and visualization. The observation and action spaces are highly generic, supporting both function calling and human-computer interfaces. This versatility is further enhanced by AgentStudio's graphical user interfaces, which allow efficient development of datasets and benchmarks in real-world settings. To illustrate, we introduce a visual grounding dataset and a real-world benchmark suite, both created with our graphical interfaces. Furthermore, we present several actionable insights derived from AgentStudio, e.g., general visual grounding, open-ended tool creation, learning from videos, etc. We have open-sourced the environments, datasets, benchmarks, and interfaces to promote research towards developing general virtual agents for the future.